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Is This The Chart That Everyone Is Concerned About?
We have seen this all before...
...it's never different this time. Of course, you should buy the dip; you invest for the long-term, right? VIX, schmix; Credit, schmedit; Gas prices, schmices; Macro, schmacro...
The last few times that VIX has seen such a 4-day low-to-high risk-flare were extremely significant events...
Credit markets have been flashing red for a month...
and we've seen that before too...
And we've seen what the catalyst for an equity rerating is before...
Macro seems to be sending clear signals too... that we've seen before...
But apart from that...BTFD (or in Abe's case STFR)
Charts: Bloomberg, Capital Context, and Goldman Sachs
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"It was bowling night, back off"
Backed off.
DOW weekly charts at blog show updated bearish rising wedge.
Despite market intervention, short covering and new longs, uptrend degradation has continued for some time.
http://trader618.com
Don't worry! The yield on the Japanese 10 year bond dropped today to rates last seen in 2003 (before they added god knows how many trillion Yen of additional debt). So if all else turns to shit you can get (for a limited time) a "guaranteed" 0.68% interest on a ten year bond from Tokyo (and i guess that's in Yen which they've plegged to destroy). Anyway, any central banker or government schmuck will validate it's one hell of deal. Get'em while their hot!
Just another dip. Then more reflation. The cycle is currently on second rinse. Still more wash to do. Still more time to plan for the real dip/dive in bond prices. But seeing the charts does make me start planning with more urgency.
'That's why I'm movin' ta Montana!'
'Movin' ta Montana soon
gonna be a dental floss tycoon. Yes I am!
By my self, I would have no boss
cause I'd be raisin' my lonely dental--floss. . .
and then I'd ride across the border
with my tweezers gleamin' in the moon-lighty night.'
YIPPY-TY-O-TY-AY!!!
That's what Frank would do!
Preach it. All the fedspeak of becoming more hawkish is just hotair. Heard that song and dance before. Inflating will continue. Sequester is a joke. Europe probably has more stick saves up its sleeve. It will take something large to pop this bitch.
I've become desensitized to all this bullshit. So upset at the state of things.
"Europe probably has more stick saves up its sleeve"
Yes they do. Actually, it's more like they paid off the refs! Total game fixing. This world rewards stupidity. Punishes the wise, by making us go insane by not letting things be and chips fall where they may/should.
There is only one thing to blow this shit pile they dumped on us to smitherines, and that is the bond market. It is bigger then the stock market and the fed. The central banksters think that their coordinated, united front can stop the last bastion and hope of the free market, and yes that is the bond market. I feel that they are winning and Heyak is rolling in his grave, but when I hear Faber and Jim Rodgers emphaticaly and confidently say, "absolutely not! They can not hold back the bond market forever", I get reassured that this madness will come to an end.
We know they cant hold back the last bastion of free market hope. But these assholes are evil motherf@ckers and they can make us honest citizens seem powerless and confused. But make no mistake about. There is something big, real BIG. That will pop this bitch. Even the combined evil forces of the banksters will not hold it back. Unfortunately, when it does blow, they will make their clean get-a-way and escape the carnage.
And that is why I am planning my getaway. That why I'm movin' ta Montana! :)
Europe has a different bond market situation with a different bond holder situation, including the various banking systems, coupled with a different view on what the nations might or might not do with banking systems
though I have to admit that while I bristle at this simplification of "it's more like they paid off the refs" I have to admit that it contains a kernel of truth
my own simplificated answer to that is more like: we are patiently waiting to see where the next shoe drops... since 1971
a thought: if this "last bastion of hope" is more and more in the hands of the FED, can you still call it so?
Europe has a different everything. In America, the banksters have tried this before and it failed. It failed in the late 70's and in the early 90's. The power the elites wield seems unstoppable at times, but history IS our guide. And history has shown that the bond market prevails and defeats the Keynesian socialist elitists.
While many are focused on the fed bond purchases, they are missing the point that these are just NEW purchases. They are sopping up the new issues. What about the old? I will tell you what about the old purchases. Ever since the fed made the announcement for eternal bond buys, the old bond buyers have been sellin' They will continue to forfit new issues and sell the old, just as they did in decades past, AND that is what led to the rise in interest rates and crushed the Keynsian socialist bankster utopia.
BTFD
Got Gold, Silver, cash, land, guns and ammo yet?
Get busy people, and for God's sake get any money you have out of equities.
Doesn't matter if the DOW goes to 20,000, it will be taxed and "sequestered" into illiquid status if you leave it there.
I saw a cloud in the sky that looked like a cow in 2006. Does that mean I will see one again in 2013? substitute chart for cow and there is just as much logic.
Cycles in the stock market are really just astrology. If you dont believe me, investigate the relationship between Fibonacci retracements and planetary cycles
http://www.magiastrology.com/__fibonaccichart1/index_full.php
That makes as much sense as charting.
moooooooooooo
pull my utter...
Are you telling me the $250 I paid for my new black box charting system was a waste of money? Damn
Yes, that's what I am saying.
I don't give a crap about the S and P. Lot's more important things are going on now than some measure of indication of what the fuck is going on than S&P.
I'm sharing corporate investments.
S and P is a film flam, the real thing is what companies are spending money on right now.
From my perspective there are good investments happening, portfolios of projects within companies based on solid thinking from the best minds around changing the physical world in a fine way and reflecting on dividends great dividends.
