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As Goes China, So Goes The World And Definitely Australia

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While China depends on only one nation for 15% or more of its exports (US 17.3%), Bloomberg's Michael McDonough notes that an incredible 35 nations depend of China for at least 15% of the exports; up from just 4 in 2001. Most are emerging markets or major commodity producers with the shift being driven by China's demand for raw materials, fueled by its investment-led growth model and the stimulus package following the global financial crisis. This gross dependence leaves the world's economy increasingly susceptible to shifts in the Chinese business cycle - most notably Australia which relies on China for a massive 30% of its export demand. This is almost double the next largest developed nation of Japan (which relies on China for 18.5% of its exports) though tensions between the two nations has led to an almost 10% decline in Chinese imports of Japanese goods since September. As we have noted, China has become a key source of FDI in Africa in recent years and 12 of the 20 most-China-dependent economies are from that continent; but as China attempts to transition from investment toward consumption, demand for commodities may slow and downside risk grows for these dependent commodity-producing nations.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg Briefs

 


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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
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Also, as goes the US so goes China and Australia; and  US recession is on the cards for Q1/Q2.

~$275 billion worth of economic drag is already in the pipeline for 2013 without even Obamaquester (~$320B drag with Obamaquester):

• ~$175B direct tax and payroll tax increases

• ~$100B lost disposable income secondary to higher gas prices

• ~$44B in spending cuts mandated by Obamaquester

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment MrX
MrX's picture

As goes Earth, so go the rest of the planets: http://vimeo.com/15056028

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment UnpatrioticHoarder
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Australia is the 2nd-largest gold producer. And a top 5 silver producer. We'll be fine

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Sounds like you're in need of "liberation." Expect a coalition of the willing to bring you some democracy shortly.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:08 | Link to Comment fudge
fudge's picture

Australia is screwed, only the sheep don't know it yet.

 

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

You sure you're not talking about New Zealand?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 02:40 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Steady! Let's settle this with a real bloody blokes game we call 'Bull Rush', bearfoot of course and sorry none of those nancy boy helmets and armour you yanks play with in that rather complicated game called 'NFL'.

You name the field! I'll bring all the Trevs and few Maori fellas....

I offer as the prize a pure-bread 'Romney' affectionatley called Lamb Chop to the winning team for the after game party out in the cow shed.... but don't tell the kids OK cause they have nursed her since last years lambing season. But she's getting on and well the Freezers a bit empty.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 05:43 | Link to Comment Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Wow! Rogue trooper, does that bring back fond memories of my early life....feeling homesick now.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

And the Aussie index says "Sowhat?mate!"

 

Looking just like aapl did as it roared to $700

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Your dead on, they wouldn't be trying to find blame on people if it wasn't a problem.  They know this is going to hurt and are getting ready to blame each other.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment mjorden
mjorden's picture

Are there any statistics to show the breakdown of China's GDP.  In reference to actual productivity growth ... Can't find it, but saw some stats yesterday that shows the productivity component of GDP is in a defenitive downtrend over the past few decades. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

So China's reliance on "advanced economies" is declining. Which is good for them bad for you

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:22 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Don't worry, Australia can save itself with their massive exports of vegemite!!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:17 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

A lit-tle Roo meat nevah hut no one, Mayte.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:24 | Link to Comment UnpatrioticHoarder
UnpatrioticHoarder's picture

Australia is the 2nd-largest gold producer and a top 5 silver producer. Our arses will be saved once again.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:35 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Or you'll be the unfortunate victims of a "peacekeeping" mission.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment gutfeeling
gutfeeling's picture

The way Australia is run frustrates the hell out of me. We have EVERYTHING we need - water (despite the interior being dry there is plenty of it for everyone here), food, minerals, space - and yet we STILL run deficits!! I mean WTF? We should have a SURPLUS of money!!! I can only blame our politicians (Labor, mostly) with their over-bloated agencies and public service trying to buy votes, and the politicians retiring on their AUS$110K tax-free lifetime pensions plus free air travel plus fee train travel plus plus... bastards.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:16 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

How could there be bonds without deficits?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:22 | Link to Comment Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

Oooooooh  you won't like me then. I'm a PS from Canberra sitting around the office all day reading these forums. Hehehehehe. Sorry chump!  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:29 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Governments are people, people are greedy, absolute power corrupts absolutely.  If they increase your taxes and you are stupid enough to pay the taxes, why wouldn't your observation be the obvious outcome?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

The Australian Housing Bubble is incredible. A place I looked at in 2000 for $265k (which I thought was too expensive then) just sold for $863k. I cannot believe that situation can continue for long even if China does not slow down. Wages have risen but not as fast as housing and food. Anyone interested in a good laugh check out prices fo tiny condos on or near Darling Harbor...they are outrageous! Also read the recent annual survey of the most 'unaffordable place to live.' Australia has at least two on that list. ( I think they were Sydney and Melbourne).

