This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Is This The Chart That Everyone Is Concerned About?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We have seen this all before...

 

...it's never different this time. Of course, you should buy the dip; you invest for the long-term, right? VIX, schmix; Credit, schmedit; Gas prices, schmices; Macro, schmacro...

 

The last few times that VIX has seen such a 4-day low-to-high risk-flare were extremely significant events...

 

Credit markets have been flashing red for a month...

 

and we've seen that before too...

 

And we've seen what the catalyst for an equity rerating is before...

 

Macro seems to be sending clear signals too... that we've seen before...

 

But apart from that...BTFD (or in Abe's case STFR)

 

Charts: Bloomberg, Capital Context, and Goldman Sachs

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Holy fucking shit batman!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

NEED MOAR TONER OR THIS THING'S GONNA BLOW!!!!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:36 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Influential author N. N. Taleb (author of The Black Swan and the new Antifragile) has many doubts about the value of predictions and charts.  He says it is better to look at your RISKS and VULNERABILITIES rather than predict the future.

Nonetheless, the above charts DO look a little scary.  Owning some gold can help you feel a little safer.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

In the words of a wise man (*cough*football coach*cough*): "prognosis only after the match"...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Elliott Wave International has the charts that everyone should be concerned about.  This top is at the upper channel line of the run up in the stock market starting from the 1932 Great Depression low:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2013/02/dow-14000-world-war-three.html

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

These are not the charts you're looking for . . .

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:19 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

You didn't build that chart. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:12 | Link to Comment YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

^ Buy Gold and Silver

v Buy Gun(s) and Ammo

Needs some advice guys, I have enough scratch for another ounce of gold and 20  ounces of silver, or I can add to my gun/ammo collection at the show this weekend. Thoughts?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:24 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

My advice is stock up on dehydrated food:

http://www.yourfoodstorage.com/

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:54 | Link to Comment The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

Flacon's a solid guy I would take his advice if you have weapons and ammo all ready.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 06:43 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Buy the gold & silver & give us your address [or your favorite fishing hole]...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:27 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Buy food and morphine.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 06:45 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Hookers & Blow

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:36 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Buy bitchez, bitchez.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:58 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Bitchz have a very negative effect on NET. Wait for a real bottom. There's a lot of padding out there. When you look at the fundamentals and the opportunity costs, ownership may be over rated.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:09 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

I'll wait for a 20 year old bottom.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:46 | Link to Comment DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

Diversify. Buy 1 oz of gold and ammo for the guns you already have.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 02:45 | Link to Comment Freebird
Freebird's picture

or a half case of a good 30 yo single malt & a decent box of cubans...oh yeh or just a 30 yo Cuban for a week or two - after all we are all going to be dead for a very long time

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment marathonman
marathonman's picture

Was reading an article about a Bosnian's experience during the Yugoslav breakup.  With guns and ammo, you can acquire gold and silver.  When things got really desperate, roving gangs of unemployed men would loot, pillage, and steal to acquire whatever they could get away with.  It was incredibly dangerous.  Guns and ammo  +1.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:35 | Link to Comment legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

I logged in solely to say LOL

I appreciate your wit.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:03 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

This guy has some charts.:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wo7lTTGcdQ

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Their claim about impending war coincides with Ray Tomes and others' findings about nature and its cycles: war cycles align with solar activity cycles, and current solar maximum reaches its peak in 2014, so, expect heavy artillery shelling somewhere in the world (*cough*middle east*cough*) around that time - just saying...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

So, I was junked 3 times the other day for saying: "THIS IS IT" with regard to the Yen "discontinuity". But now you are two days later all saying "Holy MoFo...yammerYammeryammer". The following two days ZH has AGAIN shown its muscle reporting on Britian, Japan, etc swirling down the toilet. So, my little fairy princesses, enjoy the ride. Its going to be a very difficult ride into the furnaces of hell. In about a month it will be obvious what the "new pair-a-dime" holds for us. Until then, all your junks are belong to us.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

You got junked 3 times? 

