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The Un-Great Un-Rotation
If bond yields are higher, according to the endless talking head chatter on financial comedy channels, due to a "stronger economy" and the 'any second now' exit of Fed monetization, we wonder: what do sliding bond yield indicate? (10Y 1.87 handle now -13bps from earlier highs)
Chart: Bloomberg
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Bunga Bunga
The Careless Whisper Macy's/JCPenney/MarthaStewart Breaking News Update & Threadjacking
"We Were, We Were, We Were Friends." Terry Lundgren, Macy's CEO, Testified In New York Supreme Court That He Hung Up The Phone On Martha Stewart After She Told Him Of The JCPenney Deal.
http://www.businessinsider.com/terry-lundgren-testifies-against-martha-2...
Mister Lundgren Wore A Black Pin-Stripped Suit To Court
https://twitter.com/womensweardaily
PHOTO: Terry Lundgren Outside New York Supreme Court Today
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0bfOfQx88D3tf/x160.jpg
Cramer: Macy's Will Win
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11851212/1/cramer-quick-take-im-on-macys-...
MUST...DRIVE...10Y...YIELD...TO........ZERO!
cant wait
10yrs can be perfectly not zero, NEGATIVE
Remember No Real + Growth or very low + (Deflation from -3 to -10%)
= RISK ASSETS KAPUT per one decade.
Zero is the common bitch!
it keeps the Federal Reserve & The minions happy.
what do sliding bond yield indicate?
Buy more gold!
Gold is insignificant to society and low bond yields are not relevant to it.
Rather, low bond yields are a result of fear in Europe. The money is returning to where it must be amid Europe worry, US T's.
And let's keep in mind we have 2+% GDP drag pending. The R word of recession can't be far away, and that should take the 10 yr yield negative.
They still have not embraced the reality of there being no solution.
"Gold is insignificant to society" Until it is.
LOL! It has a nasty little habit of popping up significantly at the worst possible time.
Like,
Now.
It ever became a threat, transactions of it will be taxed to oblivion.
And you actually know this to be true and deny it.
Another threadjack...
I just heard on Rush that the US Consumer Protection Bureau is getting more buzz in DC about .gov taking over (well, giving you a guaranteed 3%) the 401k's...
It's coming...
hey dochen do you happen to have a link?
I heard him say the same thing today- .gov to our rescue!!!
They're calling them "R Bonds".
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20090607/REG/906059955#
Recently went to a Finserv conference and they are scared shitless of this. Most don't think it will happen but those seem to be famous last words.
I'm carefully watching this. If it appears that it is going to happen, I'm out, going Galt, finding a simpler lifestyle in a remote, more Constitution-respecting location until the inevitable happens. I'll take the 40% tax penalty in one painful blow, rather than be tortured by inflation for God knows how long. I promised myself 3 years ago that this was a line in the sand/breaking point and I'm sticking to it.
Amazing this was first proposed in 2009 or so. Trying to get my 401(k) close to home so I can pull it quick when I want to do so. Unfortunately lots of it IS in annuities now and apparently I can't cash those out.
Fucking scumbags.
First we have to kick in to SSI because we can't be trusted to plan for ourselves. Of course the return of these funds are only a "political promise" and not an obligation so good luck with seeing that money again if you're more than a few years out from retirement. In a right world, taking peoples money against their will and not giving it back is considered theft.
Now we can't be trusted to manage money we have privately earmarked for our retirement?
Why am I not surprised?
That chart says it all doesn't it.
Someone on here told me to short USTs. You bastards!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3A9AiLt9nw
You misheard.
Short Greek bonds.if you can find a counterparty that is.
Welcome to deflation world vs Central Banks Intervention...
Ben S. Bernanke's parrot:
"Sqawk! Stawks higher! Sqawk! Virtuous Circle! Sqawk! Let my term end before it all comes crashing down!"
Other than the Fed, other central printers, big pension/mutual/"investor"/hedge funds, WHO is so keen on buying these things?
What if they're wrong? What if we get a collapse? Or price inflation? Or mass unemployment? Or a run on the dollar?
Yes, BUNGA BUNGA. Hahahaha...!
No one wants to buy this shit, but as you point out, some funds and insurance companies have no choice.
So, any rise in interest rates bankrupts everyone, including the banks. Therefore, nothing can ever be allowed to change.
Who but Ben the Bald could fuck up an economy on this scale?
Imagine what this does for Calpers and the rest of those pension retards.
I'm just saying - what if we DON'T get lasting deflation in prices? Or what if we also get deflation in asset "values" too?
As it stands, this bond-buying is in preparation for deflationary outcomes. The big bond-buyers are losing either way: either the buying fails and rates rise OR they slowly get penurized with paltry ZIRP yields...
