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Your Complete, 10-Step Italian Election Guide
While we have discussed the strategic implications of this tomorrow's critical Italian elections previously (An Italian "Hung Parliament" - Europe's Biggest Political Risk), the actual chronology of events of tomorrow's Italian elections which proceed through Monday is somewhat nebulous. So courtesy of JPM's Alex White, here is the complete 10 step walk-thru of what to expect starting tomorrow, and ending, perhaps, with the appointment of a new President in May, unless of course there is a slight detour...
The following is an indicative outline of how events may unfold in Italy over the coming days. Some significant differences and delays are possible.
- Sunday/Monday: Electors (age 18+ for the Chamber, age 25+ for the Senate) are able to cast their vote from 8.00am to 10.00pm on Sunday, or from 7.00am to 3.00pm on Monday.
- Sunday/Monday: The turnout will be counted and should be published three times on Sunday (at 12 noon, 7.00pm and 10.00pm) and once on Monday when polls close (3.00pm). Some commentators may make rough projections on Sunday based on turnout, which might provide some clues as to the direction of polls (a low turnout may hurt Berlusconi for example)
- Monday Afternoon: Vote counting will begin as soon as polls close at 3:00 p.m. (2.00pm London, 9.00am NY) on Monday in the following order: Senate, Chamber, regional positions (in Lombardia, Lazio, Molise). Broadcasters will be making predictions through the afternoon. We should get some (likely inaccurate) polls after the close.
- Monday Evening: Some initial estimates are expected for the first time around 4.30pm Monday for the Senate, 6.30pm for the Chamber (local time) - possibly slightly later.
- Monday Evening: For the Senate, interim updates may be released every 30 minutes until 50% of the count is completed. When 50% of the count is completed a first estimate of the distribution of seats should be announced (likely around 6.30-7.00pm or later).
- Monday Evening: For the Chamber, the first estimates may appear at 6.30pm, with updates every half hour until 50% of the count is completed and an initial estimate given (likely after 7.30-8.00pm or later)
- Monday/Tuesday: We expect to have a good indication of the Senate and Chamber numbers late on Monday night (possibly by around 11.00pm). Formal results for the Chamber may not come through until first thing on Tuesday morning (with the regional positions being announced on Tuesday late afternoon). In the previous election, both sets of counts were 90% complete by 11.00pm on election night.
- Tuesday: Early (informal) discussion on possible Government formation may begin on Tuesday (formal talks will wait until the President gives a mandate). The process of Government formation may take some weeks, but it should be clear on Tuesday whether Bersani-Monti have enough seats between them to build a coalition.
- March: Election of the presidents of the Chamber and Senate usually happens within 2-3 weeks and the Prime Minister should be in place by end of March at the latest. There will be lots of noise over this period; but the result should not be in doubt if the parties have the numbers they need (uncertainty would obviously dominate in the case of a hung parliament).
- May: A new President of the Republic will be appointed to replace President Napolitano in May.
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Pray for an end to faith: http://vimeo.com/channels/philiac/15056028
Pope Bunga-Bunga I? LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVrLIGbIBSI
It will never happen he like girls not little boys.
They won't do it to him because he likes it.
The Goldman Sachs mafia gonna win!
with the help of diebold
A short excerpt from Beppe Grillo's today post on his site:
Warlike words
...Words that had been abandoned for a long time, which had lost their meaning, have become powerful weapons we are using to change everything, to overturn an artificial reality where finance became economics, lie became truth, war became peace, dictatorship became democracy. Warlike words sounding new and old at the same time, such as community, honesty, participation, solidarity, sustainability are spreading like a wave of thunder, and are arriving everywhere destroying the old policy.
Hurray for M5S!!!
Words without actions are the assassins of idealism - Herbie Hoover
Bussiness as usual after this election.
.
Well, one of the mantras of Grillo and his party is "if you vote us and then expect we do the work for you, then do not vote us! You must join the movement and take your responsibilities to change things!".
I understand that it is easier to say than to do, but it is very different from anything said by politicians up to now. It is a call to actions.
Lets hope then that the call is answered and change does happen.