 

You're doing it wrong..  Let me know when you get -100.  3 is nothing. :)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

I'm workin it bro, workin it!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 06:48 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Put the last 3 comments together & you're just about there... You guys should form a partnership...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:52 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

Don't junk me bro

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 02:43 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"Its going to be a very difficult ride into the furnaces of hell"

Nice! - Global Warming reloaded bitchez!!!

(Furnaces of hell my ass - it's cold as hell in Europe)


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 03:20 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

I would think that Europe is quite warm given all the fuckin' hot air your politicians keep exhaling. And there are so many of them! That globalist white collar welfare program is working very well for you! Maybe you need to burn a few politicians for heat, new source of heating energy. and a potential means of "sending a message" to Brussels.

/sarc off

In all sincerity, please prepare yourself and your family. This is going to be a flaming shit storm. A blitz on the markets, smoldering ruins in the aftermath. My thoughts and prayers are with you and yours.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 03:58 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"My thoughts and prayers are with you and yours"

Thank You friend, same to you and your family

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:36 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

 

"Its going to be a very difficult ride into the furnaces of hell"


Nice! - Global Warming reloaded bitchez!!!

(Furnaces of hell my ass - it's cold as hell in Europe)

"Its going to be a very difficult ride into the crevaces of hell"

Fixed.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:21 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

crevaces = crevices or cravaces = crevasses?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:54 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

oops, meant to say crevasses, obviously :P

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 03:14 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Thank you, all my ZeroHedge fans, for your junks. A man is known by his enemies. Indeedy so. Junk on, Garth!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 03:58 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

There is an old Zero Hedge tradition that junk in yo trunk is a badge of honour. I don't know how many here will remember that but it's in keeping with Hedge culture, kinda like blood on Fight Club. You can swallow a pint of blood before you get sick you know. The trick is to see how many junks you can carry while walking that fine line between insane & contrarian thinker.

So, in honour of your good comments here, I have hereby changed the Up vote I originally gave you to a Junk. Welcome to the Hedge son.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

nice avatar

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:27 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I always get "that" feeling when the roller coaster gets to the top.  I'm getting "that" feeling.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Gypsyducks
Gypsyducks's picture

The action felt strange this afternoon(monday) in equities and commodoties. One cannot fight the invisible hand...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 02:53 | Link to Comment dtwn
dtwn's picture

I think 'that' feeling will get much stronger in April/May.  Thats when the weather starts warming in Athens and precipitation decreases.  Things will get interesting when the unemployed youth can comfortably demonstrate/riot 24/7 in t-shirts and shorts.  Tick-tock on the Syntagma Square riot clock. . . . . .

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/GRXX0004

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:25 | Link to Comment FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I may initiate a small position in molotov cocktails and riot shields. Already am long futures in 7 11 size cups on the new York black mkt exchange (nybme)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 08:02 | Link to Comment thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

This chart is pretty self explanatory that says you are right.

http://www.insidertrade.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/InsiderSellBuyRat...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Holy underwear, we've got to protect our phoney baloney jobs, gentleman.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

They are killing the new Robin you know.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:07 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"We're gonna keep growing......Okay? And, obviously, I'll say it: 'If you're growing, you're not in recession, right?'. I mean, we all know that!"

- Henry "Hank" Paulson, fmr US Secretary of the Treasury and Goldman Sachs Stooge

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:13 | Link to Comment BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

watched Inside Job again last night.. watching his "performance" was great, second only to Glenn Hubbard's.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Speaking of "scare quotes":

"We're gonna keep "growing"......Okay? And, obviously, I'll say it: 'If you're "growing", you're not in "recession", right?'. I mean, we all "know" that!" *wink*

FIFY

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:25 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

I need to watch it again. I'll see if it's on Torrent. Oh there it is - looks like someone ripped the BluRay:

http://fenopy.se/torrent/inside+job+limited+bdrip+xvid+defaced/NjY1OTEyNg

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

I read this, imagining him twitching uncontrollably after each word. At least the Master Printer takes his meds to stay drugged & sedated during public appearances.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUZyxbO4kAI

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Whatever you do, don't look down! That's the killer, in cartoon movies - everything's fine until they look down, and they always look down, the idiots.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment jldpc
jldpc's picture

That caused me to almost die chocking from uncontrollable laughtor.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I almost dared a particularly cocky & bullish hedgefund manager to short VIX yesterday. Would have been sweet.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:00 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Seems too early to go all in doom just yet. Doesn't it?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:20 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Now is the time that they scare the sheep with a quick correction to be blamed on "The sequester."  After that, we walk up to where the can landed after this kick.

