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This Is What A Disorderly FXit Looks Like

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The biggest market in the world - foreign exchange - is having some issues here. Wherever you look, trends are snapping hard and levels are gapping. EURUSD is down 1% from Friday back below 1.31 (a 240 pip swing from pre-Italy levels); EURJPY has collapsed to one-month lows; EURCHF is heading the wrong way for the SNB; and carry trades are lifting in rip your face off mode. "That escalated quickly..."

EURJPY collapsed...

 

and wherever you look things are gapping...

 

And overall against the USD - it is getting a little jumpy...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:22 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Here it comes.  Godspeed all.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

FX pairs are bunga jumping

Should have been anticipated !

Will be wild at many moments as the euro-zone split unfolds

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:35 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Bunga-bunga appears to have briefly replaced Ben Bernanke as the most influential man in the world.  Who would've thunk it?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

So this is what they do at those G20 meetings

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:55 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Isn't CHF pegged to EUR these days?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

I think it's more like pegged by the euro, if you know what I mean...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Homo Erectus
Homo Erectus's picture

No, the Swiss central bank had thrown the kitchen sink to try establish a floor on EURCHF at 1.20 and was happy to see the EUR recover in recent months...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Bring it!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment dbTX
dbTX's picture

The new normal.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:22 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

You crazy FX fools. You're gonna meet my friend pain!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Misery loves company.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

EUR/CHF is going back to 1.20 within weeks.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

And then EUR USD back to 1.60 as the southern countries leave the euro

CHF peg will be a lot more comfortable then

Would not be surprised if Switzerland even joins the Germanic euro once the Mediterranean countries, including France, have departed

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:35 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

We'll not join the Euro, even an adjusted version. There would be a popular referendum to stop that. Anything related to the EU or just Germany would be voted down.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Switzerland is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Without the ability to hoard American and German "winnings", the Swiss will have to sell lots and lots of cheese or chocolate on the international market. The biggest Swiss real estate market is in the ghettos of Eastern Europe. Good luck with that!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Truth. The Swiss folded like a cheap suit when the State Dept threats made UBS roll over and give up secrecy. Next is State Dept threats if they don't let Monsanto do what they want. That worked in many other countries.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

We have our own Monsanto - Syngenta.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:13 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

If one reads history, one may believe the Swiss to be the puppet masters here.

They might have peculiar predilictions in the sexual arena but they know how to wind a clock, know what I mean?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:26 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Yup +1

Rothschilds weren't Swiss but the Swiss sure seemed to like the Jews and their gold. No matter who delivered it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:00 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Specially the gold...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:10 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The domestic financial sector makes up about 10% of GDP. The foreign activities of UBS and CS aren't really making such a large impact on the domestic economy. They've transferred these businesses to London, NY, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Caymans already. They've not been paying any taxes for 5 years, too. The federal budget still generated surpluses each year.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

sure, whatever. you're the greatest.

why the fuck did the Swiss NOT get invaded by Hitler? you made concessions and deals with the "devil"

same as it ever was

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Why do you have to resort to name calling? I just tried to offer you information that might help you understand the current economic situation of Switzerland.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 19:24 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

swissaustrian

do not try to change the fixed opinions of the peanut gallery here....they do not respond to new input

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

ITYM horse lasagne.

 

Nestle is Swiss.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Time to run screaming for the exits.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:28 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...find a safehouse, lay low for a while...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:32 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Panic?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Bad day for real estate in the Hamptons.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Note to self..., days like this are why you don't trade fucking FX!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Indeed. "keep those stops tight" folks. And if you still can't help yourself...make sure it's with people you know...and trust.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

Make your own luck. Get out of paper.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:30 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

this is not the exit from paper. Just imagine when the "digital" paper game unwinds. All of the digital fiat in the world is vapor locked in a nano second....without warning.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

do the markets still require a nanosecond for anything? waiting that long is like so August of 2012....the new super cooled computers are limited only by the speed of light and that damned 1000 fooot cable length minimum...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

serenity now, insanity later

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Looking at the charts, it's more like instanity now, suicide later.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:38 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Charts are Irreal Sir,

The reality people has no money in Spain and Portugal....IBEX has to be close to 3.500 points and its quoting roughly 8´000 -8,200

 

NO REAL buyers in Spanish Equities since 2010

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

All I can say is "Sham-wow!"

Penny-stock "action" now evident in all asset classes.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Joke's on you.  Fuckup-bernanke and his printer of fraud-ill-repute assure you pay for all volatility.

Pucker up buttercup.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:27 | Link to Comment mjorden
mjorden's picture

Just a crack in the foundation.  I wonder if they put in rebar during initial construction.  We will soon find out!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:29 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Adult version of "Hot Potato" and "Musical chairs" wrapped together.

That's going to leave a mark

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Note to BernanQE:  It didn't have to be this way.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Bet HE doesn't end up in a government issued plastic coffin.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:30 | Link to Comment emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

wait a few minutes, benny fix.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Hilarious - what made this all happen? Democracy! lol , people voting for who they wanted to vote for.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I don't know about you guys, but I voted for an Elector and I can only judge / hope that he / she represents me / my interests well in deciding our next president.

To remind, the popular vote is precisely that, a popularity contest.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Exactly, you are voting for the best show...like Reality TV. Goldmann says your stupid and we should take care of them (or translation: "rape them)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Idiot voters WISH it was a popularity contest. That way, they might actually get the chance for once to vote for a popular candidate.

