• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Farewell Eng£AAAnd: Moody's Downgrades The UK From AAA To Aa1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And another AAA-club member quietly exits not with a bang but a whimper:

  • MOODY’S DOWNGRADES UK’S GOVERNMENT BOND RATING TO Aa1 FROM AAA

Someone must have clued Moody's on the fact that the UK is about to have its very own Goldman banker, which means consolidated debt/GDP will soon need four digits. In other news, every lawyer in the UK is now celebrating because come Monday Moody's will be sued to smithereens.

Cable not happy as it tests 31 month lows, which however also explains why the Moody's action has another name: accelerated cable devaluation. Those who heeded our call to short Cable when Goldman's Mark Carney was appointed are now 1000 pips richer. Also, please sacrifice a lamb at the altar of Goldman: It's the polite thing to do.

 

Full report below:

Moody's downgrades UK's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa; outlook is now stable
 
London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic- and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable.
 
The key interrelated drivers of today's action are:
 
1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second  half of the decade;
 
2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;
 
3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016.
 
At the same time, Moody's explains that the UK's creditworthiness remains extremely high, rated at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths. These include (i) a highly competitive, well-diversified economy; (ii) a strong track record of fiscal consolidation and a robust institutional structure; and (iii) a favourable debt structure, with supportive domestic demand for government debt, the longest average maturity structure (15 years) among all highly rated sovereigns globally and the resulting reduced interest rate risk on UK debt.
 
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating reflects Moody's expectation that a combination of political will and medium-term fundamental underlying economic strengths will, in time, allow the government to implement its fiscal consolidation plan and reverse the UK's debt trajectory. Moreover, although the UK's economy has considerable risk exposure through trade and financial linkages to a potential escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, its contagion risk is mitigated by the flexibility afforded by the UK's independent monetary policy framework and sterling's global reserve currency status.

In a related rating action, Moody's has today also downgraded the ratings of the Bank of England to Aa1 from Aaa. The issuer's P-1 rating is unaffected by this rating action. The rating outlook for this entity is now also stable.
 
RATINGS RATIONALE
 
The main driver underpinning Moody's decision to downgrade the UK's government bond rating to Aa1 is the increasing clarity that, despite considerable structural economic strengths, the UK's economic growth will remain sluggish over the next few years due to the anticipated slow growth of the global economy and the drag on the UK economy from the ongoing domestic public- and private-sector deleveraging process. Moody's says that the country's current economic recovery has already proven to be significantly slower -- and believes that it will likely remain so -- compared with the recovery observed after previous recessions, such as those of the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, while the government's recent Funding for Lending Scheme has the potential to support a surge in growth, Moody's believes the risks to the growth outlook remain skewed to the downside.
 
The sluggish growth environment in turn poses an increasing challenge to the government's fiscal consolidation efforts, which represents the second driver informing Moody's one-notch downgrade of the UK's sovereign rating. When Moody's changed the outlook on the UK's rating to negative in February 2012, the rating agency cited concerns over the increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation due to materially weaker growth prospects, which contributed to higher than previously expected projections for the deficit, and consequently also an expected  ise in the debt burden. Moody's now expects that the UK's gross general government debt level will peak at just over 96% of GDP in 2016. The rating agency says that it would have expected it to peak at a higher level if the government had not reduced its debt stock by transferring funds from the Asset Purchase Facility -- which will equal to roughly 3.7% of GDP in total -- as announced in November 2012.
 
More specifically, projected tax revenue increases have been difficult to achieve in the UK due to the challenging economic environment. As a result, the weaker economic outturn has substantially slowed the anticipated pace of deficit and debt-to-GDP reduction, and is likely to continue to do so over the medium term. After it was elected in 2010, the government outlined a fiscal consolidation programme that would run through this parliament's five-year term and place the net public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining trajectory by the 2015-16 financial year. (Although it was not one of the government's targets, Moody's had expected the UK's gross general government debt -- a key debt metric in the rating agency's analysis -- to start declining in the 2014-15 financial year.) Now, however, the government has announced that fiscal consolidation will extend into the next parliament, which necessarily makes their implementation less certain.
 