Same thing with the debt ceiling.

It is all about issuing more debt, and since now the government is responsible for all marginal debt issuance, any reduction is, for lack of a better word, bad.

They need a shock to give them cover to print MOAR otherwise people will see that it costs too much to drive to the market to get their ground up horse for meat loaf.

pods

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

OK, but keep an eye on Gold Stocks ... the little buggers seem to have wiggled out of "their" death grip for the moment and are running apeshit all over the garden. see: HGU ... up 4% today while gold barely budged. If they can keep rising on the expected general BTFD, they could be in for a hellacious catch-up rally here.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:14 | Link to Comment Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

I wouldn't get too excited about gold stocks quite yet.  When REAL liquidation happens, everything gets sold.  Go back and look what happened to gold stocks after the summer of 2008.

My guess is when SPX drops to 600, GDX will be back at 15.  I'll load back up then.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:43 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

I wouldn't touch gold and silver stox. They are still a derivative. When the Universal debtPonzi blows, most mines worldwide will be nationalized. PM stox will be as worthless as any other kind of financial paper. Buy physical Gold, silver...stack it at home. Then lead to defend same.   

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:30 | Link to Comment FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I contemplate a lot the miners vs phyzz decision. At 21 yr old I'm probably more willing to be more out on the 'risk curve' and thus on addition to a solid stack already make some investments in say stillwater mining and pal mining and some of the gold ones. Some pay good dividend too. Reward is enticing just have to do due diligence on risks like geopolitical and then find a decent entry point.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:49 | Link to Comment LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Ttere sure are a lot of donkeys that went missing around the time of the horse meat fiasco. Hmmmmmm.

Gives new meaning to a burrito!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 05:06 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I thought those fried oysters tasted a little off.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:30 | Link to Comment Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Yeah ... it always seems too early ... that's the challenge.

 

But, as Sun Tzu quoth: When the thunderclap comes, it is too late to cover the ears.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:10 | Link to Comment MoneyThangs
MoneyThangs's picture

There is nothing to worry about people, we will soon be dead and this will all be over

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I think that is the plan.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:14 | Link to Comment Being Free
Being Free's picture

Yippy ky yay, motherfucker!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Speaking of KY...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:34 | Link to Comment dtwn
dtwn's picture

As Eminem would say:

"I have the money to have you killed by somebody who has nothing,

I'm past bluffing,

Pass the K-Y,

Let's get ready for some intense,

serious ass fucking!"

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:14 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

HFTs have just ripped into shorts on futures, Fed speak did the rest.  Correction stopped it's tracks.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:16 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

Brent just retreated from trend highs @ $118 per barrel, the 'new $147 per barrel'.

 

Any time crude prices march to near the trend high, whatever that price is, the economy begins to vomit.

 

Somewhere in the world ... a currency pair or a bond ... is writhing in agony.

 

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:15 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

funny how that works

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:36 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

...or funny how that "plan" works :)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:38 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

true true

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:27 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

And I might add, not a MOMENT too soon either.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:30 | Link to Comment babylon15
babylon15's picture

99% of people with open long positions in the S&P 500 have not seen that chart.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

DOW hasn't hit 36000 yet, we've got a bit more climbing to go before a rug gets pulled.  I've heard this song and dance so often in the last five years that it's predictable to the day of "the great turn of events" which some horseshit pops up and the market switches course up.  Then bear massacre

 

You know why?  There is only one buyer in the market.  Single buyer with the printer to continue printing and a legion of machines to buy it all in fractions of a second.  

 

Every quarter, same story, pictures of the remaining ten stock floor traders holding their heads.  Bear sucker punch incoming.  

