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Citi: "This Is The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When a note by a Citi FX strategist begins with the following proclamation endorsing outright fascist despotism, you know it's going to be good: "This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing." Perhaps if Citi would be so kind to overrule the democratic vote, in which 55% or the majority of the people voted against the "right thing",  and impose its own unelected Italian dictator, just like Goldman did in November 2011, that long EURUSD call would be happier? Then it only gets better: "Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry" (sic). True: some things outright money debasement by central banks can't buy - for everything else there are Siberian Gulags. And the absolute punchline: "Still the outcome does not seem so dire that a bit of growth and ECB flexibility could not turn it around." Why yes, all Europe needs is a "little growth" obviously in lieu of lots of growth, but frankly it will settle for any growth - something it has been unable to do under the wise tutelage of the banker-dominated oligarchy for the past four years, as for that little "ECB flexibility" - wink wink: just where would you like those Euro Stoxx Steve?

From Citi's Steven Englander:

1) The bad news first. This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing. Instead they gave surprising support to politicians who reject austerity and, in some cases, the euro. This could become a major problem if it proves contagious. The feel-good from the runup in Italian asset markets was not enough to offset the feel-bad from austerity, low growth and unemployment. If all it would take to fix this was an ECB rate cut, they would do so immediately, but euro zone politicians may need to ease fiscal constraints  and find ways to quickly stimulate growth. Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry. Still the outcome does not seem so dire that a bit of growth and ECB flexibility could not turn it around.

 

Outcome for the euro - negative in short term and maybe further to go, but considering that euro spent months happily over 1.40 with Berlusconi as PM, this is a set back but not a catastrophe. 

 

2) JPY - collateral damage and position cutting. Its not as if any new JPY information came out in the middle of the Tokyo night when markets went pear-shaped . Yesterday's high to low range in EURJPY touched seven big figures. So there were either weak JPY shorts or EUR longs. The BoJ's mistake in 2009-2012 was letting bad news elsewhere lead to yen appreciation, a double hit. If the new policymaking regime is different, it will be because it will resist JPY appreciation on bad news.

 

Outcome for JPY - temporary JPY plus,  but hard to see the incentive for the Japanese government to do anything but talk yen down and Nikkei up again – USDJPY buying opportunity.

 

3) Monday’s shock helps Fed Chairman Bernanke Tuesday as these developments argue that the world is not a safe place and that a QE buffer against negative economic or financial shocks needs to be maintained. Bernanke will argue for Fed exIt (Fexit?) as soon as possible but not necessarily anytime soon.  Very short term I think this will give markets a boost, but data in following weeks are a risk.

 

Outcome for USD – Fed Chairman will likely try and talk risk appetite back into market, unwinding USD gains. The problem is that once we get past his testimony we may face some weak economic data and renewed concern that fiscal tightening is having a more negative effect than is priced into markets.

 

4) Positions were big drivers and concentrated positions were hit, while positionless but risk-correlated AUD and NZD were almost flat versus Friday. JPY stronger on JPY negative news.  This looks like a positioning and panic induced shift rather than a real risk sell-off. The Italian election is a definite EUR negative but other than with respect to the EUR, the major impact was in markets that were heavily positioned, not where there was bad news. Hence I think that dust will settle slowly in Europe but more quickly elsewhere – GBP, JPY weakness will resume.

* * *

Let's see what else could we add here:

5) If one ignores the 55% of the population that voted against the banker puppets in this election, then Monti and Bersani obviously get 100% of the vote. So you must buy EURUSD

6) Thank you docile little Greeks for doing "the right thing" in 2012

7) Remember "those" European "elections" in the 1920s? They actually were not that bad after all...

* * *

That smell? That's the stench of panicky desperation

 


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Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:30 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

I believe that would be "BUNGA BUNGA"

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

In Spanish .... it's "plata putas" !

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

C'mon Monedas!  Thatz "plata putaz!"

Especialmente plata en monedas...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Room 101
Room 101's picture

Argento puttane!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:16 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Hey Steven Englander, welcome to Iceland... Seems like the trend is finally catching on. Might I suggest a warm sweater? Things will start feeling much colder for you in the future. You globalist FASCIST motherfuckers have your day coming. I can't believe it has taken this long!

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:23 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

True.

'Lo there do I see my father. Lo there do I see my mother, my Sisters and my brothers.

Lo there do I see the line of my people, back to the beginning. Lo, they do call me, they bid me take my place among them, in the halls of Valhalla, where the brave may live forever.'