Couldn't agree more. Name your poison.
Deflation in what PRICES...PLEASE tell me. Nothing I see, eat, drive, wear, watch, communicate with, drink, or anything else shows any sign of DEFLATION. Bubbles, like housing or stocks, poping is not DEFLATION...it is realization. I just mailed a 2 ounce letter to Europe that cost 1.78 two weeks ago, and NOW cost $6.66 at the 'going out of business' Post Office.
The banks are taking a commission buying the bonds with money the FED gives them to buy the bonds with. They don't care what the yeilds are, they are making money on..."volume".
What deflation??? "On a clear day you can see (inflation) forever..."
INFLATION!!!!! Doesn't have to be driven by "economic activity".
I'm 40% physical gold, 30% paid-off real estate, 15% PM stocks, 10% cash, 5% collectibles...
Euro short, ratatatata....
<target 1.10-1.05
Spain and italians bond (10yrs) = 11%
Spain .- NeoJapanizated
keep your Euros in a German financial institution just for good measure
Or in shotguns and silver for better measure:)
I want German Banks to do exactly the same as the whole spanish financial system has done.
I mean-..." Analyze one by one, doing a Stress Test, with the EBA granted access"
Why German banks are avoiding to be "investigated"???? easy...cos they have exactly the same problem as Spanish Saving Banks, Exactly the same.
German banks are worse off. They haven't been able to collect on the bills of exports into the rest of Europe. Germany has exported about 2 trillion worth of goods into the rest of Europe MORE than Germany has imported. The difference is made up with the ECB transfers. But bottom line is that Germany's manufacturing consumed resources and paid wages to produce the stuff they sold on credit to everyone else and they got paid in apples and oranges (literally) and transfer "credits".
Germany had the hard cost of production, money left Germany. Germany cannot collect on the outstanding 2 trillion or the whole ponzi comes crashing down.
LOL
I'd like to see a chart which shows this in context. It's not hard to make an ugly sensational chart is it.
you want an ugly sensational chart?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TBT&ql=1
you bastards!
Plenty of volume. Stupidity must be contagious.
never downgrade/short a man with a printing press
I found some cash under the mattress. Trading the Vix for a good laugh. I don't care if its lost or if it appreciates. It's funny money.
TBT YTD Return: 6.30%
Sliding bond yields means the meme is still alive, and it's telling the sheep there's a temporary/cyclic (not systemic) aberration in the Force. Either that or sliding bond yields = square root of -1
Hurry Everybody to the burning house now!
so someone is buying that shit ...
let me guess, the same shorting the euro and italian bonds ? it's funny in a way, Bernanke has to print like a mad man to devaluate, here in europe we've got PIIGS ;-)
Bob Doll on CNBC, "the U.S. is a paragon of strength". Take away $85 billion a month in QE and let's see how "strong" things really are. They actually pay people like him. A lot too...
Mario Draghi " Ive lost the game" - " I recognise this financial system is the biggest fraud ever done with central banks intervention"- There is no real market- No real transactions- Just Limbo and Algos."
just limbo and algos and bunga! lotsa bunga!
Truly amazing. And idiots buy this market.
yeah but i think it's waaaaay too early to drop italian bonds ! you should wait for a 6-7% yield when Goldman Slut force them to vote for someone else ;-)
USH3 is down over 6% until now. This is no big deal at this stage.
NAS looking increasingly topped however, more so than the other more HFT ALGO driven indexes.
On the sidelines here, except Metal.
I had expected the bottom/top to come at the same time as all the dumb money (managed money) start to unwind the Long ES short GLD thing they’ve had going on. Bullion banks have transferred large amounts of short risk to the hedge funds and are now setting up for the rippa.
The pump and dump continues..
but still.. all the bear chatter only makes this thing go higher. Needs a sizeable break to turn it, I think soon but it may just run up one more time. And when it does happen I think the USD will fall too just like in 2007
You are hopelessly stuck in the old normal when humans chattered or heard chatter and humans pumped and dumped.
S&P volume is 1998 levels and HFT is 80% of that. Your experience in the market was for a market that no longer exists.
Everything - including US Treasuries - now trades like a penny stock.
Ain't that great?
Under 2%? Almost free money!!
It indicates exodus to safety Tyler ... lol
"we wonder: what do sliding bond yield indicate?"
Fear. Yellow freakin' fear.
i remember a time where people were buying bonds because it was safe and had a reasonable return ... a time where asset prices were driven by fundamentals ...
Calling a trading top in US equities SPX < 1530.94...
US DOWNGRADED to SINGLE A. (Inside Info by Goldman Sachs)
So when will this information hit the news wire?
To send money to Japanese and European bonds, so we all go down together. Like Ben giving money to Eurozone banks via US based subsidiaries.