Do not go short on any of this, you will get your faces ripped off.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:48 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Dow 36000

-- Release date: October 1, 1999

Only deluded twats believe & sell-side anal cysts proclaim that any "secular bull market" has begun.

Poor (soon to be poorer), dumb f*cks who actually believe that the government, the Federal Reserve, or their "financial ass-viser" actually has a single, concrete concern about whether their "investments" in the Great Bucket Shop that is Wall Street get sucked up by that greatest, most rigged casino ever granted a license to steal, plunder, pillage and anally rape thusly have absolutely no clue what lay in store for them.

As a PSA, the Insider Kings of Fraud Street don't make bank unless it's lifted from the overwhelming majority of "investors" at regular intervals who get lulled into playing the "equity markets." It never ceases to amaze me that anyone can believe there's a Greenspan or Bernanke "put" when any such thing would kill the Oligarchs of Wall Street that own the government (how can the piles of chips be scooped up and away by the casino if the majority, let alone close to anything approaching "most," are winners?).

Whether by a fundamental or chart-driven analysis, it's irrefutable that equity markets began a Great Secular Bear Market sometime in the 90s, and this Nikkei-esque Bear has a lot of room to run and victims to decapitate.

Wait....screw the fundamentals and charts--- and just think head, shoulders, knees & toes, and BOHICA if you're dumb enough to swim with the sharks.

Credit-fueled crack up booms produce the most epic hangovers in history. When the credit used is literally interchangeable with debt in a fiat fractional reserve monetary system, it's soooo much worse.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:54 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Not so Bullish, are ya TIS?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 03:38 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Meh....Making misery. National past-time since the mid 90's

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3JoRHMOxmI

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 05:11 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

TruthInSunshine said: 

"Credit-fueled crack up booms produce the most epic hangovers in history. When the credit used is literally interchangeable with debt in a fiat fractional reserve monetary system, it's soooo much worse."

Agreed.

Bernanke may as well be planting black tulips on the south lawn of the Marriner Eccles building.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:14 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

FYI.

Greece

Spain (Guess which direction that's going)

Italy

France (Going back to 2000)

 

So it's just the UK, Germany and the US which are still "inflated"... Funnily enough... The western world's  banking centers. Whocoodanodeit.

Germany & the UK next.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

@css1971

Concern for the NIKKEI? Apparently you don't know Abe like I know Abe - besides, didn't the G20 just give its blessing? The S&P is a completely different story with the FOMC being so 'hawkish' (lol) - there is no will left to print more than what is already being printed. Not to mention that sequester has the exact opposite goals of QE. The only thing that will be different this time is that when the SHTF there will be no 'ammunition' left to do anything about it. Politically, we'll be talking much less sequestration and much more government shutdown at that point (hey, a guy can dream right?).

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 02:11 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

Most overnight Asian markets are in the red as this is being written now.:

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_...

 

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Release the Kraken!!!!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:28 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

minor edit

Release the Kraken, Bitchez's!!!!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:39 | Link to Comment sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Thanks!! I stand corrected! I like it!!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:07 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Release the Bernanken!

 

(My God!  Look at all those clouds of ink!)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:37 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

My god... it's full of skittles..

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:43 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Open the print tray doors, BEN.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

When the market stalls the algos need to suck in shorts for fuel. Selling longs was smart, but going short the day before the algos program what Bernanke is going to say?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

The Fed's stockbots are getting dialed back for a few days to drive money back into bonds. The long bond yields were getting a bit jiggy; time to warn the bond traders that yields can be smacked down in a heartbeat. That's also the reason gold was knocked down to $1550 for a moment or two; it has nothing to do with small fry buyers of physical. It's to warn the commercial traders against getting long gold in size: "We can hand you your head any time we like. We are FRBNY."

And they can--for a while. Then they can't anymore. Same with the bond traders. Eventually they'll stop listening to the Fed's rubbish. Remember "I can raise rates in 15 minutes"? He can't. He promised to keep yields at the ZLB until mid-2015 at least. So all this talk about "possible major reform of our QE program at the March meeting" is just bilge and jawboning. QE is the process by which the Fed holds yields down. At the first hint that the Fed is going to throw them under the bus, bond traders will dump Treasurys en masse. Game over.

