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America's Tragic Future In One Parabolic Chart

Tyler Durden's picture


When it comes to forecasting the long-term trajectory of the US economy, things usually get very fuzzy some time after 2020 because, as even the most hardened optimists, the "impartial" Congressional Budget Office have recently admitted, America has at best 3-4 years before everything falls apart due to the unsustainable demographic crunch that will wallop the US entitlement state as demographics suddenly becomes a four letter word. Beyond that, not even the CBO dares to plot a straight line as to what happens should America not get its fiscal house in order.

Which is why were were very surprised to see none other than Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw and Deutsche Bank's David Hooper release a paper (whose views do "not necessarily reflect those of the institutions with which they are affiliated") titled "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy" which is a must read for everyone interested in what very likely will happen to the US as ever more power is handed over by the country's now terminally malfunctioning fiscal and legislative apparatus to the monetary policy vehicle controlled by the US financial oligarchy.

Since we know that most readers are pressed for time, we will cut to the chase: the following chart shows what according to the authors' own simulation of the US economy, and not that of the CBO, rates on the 10 Year will look like through 2037. The second chart shows what US debt-to-GDP will be for the next two and a half decades.

The charts need no commentary. Parabola #1 showing the yield on the 10 Year under the authors' simulation:

And Parabola #2 showing total US debt/GDP:

For those who request at least a little commentary, here it is:

[W]e have assumed the U.S. current account deficit holds at 2.5% of GDP-- a level that matches the best result seen in the past decade and is slightly narrower than the 2.7% of GDP recorded in 2012. If, instead, we assume that the current account deficit reverted to the 3.7% of GDP average seen over the prior five years, then the projected debt burden would reach 180% of GDP in 2037.


We can also examine a scenario in which policy actions and economic outcomes produce a less favorable path for the primary budget deficit (using our baseline current account deficit assumption of 2.5% of GDP). For example, suppose that the looming budget sequester scheduled to occur on March 1 is cancelled and that the steady-state unemployment rate is assumed to be 6% (as opposed to the 5.25% as assumed by CBO). In this case (which we refer to as Simulation II), the budget deficit would be quite a bit higher than in the initial scenario. The debt/GDP ratio would rise much more rapidly, hitting 304% of GDP by 2037 (Figure 3.13) and bond yields would skyrocket, eventually getting above 25% (see Figure 3.14).


We should emphasize that we are not presenting these alternative simulations as more realistic forecasts of what the U.S. experience will actually be. In a country like the United States, the debt premium presumably would arise from inflation fears rather than concerns about outright default. And if we are talking about a higher inflation rate, forecasts of nominal GDP should be adjusted as well. Instead, we view these simulations as illustrating the extent to which the path implied by baseline CBO projections could quickly become much more difficult to manage than some policy-makers may be assuming-- something dramatic will need to change well before U.S. interest rates reach double-digit rates


Our main conclusion is that higher debt levels can have a significant impact on the interest rate path and that feedback effects of higher rates on the level of indebtedness can lead to a more dramatic deterioration in long-run debt sustainability in the United States than is captured in official baseline estimates. Figure

Putting some numbers to the forecast by Greenlaw and Hooper, and assuming a 1.5% CAGR for GDP, which in the new structurally slower normal is quite generous, we get $23 trillion in US GDP by 2037, $70 trillion in debt, and a blended cash interest expense that is over 75% of total GDP.

We also get the Fed monetizing all of it.


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Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:17 | 3270529 AssFire
AssFire's picture

I am going long Remington typewriters.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:28 | 3270550 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I am going long Remington  ... slug guns.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:35 | 3270565 diogeneslaertius
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Pb, Ag, Au, typewriters, heirloom seeds, machine tools, land, chickens, and RAGE.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:38 | 3270570 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

also friendship, art, community, mutual respect, and ultimately freedom - ultimately a codifying cultural component vector emerging from this superabundant dataset the way consciousness emerges as a "strange loop"


this process already begun and evident like an infection

ignore those who cannot see the bacteria and therefore argue it doest not exist - continue making ideological microscopes and 3D printing them into the flow of digital information.


Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:38 | 3270572 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

no word if it was a swan

Chinese City Reports Second Bird Flu Fatality

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:45 | 3270586 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

"[W]e get $23 trillion in US GDP by 2037, $70 trillion in debt, and..."

...Dow 60,000.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:48 | 3270591 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture



Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:03 | 3270617 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

dow 60k

we don't need jobs we can all just day trade

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:33 | 3270667 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Just in time for Hillary to come save the day!  





Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:56 | 3270696 gofigure
gofigure's picture

Onward, through the fog...

