Gold Jumps Most In 2013 As S&P Limps To Unch For Feb

Tyler Durden's picture


Equities dead-cat-bounced today on minimal upside volume (and low average trade size) to get the S&P back to unchanged for the month. Broadly speaking risk-assets stayed well correlated with stocks though bonds and the USD looked somewhat dead trading in a very small range given recent shenanigans. Gold and Silver had their best day of the year so far as the former broke back over $1600 (and has now seen the best 4-day jump in 6 months). It seems Bernanke's relative dovishness is losing its equity appeal (as gap prices continue to rise) but precious metals (post China new year) have rediscovered some central bank balance sheet reality. Homebuilders, buoyed by the craziest seasonal adjustments ever to sales, swung from worst-to-first on the week. Equities tracked spot VIX most of the day but even VIX did not fully partake of the exuberance in the last hour or so. AAPL's rumor-driven tom-foolery pushed it handily up to yesterday's closing VWAP +1.4% and supported the broad equity market (just as HD did in the Dow). Despite the best efforts of the media, putting lipstick on this pig day after yesterday is a push in our view.


Bonds ended the day +/-1bps (down 7bps on the week) and tracked stocks on the day. Gold surged post Bernanke. USD flatlined most of the day as JPY stayed higher and EUR did nothing. Oil rose a little on the day but remains down on the week...


S&P 500 futures show so clearly the volume surges on the downside and negligible on the upside reactions as algos take over... ES dumped back down to VWAP after-hours today...


as Builders went from worst to first in their exuberant high-beta way...


VIX and stocks tracked tick for tick except for the last hour where equities got a little ahead...


Gold has had its biggest 4-day gain in the last six months...


As equity indices pushed up to unch for the month (apart from NASDAQ)...


HY credit and equity markets were flat relative to one another today..


and AAPL rose merrily to its closing VWAP magical level on the back of stock split rumor idiocy...


FX markets flatlined broadly apart from JPY with its wild swings...



and breadth ended the day terrible (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:16 | 3279207 Lin S
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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:18 | 3279214 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

ZBH3 does not look healthy to me.. Say what you want but the "safe haven" concept is changing and will be dissolved by mid year

US everything going down bitchezzz (Europe too though the EURUSD may surprisse)

ETA 1 Month

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:50 | 3279800 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Gold not only jumped today, it jumped when the market fell apart yesterday.  

Me thinks somebody is positioning for the real crash, and intends to be in the "safe haven" that is gold.

It is currently above where it was before the FOMC Minutes head fake.  

Watch Asia take spot prices up further tonight:

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:18 | 3279216 flacon
flacon's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:18 | 3279218 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

QE4eva was confirmed today by the Bernak. He can't go back now. No matter what the stupid ass "fed minutes" imply going forward. So what now? We all just enjoy the ride up until the balloon pops in 2025?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:04 | 3279429 natronic
natronic's picture

The balloon will pop MUCH MUCH MUCH sooner than 2025.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:54 | 3279811 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

My guess is 2015....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:49 | 3280013 Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

I see it differently.  We're all sitting here waiting for the "pop."   There won't be one.  The Fed is magical at deceit.  They can and will keep this thing floating for a very long time.  Keep the citizenry calm.   They're gonna do a Roberta Flack "Killing Me Softly."   Little by little, step by step, day by day the USA standad of living will decline while the government gets larger.   The country is too divided to offer any resistence.  As more and more people become immersed into the entitlement world they will lack the will and the means to fight.   The wild cards?   China, Gold, and the Euro.   If China indicates they want a better return on their Treasuries, if Africa and South America have riots over precious metals and water, if France goes kaput, then yes...we may have a little diaherra but within 3 weeks (with the aid of the state controlled media)  the slow slide will continue.    


Wed, 02/27/2013 - 05:53 | 3281087 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

markets never pop when you want them too, they always limp on far longer than you ever believed was possible, relax it is what it is.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:19 | 3279220 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Interesting that crude ignored everything.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:26 | 3279258 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It did seem like crude had no fucking idea what direction to go in today.  Was definitely a "awaiting further information" day.  Gold, bonds, and grains have opex on Thursday, so I'm looking to Friday for some action.  Though, with it being Friday, we'll probably just get a low volume melt up.  


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:21 | 3279222 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Bull(shitter)s and bears.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:20 | 3279226 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

A rather difficult day to trade, today was.  The candlesticks on most charts seemed to have the attention span of a parakeet, and what looked like a late day selloff back to VWAP was ramped back (surprise, surprise).

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:20 | 3279227 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

Bought back VIX small today - it will be through 20 by Friday.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:23 | 3279244 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

everyone on here complains how it is a rigged casino as they keep sitting down to get dealt another hand. it's fascinating.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:27 | 3279260 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Rig=QE4EVA=BTFD. Right? Right?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:36 | 3279299 Toronto Kid
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But I just made a months salary over the last 30 days without, like, having to actually work for it!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:44 | 3279334 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

That's nothing. My friend's mom's cousin's post-op transsexual "girlfriend" made $95,000 last week on the internet.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:13 | 3279480 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hah. My dog made 10,000$ in one day on the intertubes!

Tomorrow I'll have 2 pups online!

Dial 1-800-CHUMP!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:36 | 3279748 opnwhlracer
opnwhlracer's picture

The best part of this "job" is......well, not having a job.  And I don't care if this shit is rigged, as long as I can play along at home and make some fiat, I'm happy!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:28 | 3279265 adr
adr's picture

Look you don't even have to build a home to get your stock to soar on the media claiming you actually built it!!! It must be so amazing to build 20k homes and book the stock profit off building half a million.

