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Your Complete, 10-Step Italian Election Guide

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While we have discussed the strategic implications of this tomorrow's critical Italian elections previously  (An Italian "Hung Parliament" - Europe's Biggest Political Risk), the actual chronology of events of tomorrow's Italian elections which proceed through Monday is somewhat nebulous. So courtesy of JPM's Alex White, here is the complete 10 step walk-thru of what to expect starting tomorrow, and ending, perhaps, with the appointment of a new President in May, unless of course there is a slight detour...

The following is an indicative outline of how events may unfold in Italy over the coming days. Some significant differences and delays are possible.

  1. Sunday/Monday: Electors (age 18+ for the Chamber, age 25+ for the Senate) are able to cast their vote from 8.00am to 10.00pm on Sunday, or from 7.00am to 3.00pm on Monday.
  2. Sunday/Monday: The turnout will be counted and should be published three times on Sunday (at 12 noon, 7.00pm and 10.00pm) and once on Monday when polls close (3.00pm). Some commentators may make rough projections on Sunday based on turnout, which might provide some clues as to the direction of polls (a low turnout may hurt Berlusconi for example)
  3. Monday Afternoon: Vote counting will begin as soon as polls close at 3:00 p.m. (2.00pm London, 9.00am NY) on Monday in the following order: Senate, Chamber, regional positions (in Lombardia, Lazio, Molise). Broadcasters will be making predictions through the afternoon. We should get some (likely inaccurate) polls after the close.
  4. Monday Evening: Some initial estimates are expected for the first time around 4.30pm Monday for the Senate, 6.30pm for the Chamber (local time) - possibly slightly later.
  5. Monday Evening: For the Senate, interim updates may be released every 30 minutes until 50% of the count is completed. When 50% of the count is completed a first estimate of the distribution of seats should be announced (likely around 6.30-7.00pm or later).
  6. Monday Evening: For the Chamber, the first estimates may appear at 6.30pm, with updates every half hour until 50% of the count is completed and an initial estimate given (likely after 7.30-8.00pm or later)
  7. Monday/Tuesday: We expect to have a good indication of the Senate and Chamber numbers late on Monday night (possibly by around 11.00pm). Formal results for the Chamber may not come through until first thing on Tuesday morning (with the regional positions being announced on Tuesday late afternoon). In the previous election, both sets of counts were 90% complete by 11.00pm on election night.
  8. Tuesday: Early (informal) discussion on possible Government formation may begin on Tuesday (formal talks will wait until the President gives a mandate). The process of Government formation may take some weeks, but it should be clear on Tuesday whether Bersani-Monti have enough seats between them to build a coalition.
  9. March: Election of the presidents of the Chamber and Senate usually happens within 2-3 weeks and the Prime Minister should be in place by end of March at the latest. There will be lots of noise over this period; but the result should not be in doubt if the parties have the numbers they need (uncertainty would obviously dominate in the case of a hung parliament).
  10. May: A new President of the Republic will be appointed to replace President Napolitano in May.
 

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Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:39 | 3269762 MrX
MrX's picture

Pray for an end to faith: http://vimeo.com/channels/philiac/15056028

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 11:53 | 3269773 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Pope Bunga-Bunga I? LOL

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:48 | 3270593 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

It will never happen he like girls not little boys.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:52 | 3270600 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

They won't do it to him because he likes it.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 11:54 | 3269774 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The Goldman Sachs mafia gonna win!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:14 | 3269818 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

with the help of diebold

The Goldman Sachs mafia gonna win

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 11:53 | 3269775 Uskatex
Uskatex's picture

A short excerpt from Beppe Grillo's today post on his site:

Warlike words

...Words that had been abandoned for a long time, which had lost their meaning, have become powerful weapons we are using to change everything, to overturn an artificial reality where finance became economics, lie became truth,  war became peace, dictatorship became democracy. Warlike words sounding new and old at the same time, such as community, honesty, participation, solidarity, sustainability are spreading like a wave of thunder, and are arriving everywhere destroying the old policy.

