What The 'Real' Money Thinks Of The Italian Election
With polls blacked out in Italy, the hope and hype is that Berlusconi doesn't get in, banish austerity, and bring the European OMT-inspired 'confidence' party crashing to the ground. While extremely low volume - and famously entirely wrong about Obamacare - the current Intrade odds favor Bersani massively at an 85% probability of becoming PM with comedian Beppe a mere 0.3% - even though it is somewhat ironic that he can still muster such support (for someone with a criminal record... umm Berlusconi?).
As a reminder, via Euromoney - Intrade traffic has collapsed in recent months since the end-November crackdown by the US government, prompted by allegations over improper betting. After hitting 287,000 unique visitors in November, Intrade traffic currently fails to meet ComScore reporting thresholds.