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Where Do Stocks Go Next?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment except to note that US and European credit markets have been sending warning signals all year; whether they rally to meet stocks or stocks crack to credit's concerns is not for sure - though the truism that credit anticipates and equity confirms remains as prescient as ever. However, it appears the macro-economy is better reflected in credit and with the Fed suggesting its liquidity anxiety is rising, perhaps equities will recouple once again...

European credit (especially financials) have been horrible all year... equities began to catch down today...

 

but it is US equity markets that stand out in their ignorance (or crystal ball-like hope)...

 

The 'trade' appears to be convergence...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:21 | 3264069 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Up Bernanke's Ass!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:22 | 3264075 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Exactly.  What a douche BSB is.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 16:43 | 3264685 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

I, like Robert Prechter, am expecting a 99%+ collapse in the market:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2013/02/dow-14000-world-war-three.html

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:47 | 3264908 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

There's medication for this.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:07 | 3264964 Spirit Of Truth
Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:22 | 3264073 Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

buybuy baby, or is it, bye-bye baby, or perhaps even... "buh-bye!" baby....


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:45 | 3264142 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

by the time spx gets down to current level of HYG, HYG will be signaling another 80 points lower for spx.....

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:23 | 3264078 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

i say NAS no new high.

SP and DAX have a shot at it still in the form of a violent spike.

Either way whole complex is rolling over.. and that includes USD GBP USH3 and all the rest of it..

the "protracted top" as i call it

foreign markets look much better valuation wise

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:24 | 3264079 mayhem
mayhem's picture

margin call pressure soon, like short squeeze in reverse

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:24 | 3264081 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If credit could anticipate the 10yr would be at 11%.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:25 | 3264082 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I see 600 in the SPX's future.  Not tradeable, as it could hit 1600 or 6000 before 600.  It's paper money, afterall.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aq__eQe9xQ

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:34 | 3264108 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I see a few people who have no idea they are about to get cropdusted.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:25 | 3264084 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

credit anticipates? i think someone just called bond traders smart money. how can this be?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 16:13 | 3264530 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Because there are no bond traders except the Fed, and you don't fight the Fed. ;)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:26 | 3264086 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Depends, will there truly be a margin call?  Is there going to be a paradigm shift? Is this a "fourth turning"?  Will supply lines break?

 

I might not matter as in the scenarios above, all paper promises wil be of no value whatsoever.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:34 | 3264110 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Your comment in song form, from 1974.  Crystal Ball.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJz1ZaOtbiI

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:53 | 3264402 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Funny how all this shit come down to the trading of oil on a tiny island in the Persian Gulf.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kish_Island

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Oil_Bourse

Getting gas from a gas station here in the U.S. is going to be quite the motherfucker if that thing every really gets up and rolling.  

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:27 | 3264091 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You know what they say, "sell in Mid feb and do some coke".

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:33 | 3264106 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@fonzanoon

I literally LOL'd.  Thank you.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:35 | 3264116 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

funny I just replied to you up above.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:37 | 3264124 Boozer
Boozer's picture

Fonz, you are a wise man.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:18 | 3264243 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Finally, some sound advise.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:28 | 3264095 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Well the Fed is buying up stocks to make up the difference from the slump in US Credit.

The fed has unlimited credit.

so

The Fed Dictates the price of the stock market for as long as people have faith in the US Dollar.

 

 

The market goes down when people dump the dollar, the inflation will come first.

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 16:02 | 3264451 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I disagree, the market will go up (remember, it's priced nominally) when people dump the dollar.  

There are several entities buying up the dollar.  "Competitive devaluation"/managed decline in the value of all currencies.  They have to make it look like a real market, so the dollar has to have periods where it increases in relative value to other steaming piles of horsemeat shit laden wads of paper.  

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES

Tells the entire story.  