Hurray for M5S!!!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:09 | 3269803 fudge
fudge's picture

Words without actions are the assassins of idealism - Herbie Hoover

 

Bussiness as usual after this election.

 .

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:58 | 3269867 Uskatex
Uskatex's picture

Well, one of the mantras of Grillo and his party is "if you vote us and then expect we do the work for you, then do not vote us! You must join the movement and take your responsibilities to change things!".

I understand that it is easier to say than to do, but it is very different from anything said by politicians up to now. It is a call to actions.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:21 | 3269907 fudge
fudge's picture

Lets hope then that the call is answered and change does happen.

I have a neighbor who is elegible to cast his vote, he'd like to see Grillo at least be part of coalition.. and he'd get my vote if that were possible.

 

Good Luck

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:58 | 3270608 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Hoover would know.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 11:55 | 3269780 jimijon
jimijon's picture

Go Grillo and Bunga Bunga!!!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:02 | 3269795 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

If it scares Joe Weisenthal...sign me up.

[Thanks Mish]

"Joe Weisenthal on the Business Insider writes "I Have Seen The Scariest Chart In Europe".

The chart Weisenthal refers to is from Google Trends. It shows a surge in searches on Beppe Grillo. Weisenthal says ...

Grillo is a comedian-turned-politician who is doing shockingly well the Italian elections (coming up this Sunday and Monday) by running on an aggressive anti-bank, euro-skeptic platform.

He's capitalizing on the deep frustration that exists in Italy due to the weak economy, and the perception that the current government is too corrupt and cozy with banks. Were he to gain a sizable block in the upcoming parliament, he represents a pretty serious threat.

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#qDUpP13vMhAUyh8h.99 "
(Just quick blurb at Mish's + The Chart)
Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:49 | 3271345 DOT
DOT's picture

Stuart Smalley for President.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:07 | 3269802 valkir
valkir's picture

If bunga is elected for new pope,world finaly will have pope,who like  ladies,not young boys...

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:10 | 3269811 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

Can I hang out with you guys for a few days?

I'v been temporarily banned from Politics.ie for having the audacity to attempt to talk about the hiariously blatent criminality that is the "liquidation" of one Anglo Irish Bank, we don't do Free Speech in Ireland, it's not allowed,

So I might hide out here for a while and laugh at the Italian farce,

If that's ok with you lot:)

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:32 | 3269841 nightshiftsucks
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Rebels are welcome here Ribeye but to truly fit in you have to say fuck you Bernanke.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:41 | 3269853 MrX
MrX's picture

Fuck you Bernanke

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:02 | 3269876 Pure Evil
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If you have to ask permission then your presence is not allowed.

This is Fight Club!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 16:09 | 3270158 Edward Fiatski
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Rule 1: You don't talk about Fight Club.
Rule 2: See rule 1.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:10 | 3269884 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

Who is this Bernank that you speak of?

Is he the bearded one who gets bullied by that evil Dr Paul person?

Why do you dislike him, I thought he was the nice man who makes all the Dollars in his big Fed Factory, surely you like Dollars?

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:02 | 3269991 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Dollars? Naaaah.  We like real money.  The European paper is prettier and softer.  When the time comes and it's all worthless, you'll be glad to have the softer and prettier stuff.  Better to use for wallpaper and asswipe. 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 16:31 | 3270197 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

US$ looks so easy to counterfeit compared to EUR or even most banana republics multi colored, holographic, watermarked notes. 

Imagine waking up one day and... ... The order is given that all US currency must be converted to "NEW US$" within 6 months...