Death comes, and only valor and defense of neighbour and country in this land makes the wait worthwhile. 

No surrender.


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Ban KKiller
Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:17 | Link to Comment IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Is it just me or does it seem that bankers are incredibly inept at running the world. They buy the politicians, the media, the educaitonal institutes and decide who and what gets money and YET THEY ARE SO F'N WORTHLESS, IT IS LAUGHABLE. Maybe the problem is that they are not actually trying to run the world for the benefit of the owlrd, but just for themselves and so they don't give a damn about anyone or anything else. It would explain a lot... especially that murder thing that they like to do.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:46 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

...especially that murder thing they like to do.

So long as someone else pulls the trigger and they are pretty mummy boys sat in a comfy place.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

You know you're finally starting to win when they get pissed off at you.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Let's check our history .... Mussolini's grandfather and father were Socialists, he himself was a Socialist, his children and grand children are Socialists .... except Mussolini went right wing five years before he died .... is that the line ????

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:51 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Nope.

Mussolini defined fascism: state socialism; the ownership of all people and companies under control of State and the Vatican.

It is a filthy thing, previously defined by the Vatican as corporatism. Powerbrokers - gotta hate 'em, worthless thug bully boys prancing about in fancy suits  so long as someone else pulls the trigger and pays their bill.

O'bomba and Repugnants are prime examples.

Viva Italia, the modern Italy, defying gangsta bankstas.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:19 | Link to Comment legorf
legorf's picture

"This Is The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing"

 

They probably did the right thing for themselves, just not the right thing for you Mr. Englander.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Theos
Theos's picture

To these people right and wrong depends on which side of the trade theyre on.

 

I agree with them but im a horrible human being.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:23 | Link to Comment goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

So begins the mediterranean spring

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

they'll have to vote again; or until they get it right; like the irish;  at the end they got it right and bailed out banksters.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:25 | Link to Comment loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

The same company that gives us Jacob "Corncob" Lew...  must be Obunga's new catamite...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:27 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

You know things are fucked when Fascism isn't even good enough for the Italians.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:14 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

When they hung Mussolini they hung his mistress Clara Petacci with him; fucked up indeed. 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:31 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:40 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Yeah, Buddha .... "Springtime in Sardinia" .... it's the sardine canning season .... a special time in Cagliari .... even the North Korean consulate gets into the swing .... with Sardine Kim Chee !       I like sardines served on a bed of kelp .... garnished with gardenias !

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Looks like we need to seriously revisit facism. Made the trains run on time, and crushed the mafia. Oh, and it killed a lot less people than communism. Almost forgot.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:53 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

But I don't like the rent-a-cops asking me for my papers.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:03 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Too late. You are only asked for verified papers if you are a bona fide nationale of any country. All the bankster chosen slaves can flood in, reduce national wages, and commit any crime with impunity because they are politically useful and bankser gangster useful as illegal aliens:-

Paid low...and no taxes for them or their employer.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

In Europe at the time .... there were Monarchists and Socialists .... Fascism was just a variety of Socialism .... there were no Libertarians .... except for 3 in Austria !

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:59 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Fascism traveled well, apparently...to the USA when Mussolini threw out the mafia and they landed in New York and Hitler lost the war, and his devotees landed in the USA, thanks to the CIA and gangsta bankstas like the Fed.

NASA was asked: why did you win the moon race? The reply: Because our Germans (Nazis) were better than theirs.

History rhymes. See the criminals thrown out of Cuba and central America, landing in the USA. See the freak medievalists from Pakistan invading the UK.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:09 | Link to Comment post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

NASA won the space race because our Nazis were huge fans of Goddard's work. They plainly admitted as much.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

And our Nazis are huge fans of the CIA and O'bomba.

My father was a world class engineer who joked that life was too short to learn to speak German.

He did, an excellent engineer, and excellent American.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:10 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

i especially like the part where the leader is strung up and dragged through the streets. can we just skip the middle part? if amtrak ran on time i would miss the train.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Uhm, hello? It's 2013 and I think the trains are running on time.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 03:02 | Link to Comment bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

How about regulated capitaliism?  How about term limits?  How about revision of the campaign donations that allow big corporations to buy politicians?  How about a regulated education system that does not send kids into the streets who are too stupid to know what is what.  How about fair competition? 