I have a neighbor who is elegible to cast his vote, he'd like to see Grillo at least be part of coalition.. and he'd get my vote if that were possible.
Good Luck
Hoover would know.
Go Grillo and Bunga Bunga!!!
If it scares Joe Weisenthal...sign me up.
[Thanks Mish]
(Just quick blurb at Mish's + The Chart)Stuart Smalley for President.
If bunga is elected for new pope,world finaly will have pope,who like ladies,not young boys...
Can I hang out with you guys for a few days?
I'v been temporarily banned from Politics.ie for having the audacity to attempt to talk about the hiariously blatent criminality that is the "liquidation" of one Anglo Irish Bank, we don't do Free Speech in Ireland, it's not allowed,
So I might hide out here for a while and laugh at the Italian farce,
If that's ok with you lot:)
Rebels are welcome here Ribeye but to truly fit in you have to say fuck you Bernanke.
Fuck you Bernanke
If you have to ask permission then your presence is not allowed.
This is Fight Club!
Rule 1: You don't talk about Fight Club.
Rule 2: See rule 1.
Who is this Bernank that you speak of?
Is he the bearded one who gets bullied by that evil Dr Paul person?
Why do you dislike him, I thought he was the nice man who makes all the Dollars in his big Fed Factory, surely you like Dollars?
Dollars? Naaaah. We like real money. The European paper is prettier and softer. When the time comes and it's all worthless, you'll be glad to have the softer and prettier stuff. Better to use for wallpaper and asswipe.
US$ looks so easy to counterfeit compared to EUR or even most banana republics multi colored, holographic, watermarked notes.
Imagine waking up one day and... ... The order is given that all US currency must be converted to "NEW US$" within 6 months...
Can you imagine the black market USD's, and under the table unreportable shoe boxes of USD's that would have to be absorbed or abandoned!!! That would sop up some of the printing.
"all US currency must be converted to "NEW US$" within 6 months"
Other countries have given the people mere hours or a weekend to do the swap or loose everything. See the east german currency reform of 1957.
I think you will find that a new Euro note is far less absorbing than the dollar. The old used ones are quite similar to the USD. Don't ask me how I know this.
You are using them wrong. The CBs have agreed to value the new nuage fancy fiats by a "real world" reference. To find out the value of a note just burn it and measure the BTUs. FX gonna be HOT.
Long time lurker and proud to say "Fuck you Bernanke".
It this a "Fuck you Bernanke" cascade fuck thread? We should start one.
Fuck you very much, bernanke.
Never gets old, does it?
FUCK YOU, BERNANKE!
Of course this is all one big joke - about FY Bernake; we love him, we adore him, we hope every day for his success -- as he defines it. You see we believe that the only way to promote the common good is to promote revolution and the ultimate and complete destruction of the banksters and their politician enablers. The culture of credit, lies, and excess greed without conscience has taken away all that we want America to stand for; and be like for our children. But we are the few; and although well armed, we are no match for the puppet military (wasted on foreign wars) -- although we are proud of their courage and devotion to (misguided) duty. [Except for a few skunky generals and admirals tha tare only blood suckers of the politicians). Since we are no match in arms or influence buying; we accept Bernake as the most likely cause of the ultimate downfall, and hopefully rebirth. It is as simple as you cannot cure excessive debt with more debt (no rational hope or method to ever pay it off). The birth of credit cards started it. The average American man and woman in America is $8K in hock to the banks; the average big bank is several $T in hock to other players in the game. Our only hope - desire - is that we live long enough to witness the final days and are able to rejoice as we see them without their shirts on. Up the Irish. Only bunch who have not left their borders to attack anyone.
Only if you bring the Guinness
Of course you're welcome, but it is Fight Club and prepare to put on your big boy boxers and smack it out. Remember that just because we want to beat the shit out of you, it doesn't mean that we don't love you.
Oh, and as a cultural thing, it's considered polite at ZH to say "fuck you bernanke" on a regular basis. Kinda like saying "cheers" in Britain or "ciao" in Italy. If you prefer to say "fuck you legarde" that would probably be OK given the international contingent here.
Might you also explain what the douche banksters in Ireland are doing? Anything new?