 

Doesn't make sense.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:39 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Make no mistake, the epicentre of any Australian implosion bomb will be.....Perth!

Of all the cities in Australia, Perth is the place which relies upon China the most. The commodity boom fed the greatest realestate bubble in the southern hemisphere. Wages are bloated, living standards are the highest there, and, egos to match. Most of the Pubs are gone, replaced with Wine Bars....nuff said.

Remember what I wrote several times before. The State flag of W.A. has a dirty great Black Swan upon it. Irony.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:24 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

True dat, Two Shorts, I was there several times in the 1990's before all this silliness began and really enjoyed Perth back then; very down to earth, so to speak.

It gradually changed with the Global Bubble formation and China's rise esp after the PRCs massive stimulus.... changed into what you describe.....wine bars, "Asian Fusion" food instead of Chinese take-a-way, seriously overpriced condos and houses, etc. not as much fun anymore imo.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 03:46 | Link to Comment LMLP
LMLP's picture

Indeed Two Shorts..... though organic growth from the two biggest populations of China and India let alone the rest of Asia is hardly going to go away soon (4.2billion people in Asia Pacfic! whats developing and whats developed starting not to matter....

You haven't seen rich people till you've seen rich Chinese, Indian,Indonesians...etcetc..... All looking for good clean food, saftey and healthy environment for their kids...Hello Australia.....same time zone, hello Perth!

Australia's about to see how many!!

http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2012/11/01/australia-targets-c...

Q is how to tap that flow?

 

 

 

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 01:03 | Link to Comment intj87
intj87's picture

Yeah, I'm in Alberta....
We have 5B defecit with these prices...
SMH 

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 01:35 | Link to Comment MaxThrust
MaxThrust's picture

That's why I wont live there. The thought of all that waisted tax money would drive me mad.

Just turn out the lights when the last skinny shella leaves, shouldn't be long now.

Max

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:49 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Australia is the 2nd-largest gold producer and a top 5 silver producer. Our arses will be saved once again.

************

You missed uranium-China's coal fired electricity is biting them in the ass with pollution-Japan has no other choice than a return to nuclear as NG for them is through the roof-

Nuclear is the most hated power source on the planet right now and so that almost gaurantees it's where we'll go--long term bullish uranium miners-which have been looking perky the last while-

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Short story in 7 chapters:  Ch.1-4: China imports mostly food and natural resources, but less and less of 'value-add' goods.   Ch.5-6: The countries on the list that export food & resources have a steady, long-term customer.   Ch.7: The 'value-add' countries do not have a steady, long-term customer.  The End.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

'Please do not sell sterling while we hyperinflate' rounds up most of these articles quite well.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

The last time I checked their imports from us, it was mostly coal, and used GM auto parts. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

That's ok, i was thinking more along the lines of ZAR or NZD

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:08 | Link to Comment groundedkiwi
groundedkiwi's picture

NZ has just declared a drought in Northland and the rest of the country is just a few days away from being in official drought. dairying is going to be hurting.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The NWO could use Australia as penal colony for the world. It worked once.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment RideTheWalrus
RideTheWalrus's picture

Randy Newman - Political Science - YouTube

No one likes us-I don't know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try
But all around, even our old friends put us down
Let's drop the big one and see what happens

We give them money-but are they grateful?
No, they're spiteful and they're hateful
They don't respect us-so let's surprise them
We'll drop the big one and pulverize them

Asia's crowded and Europe's too old
Africa is far too hot
And Canada's too cold
And South America stole our name
Let's drop the big one
There'll be no one left to blame us

We'll save Australia
Don't wanna hurt no kangaroo
We'll build an All American amusement park there
They got surfin', too

Boom goes London and boom Paris
More room for you and more room for me
And every city the whole world round
Will just be another American town
Oh, how peaceful it will be
We'll set everybody free
You'll wear a Japanese kimono babe
And there'll be Italian shoes for me

They all hate us anyhow
So let's drop the big one now
Let's drop the big one now


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

and australia has the worlds only un-popped housing bubble (aside from hong kong)....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:00 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

I wouldn't say unpopped. There's a small, slow leak in most places that aren't Sydney. There's properties on the market for 3 to 4 months in areas that have been high demand due to mining. You don't hear about that in the MSM though - just when there's price increases in Sydney.

However, we'll just dig more holes and keep it going as long as possible.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:37 | Link to Comment sudzee
sudzee's picture

Include Canada.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Orly - can only say that I didn't know that ths article was coming out...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:33 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Me, either.  But that doesn't change what Stevens said the other day, that China's economy is getting better.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/02/22/forexlive-asia-wrap-aud-strengt...

