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This Is What A Disorderly FXit Looks Like

Tyler Durden's picture


The biggest market in the world - foreign exchange - is having some issues here. Wherever you look, trends are snapping hard and levels are gapping. EURUSD is down 1% from Friday back below 1.31 (a 240 pip swing from pre-Italy levels); EURJPY has collapsed to one-month lows; EURCHF is heading the wrong way for the SNB; and carry trades are lifting in rip your face off mode. "That escalated quickly..."

EURJPY collapsed...


and wherever you look things are gapping...


And overall against the USD - it is getting a little jumpy...


Charts: Bloomberg


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Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:22 | 3274653 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Here it comes.  Godspeed all.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:24 | 3274667 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

FX pairs are bunga jumping

Should have been anticipated !

Will be wild at many moments as the euro-zone split unfolds

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:35 | 3274712 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Bunga-bunga appears to have briefly replaced Ben Bernanke as the most influential man in the world.  Who would've thunk it?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:50 | 3274744 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

So this is what they do at those G20 meetings

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:55 | 3274762 redpill
redpill's picture

Isn't CHF pegged to EUR these days?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:57 | 3275037 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

I think it's more like pegged by the euro, if you know what I mean...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:05 | 3275080 Homo Erectus
Homo Erectus's picture

No, the Swiss central bank had thrown the kitchen sink to try establish a floor on EURCHF at 1.20 and was happy to see the EUR recover in recent months...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | 3274680 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Bring it!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:33 | 3274929 dbTX
dbTX's picture

The new normal.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:22 | 3274660 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

You crazy FX fools. You're gonna meet my friend pain!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:07 | 3274806 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Misery loves company.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:23 | 3274662 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

EUR/CHF is going back to 1.20 within weeks.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | 3274679 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

And then EUR USD back to 1.60 as the southern countries leave the euro

CHF peg will be a lot more comfortable then

Would not be surprised if Switzerland even joins the Germanic euro once the Mediterranean countries, including France, have departed

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:35 | 3274715 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

We'll not join the Euro, even an adjusted version. There would be a popular referendum to stop that. Anything related to the EU or just Germany would be voted down.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:52 | 3274750 walküre
walküre's picture

Switzerland is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Without the ability to hoard American and German "winnings", the Swiss will have to sell lots and lots of cheese or chocolate on the international market. The biggest Swiss real estate market is in the ghettos of Eastern Europe. Good luck with that!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:04 | 3274796 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Truth. The Swiss folded like a cheap suit when the State Dept threats made UBS roll over and give up secrecy. Next is State Dept threats if they don't let Monsanto do what they want. That worked in many other countries.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:05 | 3274802 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

We have our own Monsanto - Syngenta.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:13 | 3274834 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

If one reads history, one may believe the Swiss to be the puppet masters here.

They might have peculiar predilictions in the sexual arena but they know how to wind a clock, know what I mean?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:26 | 3274881 walküre
walküre's picture

Yup +1

Rothschilds weren't Swiss but the Swiss sure seemed to like the Jews and their gold. No matter who delivered it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:00 | 3275056 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Specially the gold...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:10 | 3274823 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The domestic financial sector makes up about 10% of GDP. The foreign activities of UBS and CS aren't really making such a large impact on the domestic economy. They've transferred these businesses to London, NY, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Caymans already. They've not been paying any taxes for 5 years, too. The federal budget still generated surpluses each year.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:23 | 3274872 walküre
walküre's picture

sure, whatever. you're the greatest.

why the fuck did the Swiss NOT get invaded by Hitler? you made concessions and deals with the "devil"

same as it ever was

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:29 | 3274901 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Why do you have to resort to name calling? I just tried to offer you information that might help you understand the current economic situation of Switzerland.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 19:24 | 3275679 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture


do not try to change the fixed opinions of the peanut gallery here....they do not respond to new input

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:38 | 3274958 css1971
css1971's picture

ITYM horse lasagne.


Nestle is Swiss.


