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Andy Lees: "Emerging Markets Unable To Continue The Heavy Lifting"

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After his departure from UBS, Andy Lees went radiosilent while setting up his own research company, AML Macro. We are now happy to be able to bring to our readers' the occasional report from Lees, who has traditionally been one of our favorite macro analysts, and whose insights are usually months ahead of the maintstream.

Emerging Markets Unable To Continue The Heavy Lifting

AML Macro Limited

In the last few days we have seen reports suggesting Brazilian household debt and service payments are weighing on growth, that Southeast Asia’s commercial credit is approaching its pre-1997 financial crisis peak of 75% GDP, and that South Korea’s household debt has reached 164% of disposable income compared with 138% in the US at the start of the housing crisis. Chinese debt rose 15% in excess of GDP last year from 191% to 206%. Its corporate cash flow is around 50% of profitability whilst loan growth is way in excess of the banks’ return on equity meaning the growth is dependent on a continual supply of new capital to the banks. Over the last few years whilst the developed economies have struggled to reduce their debt relative to GDP – (the most successful of the major economies has probably been the US which has taken non-financial sector debt down from a high of 253.15% GDP to 248.18% GDP) – the developing economies have taken advantage of cheap funding to inflate their debt levels dramatically, leaving the global debt position worse than in 2007.

Brazilian households spent 21.3% of their income paying debt in November, close to the record 22.6% in October 2011, and double the 10.6% in the US. Household debt has doubled since 2005 to 44.6% of annual income as households have borrowed to buy cars and household goods etc. Default rates are now at 30 month highs, weighing on economic growth. Falling unemployment and interest rates have unleashed unprecedented demand from Brazil’s growing middle class in recent years, encouraged by tax breaks and credit incentives, but rising prices are now leading to a drop in real wages making the accumulated debt unsustainable. Late last year the IMF released a report entitled Non-Financial firms in Latin America: A Source of Vulnerability? It suggested that rising corporate debt levels are increasing the risk of firms becoming exposed to a funding shock. Leverage has risen since the Lehman crisis, with the increase in debt burden evident from the rising debt-to-sales ratio. As West LB says of Brazil, “I think these numbers show the exhaustion of a growth model based on consumption. The government will have to find other ways to stimulate the economy”.

South Korea’s household debt ended 2012 at KRW959.4trn. Debt reached 164% of disposable income in 2011 compared with 138% in the US at the start of the housing crisis. The quality of the debt is also deteriorating according to the Samsung Economic Research Institute. The president needs “measures to stymie the rising danger of a massive default crisis”. Hi Investment says the government will have to bear most of the cost of the overdue loan and mortgage payments, which will worsen the budget deficit and government debt. With debt reaching dangerous levels, South Korea desperately needs to boost exports otherwise growth will slump lifting default rates. Even before we consider the implications of the currency war, where is South Korea going to export to as economy after economy has reached their debt limits. Increasingly, because of insufficient productivity growth, the only possible buyer of their goods is going to be the Fed or some other central bank with printed money. 

Reuters reports that Southeast Asia’s heady growth in recent years has been debt fuelled, and is beginning to resemble the unsustainable mid-1990’s boom. Authorities are shy to raise rates as they want to maintain growth as long as possible, and presumably they know as well as anyone, the risks to the outstanding debt if the economy slows. Growth is strong across the region. Whilst the credit intensity of the economies is not as pronounced as China’s, commercial credit as proportion of GDP for the region’s 5 largest economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines – is approaching its pre-1997 crisis peak of 75%. It suggests a few more years of credit-fuelled growth will make a repeat of a 1997 financial crisis a distinct possibility. Presumably an early unwind of QE by the Fed would bring forward this date.

China’s ability to keep sustaining growth by running imbalances with the rest of the world has not only pushed the developed economies’ debt to unsustainable levels, but it is reaching its limits with the emerging markets as well. Unfortunately China won’t be able to continue running imbalances as the rest of the world simply cannot afford to buy its exports. The cumulative global misallocation of capital means world productivity growth is simply not strong enough to sustain the scale of growth the world has been used to.   

China’s total factor productivity growth has slumped since 2007, requiring nearly 1/3rd more capital relative to GDP than in 2007 to achieve a 35% lower growth rate. The excess capital thrown off has slumped with its current account surplus falling from 10.7% GDP to 2.6% GDP. With the developed economies already choked by debt, China redirected its surplus capital through a change in the terms of trade to those commodity producing countries that could afford it, but the consequence has been soaring emerging market debt levels.  For China to maintain GDP growth given its declining productivity growth, it will have no choice but to consume down its current account surplus and stock of FX reserves. If countries haven’t got sufficient productivity to take on more debt, they are certainly not going to be able to pay down existing debt unless the social and political system is strong enough to accept the austerity it would infer. Instead China will have to accept freshly printed money from the Fed or some other central bank rather than the assets it thought it had gained access to.

