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February's Strange Divergence In Precious Metals
February has been an odd month for precious metals to say the least. On-again, off-again fears of Bernanke removing the punchbowl (and endless sell-side strategists discussing Great Rotations and the end of the gold cycle) have led to prices for gold and silver sliding notably. However, while all this price deterioration has been going on, demand for physical gold and silver has surged - entirely disconnecting from January's apparent demand-to-price correlation - and Silver set to break all-time record demand highs for a February. We know who was buying in January, as Reuters reports Russia and Turkey were significantly adding to their bullion reserves; and while the divergence between demand and price coincided with Chinese New Year - leaving a large marginal buying nation on the sidelines - we suspect the drop is more to do with hedge fund reflexive selling - now caught offside. It seems at least one smart player was using lower prices to build their stack; manipulation or no manipulation.
Cumulative demand for Gold vs Spot price... (corrected)
Cumulative demand for Silver vs Spot price (corrected)
and this month looks set to see the biggest demand for silver (for a Feb) ever...
Source: Bloomberg and US Mint
(H/t Alex Gloy)
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In other precious metals divergence news, according to a Cincinnati 5/3rd branch manager, a CIA agent confiscated 2 dozen gold krugerrands stored in a safety deposit box a Cincy man inherited from his grandfather, but left all fiat notes in the box.
Anecdotal account, but wouldn't be surprised that stealth federal gold confiscation has already begun
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-confiscation-begins-report-of-2-dozen-...
Ok they took the Gold and left the Fiat.
So it was either an Asian, a Russian, an Indian, or a Zerohedger.
Come on people..fess up.
Corporations create backwardation... the CEO's and politicians picking up the physical.
The warped minds at the COMEX think lower prices = less demand. Absolute brilliance..... keep it up, please.
LOL - He should have just bought generic gold bars. He would have lost less.
Speaking of genric gold bars. Anybody heard of OPM?
On this page: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
I keep thinking "Other People's Money" and can't help but think it is a new business founded by Corzine.
The papers futures markets need to be gutted and overhauled. The tail is officially wagging the dog.
You should always keep gold-plated tungsten bars in the places likely to be searched by federal governement agents.
This is what the endgame looks like. There is now lawlessness on every conceivable level, the investing public is about to get royally screwed, those that planned ahead and stashed their gold, are getting it stolen by the government, those that invested in futures are getting their life savings stolen by the banks, only physical gold and silver in your own possession will survive what is coming.
To say the very least, it won't be much longer, charts like that don't lie. There is no possible way to sustain this price.
My biggest fear, is that they are going to collapse the entire system long before they release the metals.
There will be nowhere to run, and nowhere to hide. That appears to be the plan.
Russia was buying from itself (as usual).
Gold demand was down yoy 2012-2011 by 4%.
HEYHEYHEYHEY, every once in a while I come back and drop some knowledge:
SEE HOW THAT SHIT SAYS US MINT?
If you are gonna own gold and silver, its best to do it under another name, or purchase from the general public / or a regular name brand. Why you would want to own us mint gold and silver? IDK, that certainly seems more trackable...
Now anyone with half a fucking brain, understands that what makes gold and silver money, is that they are gold and silver. not that they have text written on them. The text helps to assure their validity.
So, their being from the US mint DOES NOT ADD VALUE, unless you have a flood of fucking morons who will pay top dollar for us mint g&s. So while all the idiots were buying expensive us mint g&s, all the smart people were either already long or long a cheap regular brand.
Now
but to be honest, there's a reason i stopped posting on zh, and its b/c it became overrun with idiots.
the pile of dog shit controls the dog by remote control
@ AllThatGlitters
OPM = Ohio Precious Metals
OPM had an ad in the recent debut issue of American Hard Assets. They apparently are (one of?) America's only COMEX good delivery suppliers. Here is their website:
opmmetals.com
Tulving sells their 1 kg gold bars.
Cool, thanks DoChen
Otherwise, They Would Just Name Themselves PAPERMAN Sacks ...
SackMan Gold Wants Your GOLD!
We Hear All The Bullshit, Buy Sell, Butt They WANT Your GOLD, Period.
Divergence in precious metals = this scenario here: [2nd sentence of 1st paragraph]...
~~~
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-26/if-you-ask-right-questions-you-might-find-right-answers#comment-3277202
Ok they took the Gold and left the Fiat.
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli.
Kinda like they leave the guns but take the bullets.
rc
http://www.bigbendbikersforfreedom.com/
There are a lot of things wrong with that story.
