Citi: "This Is The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing"

Tyler Durden's picture

When a note by a Citi FX strategist begins with the following proclamation endorsing outright fascist despotism, you know it's going to be good: "This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing." Perhaps if Citi would be so kind to overrule the democratic vote, in which 55% or the majority of the people voted against the "right thing",  and impose its own unelected Italian dictator, just like Goldman did in November 2011, that long EURUSD call would be happier? Then it only gets better: "Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry" (sic). True: some things outright money debasement by central banks can't buy - for everything else there are Siberian Gulags. And the absolute punchline: "Still the outcome does not seem so dire that a bit of growth and ECB flexibility could not turn it around." Why yes, all Europe needs is a "little growth" obviously in lieu of lots of growth, but frankly it will settle for any growth - something it has been unable to do under the wise tutelage of the banker-dominated oligarchy for the past four years, as for that little "ECB flexibility" - wink wink: just where would you like those Euro Stoxx Steve?

From Citi's Steven Englander:

1) The bad news first. This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing. Instead they gave surprising support to politicians who reject austerity and, in some cases, the euro. This could become a major problem if it proves contagious. The feel-good from the runup in Italian asset markets was not enough to offset the feel-bad from austerity, low growth and unemployment. If all it would take to fix this was an ECB rate cut, they would do so immediately, but euro zone politicians may need to ease fiscal constraints  and find ways to quickly stimulate growth. Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry. Still the outcome does not seem so dire that a bit of growth and ECB flexibility could not turn it around.

 

Outcome for the euro - negative in short term and maybe further to go, but considering that euro spent months happily over 1.40 with Berlusconi as PM, this is a set back but not a catastrophe. 

 

2) JPY - collateral damage and position cutting. Its not as if any new JPY information came out in the middle of the Tokyo night when markets went pear-shaped . Yesterday's high to low range in EURJPY touched seven big figures. So there were either weak JPY shorts or EUR longs. The BoJ's mistake in 2009-2012 was letting bad news elsewhere lead to yen appreciation, a double hit. If the new policymaking regime is different, it will be because it will resist JPY appreciation on bad news.

 

Outcome for JPY - temporary JPY plus,  but hard to see the incentive for the Japanese government to do anything but talk yen down and Nikkei up again – USDJPY buying opportunity.

 

3) Monday’s shock helps Fed Chairman Bernanke Tuesday as these developments argue that the world is not a safe place and that a QE buffer against negative economic or financial shocks needs to be maintained. Bernanke will argue for Fed exIt (Fexit?) as soon as possible but not necessarily anytime soon.  Very short term I think this will give markets a boost, but data in following weeks are a risk.

 

Outcome for USD – Fed Chairman will likely try and talk risk appetite back into market, unwinding USD gains. The problem is that once we get past his testimony we may face some weak economic data and renewed concern that fiscal tightening is having a more negative effect than is priced into markets.

 

4) Positions were big drivers and concentrated positions were hit, while positionless but risk-correlated AUD and NZD were almost flat versus Friday. JPY stronger on JPY negative news.  This looks like a positioning and panic induced shift rather than a real risk sell-off. The Italian election is a definite EUR negative but other than with respect to the EUR, the major impact was in markets that were heavily positioned, not where there was bad news. Hence I think that dust will settle slowly in Europe but more quickly elsewhere – GBP, JPY weakness will resume.

* * *

Let's see what else could we add here:

5) If one ignores the 55% of the population that voted against the banker puppets in this election, then Monti and Bersani obviously get 100% of the vote. So you must buy EURUSD

6) Thank you docile little Greeks for doing "the right thing" in 2012

7) Remember "those" European "elections" in the 1920s? They actually were not that bad after all...

* * *

That smell? That's the stench of panicky desperation

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candyman's picture

Voters in the US also did'nt do the right thing.

The Thunder Child's picture

Did anybody acutally vote? I didn't vote....did you vote?

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My statement is at the blog link above.

 

EDIT:

I did vote, but it did not matter.

The Thunder Child's picture

The whole thing is rigged, TPTB pick the winner months ahead of time. So by voting I am not really voting at all am I, in reality I am renewing my social contract to be ruled and to accept responsibility for a portion of the sovereign debt...no thanks.

 

Elections Bichez!

sunaJ's picture

It's a protest vote, you Citi cocksuckers.  Protesting your paradigm is the one thing that the majority can agree upon.  Where is the inflation that was supposed to hit us?  It's in the stock market.  It is expressed in paper for companies that purport a value "equal" to FRNs (minus a couple steps from liquidity).  They are passing money amongst themselves while the real economy languishes.  It is the modern-day example of "let them eat cake."  Well, with that inflation in the stock market comes the absolute necessity to not only stagnate, but to continue inflating with continued acceleration, until that one moment...that moment when truth has long since become irony, irony to cliche, and cliche to farce.  Then you get things like comedians or playboys elected as public officials because they are the ones that can tell the truth first.  After the farce comes the "no clothes" moment.  It is game over for the financial technocrats, and they are going to have to reach for straws that they thought would only be necessary many years down the road.  But continue to deny, they will. 