Ben's painted himself into a nice little corner.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:06 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The entire system is committed to a march forward to the nominal end. The Fed will print, the USG will be funded, any major player will be saved (Pension plans, municipalities) all nominally. The players will all perform their roles like the band on the Titanic. They are all good soldiers and will do what is expected. They will support the system to the best of their abilities whether or not they know what lies ahead.

I suspect Ben knows. He is widely hated here but if it was your job to save the currency, the government and yea the very nation....how would you do it? I do not think he is dumb nor do I view him as evil...he has a job to do. The ship is sinking....like the Captain of the Titanic he understands the concept of 'mathematical certainty'...but what can he do?

The problems of the US dollar and the US government CANNOT be fixed. Also you cannot just say 'hey we have a problem with the dollar so lets just devalue this by xx% and raise the price of gold to $xx,xxx as it would hurt someone and benfit others and politics will not permit a rational salvation.

No. This hand must be played. Those who understand, or think they do, will prepare. If one is lucky with timing and they see the future clearly (by seeing the past clearly) they will be wealthy when the inevitable occurs. 

So I do not hate Ben. I think I know what he will do. He will do what he sees as his duty. He will fight it but in the end he will allow the currency to hyperinflate. He will slow it down, he will punish those who try to interfere with his efforts and he will reward those who help him. He will, in the end fail to save the dollar.

So I know what I am going to do. I'll loose money (the opportunity to make 'money') doing it but in the end I hope I'll be OK.

This is the greatest show on Earth. It is the highest drama of my lifetime. 30 months ago I did not pay attention to the monetary system. Now I can't quit watching it. The events that are coming may never happen again. If you cannot profit from this at least enjoy the show. It will be bloody and horrible but in years to come it will be something to tell the grandkids about....that's kinda sick I know but hey...I did not cause this mess and I cannot change it's outcome so at least  I'll enjoy watching events play out....who knows there may even be a few surprises. 

I do not think survival of the dollar for a decade more will be one of them.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:57 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

I'd stop worrying about getting/staying "wealthy". Worry about...staying alive...when der Sturm hits. Lead will rule. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"Also you cannot just say 'hey we have a problem with the dollar so lets just devalue this by xx% and raise the price of gold to $xx,xxx as it would hurt someone and benfit others and politics will not permit a rational salvation."

You betray a deep misunderstanding of politics here. Politics is simply "war by other means". The point of politics is to redistribute wealth and power, that is, to "hurt some to benefit others". They hope to manage it without falling into war, because war diminishes the pot in the center of the poker table---unless you're a defense contractor.

Ben does know what he's doing; not the neo-Keynesian part, that's just a bogus philosophical framework to hang the entire scheme on. And he IS evil; watch him knowingly, deliberately impoverish an entire nation and destroy its middle class to further enrich the giant money trusts that established the Fed, order its operations and own all of its corporate stock.

His job is to manage the steady ratcheting of the U.S. paper dollar down in respect to gold and all other commodities, without losing control of the process so that the currency collapses. It is an impossible job, as the Fed allowed aggregate debt to grow too large in the shadow banking system in particular. Now Ben has two options to choose between: Either slow the growth of the money supply, precipitating economic collapse and even worse unemployment, or else attempt to jumpstart the economy by speeding up the growth of money and its velocity. The latter course will almost certainly drive a collapse of the currency itself.