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:01 | 3270709 samsara
samsara's picture

You tell them Oat Willie

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:52 | 3270835 disabledvet
Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:36 | 3270993 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy"

co-authored by fred (iceland instability) mishkin?

who the hell paid for this report!

they'd better have paid more than a measly $124k.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 01:42 | 3271051 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

You're kidding yourself if you think the turn doesnt start for 20 years.  You spent the social security trust fund you schmucks.  This ends badly much sooner.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 07:01 | 3271197 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 07:12 | 3271204 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Hot potato.


Live grenade.


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:23 | 3271382 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Jokerz who didn't see 2008 coming telling everyone that the next 20 years will be A-OK... that basically sums up all these "projections".

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:05 | 3271248 Freegold
Freegold's picture

The debt it self is not what will break the back of America. It will be all those dollar exported for decades. When less and less dollars are absorbed by the rest of the world the deathspiral begin. Actually it has already begun.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:53 | 3271258 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Probably within 3 years.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:05 | 3271305 centerline
centerline's picture

Thinking the same here.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:14 | 3271313 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

You are a hopeless optimist if you think we still have three years left. Why does the author think this would take the form of a smooth parabola? This scenario has all the makings of a catastrophic break.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:16 | 3271314 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:44 | 3271422 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture


 Max Keiser



Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:25 | 3271391 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

The catchphrase you are looking for is the Obama slogan... "FORWARD!!"

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:35 | 3270901 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture


Acknowledging your /sarc comment and agreeing...

But still having to ask rhetorically...

How is Hitlery going to save the day with this shit...

(In her best bitchy screechy voice) "What difference does it make?"

It will be interesting to see how the MSM tries to bury that incriminating comment (and we make sure they don't) if she runs in 2016.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:44 | 3271002 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

Just in time for the Hispanic Bush to save us.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:55 | 3271015 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"Hispanic Bush" is better than wise Latina.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 07:57 | 3271218 GetZeeGold
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Blame it on Bush all you want.....we all know it was Thomas Jefferson that that started the downturn.


Lenin showed the way....but we stupid Americans just couldn't see the light.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:22 | 3271671 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Actually it was George Washington.  He should have just declared himself King and ended all the confusion among the plebs.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:50 | 3271346 unrulian
unrulian's picture

no i'm sure it will be a tight race between one of the bush twins, chelsea and the obama girls

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:29 | 3270659 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Heading for the Debt Singularity.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:58 | 3270703 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

These criminals own the “government”. The “government” does not tell them what to do, they tell the “government” what to do. They are the reason there is war everywhere, why the “government” ruling over us attacks nations all over the planet committing murder and terrorism against them and treason against us every day. I can’t imagine what sort of force will have to come to the fore to stop these criminals, but they must be stopped.

The “government” is a criminal organization. They rule with fire power. They are a gang that numbers in many thousands. Their goons are everywhere. America in under an occupation of criminals and will continue to be until they are at last forcibly removed from our land.
Their economic Ponzi scheme is about to collapse and the main mechanism of their control will be gone. Their central bank, the Fed Reserve, (see fifth Plank Communist Manifesto) has run its course. A 100 year conspiracy is coming to fruition and the deed is done.
Just one big problem for them, 200,000,000 guns in the hands of free Americans who hate their guts, and are hell bent of restoring this Republic to Constitutional legitimacy. Whatever cruelty, whatever ruthlessness the criminal “government” uses we must exercise even more so. Don’t forget, they want our property, wealth and us dead. No quarter for traitors! No quarter for the enemy!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:02 | 3270855 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"why does the Government attack us? What did we do?" a powerful point indeed. "make mere mockery and the rage will indeed...
well...the entire planet get's that truth.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:22 | 3270879 CH1
CH1's picture

free Americans who hate their guts, and are hell bent of restoring this Republic to Constitutional legitimacy.

I agree with some of what you wrote, but violence (which you imply), destroys the user. Sure, it is necessary at times, but talk about being consciously cruel is a major error.And, it's bad strategy.

Also: I don't want to be part of a republic. I don't mind if you and others want to live that way, but I will not join you. and if you try to force me to join, you are a tyrant, just like the current regime.

So, have your republic if you wish, but leave the rest of us free to live as we wish. And please don't play the violence game.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:59 | 3271018 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Only a true Constitutional Republic will give you the freedom to live outside of said Republic in peace.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 04:11 | 3271128 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

This is a contradiction. It is not possible to live under, yet simutaneously outside of, any form of governance. All governments are a monopoly on violence. Prevaling wisdom is that might makes right, which results in escalation of violence. As such, in order to live outside of government, one must continually attempt to evade the reach of government, living by default, under its boot.

We supposedly started with a Constitutional Republic. We ended up where we are.