As it stands, voting is nothing but a method of soothing both the apathetic and informed voters from their depression/anger issues.

Anyone who votes has the perspective of an innocent child (with innocence replaced by Hopium-fueled ignorance).

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:32 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The Masters of the Universe hate democracy. Who are these stupid people?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:33 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

The only exit for EuroPIIGS is...

 

Devaluation....Creating EURO " A" and Euro "B"...

"Iceland has been the test"

 

He have to devaluate the freaking Euro, cos the massive leverage taken 

 

European banks are toast&fried.

 

End of the game

 

Its impossible to hold this farce more, people dont have a penny in Spain. Unemployment 26.5% and tranch 16-25 over 56%.

DEBT HAIRCUTS coming YES OR YES in sovereign debt

Spain downgraded to Junk

 

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:34 | Link to Comment TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

BTFD!

 

Buy the fucking diapers!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

"BTFD!

 

Buy the fucking diapers!"

 

Depends...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:34 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

as long as the green shoots keep on coming there isn't a damned thing to worry about...party like it is 1999...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everything will be FINE. After a few drinks and a drag or two from the hopium pipe, fears will be relieved and they can return to their dream world of infinite money.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dunno... my pipe is about empty. Yours?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Ummm...anybody else see DXY just completed a perfect H&S pattern (late '11 til now) w/ a big wick on right shoulder and now fading???

Guess a pullback and tank here of DXY would cnfm dollar will be sprayed everwhere to put out every fire???  IF correct, every PM holders wet dream bout to go 3D.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:53 | Link to Comment The Juice
The Juice's picture

No, I think you were the only one who noticed.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

WTF does any of that have to do with the price of GS/JPM Comex paper? That shit doesn't correlate to ANYTHING.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

EURJPY = 160 pip death spiral in under 6 minutes, and the rest. He he he, if you go down to the woods today ...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

What's in the woods, Itch?

The absurd resilience in AUDUSD has me wondering if it doesn't rocket to unbelievable levels.  Do you see that?

:0

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

Im watching it, its holding, but if risk comes off in a big way it will take a beating along with everything else. Its flirting with that big hairy trend line from 2008, it would take a brave sort to assume it could stand up to a broad collapse in risk. And thats starting to look like the case here; we had the obligatory PM sell offs along with just everything else, and now the darling of that latest bout of exuberance EUR/JPY is very much in the crosshairs. Just waiting for equities to take a serious dump for the final piece of the jigsaw. This time its scary though, this time the tide goes out and EVERYONE has no pants on...cover your eyes.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:53 | Link to Comment MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Bear shit?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Is AUDUSD going to 1.20???

Holy smokes.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:57 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Hope you're wearing your seat belt Orly.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Yepperz.  Been surfing it for 24 hours using USDCHF as an inverse proxy.

Look at the AUDUSD for me.  I must be seeing things.

The Weekly has a wedge pattern but for the past ten months, the pair has only traded in the upper half of the wedge.

Gold got smacked down to 1500, copper took a five percent hit last week but the Aussie is still in the upper half of the wedge.  On this kind of Euro weakness, you would expect some kind of reaction out of it be we get basically bupkes.

I think it is going to be the "reserve" reserve currency for a while until all this "Western" stuff gets situated.  It might ramp to 1.20, which is the 168% Fibo off the highest range.

Please tell me I'm nuts but I'm scaling long into this thing.

:D

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:59 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Just the Dollar getting hosed.  Was 60 pips up on the Aud earlier, bit of a whipsaw there.

 

GBP is a laugh though, half covered the gap down at start of week already.  Might go fill up the car quickly :)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment which way weste...
which way western man's picture

credit suisse seems to be having some "issues"

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

This is what happens when you give fucking morons the vote.

I am fucking spitting!!

Regards,
Fritz Six-Pack

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

A few weeks ago, I misunderestimated the speed with which the algos can ramp something up or down.  I was furious, too.  That time it was on the Euro and Draghi making no change in EZ interest rates.  Then he gave a press conference and the bots didn't like the colour of his tie.

Whiplash!

But now that I have my head screwed on straight, I feel much better.

:D

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Been busted by that.  Not as bad as when I started moving more into FX. sitting there at 2AM, eyes half closed when the BoJ suddenly intervened.  Filled my pants on that one.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Eight hours of boredom filled with two minutes of sheer terror.

:D

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Getting real.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

It's been a while since we've had this much fun!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

So, it looks as though a massive EUR.JPY long was just liquidated and Gold short covering, no? Too obvious....

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Free Falling....

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Small beginnings!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:24 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

Peeps don't want to pay taxes to support bankers ... even if it's the patriotic thing to do. Sieg Heil, Bitchez!

 

Most has to do with vanished Japanese trade surplus, next most has to do with 24% showing for anti-euro activist Beppe Grillo's 5-Star movement in Italy.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/25/italian-election-results-liv...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Dollar/yen starting to move to the downside...

Is it all over for the Japanese shorts?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

You know it's insane when you can swing trade a one-minute chart!

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Falling markets are betting against Benny's law of inverse gravity. 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 16:55 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

S&P 1490.  Monti about to give presser.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Thanks to all of the Ron Paul voters, we have recovery summer 4 coming right around the corner!

 

 

 

No need to worry though, Obama is firmly in charge, and he'll just need a few more terms to fix all of the problems the Republicans left him.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

We warned you.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

come on is the euro that bad you'd want to buy Yen ??? i mean this shit is f***ing worhtless !!!!!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 18:57 | Link to Comment DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

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