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The Un-Great Un-Rotation

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If bond yields are higher, according to the endless talking head chatter on financial comedy channels, due to a "stronger economy" and the 'any second now' exit of Fed monetization, we wonder: what do sliding bond yield indicate? (10Y 1.87 handle now -13bps from earlier highs)

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:05 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
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Bunga Bunga

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
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The Careless Whisper Macy's/JCPenney/MarthaStewart Breaking News Update & Threadjacking

"We Were, We Were, We Were Friends." Terry Lundgren, Macy's CEO, Testified In New York Supreme Court That He Hung Up The Phone On Martha Stewart After She Told Him Of The JCPenney Deal.

http://www.businessinsider.com/terry-lundgren-testifies-against-martha-2...

Mister Lundgren Wore A Black Pin-Stripped Suit To Court

https://twitter.com/womensweardaily

PHOTO: Terry Lundgren Outside New York Supreme Court Today

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0bfOfQx88D3tf/x160.jpg

Cramer: Macy's Will Win

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11851212/1/cramer-quick-take-im-on-macys-...

 

 

 

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
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MUST...DRIVE...10Y...YIELD...TO........ZERO!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

cant wait

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:22 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

10yrs can be perfectly not zero, NEGATIVE

 

Remember No Real + Growth or very low + (Deflation from -3 to -10%)

 

= RISK ASSETS KAPUT per one decade.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Zero is the common bitch!

 it keeps the Federal Reserve & The minions happy.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

what do sliding bond yield indicate?

 

Buy more gold!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:28 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
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Gold is insignificant to society and low bond yields are not relevant to it.

Rather, low bond yields are a result of fear in Europe.  The money is returning to where it must be amid Europe worry, US T's.

And let's keep in mind we have 2+% GDP drag pending.  The R word of recession can't be far away, and that should take the 10 yr yield negative.

They still have not embraced the reality of there being no solution.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

"Gold is insignificant to society"     Until it is.

LOL! It has a nasty little habit of popping up significantly at the worst possible time.

Like,

Now.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It ever became a threat, transactions of it will be taxed to oblivion.

And you actually know this to be true and deny it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Another threadjack...

 

I just heard on Rush that the US Consumer Protection Bureau is getting more buzz in DC about .gov taking over (well, giving you a guaranteed 3%) the 401k's...  

It's coming...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:44 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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hey dochen do you happen to have a link? 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
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I heard him say the same thing today- .gov to our rescue!!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:45 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
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They're calling them "R Bonds".

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20090607/REG/906059955#

Recently went to a Finserv conference and they are scared shitless of this. Most don't think it will happen but those seem to be famous last words.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:13 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I'm carefully watching this.  If it appears that it is going to happen, I'm out, going Galt, finding a simpler lifestyle in a remote, more Constitution-respecting location until the inevitable happens.  I'll take the 40% tax penalty in one painful blow, rather than be tortured by inflation for God knows how long.  I promised myself 3 years ago that this was a line in the sand/breaking point and I'm sticking to it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Auntie Lo
Auntie Lo's picture

Amazing this was first proposed in 2009 or so. Trying to get my 401(k) close to home so I can pull it quick when I want to do so. Unfortunately lots of it IS in annuities now and apparently I can't cash those out.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:48 | Link to Comment BullsNBeers
BullsNBeers's picture

Fucking scumbags.

First we have to kick in to SSI because we can't be trusted to plan for ourselves. Of course the return of these funds are only a "political promise" and not an obligation so good luck with seeing that money again if you're more than a few years out from retirement. In a right world, taking peoples money against their will and not giving it back is considered theft.

Now we can't be trusted to manage money we have privately earmarked for our retirement?

Why am I not surprised?

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
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That chart says it all doesn't it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:05 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
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Someone on here told me to short USTs. You bastards!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3A9AiLt9nw

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

You misheard.

Short Greek bonds.if  you can find a counterparty that is.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:06 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
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Welcome to deflation world vs Central Banks Intervention...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:12 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
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Ben S. Bernanke's parrot:

"Sqawk!  Stawks higher!  Sqawk!  Virtuous Circle!  Sqawk!  Let my term end before it all comes crashing down!"

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Other than the Fed, other central printers, big pension/mutual/"investor"/hedge funds, WHO is so keen on buying these things? 

What if they're wrong?   What if we get a collapse?  Or price inflation?  Or mass unemployment?  Or a run on the dollar? 

Yes, BUNGA BUNGA.    Hahahaha...! 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

No one wants to buy this shit, but as you point out, some funds and insurance companies have no choice.

So, any rise in interest rates bankrupts everyone, including the banks.  Therefore, nothing can ever be allowed to change.

Who but Ben the Bald could fuck up an economy on this scale?

Imagine what this does for Calpers and the rest of those pension retards.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

I'm just saying - what if we DON'T get lasting deflation in prices?  Or what if we also get deflation in asset "values" too?