It all comes back to von Mises: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Well said.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

i have to come here for these oneliners; nowhere else

VIX, schmix; Credit, schmedit; Gas prices, schmices; Macro, schmacro...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:30 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Patterns Shmaterns

Charts Shmarts

Dow schmow

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

this is a triple top going back to 1998. it either breaks through or collapses.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:46 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

They own the printer and computers, this is a sucker punch to wipe out the remaining short positions that are dogmatically moving into short positions in a market no longer controlled by rational behavior.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Breaker, breaker, it's a convoy! 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwaygKjs2fI

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 06:56 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "it either breaks through or collapses"

~~~

Do you charge 2 & 20 for your valuable prognostication?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:20 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

funny cause it's not controlled by irrational behavior either

just criminal

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 05:25 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

CPL said:  "...in a market no longer controlled by rational behavior."

Don't be too hard on Wall Street, it's there, they just rearranged the letters:

analriot hivearob

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:46 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

Breaks through, based on what? Actual growth? More printing? Hope and unicorns? Seriously.. We know the story here, and we know how it ends.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:56 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Some bullshit story in about a week that states it's all fixed because of 'anything'.  By 'anything', I mean 'anything'.  Thimbles.  Hockey puck sales.  Hats.  Could be 'anything'.

Then an emergency session where a small group of people agree that more debt should be created post haste and followed by some nonsense law about "mark whatever you want to market".  Passed by a slim vote of paid stooge versus paid stooge.

Every quarter it's always 'something' that 'anything' can fix.  Don't get suckered into this.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:18 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

I respect where you're coming from, and I see your point clearly. It's been my experience though that nothing lasts forever, and exponential functions are mans mortal enemy - the amount of QE that the Fed would have to print to drive the DOW much higher becomes more and more expensive though, and eventually it becomes completely self defeating. Maybe we're there, and maybe we're not. Anyway, you completely contradict me, and I respect that because these waters are deep and untested.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:49 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

This isn't a point of philosophy.  I'm saying, short that and you'll get your face ripped off.  There is nothing to do but hold long.

And yes, it will not last forever.  But if five years ago if I told you that the US national debt would double and the only solution allowed is to print moar money.  Because that's the only plan so far and it'll be the only one for the next five years.

Print at the push of a button.  Believe me, those people pushing the button don't give a damn.

 

Dow 36000, not because of growth or value, it'll be for the single reason of just because.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:59 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

I don't want to sound preachy (or maybe I do), but if it can be debated then it is philosophical. Money is medium, quantity, velocity, and a whole shit load of faith. It seems to me that you are discounting the important of faith all-together. The persistent metals smash down for instance - it has nothing to do with gold or silver. The central banks acquire gold because the people demand it, not because the metal means anything to a banker. The people may be sheep, but do not discount the importance of their faith in Ben's banana bucks ;)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Do you own US dollars right now?  Actually any paper currency?

Why haven't you handed it all over to the bank demanding silver for the transaction?  Or maybe you have?  

That type of change/collapse you are talking about takes a while.  A long while.  We aren't even close to where it lands yet.  Don't let your technicals challenge this market in any bear concern.  I've watched every bear that considers themselves a realist walk in to ZH and two quarters later everyone has the message.

But if you are in the mood for losing money, by all means.  If you are fast, great.  Just don't 'hold' longer than a day if you are planning on it and keep the stops in.  And if you are planning on buying X3 ETF's, don't, you aren't a fast enough trader.  Nobody is.  Stay away from them.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:15 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

I was under the impression that 3X ETF had all gone away. Maybe not, I have a short memory..

The bottom line is, how much is the Fed going to print? The last FOMC meeting was not dovish enough to commit to another dime, and they even went to far as to mention scaling back current QE (some laughingly called it 'hawkish'). If I'm wrong to draw conclusions, then I'm happy to be wrong since greed does not run my life. Thank you for the interesting conversation.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:24 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

your guys exchange beautifully sums up this ugly moment in history 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:48 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

You seem like a very serious person to me CPL, so I think this may interest you. Here is the ZH article celebrating the death of 3X EFT: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fascination-triple-levered-etfs-ends-direx...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