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:23 | 3274663 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Time to run screaming for the exits.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:28 | 3274684 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



...find a safehouse, lay low for a while...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:32 | 3274702 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:23 | 3274665 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Bad day for real estate in the Hamptons.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | 3274672 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Note to self..., days like this are why you don't trade fucking FX!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:38 | 3274959 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Indeed. "keep those stops tight" folks. And if you still can't help yourself...make sure it's with people you know...and trust.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | 3274670 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Make your own luck. Get out of paper.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:30 | 3274690 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

this is not the exit from paper. Just imagine when the "digital" paper game unwinds. All of the digital fiat in the world is vapor locked in a nano second....without warning.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 19:27 | 3275693 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

do the markets still require a nanosecond for anything? waiting that long is like so August of 2012....the new super cooled computers are limited only by the speed of light and that damned 1000 fooot cable length minimum...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | 3274671 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

serenity now, insanity later

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | 3274678 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Looking at the charts, it's more like instanity now, suicide later.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:38 | 3274718 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Charts are Irreal Sir,

The reality people has no money in Spain and Portugal....IBEX has to be close to 3.500 points and its quoting roughly 8´000 -8,200


NO REAL buyers in Spanish Equities since 2010

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:27 | 3274677 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

All I can say is "Sham-wow!"

Penny-stock "action" now evident in all asset classes.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:34 | 3274920 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Joke's on you.  Fuckup-bernanke and his printer of fraud-ill-repute assure you pay for all volatility.

Pucker up buttercup.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:27 | 3274682 mjorden
mjorden's picture

Just a crack in the foundation.  I wonder if they put in rebar during initial construction.  We will soon find out!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:29 | 3274689 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Adult version of "Hot Potato" and "Musical chairs" wrapped together.

That's going to leave a mark

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:30 | 3274692 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Note to BernanQE:  It didn't have to be this way.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3274697 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Bet HE doesn't end up in a government issued plastic coffin.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:30 | 3274694 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

wait a few minutes, benny fix.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3274696 Conman
Conman's picture

Hilarious - what made this all happen? Democracy! lol , people voting for who they wanted to vote for.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:15 | 3274839 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I don't know about you guys, but I voted for an Elector and I can only judge / hope that he / she represents me / my interests well in deciding our next president.

To remind, the popular vote is precisely that, a popularity contest.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:45 | 3274990 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Exactly, you are voting for the best Reality TV. Goldmann says your stupid and we should take care of them (or translation: "rape them)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:15 | 3275136 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Idiot voters WISH it was a popularity contest. That way, they might actually get the chance for once to vote for a popular candidate.

As it stands, voting is nothing but a method of soothing both the apathetic and informed voters from their depression/anger issues.

Anyone who votes has the perspective of an innocent child (with innocence replaced by Hopium-fueled ignorance).

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:32 | 3274701 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The Masters of the Universe hate democracy. Who are these stupid people?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:33 | 3274706 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

The only exit for EuroPIIGS is...


Devaluation....Creating EURO " A" and Euro "B"...

"Iceland has been the test"


He have to devaluate the freaking Euro, cos the massive leverage taken 


European banks are toast&fried.


End of the game


Its impossible to hold this farce more, people dont have a penny in Spain. Unemployment 26.5% and tranch 16-25 over 56%.

DEBT HAIRCUTS coming YES OR YES in sovereign debt

Spain downgraded to Junk



Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:34 | 3274708 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture



Buy the fucking diapers!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:08 | 3274813 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture



Buy the fucking diapers!"



Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:34 | 3274709 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

as long as the green shoots keep on coming there isn't a damned thing to worry like it is 1999...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:38 | 3274720 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everything will be FINE. After a few drinks and a drag or two from the hopium pipe, fears will be relieved and they can return to their dream world of infinite money.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:16 | 3275144 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dunno... my pipe is about empty. Yours?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:52 | 3274729 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Ummm...anybody else see DXY just completed a perfect H&S pattern (late '11 til now) w/ a big wick on right shoulder and now fading???

Guess a pullback and tank here of DXY would cnfm dollar will be sprayed everwhere to put out every fire???  IF correct, every PM holders wet dream bout to go 3D.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:53 | 3275020 The Juice
The Juice's picture

No, I think you were the only one who noticed.


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:18 | 3275154 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

WTF does any of that have to do with the price of GS/JPM Comex paper? That shit doesn't correlate to ANYTHING.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:50 | 3274745 Itch
Itch's picture

EURJPY = 160 pip death spiral in under 6 minutes, and the rest. He he he, if you go down to the woods today ...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:54 | 3274757 Orly
Orly's picture

What's in the woods, Itch?