The fact that we are moving to currency wars would seem to be a tacit acknowledgement that this is now the case; the game has changed from one of absolute growth to one of relative growth within a productivity constrained world. A recent report highlighted that since 2005 global liquids (oil) production excluding ethanol has risen by just 2.2mbpd, leaving a significant shortfall against the previous trend. Over the period exports had fallen by 1.9m bpd and “available net exports”, defined as global net exports minus China and India’s combined imports, fell from 40m bpd in 2005 to 35m bpd in 2011, helping to explain stagnant global GDP growth, particularly outside the US. A simple extrapolation of the trend would imply that by 2030 China and India would be consuming 100% of global net exports. This is not going to happen, but it highlights that China and India’s growth is becoming increasingly expensive to achieve as there is simply not the global scale of productivity needed to drive the kind of numbers we need –  (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-02-18/commentary-the-export-capacity-index). With the oil sector’s expenditure now 1.5 times cash flow, the oil price may not be sucking capital from the rest of the economy, but clearly the oil companies are.  

In 2007, developed economies’ debt reached its limit relative to GDP. Five years later the world is reaching the same constraint. The misallocation of capital has taken on global proportions with emerging market debt soaring relative to GDP.  Whilst China has some small capacity to boost growth a little further, Japan clearly does not, and increasingly neither does Asia as a whole. Asia’s trade surplus (inclusive of India and Japan) has swung from a surplus of USD38.8bn in October 2007 to a deficit of USD12.7bn. Whilst international savings as measured by world FX reserves are still rising rapidly suggesting a surplus of capital being created, the picture is somewhat different when the Swiss foreign currency reserves are removed.

Asia’s (inclusive of India and Japan’s) trade deficit.

Japan’s income surplus is being consumed to finance its trade deficit, with the result that its international reinvestment rates are falling. Rather than Toyota NA reinvesting in plant and equipment, its income stream is being consumed by Japanese households who can no longer produce sufficient to sustain their own consumption, let alone pay down their debt. The consequence has been a USD162bn fall in Japan’s net foreign investments between 2009 and 2011 and a fall in the US gross investment ratio down to 15.48% GDP. In Japan itself the budget deficit is consuming more than half the gross savings, leaving people to question whether the net investment ratio is actually positive at all. The fact that Abe has targeted 2% inflation, the currency is falling and the BOJ is aggressively buying bonds to finance the budget has simply facilitated what would otherwise have been imposed by the markets as the current deficit increasingly means that Japan can no longer fund its own consumption, and therefore that consumption, or domestic investment, must gradually be priced out one way or another.

QE can only be described as genuinely effective if it lifts productivity sufficiently for debt to fall relative to GDP, which has clearly not been the case, at least not yet. Instead it has supported GDP, but at the cost of adding to debt and to the misallocation of capital, ie it has added to the scale of problems we face. It has only been successful in the sense that we have been blinded to the damage it is doing, which is in declining investment ratios in the developed world and collapsing return on investment in China. That’s not so bad if we can keep pushing back the day of reckoning. The difficulty arises when the damage becomes immediate, such that the government can no longer fool us into believing that everything is ok; the opportunity cost of strong future growth turns into an immediate loss of economic output, rising unemployment and deteriorating living standards.

In an interview on CNBC – (written up on zero hedge) - Stanley Druckenmiller highlights that since 1994 US entitlement spending has risen from 50% of federal outlays to 67%, and will rise by a further USD700bn over the next 4 years as demographics kick in. At the moment the market is blind to the damage it is doing, but as Stanley says a simple normalising of interest rates back to where they were before QE, would add an extra USD500bn a year to the government’s interest bill, somewhat putting the USD85bn sequester into perspective. He also reminds us of the irrationality of the financial markets by highlighting that the Greek bond market was perfectly fine until February 2010, but within 2 weeks it had collapsed.

The fact that we are moving to currency wars seems an acknowledgement that we are reaching the limits again. The fact that Brazil’s economy is choking from its debt-fuelled growth, or that people are now starting to talk about “the rising danger of a massive default crisis” in South Korea, or that Southeast Asia’s credit is approaching its pre-1997 peak of 75% GDP, suggests that we are getting close to the point where debt has once again reached its limit relative to GDP and the lost opportunity cost is about to become a real cost once again. With this in mind, whilst EU politicians may offer an extension to those countries missing their budget targets, do the financial markets still have the ability to facilitate that extension? Can sterling avoid its decline turning into a rout?

Some of the emerging market debt is relatively small and the necessary rebalancing of the economy should be relatively easy to achieve, but even if it is only a cyclical limit as oppose to the structural limits of the developed economies, it is coinciding at the same time and will add to the global problem. As data on world GDP growth would suggest, it is not just Brazil where the numbers show “the exhaustion of a growth model based on consumption”.

