Did Bunga Bunga Just Kill The US Housing Recovery As Lumber Futures Plunge

Tyler Durden's picture

It seems that as long as lumber futures are rising they are an excellent indicator of the strength of the housing recovery, but once they show any weakness, it is technical or negligible. A few things we know: inventory is epically low; homebuilder stocks are priced for perfection (and missing); NAHB confidence is rolling over; and now Lumber futures have tumbled by the most over the last five days in 15 months. So much for a sustained 'recovery'.

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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WayBehind's picture

Who needs lumber? Gov will provide shelter for all of us at no cost.

Manthong's picture

Lumber , schlumber..


Have you tried buying an overpriced, undersized "2x4" that didn’t look like a pretzel lately?

malikai's picture

Apparently, Soybean will not be consumed under Bunga rule.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/02/25/soybean-3/

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Fence rails are $11.27 for 2 x 6 x 16 pressure treated.  4 x 6 posts are $14.  If you add stain and concrete four rail is at $5.00 per foot...just for materials.

Fuck you, Bernanke.

Peachfuzz's picture

Gotta love it. I saw for a living, and I sell for way less than that just to make ends meet. The government and the gas stations that put diesel in the truck make more off my lumber than I do. Everytime.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

This bubble's bursting: Lumber puncture

just as painful, too

Raymond Reason's picture

We build most residential structures in the US out of wood, because it's cheaper than concrete and steel, such as the structures in which most eastern europeans live.  Truth is, only the immediate costs are less.  Have you ever done a google map search for fire stations in your area?  You will be shocked at the number of pushpins, they are nearly as ubiquitous as gas stations.  I would guess the cost of building, maintaining, equipping, and staffing these public sink holes far outweighs the difference in construction costs between wood and steel. 

DeadFred's picture

Finally. I just had to pay $16 for 1/2 inch OSB that cost $7 a year ago. 

PartysOver's picture

Dude, seriously.  Are you going to believe your eyes or the credibility of the gov't.  THERE IS NO INFLATION!

 

Stuck on Zero's picture

There's no inflation.  Consumers can move into containers instead of homes.  Lumber is sky high but containers (a la BDI) are really cheap.

 

 

MSimon's picture

They will build it out of steal.

Edward Fiatski's picture

Well, this will definitely leave a mark.

U.S. Consumer confidence is tom @ 15:00 GMT, along with House Price Index for Dec & Q4.

seek's picture

I'll take the under on confidence, if the number is legit.

I've never seen anything like what I'm seeing now, including '08.

Edward Fiatski's picture

I'm getting the same vibes. Durables probably are going to be ugly as well.

williambanzai7's picture

Go long Chinese walnuts...

DosZap's picture

No it was the INCOME TAX EXEMPTIONS CUTS coming.......................

Mortgage Interest, and Charitable Contributions.

As they see it, ONLY the wealthy ITEMIZE and use those deductions.(THEIR WORDS<NOT MINE)

OT: as an Aside, Obama has been caught using Spambot people on Twitter to inflate the numbers for his GUN CONTROL AGENDA.

Caught by Steve Stockman from Texas.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

One would think lumber grows on trees like fiat.

Super Broccoli's picture

the housing market got gang bungaed !

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

That is odd; I would think we need moar lumber (gallows and bridges) for hung parliments in Italy.

 

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Whose mistress is that in the middle?

seek's picture

That's Claretta Petacci, Benito Mussolini's babe. One of the rare cases where lynching is a STD.

LongSoupLine's picture

Bunga is the fucking stick in the Keynesian bicycle spokes.

I fucking love it!

Fuck you Goldman and Bernanke. Eat Bunga hot steaming shit you fucking dickeared pricks.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Clearly your mother never washed your dirty mouth out with Mr. Bubbles for such talk. :)

Edward Fiatski's picture

Such talk shows Spirit, such talk shows Character, such talk is needed in these difficult times.

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

This lumber futures action is simply a reflection of the fact that home builders, having for years now observed a national economy supported by nothing more than printed paper, are finally coming around to the recognition/conclusion that their product - newly-built homes - need not be supported by a material as real and substantial - and costly - as wood.

Edward Fiatski's picture

Check all the walls for thickness, if you're purchasing a new home. :)

Wakanda's picture

Well put! 

Never underestimate the PoWeR of word like BuNGa  -  FiSHeS!

Straw Dog's picture

LongSoupLine

"Bunga is the fucking stick in the Keynesian bicycle spokes.

I fucking love it!"

Love the phrase, so descriptive

bank guy in Brussels's picture

Bunga to the rescue

Basta to the euro

Pasta for dinner !

Bringing this bitch down is good for the long-term ... short term explosion is what the whole world needs

lolmao500's picture

now Lumber futures have tumbled by the most over the last five days in 15 months

That's it, Bernanke needs to print MOAR to save the lumber industry!

Edward Fiatski's picture

It's the other way around!!!!

mind_imminst's picture

That is what I expect. Any sharp dips in equities will bring the FED in at 2X, 3X, 4X what they have been printing.

G_T_A_44's picture

" A few things we know: inventory is epically low."

 

Easy solution.

 

Release some of the 9MM units in shadow inventory. 

 

Oh wait, what would that do to pricing?

H E D G E H O G's picture

beat me to it 'Horsemeat Man:) i would think a Million RealMan March on washington, equiped with 1,000,000 custom made two X four clubs would help the cause.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

It's all George Bush's fault!

Oh wait, no, it's all Silvio Berlusconi's fault!

No..., wait, it's all Newt Gingrich's fault...  Waaah...?

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

The administration is endeavoring to blame it all on the U.S. Congress, one party in particular.

Oblamer is blameless, always and forever.

bullmarket's picture

That's your definition of a plunge? Bunga!

azzhatter's picture

But...but...but   Sandy!?  Bob Pissani is bullish             How can this be?

azzhatter's picture

Fuck You Bernanke

Shizzmoney's picture

The only thing being built these days seems to be the IRS bridges to our collective assholes.

Bungalow's picture

Housing needs another haircut.

orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index says the same thing - top is in place and we are in decline.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-falls-hard-breaks-...

AC_Doctor's picture

Timmmmbbbbbeeerrrrr, while crushing the green shoots!  False economy, false President, false paper money....

disabledvet's picture

"there's always a bull market in bullshit." and to think Seeking Alpha opined about "the great market surge due to elections." since when are these folks "betting on elections" I thought. We'll see what tomorrow brings of course. Peace in our time? A chicken in every pot? A return to normalcy? Only HERE will you not HEAR any of that. (and yes...Bunga Bunga good...betting on election outcomes bad

rsnoble's picture

This must be related to fuckhead bens housing recovery speech.

GrinandBearit's picture

"Are you threatening my bungahole?"

Hongcha's picture

Berlusconi is too wily to play the role of the odd man out, this late in his career.  Unlike in the U.S., he could find himself offed in short order over on 'The Boot'.  He will be brought to heel.