Can you imagine the black market USD's, and under the table unreportable shoe boxes of USD's that would have to be absorbed or abandoned!!! That would sop up some of the printing.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 19:56 | 3270508 Cap Matifou
Cap Matifou's picture

"all US currency must be converted to "NEW US$" within 6 months"

Other countries have given the people mere hours or a weekend to do the swap or loose everything. See the east german currency reform of 1957.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 17:47 | 3270338 agent default
agent default's picture

I think you will find that a new Euro note is far less absorbing than the dollar.  The old used ones are quite similar to the USD.  Don't ask me how I know this. 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 10:56 | 3271350 DOT
DOT's picture

You are using them wrong. The CBs have agreed to value the new nuage fancy fiats by a "real world" reference. To find out the value of a note just burn it and measure the BTUs.  FX gonna be HOT.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:19 | 3269900 H8Fiat
H8Fiat's picture

Long time lurker and proud to say "Fuck you Bernanke".

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 17:48 | 3270342 agent default
agent default's picture

It this a "Fuck you Bernanke" cascade fuck thread?  We should start one.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:41 | 3269954 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Fuck you very much, bernanke.

Never gets old, does it?

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:58 | 3269989 Confundido
Confundido's picture

FUCK YOU, BERNANKE!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:27 | 3270016 jldpc
jldpc's picture

Of course this is all one big joke - about FY Bernake; we love him, we adore him, we hope every day for his success -- as he defines it. You see we believe that the only way to promote the common good is to promote revolution and the ultimate and complete destruction of the banksters and their politician enablers. The culture of credit, lies, and excess greed without conscience has taken away all that we want America to stand for; and be like for our children. But we are the few; and although well armed, we are no match for the puppet military (wasted on foreign wars) -- although we are proud of their courage and devotion to (misguided) duty. [Except for a few skunky generals and admirals tha tare only blood suckers of the politicians). Since we are no match in arms or influence buying; we accept Bernake as the most likely cause of the ultimate downfall, and hopefully rebirth. It is as simple as you cannot cure excessive debt with more debt (no rational hope or method to ever pay it off). The birth of credit cards started it. The average American man and woman in America is $8K in hock to the banks; the average big bank is several $T in hock to other players in the game. Our only hope - desire - is that we live long enough to witness the final days and are able to rejoice as we see them without their shirts on.  Up the Irish. Only bunch who have not left their borders to attack anyone.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:43 | 3269961 quid pro quo
quid pro quo's picture

Only if you bring the Guinness

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:54 | 3269980 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Of course you're welcome, but it is Fight Club and prepare to put on your big boy boxers and smack it out.  Remember that just because we want to beat the shit out of you, it doesn't mean that we don't love you.

Oh, and as a cultural thing, it's considered polite at ZH to say "fuck you bernanke" on a regular basis. Kinda like saying "cheers" in Britain or "ciao" in Italy.  If you prefer to say "fuck you legarde" that would probably be OK given the international contingent here. 

Might you also explain what the douche banksters in Ireland are doing? Anything new?         

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 15:26 | 3270086 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

Oh we're having great fun over here in Ireland, pretty much our entire banking system is nationalised, there's not even a notional separation between the politicians and the banks, they're opening appointing party hacks to the boards, all ye can do is laugh at this stage,

The entire economy is suffocating, and would collapse completely if we weren't being sent truckloads of cash from Berlin, we're basically a country on welfare,

Ireland, just like the rest the EU, is totally fckd, the quicker the end comes the better, unfortunatly, that's also likely to mean conflict,

France is the next country for the chop, that tyre guy Grizz was dead right in that letter he wrote, and Hollandaise is going to destroy France, he's a very dangerous man,

And in Europe, the people don't have any guns, none, oh dear,

Now, if you'll excuse me, it's dinner time here, so I'm off to fry up some horseburgers, yummy:)

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 09:11 | 3271268 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Hope you enjoyed your whinny-burgers.  While our banksters are in control of our political system, it is a tad more opaque than direct appointment.  But not much. And we do have our guns. I'd say there's one for every man, woman, and child.  And thankfully it's become easier and more culturally accepted to carry them in public within the last 10-15 years.