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 16:06 | 3264491 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Notice how the action in the past couple of weeks is nearly a carbon copy of what started happening in late March last year?  Last year it was "sell in May got moved up to April".  Well, it got moved up again this year. 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:30 | 3264096 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know where U.S stocks go next, but the Japanese finance minister said the NIKKEI is going to 13,000 before the year end. I believe it because he told me so. Too bad the Bernank won't tell us his year end target.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:53 | 3264926 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

When Japan implodes and Japanese government bonds collapse the money has flow somewhere. It will flow to either of these:

1. Nikkei equities (which is why the Nikkei may actually enter a bull market soon)

2. US dollars (because the reserve currency stinks less than the rest of worlds currency)

3. US equities (which is why a DOW upward trend may continue after this current correction ends)

4. Gold/silver

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:28 | 3264098 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

They need to reduce margin requirements to 1%. What the hell.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 16:26 | 3264100 darteaus
darteaus's picture

How many more signals does one need to dump stock and buy PM!?

 

  • Insider stock sales
  • Investor sentiment
  • Retail investors just got scalped
  • PM slammed prices down to 200 MDA and bouncing
  • Walmart, Foxconn & Catepillar sales
  • ISM index & unemployment divergance
  • Europe not fixed
  • Berlusconi going to be reelected
  • China tightening
  • and THE US ELECTION IS OVER
Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:33 | 3264107 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Where do stocks go next?  Answer: wherever Goldman and J P Morgan want them to go.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:37 | 3264122 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

^this^

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:20 | 3264253 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Wherever the HFT computers want them to go.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:40 | 3264347 Bon Hagar
Bon Hagar's picture

Where did MF Global go?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:58 | 3265115 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Jon can't remember.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:39 | 3264125 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Singularity, bitchez.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:43 | 3264138 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

up then down

rinse then repeat

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:45 | 3264141 razorthin
razorthin's picture

It's the pause that refreshes?  Or more appropriately, has someone opened the shit house door?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:46 | 3264145 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

They can go to Hell for all I care............

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:48 | 3264154 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

If everyone sells, except the banks, will the market still go down? What are the banks going to do with the $85B / mth?
Oh yeh - how is the Bernank going to "take profits" on the Fed's position?
Lotsa questions.......

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 14:59 | 3264176 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

If stocks are looking for somewhere to go and die, i have a huge pasture beside my house.  I will let them die here...I'll even help dig a shallow grave if needed...no charge.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:01 | 3264191 q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTFD

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:03 | 3264194 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Without QE there is no place but down for stocks.  BTFD died yesterday with the Fed minutes

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:14 | 3264223 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

If only. All it will take is one or two Fed Governors lieing through their teeth on one of the financial clown shows and it will be "RISK ON!"

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:35 | 3264281 fuu
fuu's picture

Someone yesterday predicted 2.5 Fed heads would be out today.

Williams is out and about today.(.5)

"I anticipate that purchases of mortgage-backed securities and longer-term Treasury securities will be needed well into the second half of this year," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to The Forecasters Club in New York."

Bullard is at as well.(1)

""We can continue for a while and then assess things as we go forward," he added. "But I would like to get the (Fed policy-setting) committee to react to incoming data and adjust the program to incoming data," whether it is decreasing or increasing purchases."

Fisher is doing interviews today too.(1)

"Mr. Fisher cautioned, however, that the Fed will not move quickly, saying "whether you're a hawk or a dove, no one on the committee wants to (end easy-policy) radically." A tapering of the policy, he said, would be a "sensible thing.""

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:04 | 3264196 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm seeing SPX 1332 next stop based on these satanic bitchezz running the show

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 15:23 | 3264268 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Where the hell is Million Dollar Baby when you need him? Time for somebody to tell us what a bunch of ignorant doomsayers we all are, etc. etc. and this is just a temporary 'breather' in the market that is forever going to be going up and up and awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 16:43 | 3264678 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Expand the time to 1 full year. 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:08 | 3264772 Manipulism
Manipulism's picture

Egybt?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:14 | 3264789 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Stocks only go up. BTFD

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:57 | 3265756 mkhs
mkhs's picture

With a name like that, the advice must be good.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:23 | 3264822 besnook
besnook's picture

the s and p is at a 15 year triple top nominally which means it is really worth less than half the 2000 high today measured by a conservative inflation estimate.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 13:34 | 3267393 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

Feels very '07ish difference is funds rate was high and Fed balance sheet was pristine. "Subprime is contained!"

 

Racing with the devil with yr shoe-laces tied together ...

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