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:21 | 3271665 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

wrong. the constitution states that individuals have 'God given' rights....rights that can no be taken away. these are basic rights that trump 'might makes right'. the ensueing government that is formed by indivuduals under the constitution must not only believe but enforce these basic rights.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:58 | 3271456 CH1
CH1's picture

Only a true Constitutional Republic will give you the freedom to live outside of said Republic in peace.

So, in your enlightenment, you will enslave me to your republic?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 00:30 | 3273119 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Most people can understand the concept of freedom of religion. It is the only sane way, considering the many different religious beliefs and how strongly those beliefs are held.

What is difficult for them is to apply that concept of choice to the many differing political beliefs, also strongly held beliefs.

People would rather kill than let others be free.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:36 | 3271556 indygo55
indygo55's picture
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
-- Thomas Jefferson
Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:19 | 3270882 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

'I can’t imagine what sort of force will have to come to the fore to stop these criminals,'   i can.  i can imagine what kind of force .... 1.  stop paying income taxes en mass  2. stop buying stuff at stores  3.  do not put money in banks & do not take out loans.    yes, there will be tons of suffering, it will be worth it, tho.   the past 100 years was abnormal.   it will take many many years to right the wrong.    (those s.o.b. central bankers !  it's grift, it's theft, it's scamming & looting & stealing the real assets for the worthless banknotes !  why don't the sheeple understand this yet!?)   

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:22 | 3270890 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

If Americans showed any tendency to take a little discomfort or inconvenience to correct our ills, I have failed to see it. Looks to me they are forming KoolAid lines of delusion instead. Forward!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:34 | 3270918 CH1
CH1's picture

1.  stop paying (all) taxes en mass

Right, if that was done, the state would curl up and vanish in short order. Nothing else required.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:53 | 3270946 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

You think they wouldn't come "collecting"? They already proven they can print what they need. The taxes are more of a control and enforcement action anyway. I do agree with the spirirt though. I think most of us fear that we might find ourselves pretty lonely once we finally did stand up and say NO MORE!  Crickets maybe?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:11 | 3270969 CH1
CH1's picture

You think they wouldn't come "collecting"?

Sure, but they haven't the manpower. Just play out the scenario a bit.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:50 | 3271114 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

If only a minority of people take part in a tax-revolt, well, they get crushed by the state.

Play out this scenario:

"The IRS is looking to hire adults between the ages of 18 and 30 to help combat tax evasion and fraud blah blah blah ..."

Applicants would line up for miles.

In a bad job market, no one can afford not to take the offer to become a government snitch, lackey, toadey, functionary, etc.

In a good job market, there is no need for the government to have these positions.

Lose-lose situation.

And 50% of the population already pays no net federal taxes. You think they'd support a middle-class, let alone wealthy, tax-revolt? Not for one second, they know who butters their bread.

And as to not having the manpower, they would simply pass a law charging local and state police agencies with supporting all IRS enforcement activity.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:08 | 3271484 CH1
CH1's picture

"The IRS is looking to hire adults between the ages of 18 and 30 to help combat tax evasion and fraud blah blah blah ..."

That would probably not lead to much more of a skim. They suck very badly.

And of course, I have mentioned nothing of cleverness and going Galt. This is fertile ground for thought experiments.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 04:16 | 3271130 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Ha. Good point, however, it presumes there are more productive individuals, than there are looters

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:26 | 3271691 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

hell, don't even break the law.....stop paying taxes every pay period.....

if everyone would pay according to law (april 15) then that would starve the beast. simply following the law.


*this has been my mantra for some time. however, since 'income taxes' are such a small portion of the 'take' it probably would not matter. but it would at leasat be worth a try and a worthy cause.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:59 | 3270953 brettd
brettd's picture

Yep.  Don't have to kill people.  

When asked "who are the top three people on your hit list?" the "preppers" will return to you a blank stare.  Most of their big talk is empty---a good excuse to go shopping for guns....

Remember:  Capone was sunk not with a gun but wirh an accountant.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:05 | 3270961 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

You're asking inappropriate questions and they probably think you work for the guvmint. They probably took down your license plate number too. Heh heh.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:17 | 3271097 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Who has hit lists? I just have a wish list.  Just bought a pair of assault scissors.  They have 12 inch blades.  Gonna cut the top three names off that wish list and then get a beer and watch a wreck on nascar.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:00 | 3270954 CH1
CH1's picture

why don't the sheeple understand this yet!?

Generally, they feel vulnerable, afraid and confused. They realize that accepting this as true means that they have been wrong, and they don't want to admit it.

Being wrong means re-examining things and taking responsibility for their errors. They feel too weak to face tha, and they deeply fear what people (and authorities) would then say of them. 