Possibly the story teller's version of 'I lost all my Gold in a boating accident'?
Funny Simon black says keep it in a safety deposit box in a foreign country. So when you wake up in a cold sweat and think it's gone (every week) you have to jump a flight and take a week off work to check.
Folks, for the last time, it is a "safe deposit box", NOT a "safety deposit box"! It is a box for making safe deposits, not a box for depositing safety! (Unless somebody has figured out how to store safety in a box.)
That's as bad as hearing people talking about "PIN numbers" and "ATM machines" and "I could care less".
Irregardless, we should literally touch basis and flush this list of annoying misuses out.
it is anything but a safe or safety deposit box so i don't exactly give a shit about getting it right.
Irregardless?
Yes, its all irregardless. The point is mute. And for all intensive purposes one should use more tack when addressing towards another poster. Its the principle of there issues which effect the affects to. But their all a climatic allusion too illicite a response from a reader. Your welcome than.
Owwww... make it stop....
Bravo sir, bravo.
you sure know how to loose your reeders
Their all lost anyways.
They've all gone rouge.
Your write.
Theirs always a first time.
You have a nother thing coming.
Its not quiet what won wood think of as an example, for instantaneous, Michelangelo painting the Sixteenth Chapel, or Magellan circumventing the globe. Of coarse, extra century perception is, in today's world, the prodigal wolf in cheap clothing.
vulpis is the prodigal wolf in cheap emperor's clothing!
Gentlemen, well done.
A dam fine discourse regarding our mother's tongue. Funny enough, none in our family had they're mouthes washed out with soap for fowl language.
http://www.explosm.net/comics/2712/
Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana!
Oh, man - after THAT blast I need to get myself orientated!!
As to Safe vs. Safety, I believe the point is mute.
Hmm, so it is! :>D
Irregardless is not a word
What? Yes it. I got taught it at University. And don't you not know that? Do a search.
Tell that to the relatives of Scotia Mocatta. And BTW.... you're richer than you think, you know. Go buy something.
I don't need your stinking permission to buy stuff I don't need with money I don't have. :)
lol, COMEX instituting price controls, now Scotiamocatta imposing quantity controls. From the bottom of this page:
* Please note that there is a C$9500.00 purchase limit per 24 hour period (this limit is subject to change based on market volatility).
'However, there is no shortage, and we expect prices to be significantly lower this year, so really, why even bother buying...'
That is suspiciously short of the $10K reporting requirement. Must be a tangential message there.
You should investigate the exchange rate.
Shouldn't it be called a "safe area box" ? A safe deposit box sounds to me as a place to store safes.
No matter what they call it, including the word 'safe' or any derivative thereof is extremely misleading. I mean, they're in BANKS for fuck sake, I can't think of a LESS safe place to leave valuables.
Hmm, do canoes do it for ya? :>D
Thanks, and while your are at it: UFO's
"I saw a UFO" - no you didn't, you identified the opject - it was not an un-identified flying opject aka UFO
WHAT? Do you mean it's iimpossible to see a UFO? Or do you just say, "I saw an FO and I think it's not identified yet?"
Am assuming the box was in a bank meaning it wasn't a safe anything. It was just a box.
Simon Black says that you can always have your local CIA contacts muscle into the local bank manager's "hacienda" and terrorize his family until he confirms the deposit status, I mean, if you really need to check.
Besides that, there are quantum viewing devices (green, of course) that allow you to peer through the earth's crust on a refractory basis and penetrate bank vaults to approx. 1cm accuracy, assuming you've implanted a neutron GPS transmitter chip in your PM of choice.
We can't all be rising stars at West Point
Safe deposit boxes simply allow the PTB to confiscate more wealth during a bank holiday, thanks Simon.
They are to physical what bonds are to paper
Centralization of confiscation bitchez...
yeah,
like, ...it was fabricated; but they got suckers go to their website. coohl.
These are not the suckers you're looking for. Move along.
why would a CIA agent give a shit about 12 Krugs.?
Because maybe all them gold bars ain't worth shit? Well, more than the price of tungsten anyway.
Have the people who make this crap up ever worked in a bank? You know, the corner, retail branch kind of a bank? You cannot touch a safe deposit box without a key or a warrant.
The "CIA" is not going to walk into a domestic bank and try to take stuff out of a box unless they have a key or a warrant. And the CIA ain't gonna get a domestic warrant.
Branch managers are like rabid dogs about this crap.
I call bullshit.
I call Bullsit too.
Because we all know that the CIA always plays by the rules and even if they didn't Bank Managers would give their lives to save the integrity of their banks.