I know.  But if you want to trade an x3etf, TZA/FAZ/FAS/TNA are all still online and people still jump in feet first.

RSI shows 'zero' indication that the market is going to take a shit.  None what so ever.  There's no volume.  With no volume, a butterfly could fart and push this market. 

When it comes to money and resource allocation I'm always serious, which is to my benefit when I'm running my business and to those that work with me.  When I see people talking about jumping in front of that bear train, I get concerned.

I've seen enough people hurt financially by these markets for eight lifetimes that I don't even trade them anymore after two decades. 

When has an Irishman met a bet that he won't take?  This is that occassion, this Mick won't bite.  I would put money on a three legged, blind nag in a loaded race before putting another nickle in the market.  If I 'win' the profits gained aren't worth anything.  If I bet against, that's just as bad, on the bottom of the market are governments waiting to levy taxes.

There is no win in this situation.  None at all.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:31 | Link to Comment Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

Don't forget the ban on short sales.  Ben is not out of ammunition yet.  I expect that ban to take affect around SPX 1000 or so.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Diamond_Dave
Diamond_Dave's picture

That's what I was thinking. Have you guys found that gap that needs to close. Don't look to hard or you'll short your Grandma.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:48 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Self-Destruct in fifteen seconds, will I dream Dave?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

Not selling until week closes red.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

They've kept this run going an extra six months.  Central banking is getting better!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

 

 

The end is near.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:03 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Until it isn't.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

It's already here

This is hilarity watching all the lateral moves....

one fine day

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:26 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

you got my vote for quote of the week

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment Room 101
Room 101's picture

Oro e argento, puttane! 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:00 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

As soon as the Dow closed at 1.55% neg, the DXY was selling off like mad  Fed a-hole Lockhart jawboned, HFTs came in and supported futures.  NY Fed did the rest and sold USDs and bought EUR (swaps).  Asia should be down over 2%, it's not,  Yen selling came in helped Nikkei off lows.  There should be a massive short squeeze on open.

One day the market will obliterate those central banks and their arrogance.

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

You are correct.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:09 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

me thinks that a parallel to 2006-2009 would be a best case scenario for whats coming................................do they have charts for occurences that have never transpired in world history????.............where the vast majority of intensly interwoven asset mechanisms break down in a fashion never before witnessed, leaving the entire global fabric shredded?????...................plunging the world into a dark abyss??????????....from which the globalists and statists cannot crawl out from????...............

 

oh, what a world, what a world!!!!!!........................

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:29 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Word up brother.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:13 | Link to Comment RideTheWalrus
RideTheWalrus's picture

The Bernak is now using drones to drop cash from the sky so it's gonna be OK everyone!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

They let 1500 SPY go they are up asscreek without a paddle.  They made a hell of an effort to talk this thing up, you think they are going to let it fail here?  Not I.

Long UPRO at the close at 150.17 SPY; already up a point.  Yes it may reverse on me and I splatter the screen with projectile vomit tomorrow morning; but you pays yer money and takes yer chances.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:20 | Link to Comment slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Damn I wouldn't mind plotting my chart betweens those lines.

The chart itself is pretty useless.Drawing plot lines to the 2009 lows will be the bane of chartists for some time to come.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:17 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

I tend to agree.  It's certainly not my blog, but I'd personally be uncomfortable suggesting the next crash to SPX 666 is right upon by overlaying graphs that by coincidence look similar.

Believe it or not, people are just gullible enough to short the crap of it without trying to draw other parallels or incongruities in time.

That's probably not a popular take, but there it is...

 

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:29 | Link to Comment Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

LOL pods.

$4.31 for 87 octane here in Concord CA.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:02 | Link to Comment LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

You will look back at that statement and wish for those prices again.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Stop the nonsense. Everything is nonsense, VIX or other crap. You guys still do not understand totalitarianism

 

Totalitarianism doesn't care about profit or law. Totalitarinism is never ever wrong until they are.

When the gov buys up everything metrics does not matter. Did VIX matter during soviet union times?

 

This one is no different. Soviet Union collapsed due to lack of food.

The current gulag (market) will collapse due to lack of energy, lack of crude oil.

 