And, honestly, we haven't done the best job of explaining.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:59 | 3271122 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

The Fear of Freedom is more than that. It involves a compulsion to displace responsibility onto someone or something else. Not just for the past but for everything. It's the authoritarian personality; and yes, the entire personality is involved. Trying to change such people is simply stupid. It comes down to a difference in values. They value security and structure more than anything, definitely including freedom, liberty, property, and happiness.

Even if you forced them to be free tomorrow, they would be serving a new totalitarian despot next week. It's what their personality seeks and, one could argue, needs.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 04:36 | 3271141 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Made me sick to up arrow you but, what can I say, you're right. Just as a horse will run back into a burning barn, people will seek security in the most irrational circumstances. Funny thing though. You can lead a horse out of a burning barn if his eyes are covered. Perhaps this the only way. Some people will lead and hopefully enough will wake up and follow before its too late.


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:39 | 3271414 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Trying to change such people is simply stupid. It comes down to a difference in values.


This is why I had to just stop talking to my Obamabot neighbors about anything but the weather and what day it is. Cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias on steroids. Not that I have all the answers, but hey, let's try not to be willfully blind to what's happening.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:01 | 3271303 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You're projecting/rationalizing your hopes and beliefs onto others, the reds should clue you in.

No one had to explain anything to me, but I DID have to go looking for the Truth.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:26 | 3271393 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

.... because people want security more than they want liberty .....

Whoever promises the masses security (however much a lie), will get their support; they will be told to hand in their guns, and they will be looked after by a benevolent gummint. Since then has that ever worked out well.

They are scared enough folks will withhold their taxes, or load up their magazines.


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:09 | 3270966 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

+ 1000 ...If every patriot/gun owner went in Monday and changed their W4 to 10 dependants.....



Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:45 | 3271004 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Most patriot gun owners are still operating within the law.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:19 | 3271099 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

I see what the govt is spending my money on - I really do have 10 dependants.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 06:13 | 3271180 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

i have 100.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:14 | 3271499 CH1
CH1's picture

Most patriot gun owners are still operating within the law.

And haven't the guts to do otherwise.

Tough-guy talk is cheap. Stepping outside the gate isn't.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:24 | 3271237 de3de8
de3de8's picture

bee, because by definition the Sheeple are clueless.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 02:23 | 3271083 therover
therover's picture

"No quarter for traitors! No quarter for the enemy!"


I disagree Chup...I say QUARTER the traitors and QUARTER the enemy. The old fashioned way...with horses. 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:12 | 3271492 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Blood sucking parasites will stick to till the last drop of blood.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 16:20 | 3272092 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

The word "Establishment" is a general term for the power elite in international finance, business, the professions and government, largely from the northeast, who wield most of the power regardless of who is in the White House.
Most people are unaware of the existence of this "legitimate Mafia." Yet the power of the Establishment makes itself felt from the professor who seeks a foundation grant, to the candidate for a cabinet post or State Department job. It affects the nation's policies in almost every area.
~Columnist Edith Kermit Roosevelt, granddaughter of President Theodore Roosevelt, described the Establishment

"Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite."
~Dwight Eisenhower, Fairwell Address

>>Their economic Ponzi scheme is about to collapse and the main mechanism of their control will be gone.<<

That's why they will restrict the money supply in order to bust the debtors, as opposed to hyperinflate.  They may bump that fluorisilicic acid amount up to 4PPM for extra brain damage and they might even put lithium in the water - and not tell the Muppets.

Their plan is to trade in their cash for ownership in *your* reality.

The average Muppet will probably burn down a furniture store like they did in Britain. 

That is, unless people spread the word in their community.

Debt Money Tyranny

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 19:26 | 3272475 mirac
mirac's picture

please remember that there are billions of us and only thousands of them...and they won't be safe in their little bunkers either-they're psychopaths and they have blind spots about reality

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 21:03 | 3272661 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Excellent post... right up until:

Just one big problem for them, 200,000,000 guns in the hands of free Americans who hate their guts, and are hell bent of restoring this Republic to Constitutional legitimacy.

What is this, like 20,000 Americans with 10,000 guns each? Cause if you think there's 200,000,000 'free' Americans, why is it our elections keep delivering fascists like Bush and Obama?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:18 | 3271297 rbg81
rbg81's picture

I really don't see the problem.  The Federal Reserve just keep on doing what its been doing:  buying the debt with imaginary $$ and, thus, keeping interest rates near zero.  And, as long as we're dealing with play $$, they can buy ALL kinds of debt (municipal, corporate, etc) to keep real interest rates near zero.  Or even less than zero, which would constitute a wealth tax.  So, in effect, the FED becomes the Bond Market.  Those with something to lose can be bullied into compliance by the Gubermint.  Those without anything to lose won't give a shit anyway.  The low information voters in between won't pay attention.  For the sliver of us that are well informed and can't be bought off....well, that''s what concentration camps are for.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:48 | 3270673 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US debt and unfunded liabilities are $138.44 trillion today.  Since Medicare and Social Security cannot be cut (politically impossible), US debt to GDP is 895% now.  The future that the article talks about (debt to GDP of 304% in 2037) was 15 years ago. Our tragic future is 15 years old today.