And besides, I just like to call Bullshit. Often times for no reason.
"It seems at least one smart player was using lower prices to build their stack; manipulation or no manipulation." Thank you, glad someone noticed me!
Looks like everyone figured out that if you can't touch it, it doesn't exist.
I farted on my gold. Do you still want it Mr. CIA?
Questions to the crew, on the topic of farting up your gold:
-how much of the gold supply could be irradiated somehow,
-is that a valid identifier / marker of say a certain mass of gold that may carry in spite of various refining tricks to eliminate chemical signatures, and if so,
-what are the odds that my little RCM ducat is irradiating my frozen peas as we speak?
"Hot" gold, that is, irradiated by neutrons to another isotope (which doesn't decay back into gold) only has a few day half life. You'd have to get it *damn* hot to make a marker that would last for years.
And, getting it that hot would give you other (safe handling) problems for awhile after you did it.
I know, because I really am a fusion researcher, and we use gold to integrate our neutron production for measurement. At our levels, no significant gold is lost, and once it cools back off - you can use it again.
So, DCFusor, what IS the state of fusion research nowadays? What kind of fusion research are you involved in? And can you comment on this "focus fusion" that I remember reading about on the internet that was supposed to herald a radically new, safe, cheap, efficient and small-scale means of power production?
you can't get there from here
paper squeeze coming round the corner.. a rally all day all night kind of affair...
Soros buying now
If Soros is buying physical gold, I would very much appreciate a link, thank you.
was saying sarcastically. It seems whenever gold makes a big move or sustained move, up or down, the press always seem to blame Soros. It's never fundamental.
lol i never noticed it but now that you mention it, it seems so obvious, thanks!
the sell off in gold was a golden gift.....folks should have been buying with both hands and both feet...just like the chinese.
Damn right. As soon as I saw the price getting pummeled I reserved a rental box-truck to back up to the coin shop.
BTFD
If this trend continues (physical demand, more scarcity, yet lower paper prices), then the Minsky Moment may be near us soon. I cannot understand why only 1% (max 3%) of people own physical gold. Physical gold is one of the few safe harbors in these difficult times, which IMO are only going to get worse.
Paper gold crashing yet physical demand going up. Wait until the SELLERS of physical decline to sell at all.
$55,000...
Agree, physical is the true safe harbor. But in reality, it is not very mobile, not so safe and easy to store, not very convenient, e.g. time and expense to ship....so it is more about the practicality of owning physical that gets in the way
Oil and uranium are much easier to store.
So are Cadillac Escalades.
edit: sorry, I thought you said "easier to stuff".
Hide your " oil" in your cars engine
The bastards will never think to look for it there...
Plus you can't eat gold, and you can fondle it all you like, but it won't respond.
Can you eat dollars idiot? Also, you can sell gold/silver as easily as equities. And you don't have to wait for the check. CASH in hand. Its not too late to jump on the train .......
GOLD bitchez.....
/sarc
It's ok. I think most of us got it.
Your money used to be redeemable in Silver. Not too bulky.
http://www.fastcoin.com/images/one-hundred-silver-certificates-41707.jpg
I know you're bein sarcastic, but you need to add <sarc> @ the end of your post so you don't get throttled. And by the way, I can stuff 50 Pamp Suisse 1 ouncers (approx. $100,000) in my pockets with ease and am very fucking mobile. AND, my nice .45ACP Glock model 36 keeps it nice and safe. Any other questions Baloney?
Plus it sinks if you have a boating accident. At least paper has a chance of floating....
I cannot understand why only 1% (max 3%) of people own physical gold.
Could you repeat that? I was listening to Snooki talk about her new baby.
Something about Gold's Gym and being physical?
Never mind...Ellen is coming on.
Gold?
Is that like "Here Comes Honey BooBoo" and "My Redneck Vacation" and "Searching for Bigfoot" being TV gold?
Hey, if it's not good enough for Oprah and Dr. Oz to endorse on the air, then it's not good enough for me.
+1. It's not like Tom Cruise is jumping on Oprah's couch over gold.
Besides that, I keep all my money secure in the bank --- I mean, it's not like they aren't the safest place for it, and aren't looking out for me. Never trust yourself when you can trust somebody else, especially a large Wall Street corporation. Just like the government, they always know what's best.
Yes, same here. And I store my booze with the drunk who lives over the vent up the street (because who knows better about how to look after booze) and my dope with the dealer across town (for the same reason). ALWAYS trust the professionals
How lucky we are to live in the best of all possible worlds!