How about rationale thinking for a fucking change?  How about that?  Get rid fo thebanks and break up the large coporations, tell globalization to have fun, America and Canada are bowing out and tell the rothschild family to enjoy life in the suburbs because without the banks garotte around the neck of the global financial system, they'd be broke and if there is a god, humble.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:46 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The 'great unwashed' masses in Italy have spoken.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:00 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Cagliari was an open air latrine area, historically, for sardine fishermen .... going back to the Phoenicians .... the name stunk .... but it stuck ! The fishermen could always find their way home at night in a fog !

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:54 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

The most scary part is that only the bankers know what's right for the people.if so why there is any election, just let them decide who should lead the world. The rest of us will take the guns and take them out one by one.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:58 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Optimist :-)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:00 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Hey, "Voters didn't do the right thing" in the 2012 US elections. I don't recall seeing you writing any Citi research note commenting on the lack of "austerity" in that result.

However I do recall reading about a senior Citi executive getting his contract structured so that IF he did manage to get a job in the new Obama Admin he would get a $5MM bonus to leave the bank!

Weill, Rubin, Prince, Pandit, and Lew....all supported NO to austerity, and YES for Obama.

Perhaps someone should send this string of pearl to Bunga Bunga for his ad campaign.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:01 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I am sick and fucking tired of citigroup and their socialist propaganda.  Citi is a socialist institution if there ever was one.  How many times has this company failed outright, and then been brought back from bankruptcy by taxpayer loans and gifts?  This company doesn't even deserve to exist, much less have an opinion about anything.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Please, please, I beg you! It hurts my brain the persistence in labeling things so awkwardly!

Citi socialist? PLIZZZZZZZZ!!!!!

GO BACK TO SCHOOL OR GET INTO IT IF YOU'VE NOT BEEN THERE YET!

(And I repeat: I'm not standing for Socialism. Just think it's necessary to understand reality and it won't happen in such a mess of ideas and concepts!)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 02:47 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

I'll take Fascism for $500 Alex.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:10 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

you've just redefined the sense of that word : Socialism. Rockafella was the world's greatest S, along with JPM!

well done! 

Now we'll let Grillo define what capitalism means. I don't think that will make the Squid n WS smile! His definition of "capitalism". 

On Fascism we all agree! 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

The euro-peon union is sending a fact finding mission to Moscow to understand better election processing techniques, that more closely align with worlds best practice...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

Wow. They sure are arrogant bastards.  Spoilt brat in the room alert. Did'nt go your way waaaahhhhh...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 23:45 | Link to Comment TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

I'm starting to think this banksters have actually lost sense of reality or at least sense of humanity (if they ever had it). Just like Hitler crawling to Germany's top of the power and enchanting million of people with his snake's hissing, dragging everybody into deep darkness. There's this path also... Who links events and people.  I was thinking... We should do something. Things don't seem to improve, on the contrary.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar

http://nstarzone.com/HITLER.html

http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Fascism/Wall_Street_Rise_Hitler.html

We should prevent such things to happen again to all of us. Evolve. Turn our backs on them some way, just turn our backs on them.

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Decimus Lunius ...
Decimus Lunius Luvenalis's picture

So ratifying the Masstricht Treaty in the first place wasn't a mistake?  Governments promised cradle to the grave welfare, injected its euphoria intravaneously, and now the smack is too expensive thereby causing withdrawal, and we are ever more surprised that they might vote for anti-austerity politicians? The Euro doesn't work.  If all this bullshit for the last 5 years doesn't prove that, if 50%+ youth unemployment doesn't prove it, if fucking eating horsemeat labeled as beef because beef is too damn expensive doesn't prove it, then, Jesus, let them turn into Somalia.  At least then, maybe the U.S. could supply the different factions with arms (made in China, of course) to reduce our own deficit. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:40 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

"let them turn into Somalia.  At least then, maybe the U.S. could supply the different factions with arms (made in China, of course) to reduce our own deficit. "

Shit!