Back to the future.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:21 | 3271102 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Move the graph back 15 years and see where that leaves us.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:55 | 3271259 Fiat Fantasy
Fiat Fantasy's picture

Your talking unfunded libilities - debt/GDP reflects current spending. Who says that after the dam breaks we will support those unfunded liabilities? Look at Greece today - only a few short years after their bailout - people are fighting each other to get the charity food off the trucks. Do you think their gov't sponsored retirement checks and gov't paid healthcare is still there?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 05:28 | 3271155 Tirion
Tirion's picture

Yes, and dollar index at 6!

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 19:02 | 3272419 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

And gold, $60,000, with no offers.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:46 | 3270588 flacon
flacon's picture

"Since we know that most readers are pressed for time"


They say that time is money, but money is running out of time. 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:18 | 3270639 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

What the world needs now is some accountability,
We can't buy more time because time won't accept our money,
If your soul needs love you can always have my pity,
But it looks as though faith alone won't sustain us no more

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:47 | 3270589 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

+1......Build a barter community around you, If anybody thinks they're going it alone they are mistaken.


Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:28 | 3270906 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

say it again. the barter strengthens us and weakens them. So do gardens and sharing - things and clothes and tools and knowledge

a couple years back I suggested a break into four groups. each group takes a week and tries to buy nothing or the bare minimum to get through.   

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:42 | 3270932 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

Seek out Amish (the original preppers) and farming families.....I barter with them everyday and they are salt of the earth.

Amish people are the best humans I ever met.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:12 | 3270970 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

The Amish salt of the earth? Maybe if they stopped polluting waterways, depleting the soil, inbreeding, beating their wives, abusing their animals, etc. Sounds like you don't know them very well yet.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:24 | 3270987 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

I've never seen of what you speak. Both of my closest neighbors (40+ years) are Amish and they would take a bullet for me?

I know 100's of Amish.

I dunno?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:58 | 3271262 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Apparently the fake Amish TV shows have succeeded.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 09:19 | 3271272 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

cannibal economics, and savers are on the menu. next up property owners, then ...

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:37 | 3271331 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Exactly this type of entertainment is about creating division, it is its purpose.  Trash everyone and everything ut your sacred liberal cows and sow mistrust and the inability to form coalitions to foment change.  Where is Freddy on this??

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:23 | 3271386 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

23 years in the criminal justice system and I'd say the Amish do not have a monopoly on your claims

Amish squeamish

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:23 | 3270983 tango
tango's picture

I have property in a Mennonite community.  Every farm (10-15 acres) looks like a painting - rolling hills, large ponds, free range animals.  One man with a German accent told me they use "natural" fertilizer. lol  They are industrious, kind and trustworthy and can do practically anything.  They call me "city boy" and offer help all the time. 

I also have land in rural communities in West Tn populated bgy "old geezers" who have lived there all their lives, ride half a million dollar tractors and would give you the shirt off their back.  If something did happen these folks would be the ones to lay the foundation for a new productive society. 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:54 | 3271014 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

I live next to a bunch of niggers.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:16 | 3271507 CH1
CH1's picture

And the purpose of this comment was what?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:47 | 3271746 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

it appears to 'contrast' the two groups.


what is the purpose of your comment? is it to try and 'put him in his place'?? look up the etymology of the word nigger and report back.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:00 | 3270955 brettd
brettd's picture

Good friends will be a great asset.


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 02:26 | 3271085 e-recep
e-recep's picture

economic depression causes psychological depression. even close relatives or friends get more distant. sad, isn't it?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:15 | 3270971 tango
tango's picture

As a land buyer I meet numerous "preppers".  The idiots yap about guns and violence; the smart ones say that community is the key.  At least the energy future looks promising. At current rates, solar will soon (5 yrs) be half the cost and twice as efficient.  And the CHP systems (also a TN product!) now installed in large high rises are heading into homes making it possible to live off the grid.  Sustainability, enterprise and responsibility go hand in hand.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:28 | 3271398 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

passive solar is the oldest managed energy system in the word. Insulate the home with thick walls. South facing windows. Thick cover at night. Big warm colored stone to absorb the day energy. Rocket stoves. 150 years ago they were growing a lot of vegetables in the winter outside Paris. They were using horseshit to warm the soil and planting over it. 