Taken together, the slower-than-expected recovery, the higher debt load and the policy uncertainties combine to form the third driver of today's rating action -- namely, the erosion of the shock-absorption capacity of the UK's balance sheet. Moody's believes that the mounting debt levels in a low-growth environment have impaired the sovereign's ability to contain and quickly reverse the impact of adverse economic or financial shocks. For example, given the pace of deficit and debt reduction that Moody's has observed since 2010, there is a risk that the UK government may not be able to reverse the debt trajectory before the next economic shock or cyclical downturn in the economy.
 
In summary, although the UK's debt-servicing capacity remains very strong and very capable of withstanding further adverse economic and financial shocks, it does not at present possess the extraordinary resilience common to other Aaa-rated issuers.
 
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
 
The stable outlook on the UK's Aa1 sovereign rating partly reflects the strengths that underpin the Aa1 rating itself -- the underlying economic strength and fiscal policy commitment which Moody's expects will ultimately allow the UK government to reverse the debt trajectory. The stable outlook is also an indication of the fact that Moody's does not expect further additional material deterioration in the UK's economic prospects or additional material difficulties in implementing fiscal consolidation. It also reflects the greater capacity of the UK government compared with its euro area peers to absorb shocks resulting from any further escalation in the euro area sovereign debt crisis, given (1) the absence of the contingent liabilities from mutual support mechanisms that euro area members face; (2) the UK's more limited trade dependence on the euro area; and (3) the policy flexibility that the UK derives from having its own national currency, which is a global reserve currency. Lastly, the UK also benefits from a considerably longer-than-average debt-maturity schedule, making the country's debt-servicing costs less vulnerable to swings in interest rates.
 
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
 
As reflected by the stable rating outlook, Moody's does not anticipate any movement in the rating over the next 12-18 months. However, downward pressure on the rating could arise if government policies were unable to stabilise and begin to ease the UK's debt burden during the multi-year fiscal consolidation programme. Moody's could also downgrade the UK's government debt rating further in the event of an additional material deterioration in the country's economic prospects or reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation.
 
Conversely, Moody's would consider changing the outlook on the UK's rating to positive, and ultimately upgrading the rating back to Aaa, in the event of much more rapid economic growth and debt-to-GDP reduction than Moody's is currently anticipating.
 
COUNTRY CEILINGS
 
The UK's foreign- and local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Aaa. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain Prime-1.
 
IMPACT ON OTHER RATINGS
 
Moody's will assess the implications of this action for the debt obligations of other issuers which benefit from a guarantee from the UK sovereign, and will announce its conclusions shortly in accordance with EU regulatory requirements. Moody's does not consider that the one-notch downgrade of the UK sovereign has any implications for the standalone strength of UK financial institutions, or for the systemic support uplift factored into certain UK financial institutions' unguaranteed debt ratings.
 
PREVIOUS RATING ACTION

Moody's previous action on the UK's sovereign rating and the Bank of England was implemented on 13 February 2012, when the rating agency changed the outlook on both Aaa ratings to negative from stable. For the UK sovereign, the actions prior to that were Moody's assignment of a Aaa rating to the UK's government bonds in March 1978 and the assignment of a stable outlook in March 1997. For the Bank of England, the action prior to the one from February 2012 was the assignment of a Aaa rating and stable outlook in March 2010.

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Fri, 02/22/2013 - 18:37 | 3268430 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

With so many letters available in the alphabet why do these stupid rating agencies bother with so many big A's and little a's?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:57 | 3268669 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

In my day, in the US school system a grade of "A" meant outstanding, "B" meant above average and "C" average.   With so much debt outstanding, I'm surprised they didn't get graded 4 or 5 "A"s.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 18:39 | 3268433 Upland27
Upland27's picture

in before the lawsuit

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 18:40 | 3268443 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Biut fearing the rath of this thug, they will do nothing more!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 18:46 | 3268457 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Probably need Mike Milken rather than Mark Carney

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 18:49 | 3268466 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Maybe the Brits are just "seasonally adjusting" their rating like the USSA does with all its data...

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:01 | 3268486 ZZR600
ZZR600's picture

Gold gets slammed down on Thursday and then a major economy gets downgraded on the Friday? Insider trading..?...sell paper shit and then buy the physical on the cheap?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 18:58 | 3268495 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

I'm shorting the pound...and every fiat on the fucking planet.

