Philly Fed Plunges To 8 Months Low As Great Unrecovery Continues

Tyler Durden's picture

The great unrecovery just accelerated with more great unrotation out of stocks following today's February Philly Fed which just plunged from -5.8 to -12.5 on expectations of a positive print of +1. This was the worst print in 8 months, the biggest miss in 9 months, and the biggest two month drop in the New Orders index which crashed to -7.8 in 18 months. Even the attempts at spin were weak: "The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion  index of current activity, decreased from a reading -5.8 in January to -12.5 this month (see Chart). The demand for manufactured goods also showed slight declines this month: The new orders index declined from a reading of -4.3 in January to -7.8 in February. Despite negative readings for general activity and new orders, the shipments index showed improvement: The index remained positive and edged slightly higher to 2.4. The percentage of firms reporting increased shipments (25 percent) was slightly greater than the percentage reporting declines (22 percent)." But fear not: optimism abounds - after all, that's all there is: "The survey’s future indicators suggest that firms expect recent declines to be temporary." Oddly enough survey participants have been hoping for a brighter future for 4 years now. Expect the sellside penguins to say that this number too should be ignored, just like the initial claims earlier, and the new housing starts yesterday. After all one should ignore all data that does not fit the goalseeked script of a centrally-mandated "recovery."

Finally, if and when the market finally syncs up with the Diffusion index reality, things will get ugly.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
spastic_colon's picture

slightly O/T..........if PAY is any indication of global consumer activity then watchout below

GetZeeGold's picture



Well which is it...banning assault rifles...or a good economy?

dwdollar's picture

Damn Ben, that sucks man! So close to all time highs! Nothing QE5 can't fix... right?

You may be right. America may just be bipolar enough to switch from depression to elation when you break all time highs... but I wouldn't stake my reputation on it like you have. Good luck bro.

new game's picture

can we have one without the other?

adr's picture

Pay? You don't need to be paid. That's what credit cards are for. Work? You don't need to work that's what Obamacards are for.

spastic_colon's picture

agreed........and PAY as in Verifone

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Beating expectations" - all... the... way... down...

Time for some channel stuffing.

fonzannoon's picture

Look at walmart stock today. Every dip and any dip is bought. The fed is never going away. The good news is it only takes the markets about an hour to figure that out now. Now watch all the monkeys get in there and buy.

McMolotov's picture

At what point do people stop paying attention to this shit and start acknowledging the reality that we're fucked? I know you always say it'll take the supply chains breaking to wake people up, but I'd hope at least half the herd in this country would wake up before then and get themselves somewhat prepared. Otherwise it'll be absolute chaos when the SHTF.

I do what I can to educate the people around me, but it's exhausting. It seems to go in one ear and out the other, and as much as I'd like to say I've made progress with some of them, it hasn't made them change their behavior in any meaningful way. Thinking everything could fall apart is one thing; believing that and preparing yourself is another. It just seems most people view preparation as the final act one takes before fully embracing the "fringe," and they're not willing to go that far because they're too stuck in the herd mentality and don't want to be seen as outcasts.

I guess my question is this: Are we really going to "beat expectations all the way down" without most of the people calling out all the bullshit? Because that just depresses the hell out of me.

fomcy's picture

Wait, but just yesterday Bernank said economy improves? Guess not,

need to print even more..

adr's picture

Orders, we don't need no stinkin orders!!!

The entire economy has become a bad pun. There really isn't anthing left but to make fun of it. Trying to make money the productive way has become a comedy.

Irelevant's picture

And you can get the printer from China

You see, everybody can do it, but its legal only when the CB`s do it.

I have no idea when we agreed that we can be forced in accepting pices of paper as a store of value and be paid in pices of paper for the fruits of our labour.

scatterbrains's picture

for realz.. we have the NRA for guns. Where's the NRA organization that defends real money and to force legislation that allows the store/exchange/barter/loan of gold and silver (real money) as per the constitution ?  Let a nigga store his savings in gold and tap short term loans against those hard savings free of prosecution and shit will go parabolic.

Irelevant's picture


Desert Irish's picture

How's that Hope and Change working out for you Barry? 

madcows's picture

Good For HOBama, not so good for America.

Fear not, though.  It will all come crashing down soon enough.

Cursive's picture

The financial world needs more ZH, less CNBS.