Given where MOnsanto and oil and Modern Ag is taking us we will have no choice but these methods...but these methods have worked for a long long time  

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 04:16 | 3271129 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Gardens for horticulture are great, but cannot really sustain you. You need to either gather or practice agriculture. Horticulture + hunting/gathering, in 95% of all groups which have developed it, was a temporary stage between pure hunting/gathering and agriculture. Agriculture in 100% of groups always results in 1 of 2 outcomes: emergence of powerful centralized state, or collapse back to at most horticulture.

You cannot change human nature in a single generation. It has not changed in 2 million years. 98% of our existence as a species was spent as hunter/gatherer bands. It is the absolutely ultimate in sustainability, and it is our nature. And just as certainly, virtually no one in any society which has at the moment transcended that level of subsistence ever wants to go back.

It is absolutely correct that our nature does not allow us to thrive, nor even to suvive, alone. It is also every bit as true that human history is clear on what happens when an argicultural society collapses. Our culture would not survive it. None ever has. And the people mired in our culture, I think we can say with some certainty, would not handle the transition well. The differences between a society such as ours, and its culture, and the society and culture of pre-/non-agricultural groups is simply enormous. You can hardly name anything that isn't significantly different and in a way most modern people would find quite intolerable.

The transition from individualist/centralized to communitarian/egalitarian is a bitch. If you think it's just a matter of planting gardens and making friends with your neighbors you are dangerously mistaken.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:33 | 3271405 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

permaculture is the synthesis of the two and people(s) have been using these techniques for quite a bit. When modern man came to the continent and looked he didn't realize that he was looking at a sophisticated and managed food system of perennials (a lot of trees and bushes and bubs) He cut most of them down for the modern one crop methods and destroyed the natural systems that will always be more porductive and self sustaining. WHy shouldn't they be. They're the natural systems.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:36 | 3271408 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Might need the basic workings of something one day


Agrarian Law, 111 BC

Babylonian Law--The Code of Hammurabi


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:23 | 3271519 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

80% of Americans would never survive a SHTF scenario first off....

It's not going to be an event for the weak of mind that's for sure.

It's mental, you have to prepare yourself mentally.



Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:34 | 3270799 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I can envision a time when the people via our government tell the central banks to fuck off, burn all the FRNs, and go back to a monetary system as described by the founding fathers in the US constitution.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:05 | 3270860 CH1
CH1's picture

I can envision a time when the people via our government tell....

I appreciate the sentiment, and I'm not trying to be snarky, but...

The Fed and the US government are partners in crime. The government is your enemy, and will remain your enemy. They will not become anything better than what they are.

What great men like Jefferson believed was expelled from DC a LONG time ago.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 04:21 | 3271133 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Jefferson believed in an agricultural aristocracy which would use the Republic to make sure society was run "correctly", namely that the aristocracy stayed on top. The fact that he had no positive socialist program and sang the praises of liberty (for some) doesn't make him any less of a statist.

There's nothing particularly wrong with that, but it bears being laid out. If you think, for example, that "all men" actually refers to ALL humans, Jefferson ain't your guy, and would have had quite a laugh at you. 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:21 | 3271516 CH1
CH1's picture

Jefferson was not perfect, and he bore some marks of his earlier and more ignorant era, but these accusations you supply are false.

I've read the man's correspondence and I stand by my remark calling him a re great man.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:52 | 3270834 CH1
CH1's picture

also friendship, art, community, mutual respect, and ultimately freedom - ultimately a codifying cultural component vector emerging from this superabundant dataset the way consciousness emerges as a "strange loop"

Comment of the day. +10

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:31 | 3271105 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Damn, a monkey just flew out of my ass.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:42 | 3270582 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Speaking of Ag, I just noticed that Tulving is completely sold out of ALL junk silver coins-- even 40% Kennedy halves, which are the red-headed stepchildren of junk silver.

Now, I haven't been paying much attention to what's been in stock over the past year or so, but I found that startling, and I wonder how long this has been the case.

And in general, looking at what Tulving has on offer, it seems like the variety of products for sale has narrowed.


Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:28 | 3270656 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

When bullion banks pull their bids, bullion suppliers pull their stocks. Give it a while and stocks will magically reappear. 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:50 | 3270831 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



Not to worry, plenty of silver still out there at very reasonable prices:


Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:56 | 3270844 akak
akak's picture

The word "plenty" is meaningless when discussing a possible trend, that trend being declining silver supplies.