Pay all your attention to that man behind the curtain . be the bitch slave to some religion or belief system you need so bad because of your insecurities of your securities.
I can only speak to what I know and do every day, how investments are made on a large scale on projects large companies are investing in now.
Where the rubber meets the road, GSD. Get Shit Done, I make the call that we in the US on the corporate side are very focused and making good decisions now.
There is a new sheriff in town.
Well heeled and financed. Our project portfolios are smart.
The End Of The World As We Know It is not here.
It’s only the beginning.
Those French Aristocrats were well-heeled and financed, until they lost their heads.
True enough ebworthen.
As they dallied with the dance of dreams, many in the French elite got a massive hair cut.
I just call it like I see it from inside the implementation machine of corporate IT and business change investments. Respecting the knowledge of some who have outside my realm with expertise of investment portfolios and large scale understandings of global finance systems,
For many years I saw such horrible investments and waste.
I am knowledgeable in IT and Business portfolios.
The ROI and TCO and success or failure of realizing the investment returns of such portfolios, how the governance of such is working by way of measurable implementation success or failure as the outcome calls.
With 8 down arrows I stand behind what I say and will invite any who down arrowed me to explain or offer good argument as to why I am wrong.
All the best Zero Hedge!
Michael
Do you mean 'beginnig' ------ of the End --- of the World?
Not only that but if you go to the USGS website you can see that the tectonic plates have been relieving pressure all across the world onto the New Madrid fault. It is overdue, emitting booming sounds and developing sink holes.
I'd like to see FEMA deal with that one. Better yet, I'd like to see FEMA deal with millions of heavily armed rednecks from Missouri to Maine.
I never thought about it before but but ammo might be like small denomination money after the fiat is only good for starting camp fires.
That's a given. It's portable, breaks into discrete units, and has intrinsic value.
Fear index jumps 35% on U.S. stock selloff:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fear-index-jumps-35-on-us-stock-selloff...
And remember this one?
Some Trader Has Made A Very Big Bet That Something Very Bad Will Happen Within The Next 60 Days:
http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-big-vix-bet-2013-2
This report is not even three weeks old, and this is already headed towards on targetville.
How did they know that the VIX would rise?? And, if it was known then, how would they go about profiting from this insider information?
Any thoughts to share around this?
Australia Government's latest move of desperation:
http://www.afr.com/p/national/budget_grab_for_inactive_bank_accounts_L7F...
'Thousands of bank account holders are being advised to make transactions of as little as $1 to avoid having their accounts transferred to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to help plug the federal government’s budget deficit.'
Is it different this time? What is different is that central bankers now have free reign to print unlimited money. There is almost no political resistance. The FED "saved" the world last time around with a few trillion dollars. They will be called upon to print 2X, 3X, 4X this time around. Nominal prices will rise, IMO.
Tyler,
What are you getting at?
I don't see how these charts affect my mountainous stacks of beef stew and ammunition... except maybe in a positive way.
According to Goldman Sachs:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/127324666/hamta
The turn in the gold cycle is likely already underway
Improving US economic data and receding downside risks push gold prices lower
Gold prices sold-off sharply over the past two weeks, extending the decline that started last October that has now brought COMEX gold prices from $1,800/toz to $1,575/toz. Most of this price decline has coincided with a gradual increase in US real rates, reflecting the combination of better-than-expected US economic data, a more hawkish interpretation of recent Fed communication and a lower level of US fiscal and European sovereign risks. Net, these moves in gold and real rates have anticipated the turn in the gold cycle that we had expected for the second half of 2013, tracking instead along the “faster recovery” scenario that we laid out in our 2013 gold outlook: Gold cycle set to turn on improving US recovery.
Interesting,.... I think I will now add more gold to my portfolio. Gold is not a short term investment, and I can't understand the cycle has turned.
Angst... uh... schmangst!
And ehm... Twinkies schminkies!
This will be a fun day, GBY Tyler.
Interest... schminterest!
Bunga schmunga!
Yes, this time i different. There are no longer ANY market forces in the market. Price is now completely controlled by computer. So, I do not agree with this latest version of "curve-fitting".
However, I would also agree that any time the collusive, crony banking powers want to crash the system, they have the power to crash the system. I just think they will hold off for the next big one until September 2015 to render their god's "judgment".
Tick-tock on the Syntagma Square riot clock. . . . . .
Now, that made me laugh!
more and more empty retail while apartment projects are going up fast. central planning's big problem what is good in DC don't always work in fly over main street. DC keeps telling itself jobs are comming back via BLS fake data, then the DC officers act on that data..maybe bigger computer programs with extra fudge functions have truly solved the problem of Rome knows what Africa needs. as for the FED they are bankers who make it either way, Ben is evil but thinks he is doing everyone good..so I put my money on black 13 and spin the white ball ben.
Retail's gonna be screwed: tenants can demand lower rates & perks to stay or will down-size & leave. If even having to find extra tenants is hard then emptier is harder & they know it. Suddenly those invested in the buildings could be looking at several years of zero returns at best or vacant buildings & total loss.
Only a fool stays in real-estate now... or a government-induced worker population in certain very specific places, in the USA.
Poor Murrika.
As far as I'm concerned there's already been a bear market in the rare earth, gold and uranium miners. A bear market that's in its last innings. (Don't hold me to the time/duration those last innings will take.)
Cliff diving time.