As it stands, this bond-buying is in preparation for deflationary outcomes.  The big bond-buyers are losing either way: either the buying fails and rates rise OR they slowly get penurized with paltry ZIRP yields...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Couldn't agree more.  Name your poison.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:58 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Deflation in what PRICES...PLEASE tell me.  Nothing I see, eat, drive, wear, watch, communicate with, drink, or anything else shows any sign of DEFLATION.  Bubbles, like housing or stocks, poping is not DEFLATION...it is realization.  I just mailed a 2 ounce letter to Europe that cost 1.78 two weeks ago, and NOW cost $6.66 at the 'going out of business' Post Office.

The banks are taking a commission buying the bonds with money the FED gives them to buy the bonds with.  They don't care what the yeilds are, they are making money on..."volume".

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

What deflation???   "On a clear day you can see (inflation) forever..."

INFLATION!!!!!   Doesn't have to be driven by "economic activity".

I'm 40% physical gold, 30% paid-off real estate, 15% PM stocks, 10% cash, 5% collectibles...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:08 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Euro short, ratatatata....

<target 1.10-1.05

Spain and italians bond (10yrs) = 11%

Spain .- NeoJapanizated

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

keep your Euros in a German financial institution just for good measure

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
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Or in shotguns and silver for better measure:)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
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I want German Banks to do exactly the same as the whole spanish financial system has done. 

I mean-..." Analyze one by one, doing a Stress Test, with the EBA granted access"

 

 

Why German banks are avoiding to be "investigated"???? easy...cos they have exactly the same problem as Spanish Saving Banks, Exactly the same.

 

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:37 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

German banks are worse off. They haven't been able to collect on the bills of exports into the rest of Europe. Germany has exported about 2 trillion worth of goods into the rest of Europe MORE than Germany has imported. The difference is made up with the ECB transfers. But bottom line is that Germany's manufacturing consumed resources and paid wages to produce the stuff they sold on credit to everyone else and they got paid in apples and oranges (literally) and transfer "credits".

Germany had the hard cost of production, money left Germany. Germany cannot collect on the outstanding 2 trillion or the whole ponzi comes crashing down.

LOL

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:08 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
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I'd like to see a chart which shows this in context. It's not hard to make an ugly sensational chart is it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you want an ugly sensational chart?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TBT&ql=1

you bastards!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:18 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Plenty of volume.  Stupidity must be contagious.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:20 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
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never downgrade/short a man with a printing press

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:39 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

I found some cash under the mattress. Trading the Vix for a good laugh. I don't care if its lost or if it appreciates. It's funny money.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
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TBT YTD Return:  6.30%

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Sliding bond yields means the meme is still alive, and it's telling the sheep there's a temporary/cyclic (not systemic) aberration in the Force.  Either that or sliding bond yields = square root of -1

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:09 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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Hurry Everybody to the burning house now!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

so someone is buying that shit ...

 

let me guess, the same shorting the euro and italian bonds ? it's funny in a way, Bernanke has to print like a mad man to devaluate, here in europe we've got PIIGS ;-)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

Bob Doll on CNBC, "the U.S. is a paragon of strength". Take away $85 billion a month in QE and let's see how "strong" things really are. They actually pay people like him. A lot too...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Mario Draghi " Ive lost the game" - " I recognise this financial system is the biggest fraud ever done with central banks intervention"- There is no real market- No real transactions- Just Limbo and Algos."

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:12 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

just limbo and algos and bunga! lotsa bunga!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Truly amazing. And idiots buy this market. 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
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yeah but i think it's waaaaay too early to drop italian bonds ! you should wait for a 6-7% yield when Goldman Slut force them to vote for someone else ;-)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:14 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

USH3 is down over 6% until now. This is no big deal at this stage.

NAS looking increasingly topped however, more so than the other more HFT ALGO driven indexes.

On the sidelines here, except Metal.

I had expected the bottom/top to come at the same time as all the dumb money (managed money) start to unwind the Long ES short GLD thing they’ve had going on. Bullion banks have transferred large amounts of short risk to the hedge funds and are now setting up for the rippa.

The pump and dump continues..

but still.. all the bear chatter only makes this thing go higher. Needs a sizeable break to turn it, I think soon but it may just run up one more time. And when it does happen I think the USD will fall too just like in 2007

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:37 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You are hopelessly stuck in the old normal when humans chattered or heard chatter and humans pumped and dumped.

S&P volume is 1998 levels and HFT is 80% of that.  Your experience in the market was for a market that no longer exists.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Everything - including US Treasuries - now trades like a penny stock.

Ain't that great?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Edward Fiatski
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Under 2%? Almost free money!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

It indicates exodus to safety Tyler ... lol

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment astoriajoe
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"we wonder: what do sliding bond yield indicate?"

Fear. Yellow freakin' fear.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

i remember a time where people were buying bonds because it was safe and had a reasonable return ... a time where asset prices were driven by fundamentals ...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Calling a trading top in US equities SPX < 1530.94... 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:28 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
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US DOWNGRADED to SINGLE A. (Inside Info by Goldman Sachs)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

So when will this information hit the news wire?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

To send money to Japanese and European bonds, so we all go down together. Like Ben giving money to Eurozone banks via US based subsidiaries.

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