AssFire's picture

Fuck the fucking fuckers!!!

1C3-N1N3's picture

+1 to LongSoupLine for logging in as AssFire!

TruthInSunshine's picture

Lest there be an iota or scintilla of doubt that the "markets" are one giant ponzi built upon a foundation of salt & sand, let us ponder the sole sentence of this "analysis" that leaps out from the text and into our eyes, ears & mind, unpleasantly & forcefully:

"Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry"(sic).

 

It's fucking unreal. This is like 1999 or 2007 but only approximately 1000x more surreal. If I didn't know any better, I'd have thought that this was an April Fool's Day joke by a bankrupt and taxpayer bailed out Citi & its eminent FX analyst Steve "This Is Why Taxpayers Pay Me the Big Fiat" Englander, but I looked at the calendar, and it's February.

NoDebt's picture

Yeah, but we've learned something here, too, let's not forget.  We have again in front of us evidence that the TBTF banks (and other ponzi institutions) still FEAR CONTAGION.  An election in Italy would rarely rattle our markets like they did today UNLESS..... they saw a credible threat to their existance.  A debt/monetary threat- a "sudden heart attack" threat, not a slow-moving GDP/growth kind of threat.

Italy tells the EU to get stuffed, the Euro goes down.  The EU goes down, the European banks go down.  The European banks go down, so do US and other banks.

THEY ARE AFRAID.  And with good reason, I think.  As all ponzi schemes fear the same thing- a bunch of people running for the exits at the same time who can't all be paid off because the money doesn't exist to pay them all off.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm sick of hearing "if the banks go down" meme/bullshit.

Developed nations probably have 50% more banks than they need, most of which are directly propped up by a theft mechanism of taxing the productive in many ways (direct and indirect, subtle and not-so-subtle) and redistributing that wealth to these inefficient, vestigial, useless banks.

Fuck 'em. Let them fail as such useless, inefficent, dinosaurs should do. Let their carcasses dry up and litter the economic roadside, as a reminder to all to adapt or die.

Enough of the statist "KronyKapitalist" picking "winners" to backstop.

Harlequin001's picture

'

"This Is The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing"'

Oh dear, what a pity, never mind...

Banks should be what banks were always meant to be, hedge funds, not pillars of our society. Invest accordingly.

Of course, if that were the case there would be no welfare, state sponsored education or any other 'benefit' either directly or indirectly paid for by me...

any people would have a better idea of the true risk of investing in banks.

TruthInSunshine's picture

The time has long past arrived to define, with specificity, in ways that even the dullards can understand completely, what a bank is or isn't.

In that definition should be included an unshakeable, unbreakable restraint against any public/taxpayer monies being used directly or indirectly (aka "on the sly") supporting, bailing out or otherwise propping up any of these entities.

Navymugsy's picture

I thought they just do "re-votes" until the desired outcome is achieved. Didn't they do that in Ireland and Holland with the EU Referendum a few years back?

James_Cole's picture

 

Just do an American-style revote: assassinate the democratically elected leader and install someone CITI likes. 

 

Ghordius's picture

so if I ask you again and again for something and you eventually say yes then I'm a bad guy? never understood this line of reasoning

----

mhmm... seems I touched a nerve here - LOL

again, if I ask the same girl five times to have a date and she says four times no and the last time yes, does this make me some sexual monster?

Freddie's picture

Citi is such a corrupt, incompetent, evil "bank" but they all are.  They could not manage a hot dog stand without hundreds of billions in taxpayer money.

ersatzteil's picture

Italy may be a setback, but I trust the American people will "do the right thing" when Citi's $52 trillion+ in derivatives exposure implodes.

And former Citi con artist Jack Lew is now at the helm to help us make that tough call.

newengland's picture

True.

Looking forward to the bonfire of the vanities .

 

Ranger4564's picture

That sentiment is exactly what I felt, which is precisely why I did not vote.

kaiserhoff's picture

Vikram Pandit to his former troops:

You shall all now be very much following my own excellent example, flex your knees, bend over, and kiss you asses goodbye.

Vegamma's picture

I wish. Vikram is probably laughing on a private island counting the over half billion he made off of Citi which should have been wiped out. Should name his yacht Thanks Suckers!

ersatzteil's picture

No, I'm not even registered anymore. Apathy at 26...what was it like for you older gentlemen at my age?

gmrpeabody's picture

If you don't vote..., don't bitch.

There's always a write in, but doing nothing means you are lazy and ill-informed. Well..., you asked...

Race Car Driver's picture

I junked ya.

For bein' a moron.

john39's picture

voting in a fraudulent election where the system narrows your choices to only those it seems appropriate is perpetuating  fraudulent system.   frankly, sends a much stronger signal if people boycott the entrire process, and do so vocally.

nmewn's picture

So lemme see if I got this straight, its better to have Honey Boo Boo voyeurs and gum snapping i-shit kids placing people in responsibility to tax & spend & ban shit left and right...and then sit around and bitch about it?

Thats a great plan...I don't know why we didn't think of it sooner ;-)

FeralSerf's picture

Who the fuck made up that rule?  I'll bitch whenever I please, thank you.