I hear the captain of the Titanic tried to reassure the doomed passengers as the ship sank that there was still "plenty" of ship above the waterline at any given moment, too --- until there was none left at all.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:28 | 3270990 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

How about 'marginal'? Is that meaningless too?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 11:10 | 3271370 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

I have to wonder why Merit is not on that list when their 10oz bars are the same price as the "lowest" on your link........Merit offers free shipping no most orders too.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:56 | 3270694 The Miser
The Miser's picture

When I checked Provident, they are out of "junk silver" too.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:59 | 3270704 akak
akak's picture

I guess it's not so "junky" after all.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:55 | 3270842 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The best [local] coin shop was completely out of junk silver back in January... But last week they had about $100 - $200 [face] of some various things up to HALVES...

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:36 | 3271107 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Junk Ag on ebay going for minimum of $33 per oz and very commonly up to $37 and more.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:22 | 3270728 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

My Seattle area shop had plenty of 90% coins but were all out of new ASEs. Best I could do was get tubes of 2007 ASEs or come back next week when the 2013s arrived, most of which had been reserved in advance by customers. Very brisk buying while I was there. 

Here, we BTFDYI...

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:23 | 3270763 Midas
Midas's picture

Just curious, but is there a good reason people pay extra for the current year ASE?  If a rose is a rose, isn't an ASE an ASE?

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:25 | 3270769 akak
akak's picture


Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:50 | 3270830 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Yes, I "pay" debtbux. Because I want the real thing, not a paper derivative. 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 20:56 | 3272648 BigJim
BigJim's picture

LOL... I thought that was gold?

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:51 | 3270832 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

People want to get in on the last batch of silver coins to ever be issued by the mint.


Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:06 | 3270910 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Funny, isn't it...   BTW, no 'extra' premium for 2013. Your guy screwin' ya much?  ;)

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 01:10 | 3271020 Midas
Midas's picture

Nobody is screwing me since I don't buy ASE.  I stick to 100oz bars and junk silver.  What is the best deal you can find on 2013 ASEs?


Another question.  Who was the first hipster who started putting much at the end of a question?  I thought it was silly the first time I heard it. 

It isn't getting any more clever. 


P.S.  I may be wrong about there being a premium.  My guy (Tulving) doesn't appear to have anything other than the new stuff.  Surprise.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 04:49 | 3271145 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Ace Ventura ended sentences with "much" and he was no probably goes back even further than that.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 14:51 | 3271878 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Fuck off and die, much?  You're a fragile faggot, aren't ya?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 23:45 | 3272999 Midas
Midas's picture

Sorry if I offended you, I wasn't trying to, I am just trying to gauge why people differentiate between current year ASE, and I have already admitted I may be out to lunch.  I can't really prove or disprove my claim since I can't find anyone selling both.

Sorry if I am sensitive to the use of much, it's not really you, it's the teenagers I know that use it non-stop.  Cheers.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:50 | 3270825 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

The waiting line for SE's in any substantial amount at NW Terr Mint is "8-10 weeks". I believe that is their own "moving" estimate of time interval before PonziCollapse.  

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 23:15 | 3270876 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

did you mean the money is going to collapse....or the debt? i'm easily confused and when in doubt "reach for yield."

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:09 | 3270964 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

dollarcollapse. Never mind "yield". First reach for water and food. Then weapon(s) + ammo. Then silver by the ounce. I hope I am wrong - since my own preps are far from complete - but I do not think there is much time left. The guywires that hold up the debt-pyramid are straining and whipping about and TPTB know it even better than we do...that's why the sudden, frantic gun-grab. When the ZOGsters can no longer buy consent with debtbux, they intend to coerce it. With extreme violence.  

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:19 | 3271227 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

not personal but general....
don't over prepare dood. Live life and stop being scared.

IS this a
purely preper site?
i mean 100 s of trillions in debt has nothing to do with asssault weapons , ,,,,you guys think it does ... just your opinions on a unparcial site. THE US is violent , Hollywood probably more to blame than any lame government...i was a big fan of rambo action flicks,,,'20 years back' the good guys fighting and winning is getting boring... evolve already.

it is easy....IF and a big fucking IF the financial system collapses would be 1929 again, with a few tanks in the streets.

who really wants to survive with no new car to buy??? Planting seeds... i don't even have a consumer mind like most first world citizens and i could not live without basic comforts for me or my family suicide is much better than all your bull shit prepping ....

my only worries right now are how much snow do i get this winter and who do i sell my junk silver and gold watches to...

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:43 | 3271337 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"i mean 100 s of trillions in debt has nothing to do with asssault weapons , ,,,,you guys think it does ... "

Your not real good at thinking past the original thought are you?  This is sarc right?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:20 | 3271512 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

not sarc, you had a couple revolutions, people don't care about derivatives, they only care about mortgage and atms.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:04 | 3271614 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Okay, I'll try..  Just think what happens when EBT cards buy nothing, supply lines stretch and billions and billions of dollars comes flooding into America trying to avenge themselves on our assets..  If you have not thought this far, you need to get back to Yahoo finance.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:14 | 3271644 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

well , you tried. ...