Oh we're having great fun over here in Ireland, pretty much our entire banking system is nationalised, there's not even a notional separation between the politicians and the banks, they're opening appointing party hacks to the boards, all ye can do is laugh at this stage,
The entire economy is suffocating, and would collapse completely if we weren't being sent truckloads of cash from Berlin, we're basically a country on welfare,
Ireland, just like the rest the EU, is totally fckd, the quicker the end comes the better, unfortunatly, that's also likely to mean conflict,
France is the next country for the chop, that tyre guy Grizz was dead right in that letter he wrote, and Hollandaise is going to destroy France, he's a very dangerous man,
And in Europe, the people don't have any guns, none, oh dear,
Now, if you'll excuse me, it's dinner time here, so I'm off to fry up some horseburgers, yummy:)
Hope you enjoyed your whinny-burgers. While our banksters are in control of our political system, it is a tad more opaque than direct appointment. But not much. And we do have our guns. I'd say there's one for every man, woman, and child. And thankfully it's become easier and more culturally accepted to carry them in public within the last 10-15 years.
Ireland on welfare? Sounds like our major cities.
Please feel free to check on in from time to time. Welcome to ZH.
Oh, and before I forget: fuck you bernanke.
Is this for the new Pope or Prime Minister?
Does it matter? They all claim to be doing "God's work".
holysmoke!
What color of smoke will come out of those debt rampaging, lira singing, recession chiming, forza italia smoke stacks?
Pink gay lobby or gray drab and soggy?
Pink with red, and black spots ?
If you can't beat them, join them.
Bunga Bunga.
I'm not sure of its color but I'm pretty sure it will smell of burning bodies before its over.
Most assuredly brown.
Tyler. You forgot to photo shop for a pair of devils horns.
Like my dad said, Italians have the choice between two comedians, a communist and a charlatan.
AVANTI!
WTF. That's two more choices than we got!
Inter play AC in the Milan derby Sunday. Bunga Bunga owns AC, and just brought Balotelli to the team, who also just beat Barcelona in the Champions League this week.
Financial markets are not the only things easily manipulated by TPTB. Democracy requires integrity and accountability - so no chance in hell the bankers wont get exactly what they want.
Democracy requires the suspension of all critical thinking abilities.
Isn't it fascinating how these events seemingly are always clustered together, i.e. UK rating downgrade, sequester, elections? Surely it isn't happenstance, nah, couldn't be.
Beppe Grillo=Zerohedge?
http://www.businessinsider.com/beppe-grillo-rallying-in-italian-election...
Good point. It's about time that the Tylers quit with the bitching and moaning started running for office. A ZH political party? I like it!
Tyler Durden for president
LongSoupLine for VP
George Washington for SecDef
Bruce Krasting for Sec Treas
WilliamBanzai7 for SecState
Run all 5 as 1 ticket.
Hilarious new video/song: World of Debt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrHiYxDbnMY
Joe "The CNBC wannabee @ BI" is making negative remarks @ ZH regarding Italy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/beppe-grillo-rallying-in-italian-election...
Just lost all respect for BI.
Don't marginalize Beppe. Humor is powerful weapon in politics and Mr Grillo knows how to wield it. This is why he's drawing a crowd. He's giving the "piccolo ragazzo" something to believe in.
And BI is showing that they believe ZH could be a political force in this country which should give everyone pause.
Maybe Joe Weisenthal would apologise for his disparaging remarks about ZH if he received a few thousand disapproving e-mails:
<jweisenthal@businessinsider.com>
tabloid caricaturisation of ZH in the context of the Italy elections :
Imagine An Election Where ZeroHedge Was Surging In The Polls, And Had 100,000 People Coming To His Rallies
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/beppe-grillo-rallying-in-italian-election-2013-2#ixzz2LkX2cCAQ
I'm rooting for the comedian.
To be a comedian you have to have a sense of humor, and to have a sense of humor you have to understand bullshit.
The Burlesqueconi Show
With Merkel, Monti and Hollande have ringside seats watching the action!!!!
I'm holding my vote until someone starts a Bankers-onto-a-bonfire party.