I'm telling the IRS I lost $185k last year. I spent more money in 2012 than I did in 2011 thanks to inflation, so my actual expenses were seasonaly adjusted 1000%, thus creating the massive loss.

I wish I didn't have a family and responsibilities so I could go on a awesome rampage against CEOs.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:32 | 3279280 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Define "family". I am in agriculture, inputs are always up.  recruit the family to go on the rampage with you.  I suspect you might be on to something big.  one might argue that the bill of rights and constitution are very clear as to what our responsibilities are in the face of fascism, regulatory capture and tyranny.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:32 | 3279281 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Grillo did it!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:39 | 3279297 espirit
espirit's picture

Was keeping powder dry for Ag to reach below $27oz. Bully that it never went that low, so will have to modify / reassess my replacement costs and establish the new range in fiatsco.

You see, I've lost all mine in a terrible boating accident.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:10 | 3279468 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

(evil laugh)

I took the chance and bought Ag on the dip. It was just starting to go back up. I held half my ammo in reserve....

We'll see what happens, but my supplier was actually low (paper vs. real inventories?) and I loaded up on Maples.

Keep Stackin'

Oh, and  Reverse Soviet!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:45 | 3279770 espirit
espirit's picture

Very well done, I applaud the muscle memory of your trigger finger. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:38 | 3279305 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

PCLN is not too shabby either

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:39 | 3279311 Zymurguy
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Off Topic:  Just bought a 0-Hedge T...


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:40 | 3279320 americanspirit
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YASNY (You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:46 | 3279348 fuu
fuu's picture

Last Year:


Even on the up we're still down.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:53 | 3279378 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

OT - Real Madrid kicking Barca's ass.  Bye-bye, Barca, from the Copa del Rey.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:54 | 3279389 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Why would anyone be buying gold when they can buy...Bitcoins?



Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:55 | 3279634 jomama
jomama's picture

i'm all for diversification, but seriously, it has no intrinsic value.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 02:45 | 3280938 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Or you could buy carbon credits - all the heavyweight backup you'll need. Oh wait, it tanked...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:11 | 3279474 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

meh, gold.

got silver?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:07 | 3279942 akak
akak's picture

Where is Trav to start slapping around the phrase "silver bagholders"?



PS: That's right, Trav, we're all "bagholders" --- bags of 90% US silver coins.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:31 | 3279553 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

When your cash goes to zero "go for gold." we'll see if we have total mayhem tomorrow or not but there has been so much outright LiQUIDITY destruction oh these many years "it must be the Republicans fault" because God forbid if the truth be told and folks understand that these trillion dollar FAILED giveaways to Europe are in fact Administration policy.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:32 | 3279558 chump666
chump666's picture

Beautiful bear trap set by the NY Fed ( continued USD swaps 1billion+ to the ECB) and Fed Lockhart jawbone just after the closing bell Monday's wipe-out.

*Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve provided $1 billion of liquidity to foreign central banks in the latest week via its swap lines for foreign central banks, the New York Fed said on Thursday.  The European Central Bank tapped the entire amount, totaling $1 billion in the week ended Feb. 20 at 0.65 percent for seven days

For now gold is the safe haven trade on Italian 10yrs going down not because of a DXY collapse.


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:49 | 3279621 jomama
jomama's picture

mother fucker, i was gonna drop another 3000 bennybux on Ag this weekend. 


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:52 | 3279624 devo
devo's picture

When Bernanke said he might adjust asset purchases he meant (a) more and(b) stocks. Sovereign wealth fund, bitchez. Picked up some NEM at low 41. Good buy. Buying hard asset stocks.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:53 | 3279630 css1971
css1971's picture

Ben really does have stocks back. A single down day and he's out preaching that he'll print forever.

Holy fuck.

Stocks are absolutely not going to be allowed to fall, they're a sure thing. Has anyone ever done that explicitly like this before ever? I mean literally said buy stocks we'll give you money.

Can anyone give me a good reason not to go all in, levered 3x or more?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:58 | 3279642 chump666
Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:16 | 3279689 css1971
css1971's picture

They stop trading if it's what, 10%? Out comes Ben and says yeah, we're going to print a trillion this year, just for MBS &  bond holders. You know what's next? Corporate debt, it's an indicator that needs to be removed.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:41 | 3279762 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

but but but green shoots are everywhere, said Obama.........

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:00 | 3279643 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'll give you multiple reasons to go "all in" and with a shitload of leverage:


1)  Central bank "puts," whether by Greenspan or Bernanke, always work indefinitely.

2)  The majority of equity "market" investors will not only not lose a significant % of their "investment," but will become fabulously wealthy.

3)  The best way to make a huge fortune in "stawks" is by jumping all in, Jeremy Siegel-style, and never looking back.

4)  Stock prices have reached what appears to be a permanently high plateau.


Do it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:03 | 3279654 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If we ever go mad max and we are running around on the streets attacking each other like those braveheart scenes and I run into Jeremy Siegel I am going to tell him that I don't hold his Wharton status in high regard.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:44 | 3279776 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And then lop his head off?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:18 | 3279651 devo
devo's picture

Well, if corporate America tanks there's nothing. We're going to see more capital controls and persuasion force people into stocks.

What I don't understand is that if the Federal Reserve is a private bank with shareholders, why they'd want all these bonds on their balance sheet. Why are they taking massive future loss to prop this up? Are they converting any paper gains now into gold? I just don't get it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:47 | 3279794 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The FED is the bad bank (loading it with the toxic and worthless assets). Its members charters will not be left holding the bag when they crash it, imo.

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