Heard one o' them thar financial wizard guys who "manages" lots of OPM that one shouldn't invest (sic) in gold because its volatility is based on emotion. Seems to me that he made the exact case FOR owning the stuff. Where is the sanity?
I cannot understand why only 1% (max 3%) of people own physical gold.
Well, some talking head on CNBC the other day explained it. His point is that gold is not backed by anything. You know, unlike fiat money which *head explodes*
heres a news report.. from 2011 gold is not backed by anything
cute newscaster though.
.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLL2r3hXmjA
Good thing I bought both Gold and Silver on the dip.
Fuck the Central Banks and Bankers.
That is why I bought.
I voted!
p.s. - Tyler(s) - I have noticed an absolute media blitzkrieg by Allianz trying to bring in retirement money crowd, something fishy there, reminds me of the "Lind/Walldock" commercials on CNBC after MF Global bought them and shortly before Corzine vaporized people's money.
Someone mentioned "Generali is broke" in a comment the other day, without providing a link or further info. Allianz owns Generali (and Pimco, btw), they are a HUGE company and should they be in trouble it would create a major hick-up in global financial markets, similar to AIG.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-25/hung-parliament-btp-sell-jpm-sa...
One out of four Europeans has some kind of insurance at Generali.
So one in four of Europeans do own gold, eh?
Nice one. Should own gold...
Actually, when I was digging around looking for figures about who owns how much gold, I found out that Germans privately own about as much gold as the German gov't owns (in the neighborhood of 7 or 8000 tons) - and as far as I know, they don't store it in New York, so no repatriation issues there. This 'why would I want to own gold' attitude seems to be unique to North America.
"Captain, we have an anomaly." -Commander GATA, USS Enterprise.
Bonds are outperforming gold in February but everybody here thinks only goldbugz r smart.
How many months in your life or that of your children? Go right ahead and hold all the paper promises you like.
That's brilliant...judge performance by one month's price action. Stocks outperformed bonds in the last few nano seconds...let's chase them.
Bonds are outperforming gold in February but everybody here thinks only goldbugz r smart.
*************
Good point buzz-bonds and gold seem to mirror each other-look at the yield drop in 2001 and gold break out of a bear market at the exact same time and both trend lines (inverse) are still in play-
Both reflecting extreme credit risk--has little to do with the dollar-
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WTP30A28
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2012/02/Gold-LT1.png
Similar divergences are occuring all over the place. Seems that any physical asset (especially revenue generating) of real value is getting bid hard.
February has been an extremely good month for me. I welcome the opportunity to exchange my fiat for precious metals at a lower price.
"Mr. Bernanke can you please blah blah blah....."
Bernak: "I'm printing money bitchez."
"Mr. Chairman, regarding the exit strategy can you rabble rabble rabble"
Bernak: "You dumb fcks I said I am printing money...bitchez..."
"Chairman Bernanke can you tell us barf barf barf....."
Bernak: "Gdammit I said I am printing money!!!??? Forever!!!!....Bitchez????
It looks like we had capitulation in the gold market on February 20th. The bottom is in! Time to start buying.
any rec on where to buy physical PMs? i see the banners on all these sites, but simple DD on each shows all sorts of ripoff report and BBB issues. dont know where to turn....and dont want my broker to do it for me and hold in their "vault"....
is the PM IRA worth it if i'm using someone else's - albeit indy - vault?
i'm racing to get up to speed...thanks for any genuine input.
All I have to say is that if you can't touch it you don't own it. Gold in a "vault" can be vaporized just as easily as futures contracts at an exchange.
Doc you seen whiteshadowmovement? That was an interesting visit. I am surprises at how fast he disappeared. I am starting to wonder if he was going for a doctorate in behavioral finance or something and this was material for his thesis of studying gold bugs or something....
No I haven't seen him. I thought it was odd he disappeared too. I have been very busy lately and haven't been on the Hedge much so I figured I was just not seeing him post.
I just looked for his comments and go "access denied".
weird.
Yeah I did the same thing. I usually only get that on people's accounts like Tyler's.
a gubamint troll seeking out the subversives, putting their names on a list along with incriminating comments, no doubt
I don't doubt anything anymore.
That happened when there's a rare "hard" ban on the person. A handful of others have had that happen.
Seek. What's a "hard" ban?
Like ejected and erased from memory?
localsavage put it best in his comment above - "if you can't touch it, it doesn't exist."
I would go compare the price over spot of the PM dealers in your area and go make a cash transaction. That way you have metal in hand and no paper trail.