Here in
patagonia, we see things differently.
don,t know what zillions of dollars you are talking about,flooding back to America if the system fails,,,, if it fails it fails, sorry don,t se your logic

Please play again.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:54 | 3271599 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

" would be 1929 again, with a few tanks in the streets."

In 1929, one-sixth of the US population was not on Food Stamps (SNAP). In 1929, half of the households in the US were not receiving some form of government assistance.

What do you think will happen when the SNAP cards stop working, when the Obama phones stop working, and when the government checks stop coming? Do you honestly believe most people will just sit in their homes and peacefully wait for the government to fix itself?

Within a few days, the entitlement class will be rioting and looting stores. If we are lucky, they will wear themselves out and sanity will be restored. But, if the violence continues, it will soon become too dangerous for the people who keep our life-supporting infrastructure (water, sewer, electricity - talk about the unsung heroes of our society) operating to keep doing their jobs, and everything will irreversibly collapse. 

Ultimately, it is all about economics. Many preppers just look at what might happen if the economy fails.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:10 | 3271627 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

no need to be a preper where i live. i'll give it a shot once/ big IF it starts ....i have my hit list, they have plenty of weapons and amo, those don,t work when you go to sleep..
i will probably jump off a cliff after short time..

a good plan is way better than a thousand bullets. i'll go with my courage and brains instead of beans..until it is not worth it anymore..

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:54 | 3270603 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

I think there are many variables at play. Making these projections involves taking a very specific assumptions regarding these variables. If any of these variables change, so will these projections.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:45 | 3270680 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

ahhh.. a stock tipper...PhD in the bleeding obvious? heh, sorry my bad, couldn't resist..

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 03:59 | 3271121 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

No-Fall Out Shampoo and Secret's Stress Response


Secret Stress Response - Because the sweat of stress is the stink of fear . (We need 4 x the protection to prevent from being a human repellant)

When you've got the kemo look but are not on chemo - it's time for Fall Fight Fortifying Shampoo by Garnier bitchez.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 09:21 | 3271274 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

Long Parabellum

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 23:59 | 3273033 prains
prains's picture

This sounds exactly like a problem Mitt Romney could have fixed what a shame




Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:33 | 3270563 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I just purchased 500 rounds of 7.62X39 and 1280 rounds of 7.62X25 Tokarev. Happy to see ammo starting to flow again.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:49 | 3270595 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Really? Because virtually every online merchant is completely sold out of just about all types of rifle ammo. 5.56 seems available at 80¢ a round, and 7.62 is going for a buck a round. Pistol ammo seems slightly more available, FMJ hard to find, HP available but starting around 65¢/round.

However I did see some 5.56 on the shelves at Cabelas for 50¢ a round today, although it was limit 200 rounds/customer.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:52 | 3270601 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I signed up with Ammunition to go and received an e-mail they had just received a shipment. I jumped on it. Perhaps it's sold out again?

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:07 | 3270629 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Their website shows nothing in stock. They must have sold the entire load to their email subscriber list.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:23 | 3270647 exsanguine
exsanguine's picture

The Fleet Farm near me had some .45acp in stock this morning.

Blazer steel: 50rd for $20.

Lots of JHP 45 for .60-90c per round

They also had a shipment of surplus 7.62x54r spam cans, 640 for $109



Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:45 | 3270682 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I remember when the spam cans were $40 apiece. Still, can't complain about rifle ammo at 15¢/round, even if it is corrosive.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 22:51 | 3270833 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

The one I can't find anywhere is 22LR. Luckily I was stacking before all the craziness. In fact I sold some of the 500 value packs at $60 apiece on a gun selling website.  

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 00:38 | 3270998 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

i can't find any either and it's starting to piss me off.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:12 | 3271224 Rusty Trombone
Rusty Trombone's picture - but you've gotta be ready to pull the trigger immediately - which in many cases mean having an account already set up with the sellers - ammo is flying out faster than greased owl shit.

And stay away from Natchez Shooters - they are fucking plenty of people.

Best I've nailed so far is .223 at Cabela's for .53 a round for 55gr FMJ

What you really want is the XM855 62gr. steel core - snatch it up if you can find it.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:55 | 3271349 dtwn
dtwn's picture

7.62 36 cpr @ Wideners:|830|852

They've had it in stock repeatedly, the panic is slowing.  Ammo is available if you're quick when certain sites get it in stock.  Follow the ammo threads at Arfcom:

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!