Ireland on welfare?  Sounds like our major cities. 

Please feel free to check on in from time to time. Welcome to ZH. 

Oh, and before I forget: fuck you bernanke.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:12 | 3269813 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Is this for the new Pope or Prime Minister?

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:00 | 3270612 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Does it matter? They all claim to be doing "God's work".

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:13 | 3269815 falak pema
falak pema's picture

holysmoke! 

What color of smoke will come out of those debt rampaging, lira singing, recession chiming, forza italia smoke stacks? 

Pink gay lobby or gray drab and soggy? 

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:22 | 3269823 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Pink with red, and black spots ?

If you can't beat them, join them.

Bunga Bunga.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:32 | 3269842 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I'm not sure of its color but I'm pretty sure it will smell of burning bodies before its over.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:01 | 3270615 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Most assuredly brown.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:30 | 3269836 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Tyler. You forgot to photo shop for a pair of devils horns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:34 | 3269845 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

Like my dad said, Italians have the choice between two comedians, a communist and a charlatan.

AVANTI!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 21:01 | 3270616 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

WTF. That's two more choices than we got!

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 12:39 | 3269848 butchee
butchee's picture

Inter play AC in the Milan derby Sunday.  Bunga Bunga owns AC, and just brought Balotelli to the team, who also just beat Barcelona in the Champions League this week.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:06 | 3269868 HD
HD's picture

Financial markets are not the only things easily manipulated by TPTB. Democracy requires integrity and accountability - so no chance in hell the bankers wont get exactly what they want.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 20:59 | 3270610 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Democracy requires the suspension of all critical thinking abilities.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 13:56 | 3269983 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Isn't it fascinating how these events seemingly are always clustered together, i.e. UK rating downgrade, sequester, elections? Surely it isn't happenstance, nah, couldn't be.

 

 

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:32 | 3270022 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Good point.  It's about time that the Tylers quit with the bitching and moaning started running for office.  A ZH political party?  I like it!

Tyler Durden for president

LongSoupLine for VP

George Washington for SecDef

Bruce Krasting for Sec Treas

WilliamBanzai7 for SecState 

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 17:38 | 3270320 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Run all 5 as 1 ticket.

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:23 | 3270011 World of Debt
World of Debt's picture

Hilarious new video/song: World of Debt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrHiYxDbnMY

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:30 | 3270021 farooq902
farooq902's picture

Joe "The CNBC wannabee @ BI" is making negative remarks @ ZH regarding Italy.

http://www.businessinsider.com/beppe-grillo-rallying-in-italian-election...

Just lost all respect for BI. 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 15:37 | 3270107 CombustibleAssets
CombustibleAssets's picture

Don't marginalize Beppe. Humor is powerful weapon in politics and Mr Grillo knows how to wield it. This is why he's drawing a crowd. He's giving the "piccolo ragazzo" something to believe in.

And BI is showing that they believe ZH could be a political force in this country which should give everyone pause.

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 17:26 | 3270297 smacker
smacker's picture

 

 

Maybe Joe Weisenthal would apologise for his disparaging remarks about ZH if he received a few thousand disapproving e-mails:

<jweisenthal@businessinsider.com>

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 14:48 | 3270032 falak pema
falak pema's picture

tabloid caricaturisation of ZH in the context of the Italy elections :

Imagine An Election Where ZeroHedge Was Surging In The Polls, And Had 100,000 People Coming To His Rallies

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/beppe-grillo-rallying-in-italian-election-2013-2#ixzz2LkX2cCAQ

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 15:28 | 3270093 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'm rooting for the comedian.

To be a comedian you have to have a sense of humor, and to have a sense of humor you have to understand bullshit.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 08:43 | 3271251 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

The Burlesqueconi Show

 

With Merkel, Monti and Hollande have ringside seats watching the action!!!!

 

 

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 17:18 | 3270283 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

I'm holding my vote until someone starts a Bankers-onto-a-bonfire party. 

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