Desert Irish's picture

Sounds of heads exploding....Not going to happen anytime soon

Smuckers's picture

Jawbone to smash PMs, then release shit news to "reverse" course and have reason to resume the printer.
Coronation Street is tougher to guess on what will happen next.

firstdivision's picture

We have some new QE on the way

Russia’s Missing Billions Revealed (FT)
Russia’s central bank governor has lifted the lid on $49 billion in illegal capital flight – more than half of which, he says, is controlled “by one well-organized group of individuals” that he declined to name. Sergei Ignatiev, due to step down in June after 11 years in his post, is seldom outspoken about any issue other than interest rates. But he unburdened himself in an interview with the Moscow newspaper Vedomosti about money leaving the country through the back door, which he said equaled 2.5 percent of gross domestic product last year. “This might be payment for supplies of narcotics…illegal imports…bribes and kickbacks for bureaucrats…and avoiding taxes,” he told the daily, which is part-owned by the Financial Times.

10PastMidnight's picture

what, they lied to me again?

Caracalla's picture

Where's the Plunge Protection Team today, lol

azzhatter's picture

Jim "asswipe" Cramer- This is largely irrelevant, pay no attention to this number


2 years ago when the number was rising


Jim "asswipe" Cramer- This is a really important number, this shows the recovery is real


Couldn't make this shit up

WoodMizer's picture

I was thinking that yesterday's 1% selloff was Wallstreet putting up a front for Washington's future can kick.  Now I am starting to think tiat it might have been a Philly fed leak to insiders.

 Notice how this morning's slide was halted right after the bad news hit the wire, seems like all the big boys knew this was coming. Either the Philly numbers were yesterday's news or the silencing of fed hawkes is tomorrow's news.

It is hard to figure out who is in the driver's seat since the merger of Government and Wall Street.

Desert Irish's picture

A merger would imply a collaboration of equells, in this case it's Wall Street ass-raping it's willing bitch. No question who's in the driver seat here and Main Street is road kill.

pods's picture

It is a merger.  Government is not the people.

Wall Street has to buy the debt that the government needs to sell.

That is the benefit.  Without the government, there would be no FED.  Without the FED, there would be no government.  Well, one we would recognize right about now.


bugs_'s picture

Yes.  Nobody expects the Philly Fed Leak - except the insiders.

fonzannoon's picture

Poor sprott. He learned from one of his clients that palladium and platinum exist and then went on to recommend them as his two favorite metals this year. They have since been obliterated. Poor guy.

buzzsaw99's picture

gold is up a buck so the manipulation has stopped (for now) lulz lulz lulz

fonzannoon's picture

This shit data has helped price in QE6. Bullish for stocks. Same as it ever was.

gjp's picture

Yep - they're out there buying oversold and undervalued names like AMZN and LNKD, leading the way higher from this difficult correction we've undergone.

HeatMiser's picture

February Philly Fed which just plunged from -5.8 to -12.5 on expectations of a positive print of +1. Can somebody please tell me who the ASSHOLE is that had an expectation of a positive print and what information he is looking.

azzhatter's picture

It was Jim Cramer, he came up with it while masturbating to a picture of Warren Buffett

Notarocketscientist's picture

While Santelli licks his ass (fantasizing that he is really like Buffetts saggy old ass)

ziggy59's picture

The BSers always cherry pick the data and their linguistics to fit their mood.

MoneyThangs's picture

This must be what 2008 felt like. Never seen sucha a severe sell off in my life. Hope they print more money soon

Colonel Klink's picture

Don't forget the Ununited States of Amurika either.  I believe we're seeing the uncoupling of the states following of many federal policies.  Who knows, maybe even one will have the balls to challenge the current corrupt regime.

Stuart's picture

In a political economy as we have, printed money will bully the market higher against all common sense and fundamental reason.   As Greenspan said, the Stock Market is what's important now.  The political powers will move heaven and earth to keep it marching higher, not giving a damn who sees them doing it.   Their challenge to everyone else is, "what are you going to do about it".  

Notarocketscientist's picture

What an absurd thing to say - so even if REAL unemployment goes to 30% instead of 20%.... even if GDP plunges to -5%... even if there are riots on the streets... as long as the stock market keeps on going up everthing is OK????? 

Someone needs to send Greenspan to the glue factory.

francis_sawyer's picture

The 'Recoveryless Recovery'

lizzy36's picture


Goldman and that idiot Belski, told me we are in the beginning of the great Cap-x run!

GolfHatesMe's picture

Looks like Kevin Henry got his 10:30 money

bnbdnb's picture

I'm retiring in about 30 years. Does anyone know of a stock that outperformed gold in that time frame?

slightlyskeptical's picture

Just about every stock that is still in business has outperformed Gold over the last 30 years.

Quinvarius's picture

What about the ones that are not in business?

bnbdnb's picture

And what percentage of those companies are still in business now?

azzhatter's picture

I would recommend that you buy a copy of "Invest Like Warren Buffett" by Charles Munger