Doing nothing means I see no reason to waste the planet's energy resources to go to TPTB's polls.  The ones voting for one of the PTB's candidates are the ill-informed ones.  I guess that means you too.

sskid's picture

No, it means you are giving your consent to this cluster fuck government, I am so tired of the cliches that pass for conventional wisdom, ever have an original thought of your own?

kridkrid's picture

Since I can only down vote you once, I'm going to add, "Fuck Off".

dwdollar's picture

Voting doesn't work when the majority is a bunch of idiots and/or the elections are rigged, but if it makes you feel empowered go right ahead. As if one more idiot voting matters at this point...

otto skorzeny's picture

when i don't have to pay 1 cent in taxes to the govt cocksuckers then i will stop bitching

nmewn's picture

I stood and fought for what I believe in and still do. You can't win if you don't fight.

You're a little old to be curled up, sucking your thumb in the fetal position don't you think? ;-)

Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

I don't vote, as it's a 2 party sham. Also, it means that I would get sucked onto jury duty, and I can't sit through all of that for $2 a day. That's not even a fucking Happy meal!

nmewn's picture

There is a lot to be said about the two party sham...there's not much difference as far as fiscal policy goes at this point.

But yeah, jury duty is a drag but needed. Last time I was picked it was the first time in the judges 30yr career he had to order a mistrial.

It was a sex crime case against a little girl. I was giving the guy the benefit of the doubt as there was no DNA which was said to be the case during jury selection. The prosecuters own witness let something slip in her testimony...there was more than one victim for this guy...but this fact was not part of THIS trial.

We (including me) would have fried him after hearing that, I would have done him myself...and still will if I see him so, mistrial.

It is what it is.

lasvegaspersona's picture

ersatz

at 26 I voted because I was supposed to vote. It wasn't until Clinton came along that I figured out which side he was on and I went to the other...I have been voting liberty since....it often does not matter because the white shoe guys in the party spring the Bob Dole, John Mccain/Mitt Romney guys on us before we even get to hear what the liberty candidate guy has to say. I have not decided how active I will be going forward.

The Club for Growth offers serious pro-economic, pro-liberty candidates. I give to them.

It has been eye opening to see that only one active Senator (Orin Hatch UT) and one retired Senator (Judd Gregg NH) have actively spoken about the real level of debt. Hatch made an estimate of about 60T at a meeting last Summer and Gregg discussed a possible dollar 'issue while still in office. NOT ONE OTHER politician has said 'hey, our currency could collapse to zero'. 

I believe that A) it is too horrible to contemplate  B) many do not understand the problem and C) those who do understand do not want to undermind confidence and at the same time end their careers. DEFG ect ...refer to B

That leaves me wondering just what I should do. I want to be a good citizen (in spite of all the bad shit the country is involved in and the loss of 'rule of law'. I could just take care of me and mine but I see a few good people hanging in there and fighting to good fight so I have not dropped out ....yet.

A Nanny Moose's picture

Pretty much the same however, my apathy has been replaced by enthusiasm for, and greater understanding of, anarchism, voluntarism, and the rule of law vs. the rule of men. I would be surprised if this came to pass in my lifetime.

To your journey. /raises glass.

Jabotinsky_USA's picture

Yes, I voted!  You should consider voting too.  If Perry and others in Republican primaries giving the Fed the ugly treatment is not enough then you should still show up to vote against tax levies.

 

Where I'm at there is a constant assault of property and income levies. One suburb has a levy attempt every 6 months!

Shizzmoney's picture

Voters in the US also didn't do the right thing.

By voting, period.

The illusion of choice began the moment Kennedy's brains landed in Jackie's lap.

Crash Overide's picture

"Voters in the US also did'nt do the right thing."

 

Since when does voting count?

otto skorzeny's picture

the MSM told me to so 'tis true

A Nanny Moose's picture

It is not the voters that count, but who counts the votes - Jose Stalin.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

those of us who wish to do a right thing: if you are registered voter with a D or R..change to 3rd party or Indie, it is not like I am asking you to take up arms. this more than calling reps or mailing congress will impact the pols.

It would be great if only 10% or less were registered with the two headed party now in power..just do it and avoid violence.

newengland's picture

Perhaps potential voters in the USA did do the right thing.

Voting numbers were down; record abstainers from the red and blue pill debt drug and pushers.

Italy is bust, and it is good that its people protest as they go to the gallows.

Meanwhile, most able tax paying hardworking Americans  prepare to defend themselves from central tyranny rather than vote for more tyranny.

Physical gold, silver, land and close community. And guns, as per the Constitution. Defy the money changers and tyrannical central control.

That is the USA, as ever was. Sorry for the others: their choice.

McMolotov's picture

Fuck 'em.

Fuck 'em hard, fuck 'em deep. Fuck 'em sideways (with a sheep?).

One is starting to suspect these guys know they'll probably end up swinging from lamp posts before all is said and done. Kinda makes you wonder what sort of shit they'll pull to try to save their necks. Desperate times call for desperate measures and all that.

Winston Churchill's picture

DHS purchasing 1.75 billion rounds of ammo should give you a clue as

to what measures they are planning for.