Only an order by the president (currently the position is occupied by the dear leader), so only the president can crap this market and only one thing will force his hand, CRUDE OIL SCARCITY FROM THE REAL ECONOMY, same as with George Bush in 2008.

 

I strongly think Obama has already signed the order.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:26 | Link to Comment intj87
intj87's picture

Ekm after along time searching for a "means" or a conlcusion to this mess I think yours might be the best conclusion. You hear the fed talking about "lessening QE", and Oil prices at record highs for Feb, no retail investors in the economy. So you think they are just gonna load up one of the dealers and bring the ship down? (DB?). Then what? Hyperinflate it all/war/whatever?
Maybe they'll use this sequester BS as a means to crash the ship.
Although with the amount of times they've avoided disaster, I wont put it by them that they do avoid disaster again.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:34 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Do you remember the show: WEAKEST LINK? Players would conspire to vote out who's the weakest?

 

That's what happened in the past, that's what happened in 2007-2008 when Bear Stearns and Lehman were voted out, that's what happened in 2011 when MFG was voted out.

 

Now, you'd say that MFG did not cause a problem. I'd say, really?

How about the news today that CME was looking for a buyer to sell itself to?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-approaches-deutsche-boerse-over-tie...

 

NYSE went bankrupt, now it's CME's turn.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:15 | Link to Comment intj87
intj87's picture

So the end game is to crash the market (oil) to lure the retail back in, essentailly restarting the cycle..except this time we have 16T debt...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Correct

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

nice post bad stuff

Agree there's all sorts of emergency orders signed

This patriot act crap is just to get us warmed up

I assume they will snap just before the petro dollar does

and capitalism will be finally, officially done

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:36 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

"and capitalism will be finally, officially done"

 

Possible....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:43 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

here at least but given the global resource game, maybe everywhere

everywhere except 80% of everything

which may be undergound   

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

EKM you are right about the oil price, thing is with this *shock horror* sell off with equities, oil barely moved, DXY did, because you had ECB and NY FEd selling ($) and buying to keep the EUR bid.  Futures (stocks) were green the get go, Italy could go back to elections in a week of so...yields blow out, central banks have swung back into action.  Can they hold the line?

So yeah oil is the scarcity/safe haven/war trade (not middle east but Japan/China cold war has started). 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:39 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

It is the only explanation left and the only one that makes sense, historically.

An economy needs two basic things:

- Food 

- Energy

 

Metrics and laws are good indicators when they are ......allowed to work. If not allowed to work, they are useless.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:05 | Link to Comment LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Oil has been moving with the move.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Truther
Truther's picture

Fuck you Bernanke

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:47 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look this is a robust recovery. The green shoots have become green beanstalks! 

Climb the beanstalk! There's nothing to worry about!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:58 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

green shoots phhh. its positive contagion.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

agh....just a few more......minutes.....and I'll be finshed.....agh

 

almost...got it... just a little more..

 

were's that torque wrench?

 

agh....that's it......I'm finshed with my AK47B Super Star Fighter Self Contained Studio Apt. With Cal. King or AK47B SSFSCSAWCK

 

Let's Go Girls...

 

See Ya!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

Bernanke:  "Haha!  Chart analogs never work!!"

[he says as his eyes nervously dart to the area on his bookshelf dedicated to texts about chart analogs]

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:16 | Link to Comment dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

I'd like to express two opinions tonight (and I'm drunk) (it was bowling night, back off).  First, obviously, today was a topping stick in equities.  But it was TEXTBOOk in the Dow futures.  So, from here, I expect all rallies to be sold into, but there's too many d-bag big shots out there looking to buy a good dip, so I don't expect this to be the BIG top.  Maybe down to the 13,400 area on the Dow futues (1440-ish) area on S&P.  I'm totally open to it going lower than that, but I'd be suspect.  The BIG tops don't usually happen until mid to late spring when the big money is preparing to go on vacation for the summer.  What would be ideal is selling all week and then the sequester postponed.  That would find willing buyers to bring us back up.  If sequester actually happens it should prompt a bigger dip but I expect another opportunity near the top to either short or sell if you're long, meaning shorts should peel off profits as we go.  

On a side note, the "gift from God" scenario in silver would be a drift sideways for a few more days with a slightly upward bias, then a spike lower that makes a new low and runs the stops.  If that happens and it gets immediately bought up it should prompt a grind higher to the upper trendline of the channel that is eventually taking us to $26.  That is one of the most reliable patterns in trading (the inverse of what happened today in equities).  We'll see how this plays out. 

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!