What The 'Real' Money Thinks Of The Italian Election

Tyler Durden's picture

With polls blacked out in Italy, the hope and hype is that Berlusconi doesn't get in, banish austerity, and bring the European OMT-inspired 'confidence' party crashing to the ground. While extremely low volume - and famously entirely wrong about Obamacare - the current Intrade odds favor Bersani massively at an 85% probability of becoming PM with comedian Beppe a mere 0.3% - even though it is somewhat ironic that he can still muster such support (for someone with a criminal record... umm Berlusconi?).


As a reminder, via Euromoney - Intrade traffic has collapsed in recent months since the end-November crackdown by the US government, prompted by allegations over improper betting. After hitting 287,000 unique visitors in November, Intrade traffic currently fails to meet ComScore reporting thresholds.


Source: Intrade

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lolmao500's picture

I vote for the Godfather.

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ACP's picture

I thought Beppe Grillo was a restaurant?

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, to be fair, they were right about Obamacare. Nobody could have foreseen that they would get to Roberts by threatening to take away his adopted children.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Italy is need new Benito, bare chest, testosterone manliness.

debtor of last resort's picture

I thought Hotel California was a hotel.

ersatzteil's picture

Any roadside motel off of 10 or 8 is Hotel California with the right amount of heroin and mdma.

Piranhanoia's picture

Which godfather, godfather?

Say What Again's picture

InTrade needs to make a market in; "When will Berle-macaroni get caught with an underage girl"

ersatzteil's picture

Silvio buys his girls like he buys Italian bonds - 15 years to maturity.

It is a bargin my friend's picture

What a load of bollocks that is, Grillo is surging

chubbyjjfong's picture

Beppe Grillo is indeed the odd one out.  Hes the only one who hasn't contracted genital herpes.

mkhs's picture

And you would know this because...?

chubbyjjfong's picture

Although there is still some weeping, my rash has cleared up considerably.

americanspirit's picture

Open, honest elections in Italy with no ballot-rigging. Especially in Sicily. You betcha.

EmmittFitzhume's picture

Bersani was a member of the Communist party. Now a Democrat. Same old shit

bank guy in Brussels's picture


Bunga bunga

Beautiful women

Break-up of the euro

Bring it on !

Bam_Man's picture

It's amazing. Every single time I've seen Berlusconi on camera with a woman - ANY woman - he will invariably at some point be seen staring at her ass. And this guy is 76 years old! Can you imagine what he must have been like when he was in his 20's? Bunga-Bunga, davvero!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I've got my money on the certainty of exponentially increasing global insanity.

<Would that be considered crazy?>

Piranhanoia's picture

Not if the bet was legally placed.

Zola's picture

I was not aware of the crackdown on Intrade. Truly the US government is one of the most pathetic, corrupt, incompetent and criminal entities out there

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just wait. It gets better........I mean worse?  :)

SV's picture

I think both.  I'm not so sure they're incompetent either because that would imply they don't know how to implement their corruption or criminal deeds.  They would make them a sub-par criminal - oh wait, they are!  To err is human, to really f(*k things up requires the US Govt.

TNTARG's picture

I don't see Bersani in Palazzo Chigi.

On the other hand if he gets there, the government will last... 2 months?

Uskatex's picture

The closing meetings of Italian elections are being held just now. Tomorrow it will be a "pause for reflection", and on Sunday and Monday (until 3 p.m.) there will be the vote.

After having followed the last week of the campaign, I would not be surprised of even a victory of 5 star Beppe Grillo's movement. My feeling is that in these days an "avalanche imitation effect" is taking place in Italy, and a lot of people now is declaring they will vote for M5S. Three weeks ago, most of them would not ever have thought to vote for M5S! Moreover, on Sunday and Monday wheather is forecasted to be very bad all over Italy, and this might hinder the vote of the elder, who are in general the least prone to vote for Grillo.

If they manage to overcome the other two main parties and get more than 30% of the votes (difficult, but not impossible), they will get the majority of 55% at the Camera (lower House). For the Senate, it is unpredictable. In any case, many tens, probably more than one hundred of PMs will come from the "real world", with no previous political experience, and with the goal to expose and block all "dirty tricks" of politicians. It will be a very interesting experiment, worth to be observed by all other OCSE countries!

thismarketisrigged's picture

whomever will send the market crashing ( if that is even possible these days ) has my vote

dariomilano's picture

800.000 in square St. Giovanni in Laterano in ROME + 150.000 contacts on youtube live + 120 streamings in squares all over italy : you tell me who would win :D 


ps. Beppe is not the prime minister, he isn't even a candidate

skydrake's picture

St. Giovanni in Laterano square isn't enough large. With 2-4 persons per mq, you need  200.000 -400.000 mq in orde e to acheive 800.000, ten times the space of that square.

NoWayJose's picture

If Bersani does not win outright, I can't see any of the others joining him in a coalition - not even Monti.  In such case, Bunga Bunga gets in - especially with Grillo not running himself.

dariomilano's picture

you are not italian and you can't know the real polls ..MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE is 1...... bersani 2, berlusconi 3

skydrake's picture

I'm Italian and my prevision is 1. Bersani (without the majority), 2.Grillo, 3. Berlusconi

The key region is Lombardia. If  Berlusconi will take it, we'll have an hung Parlament

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The main trick here is whether Italy can successfully remove itself as a leg of the euro currency.  Italy has 2,450 tonnes of gold.  They can survive perfectly fine with their own currency.  They would, for sure, be better off without the euro. 

Freddie's picture


Italy should leave the EUSSR.  Italy has survived 2,000+ years in various forms. I have more faith in Italy versus Obummer land.

anyways's picture

This 'intrade' shit is as rigged as every 'market'. Just forget about that other mafia game. Bullshit.

Freddie's picture

Intrade is rigged just like the US elctions in 2012 and probably 2008.  In fact, they have been totally rigged since Bush 1.  Bush 1/2, Clinton, Obummer are the same people.

ersatzteil's picture

5-Star is catching up; 800,000 people rallied in Rome yesterday plus another 158,000 vieiwng the youtube stream.

Similar numbers might be seen here with the young libertarian crowd if we weren't so damned defeated, apathetic and medicated. Oh, and kind of gainfully employed and afraid to lose our job.

stika's picture

dariomilano is correct: grillo is not a candidate, he's just the speaker of the movement, of course he has 0.3%, and to be fairly correct: it should be 0! As for the rest, no matter whoever wins this country is screwed up. At least if M5S wins, there will be no more agony... and everything will end up sooner than later.