World GDP Growth

 

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Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:31 | 3271540 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

"The cumulative global misallocation of capital means world productivity growth is simply not strong enough to sustain the scale of growth the world has been used to."   

True dat.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:37 | 3271560 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Hey...who stepped on my cocaine?!"

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:32 | 3271542 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

Another name for "Death Panel": "Draft Board".

 

CW

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:39 | 3271566 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Another name for "Death Panel": "Claim denied."

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:39 | 3271563 falak pema
falak pema's picture

very good points; if the first world goes into prolonged economic tailspin what is the resilience of the BRICS and others to this deflationary spiral in 40-50 % of the world economy? 

 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:41 | 3271570 GMadScientist
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Depends on what the developing country is hawking...Brazil will still find a market for oil, but China et al are more broadly exposed to dips in trade.

 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:26 | 3271694 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the issue is that their growth is very consumer demand fueled and that requires net capital inflows via exports surplus  or via money printing; especially as their infrastructure investment needs concomitantly are huge. 

If the FW QE money liquidity pump dries up their momentum takes a hit or else they face massive inflation of their own money print. 

Their ablitiy to decouple is the issue.  I guess you feel Braaaaaaasil can do it! 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 02:59 | 3273322 StavropolJames
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Last time I looked, Russia was the "R" is BRICS.  Why is there no mention of Russia in the article?  Is it because it can handle the load and is bucking the trend?

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 14:23 | 3271826 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

We can help with Korea.  Just make what we want, guys, keep your prices low, and we will BUY, BUY, BUY your bearings.  And we don't need credit.  Just MAKE the pieces we need, we'll take it from there...

$$$

:)

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 14:24 | 3271829 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Even better...  Let me (us) sell to whomever we want...

$$$

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:52 | 3271596 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Yay, green shoots...

 

 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 12:53 | 3271597 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Removing bond vigilantes across the globe is what allows this kind of thing to happen.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:07 | 3271621 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

And that is why recessions/deflationary cycles need to be allowed to run their course...to clear out the malinvestment, the inefficient with over-capacity and non-productive equipment or labor, marginal businesses and organizations that are over indebted/over leveraged.  But no, idiot central planners want to keep pumping cheap liquidity so companies, financial institutions, and governments continue staggering forward like zombies rather than being liquidated and put out of their misery, or streamlined back to purpose and efficiency.  Everything dictated and run by a bumbling, bloated legacy State...just like the Soviet Union before its spectacular collapse.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 15:42 | 3271988 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Actually this is why inflationary currencies need to die, along with the misguided policies of corrupted politicians and central bankers.

I think we're witnessing the eventual death of sovereign currencies. It won't all go into the crapper all at once, it will be a long agonizing death with many new lows made.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:09 | 3271622 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Speaking of China here is Soros crying that China won't play along in the new world order. Listen to his language closely.

Make sure you have a moist towelette handy to wipe the puke from the sides of your mouth.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uYtdxpLr9Rw

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:14 | 3271640 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

He seems to tip off the key owner which would be the IMF (the top of the central banks) as the controller of the world by controlling all the currency through special drawing rights. He also claims they will use gold as an asset backing and have plenty of reserves. Something for the people with heads for finance to call out as complete bs or if it has any merit. Either way it sounds like Soros has a more sinister secondary purpose for this.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 13:26 | 3271690 davidsmith
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And yet the "recovery" in the U.S. is supposedly consumption-based.  Idiocy.  Overthrow the U.S. Government NOW!

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 16:29 | 3272108 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Meet me in DC with your men and arms when congress re adjourns

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 09:41 | 3273620 dunce
dunce's picture

It will do no good to shoot puppets, you have to target the puppet masters behind the curtains. Most of them are not in DC, these are your neighbhor hood Draculas that shun the light of day.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 14:00 | 3271782 SubjectivObject
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"Emerging Markets":  Greenfield corpratist rape of .... whatever's available.

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 14:05 | 3271790 joego1
joego1's picture

The world looks like a goose egg. Great reading!

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 19:03 | 3272423 jwthomps
jwthomps's picture

Thanks for the good data and analysis.  This augments my thinking greatly.

I suspect this means that the dollar rises in relative value and other assets fall for now.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 00:10 | 3273063 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Excellent explanation as to why the developing world has been able to maintain growth in spite of the global disaster unfolding.  It won't last

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 00:32 | 3273122 Luke 21
Luke 21's picture

Great Post! Thanks.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 02:56 | 3273318 StavropolJames
StavropolJames's picture

Interesting that Russia isn't mentioned here.  Is that because it's the one emerging market that CAN handle the load?

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