Just don't take your gold on any boating trips. You may lose it.
Gainesville Coin in Lutz, FL (a suburb of Tampa basically) has never caused me any grief. I place my order on their website and pay with a credit card. I still can't believe I can buy physical pm's with a "promise" to pay my card issuer someday. I live close enough to pick up the goods in person. No problems so far and their prices and selection are at least as good as any I have seen.
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/
I have no affiliation with these guys - just a satisfied customer.
Not so sure I would use a credit card in the US for gold purchases.
The Govt. can easily get the dealers merchant account records.
All being recorded on NSA computers for future confiscation possibly.
If I had any PM's ,I would have purchased them from a foreign dealer with
a US subsid.Pay them in their home country from a third country ,and they are
delivered here by the subsid. without paperwork.Thats me though, most here don't
have offshore accounts,so cash at a coinshop is best,but do your homework on the dealer.
find a local coin dealer...thats what i do in my area.. i've bought from gainesville, westminster mint , provident metals.with no problems
my local coin dealer is usually the same price or better and no delivery charges
i go in and trade my fiat dollars for PM's
no tax, no register wrung up and no paper trail receipts
Same experience. My guy buys silver for 85% of spot and sells for spot.
Happy to trade Fiat for real money.
https://comparesilverprices.com/
http://comparegoldprices.com/
They don't list dealers that have minimum purchases, but you can get an idea of who has the best prices on what and check against other unlisted dealers.
Texas Precious Metals is owned by a real metals company that make real metal shit like barbed wire. How weird is that?
Fast and free shipping.
Paper driven prices. Paper has to be at least 100:1 behind real bullion.
Au & Ag, bitchez!
This is why GLD's inventory is being drained.
GLD lost yesterday (Feb 25) 7.82 tonnes of gold. Thus, inventories have been declining for 5 days in a row. All in all, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1272.85 tonnes, that is 50.12 tonnes or 3.78%.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, declining inventories for GLD are bullish for gold as it is explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/02/dow-theory-update-for-feb-21-...
with an update here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/02/dow-theory-update-for-feb-25-...
Also, IIRC, if you check the bylaws of GLD, large (i.e VERY large) position holders are allowed to close their position out in physical bullion.
If you have a shit-ton of dollars that you want to convert to physical, and don't trust the futures market, GLD is your huckleberry.
Paper gold price is going to zero.
That is about the right value for paper gold.
This last month has been awesome for Gold and Silver.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/02/26/goldsilver-feb-2013/
StAcK It Up BiTcHeZ!
Part of the grand plan...once China and Russia have sucked up most of the PMs, Goldman will declare that they are not "precious" any more and that the world will start to value salt, nutmeg and clamshells again...New Normal, things not going your way, change the rules of the game.
To be fair, if one does not have a source of salt, salt can become very valuable.
As much as I would enjoy seeing 32 million ounces of silver indicated as "sold in Feb" at the US Mint's website, there "only" are roughly 3 million.
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2013
I wonder were the number in the above graph comes from
Good point. And Feb is much lower than Jan.
Maybe those stats are fake too.
Keep stacking...
Still closing out stocks...just can't trust the books. Have you read any 10k 10q of the banks?
pretty simple. if i wanted physical gold cheap i would pound the etf short and buy the physical while playing the arbitrage in the paper market to my advantage because i have the juice to do it, stupid yankee dog.china and russia are doing you a big favor. buy all you can but buy unconfiscatable stuff like junk jewelry. the anti-santa claus(he sees you when you are sleeping, he knows when you are awke, he knows if you have been good or bad, so be good for goodness sake and give everything to santa. it belongs to him anyway) .gov will take everything from you and the constitution says it is okay a la fdr
there are reports war in iran is planned for june. that should frothyize the pm market. kinda fits. the aussies say the commodity market is heating up. china is hoarding because the euro market is dead, chinamart is fretting in the usa and japan trade is way down. then there is the ruble/yuan exclusive deal, fighting now in lebanon between joe quaeda and hezbollah, escalating african wars, greece is totally socially and politically unraveled with italy mocking the banksters with a comedian and a rogue billionaire. and then there is the bernank and the zions dubstep machine. this is the year of the snake, the beginning of the age of aquarius and the end of the 26000 year mayan cycle. this is the end and the beginning, the phoenix. we are fucked.
Um... This is bog standard economics. if you sell something too cheap you run out.
If you control the price there will be shortages.
Look what happened to Twinkies
Time to bring back this "timeless" classic about gold backing. Ok....at least she's cute.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLL2r3hXmjA
stateside