Got phyz, Bitchez?!?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:00 | 3268503 yogibear
yogibear's picture

S&P was ready to downgrade the US again but Eric the useless Place-Holder had his boys pay them a visit and shook-down the top people. 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:03 | 3268511 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

and if you're a luciferian, like the hofjuden, sacrifice a virgin instead of

please sacrifice a lamb at the altar of Goldman: It's the polite thing to do.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:07 | 3268522 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Pfft... we're just switching to the new reserve currency, nothing to see here.  :)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/9888141/Bank-of-England-closes-in-on-China-currency-deal.html

(still going to get some veggies planted and sharpen my defensive scissors 'just incase')

Of course, if OPPT gains traction all of this is academic and we can all forget this financial nightmare and get on with life.  Now there's a nice day-dream for the weekend.

http://americankabuki.blogspot.ca/2013/01/when-oppt-shoe-dropped-evidence-that.html

Looking forward to seeing some more REAL GDP figures coming to a theatre near you soon.

 

Lots of love folks, good weekend all.

 

Giraffe,

United Kingdom of Banana Republics

 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:14 | 3268533 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

... anyone seen Sean Egan lately?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:15 | 3268534 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Watch the S.E.C. go after Moody's for "undermining the stability of the global financial system" or other such nonsense.

Corzine must have a good belly laugh when he even hears the acronyms "S.E.C." or "F.B.I.".

Bet he and Buffet have had a laugh over Bollinger and Lobster talking about MF Global and Heinz.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:26 | 3268564 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

... imagine what Madoff is thinking about this craziness. His ponzi pales in comparison.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 20:01 | 3268686 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

His own fault.  He didn't become too big to fail (or too connected).

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 21:05 | 3268840 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yes, pales, he is a guppy compared to these great white sharks, but that is why he was useful - a sacrificial guppy.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 21:22 | 3268875 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Ponzi envy...

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:28 | 3268570 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Time to move to the quatloo standard (fully backed by the full faith and credit of the providers).with every quatloo conversion you get a free death match with a hot chick. (The bernank will be played by the gamesters of Triskelian brains...)

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:29 | 3268572 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Aand, the farce continues.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:32 | 3268582 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

The UK is running on fumes, I'm waiting for the riots to start. Been hoarding food and water for some time now.

What a lovely fucking war.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:44 | 3268624 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Ratings are completely irrelevant, we are all in central planning now.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:45 | 3268633 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Outlook stable??? LOL!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:49 | 3268648 ReeferMac
ReeferMac's picture

Praise the Lloyd!

And it shall be done, on earth, as it is, at 200 West Street.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:57 | 3268673 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I upgraded Osbourne's performance from "LOL" to "LMAO"

The Tories should just declare David Cameron the Sheriff of Nottingham and get the fucking thing over with already.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 20:03 | 3268694 widget
widget's picture

"outlook is now stable"

stably in decline

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 20:28 | 3268764 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Time for UK rating agencies to downgrade the US!!

The UK can play this game as well.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 20:44 | 3268802 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

They are printing, PRINTING I TELL YOU!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 00:13 | 3269239 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Europe's ever so prescient repository of a post-atrophic sick child?... Indeed this anachronistic united kingdom we speak of, is but again, an unprotected and mutating love child... twice-- forced to bathe in 'bath salts'... having been submerged within a life-support flotation petri dish-- fluent of anti-toxic germinated derivatives per fiat-- fatefully to be subjugated to a merciful kervorkian experiment... that of a nirvana euthanasia.

god save the queen... 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 01:05 | 3269318 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Too little, too late. Thanks for nothing, as usual, Moody's.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 07:06 | 3269559 Euro Monster
Euro Monster's picture

ZH comments always make my day! Big thanks! :D

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 14:46 | 3274557 Alcuin Bramerton
Alcuin Bramerton's picture

I understand that the trigger for Moody's reducing the UK's credit rating from AAA to AA1 at this particular time was that the UK has just started direct forex dealings between the Pound and the Chinese Renminbi against the wishes of the US-EU banking syndicate.

 

Australia has, of course, been doing this for some time in connection with its mineral mining deals with China.

 

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