Also what OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL posted on Bruce's thread earlier:

"Less than a third of the resources Aussie sells abroad is iron ore, the rest is things like coal which the power plants of Asia will never stop needing, plus things like uranium, Asia is building 48 NEW nuke plants in the next five years. And of course gold. And Aussie's trade partner China is 30% of her trade, but even Japan is 22% trade with China, so a real China slowdown lowers them as well. Yes the wedge pattern means a bigger move is coming, my guess is that fund flows trump trade flows and AUD gets weaker. Which incidentally will boost Aussie's #2 industry, tourism. You should see the busloads of Chinese tourists, trying to look cool with their new clothes and bags and stuff but obviously just 1/2 generation out of the dirt village. The Lucky Country!"

 3278792

My bold.

I fail to see what's changed.

:/

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:56 | Link to Comment MommyDearest
MommyDearest's picture

Australia is going nowhere but up.. China is going to need plenty of commodity filled bullets and bombs to drop on their Japanese neighbours shortly.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:57 | Link to Comment MommyDearest
MommyDearest's picture

Australia is going nowhere but up.. China is going to need plenty of commodity-filled bullets and bombs to drop on their Japanese neighbours shortly.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

                                                                                                                Kissinger flies into Jakarta.  Nudge,nudge.Wink,wink.....  Kissinger flies out of jakarta.

The Indonesians move into the former Portugese colony of East Timor and begin slaughtering the unarmed population the next day (and killing the journalists it finds at Balibo).

The Indonesians illegally annex this country and people for almost thirty years.

Aussie MP Gareth Evans signs Timor Gap treaty dividing up the oil and gas rights between Australia and Indonesia.

Oh,and this was Muslims slaughtering Christians,by the way.But then forget about it .Everyone else has....

I lived in Oz for twenty years.Great people but the politicians are paid hacks the same as DC or anywhere.

In all fairness the Aussies went back and helped restore the Timorese independence.This is to their lasting credit and honor....

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

Lesson to the east timorese: you are only entitled to your sovereign liberty when your natural resources have in turn been liberated from you

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:34 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

Oh,and above..... FUCK HENRY KISSINGER,BURN IN HELL YOU TRILATERAL SCUMBAG.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

And take da Zbig witcha!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:21 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Australia may get a bond down grade by S&P, rumor on wires.  What isn't a rumor is the goverment about to steal millions of dollars from it's people.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-26/banks-warn-customers-government-se...

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Hey, Chump.  Why would they downgrade Australian paper?  What has changed?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:30 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

this is all i got:

1.0230 to 1.0218 on S&P headline

You watching the AUD?  A lot of shorts on that trade, usually trades with S&P500 bids and gold.  Not this time.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Yeah. I am long already.  I was wondering because Euro is also rising.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/02/27/recap-of-the-sp-report-on-austr...

ForexLive.com says lots of US sellers in this area.  I think they get burned on this one.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/02/26/aud-orderboard/

"Huge selling from the US overnight from 1.0250 down coincided with Bernanke’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. And its not like Mr. B really said very much.It seems risk has become a four-letter word again since the Italian election."

Remember that wedge and trading in the upper half?  The pair slid through the upper/lower boundary when Dr. Bernanke was speaking and has been riding the line since at ~1.2245.

I still think it breaks higher.

:D

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:50 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Just think of the poor souls that got burnt awaiting the 90 WMA on the YEN, with the correction that never was - yes i was one of them.

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

"Dr. Bernanke" :)

It could, but watch the 15min when a robot sent it down to 1.020, it's acting squirrelly

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

The first dip occurred before the Chairman even sat down in his chair.  That's what drove the price below the dividing line.  The second dip was when UBS said that iron ore prices will be cut in half shortly due to over-supply.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/02/27/bloomberg-article-ubs-sees-iron...

That happened once before, when the AUDUSD was 1.10, if I am not mistaken.

I think that squirrelly action is the invisible barrier I mentioned and the sellers trying to drive it lower.  We'll see when Europe comes online, especially the Brits.

:D

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 04:27 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Look at them trying to mash the price.  I've never seen anything like this before.  Apparently, someone didn't get the memo one way or the other.  Once the errant party is asked to resign, this thing is going to move, boy.

Amazing.

:0

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 03:52 | Link to Comment LMLP
LMLP's picture

THANKYOU... for pointing this out, fucking outrageous...... if you haven't used your account in x months then we'll just take it......FUCK YOU Australian Govt WTF!!!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

OT:

Can somebody/anybody help me find that story(a month or two ago) about the train running back and forth across the Canadian/US border without unloading. Thanks in advance...

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:17 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

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