Someone leaked the latest " Kissinger plan"

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Decimus Lunius ...
Decimus Lunius Luvenalis's picture

So ratifying the Masstricht Treaty in the first place wasn't a mistake?  Governments promised cradle to the grave welfare, injected its euphoria intravaneously, and now the smack is too expensive thereby causing withdrawal, and we are ever more surprised that they might vote for anti-austerity politicians? The Euro doesn't work.  If all this bullshit for the last 5 years doesn't prove that, if 50%+ youth unemployment doesn't prove it, if fucking eating horsemeat labeled as beef because beef is too damn expensive doesn't prove it, then, Jesus, let them turn into Somalia.  At least then, maybe the U.S. could supply the different factions with arms (made in China, of course) to reduce our own deficit. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 05:06 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Maastricht did not promise anything to People it was for Politicians and it basically dealt with institutional frameworks and EMU. The EU is simply the erection of yet another Pan-European Empire to bring the peoples of Europe to heel and to eradicate the threat Democracy poses to Oligarchies

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 00:30 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

+5

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 04:51 | Link to Comment skydrake
skydrake's picture

"This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing."

 

Absolutely false.

For istance Mussolini took the power definitely in Italy by a regular election the 6 April 1924, thanks the "Acerbo law", an electoral law with a huge premium of majorance similar to the "Porcellum" the current Italian electoral law:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acerbo_Law

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Mussolini




Tue, 02/26/2013 - 05:00 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Why don't the Citi Analysts sacrifice some of their own to win people over ? They could advocate putting Draghi and Monti on trial together with Dimon, Ackermann, Blankfein, Fuld, and the cast of bankers in Greece, Italy and Spain and having them publicly executed. Purging the system this way might persuade voters to back a policy once its major beneficiaries and their families have been liquidated. It will happen eventually, so why not shorten the time frame and expedite matters. Noone seriously thinks Italy has made a more dire choice than it had - it is all Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 05:28 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Interesting comment in today's Guardian newspaper:

 

Grillo's exclusion from television is crucial to understanding the man and his success. It added yet more anger to the ranting monologues that had become his speciality. And it forced him to turn to what was then a medium decidedly outside the mainstream, founding a blog that soon became a samizdat for the young, frustrated, indignant and internet-savvy.

His readers supplied the core around which his friend and his digital guru, Roberto Casaleggio, were later to build M5S. Grillo's immensely successful blog underlines an important point about Italy's recent political history.

Twice in the last two decades, outsiders have burst onto the political scene. Both have done so by exploiting their understanding of the medium that was most relevant at the time. Berlusconi took Italy by storm in 1994 after creating a virtual monopoly of private television; Grillo has relied instead on making himself a master of digital communication.

The M5S, founded in 2009, grew out of what were initially Grillo fan clubs. Their members were encouraged to organise face-to-face encounters through the Meetup website.

Grillo's attachment to the internet and its culture remains as firm as ever.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:01 | Link to Comment DrDre
DrDre's picture

Voters in Italy did not do the right thing because they did not elect an un-elected goldmanite technocrat who did a lot to salvage banks at the expenses of ordinary citizens. Even the Vatican intervened by saying that "Monti was on a divine mission".

I think voters did the best thing in a long time.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

del

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 08:09 | Link to Comment bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

Dude, "Siberian gulags" are so last century. Today it's North Korean Gulags.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

LOL Jack Lew:

The rules that apply to little people, including giving accurate, as opposed to strained-at-best, answers to Congressmen, just don’t apply to him (Lew). The idea that his pay package was basically a huge option payment by Citi on the pretty good odds that he’d land another big deal official post, doesn’t seem to occur to him. And why is that worth so much to Citi? Well, as we know, corruption in the US does not (often) take the form of briefcases full of cash being left in an office. It’s an ugly combination of intellectual capture, of mutual backscratching, and “don’t rock the boat,” of accepting norms of discourse, behavior, and action, that circumscribe the range of possible actions.

Lew no doubt believes he was paid according to merit, despite the blindingly obviously evidence to the contrary. And that sense of entitlement is what will enable him to kill old people without a second though. Because that is what winning cuts to Social Security and Medicare will do, given that Obama punted on his chance to tackle the health care cost problem.

I had predicted Lew would have us wanting Geithner back. At least Geithner would get twitchy when grilled. That means, somewhere inside, he actually knows right from wrong. Lew is such a bland technocrat that I wonder whether he has any compunctions.

Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/02/jack-lews-grotesque-citi-employment-deal-and-the-institutionalization-of-corruption.html#APKFFrpps357saQ6.99
Tue, 02/26/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment cccmachine
cccmachine's picture

Viva El Duce

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

So the election of Hollande was a good choice?  Last i looked all the rich left dodge and the France was on the brink of collapse.  This is like saying that Obama is good for the US economy!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment MarcusLCrassus
MarcusLCrassus's picture

Where "doing the right thing" = doing everything the bankers told them to do. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!