The absurd resilience in AUDUSD has me wondering if it doesn't rocket to unbelievable levels.  Do you see that?


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:14 | 3274836 Itch
Itch's picture

Im watching it, its holding, but if risk comes off in a big way it will take a beating along with everything else. Its flirting with that big hairy trend line from 2008, it would take a brave sort to assume it could stand up to a broad collapse in risk. And thats starting to look like the case here; we had the obligatory PM sell offs along with just everything else, and now the darling of that latest bout of exuberance EUR/JPY is very much in the crosshairs. Just waiting for equities to take a serious dump for the final piece of the jigsaw. This time its scary though, this time the tide goes out and EVERYONE has no pants on...cover your eyes.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:53 | 3275019 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Bear shit?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:51 | 3274749 Orly
Orly's picture

Is AUDUSD going to 1.20???

Holy smokes.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:57 | 3274772 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Hope you're wearing your seat belt Orly.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:06 | 3274803 Orly
Orly's picture

Yepperz.  Been surfing it for 24 hours using USDCHF as an inverse proxy.

Look at the AUDUSD for me.  I must be seeing things.

The Weekly has a wedge pattern but for the past ten months, the pair has only traded in the upper half of the wedge.

Gold got smacked down to 1500, copper took a five percent hit last week but the Aussie is still in the upper half of the wedge.  On this kind of Euro weakness, you would expect some kind of reaction out of it be we get basically bupkes.

I think it is going to be the "reserve" reserve currency for a while until all this "Western" stuff gets situated.  It might ramp to 1.20, which is the 168% Fibo off the highest range.

Please tell me I'm nuts but I'm scaling long into this thing.


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:59 | 3274780 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Just the Dollar getting hosed.  Was 60 pips up on the Aud earlier, bit of a whipsaw there.


GBP is a laugh though, half covered the gap down at start of week already.  Might go fill up the car quickly :)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:53 | 3274753 which way weste...
which way western man's picture

credit suisse seems to be having some "issues"

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:53 | 3274755 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

This is what happens when you give fucking morons the vote.

I am fucking spitting!!

Fritz Six-Pack

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:58 | 3274775 Orly
Orly's picture

A few weeks ago, I misunderestimated the speed with which the algos can ramp something up or down.  I was furious, too.  That time it was on the Euro and Draghi making no change in EZ interest rates.  Then he gave a press conference and the bots didn't like the colour of his tie.


But now that I have my head screwed on straight, I feel much better.


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:02 | 3274793 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Been busted by that.  Not as bad as when I started moving more into FX. sitting there at 2AM, eyes half closed when the BoJ suddenly intervened.  Filled my pants on that one.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:07 | 3274808 Orly
Orly's picture

Eight hours of boredom filled with two minutes of sheer terror.


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:27 | 3274891 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Getting real.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:58 | 3274777 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

It's been a while since we've had this much fun!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:00 | 3274783 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

So, it looks as though a massive EUR.JPY long was just liquidated and Gold short covering, no? Too obvious....

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:06 | 3274804 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Free Falling....

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:21 | 3274865 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Small beginnings!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:24 | 3274876 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture



Peeps don't want to pay taxes to support bankers ... even if it's the patriotic thing to do. Sieg Heil, Bitchez!


Most has to do with vanished Japanese trade surplus, next most has to do with 24% showing for anti-euro activist Beppe Grillo's 5-Star movement in Italy.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:29 | 3274902 Orly
Orly's picture

Dollar/yen starting to move to the downside...

Is it all over for the Japanese shorts?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:43 | 3274982 Orly
Orly's picture

You know it's insane when you can swing trade a one-minute chart!


Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:31 | 3274914 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Falling markets are betting against Benny's law of inverse gravity. 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:55 | 3275026 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

S&P 1490.  Monti about to give presser.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:16 | 3275148 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Thanks to all of the Ron Paul voters, we have recovery summer 4 coming right around the corner!




No need to worry though, Obama is firmly in charge, and he'll just need a few more terms to fix all of the problems the Republicans left him.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:17 | 3275149 Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

We warned you.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:30 | 3275210 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

come on is the euro that bad you'd want to buy Yen ??? i mean this shit is f***ing worhtless !!!!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 18:57 | 3275593 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

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