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What The 'Real' Money Thinks Of The Italian Election

Tyler Durden's picture


With polls blacked out in Italy, the hope and hype is that Berlusconi doesn't get in, banish austerity, and bring the European OMT-inspired 'confidence' party crashing to the ground. While extremely low volume - and famously entirely wrong about Obamacare - the current Intrade odds favor Bersani massively at an 85% probability of becoming PM with comedian Beppe a mere 0.3% - even though it is somewhat ironic that he can still muster such support (for someone with a criminal record... umm Berlusconi?).


As a reminder, via Euromoney - Intrade traffic has collapsed in recent months since the end-November crackdown by the US government, prompted by allegations over improper betting. After hitting 287,000 unique visitors in November, Intrade traffic currently fails to meet ComScore reporting thresholds.


Source: Intrade

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Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:13 | 3267701 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I vote for the Godfather.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:14 | 3267706 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

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Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:19 | 3267722 ACP
ACP's picture

I thought Beppe Grillo was a restaurant?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:49 | 3267817 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, to be fair, they were right about Obamacare. Nobody could have foreseen that they would get to Roberts by threatening to take away his adopted children.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 17:02 | 3268086 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Italy is need new Benito, bare chest, testosterone manliness.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 17:07 | 3268114 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

I thought Hotel California was a hotel.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:34 | 3268587 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

Any roadside motel off of 10 or 8 is Hotel California with the right amount of heroin and mdma.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:30 | 3267752 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Which godfather, godfather?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:14 | 3267707 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

InTrade needs to make a market in; "When will Berle-macaroni get caught with an underage girl"

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:39 | 3268602 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

Silvio buys his girls like he buys Italian bonds - 15 years to maturity.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:15 | 3267711 It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

What a load of bollocks that is, Grillo is surging

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:18 | 3267718 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

Beppe Grillo is indeed the odd one out.  Hes the only one who hasn't contracted genital herpes.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 16:51 | 3268044 mkhs
mkhs's picture

And you would know this because...?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 17:40 | 3268241 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

Although there is still some weeping, my rash has cleared up considerably.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:19 | 3267724 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Open, honest elections in Italy with no ballot-rigging. Especially in Sicily. You betcha.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:24 | 3267728 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

Bersani was a member of the Communist party. Now a Democrat. Same old shit

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:23 | 3267730 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture


Bunga bunga

Beautiful women

Break-up of the euro

Bring it on !

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:52 | 3267746 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

It's amazing. Every single time I've seen Berlusconi on camera with a woman - ANY woman - he will invariably at some point be seen staring at her ass. And this guy is 76 years old! Can you imagine what he must have been like when he was in his 20's? Bunga-Bunga, davvero!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:25 | 3267737 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I've got my money on the certainty of exponentially increasing global insanity.

<Would that be considered crazy?>

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:31 | 3267758 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Not if the bet was legally placed.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:36 | 3267775 Zola
Zola's picture

I was not aware of the crackdown on Intrade. Truly the US government is one of the most pathetic, corrupt, incompetent and criminal entities out there

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:41 | 3267796 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just wait. It gets better........I mean worse?  :)

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:52 | 3267828 SV
SV's picture

I think both.  I'm not so sure they're incompetent either because that would imply they don't know how to implement their corruption or criminal deeds.  They would make them a sub-par criminal - oh wait, they are!  To err is human, to really f(*k things up requires the US Govt.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:47 | 3267814 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

I don't see Bersani in Palazzo Chigi.

On the other hand if he gets there, the government will last... 2 months?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:57 | 3267844 Uskatex
Uskatex's picture

The closing meetings of Italian elections are being held just now. Tomorrow it will be a "pause for reflection", and on Sunday and Monday (until 3 p.m.) there will be the vote.

After having followed the last week of the campaign, I would not be surprised of even a victory of 5 star Beppe Grillo's movement. My feeling is that in these days an "avalanche imitation effect" is taking place in Italy, and a lot of people now is declaring they will vote for M5S. Three weeks ago, most of them would not ever have thought to vote for M5S! Moreover, on Sunday and Monday wheather is forecasted to be very bad all over Italy, and this might hinder the vote of the elder, who are in general the least prone to vote for Grillo.

If they manage to overcome the other two main parties and get more than 30% of the votes (difficult, but not impossible), they will get the majority of 55% at the Camera (lower House). For the Senate, it is unpredictable. In any case, many tens, probably more than one hundred of PMs will come from the "real world", with no previous political experience, and with the goal to expose and block all "dirty tricks" of politicians. It will be a very interesting experiment, worth to be observed by all other OCSE countries!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 16:21 | 3267917 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

whomever will send the market crashing ( if that is even possible these days ) has my vote

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 16:35 | 3267979 dariomilano
Fri, 02/22/2013 - 16:41 | 3267999 dariomilano
dariomilano's picture

800.000 in square St. Giovanni in Laterano in ROME + 150.000 contacts on youtube live + 120 streamings in squares all over italy : you tell me who would win :D 


ps. Beppe is not the prime minister, he isn't even a candidate

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 17:23 | 3268170 skydrake
skydrake's picture

St. Giovanni in Laterano square isn't enough large. With 2-4 persons per mq, you need  200.000 -400.000 mq in orde e to acheive 800.000, ten times the space of that square.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 16:46 | 3268023 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

If Bersani does not win outright, I can't see any of the others joining him in a coalition - not even Monti.  In such case, Bunga Bunga gets in - especially with Grillo not running himself.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 16:50 | 3268040 dariomilano
dariomilano's picture

you are not italian and you can't know the real polls ..MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE is 1...... bersani 2, berlusconi 3

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 05:30 | 3268205 skydrake
skydrake's picture

I'm Italian and my prevision is 1. Bersani (without the majority), 2.Grillo, 3. Berlusconi

The key region is Lombardia. If  Berlusconi will take it, we'll have an hung Parlament

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 17:11 | 3268130 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The main trick here is whether Italy can successfully remove itself as a leg of the euro currency.  Italy has 2,450 tonnes of gold.  They can survive perfectly fine with their own currency.  They would, for sure, be better off without the euro. 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:37 | 3268598 Freddie
Freddie's picture


Italy should leave the EUSSR.  Italy has survived 2,000+ years in various forms. I have more faith in Italy versus Obummer land.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 17:28 | 3268188 anyways
anyways's picture

This 'intrade' shit is as rigged as every 'market'. Just forget about that other mafia game. Bullshit.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:39 | 3268605 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Intrade is rigged just like the US elctions in 2012 and probably 2008.  In fact, they have been totally rigged since Bush 1.  Bush 1/2, Clinton, Obummer are the same people.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 19:43 | 3268620 ersatzteil
ersatzteil's picture

5-Star is catching up; 800,000 people rallied in Rome yesterday plus another 158,000 vieiwng the youtube stream.

Similar numbers might be seen here with the young libertarian crowd if we weren't so damned defeated, apathetic and medicated. Oh, and kind of gainfully employed and afraid to lose our job.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 08:15 | 3269607 stika
stika's picture

dariomilano is correct: grillo is not a candidate, he's just the speaker of the movement, of course he has 0.3%, and to be fairly correct: it should be 0! As for the rest, no matter whoever wins this country is screwed up. At least if M5S wins, there will be no more agony... and everything will end up sooner than later. 

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