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Gold Jumps Most In 2013 As S&P Limps To Unch For Feb

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Equities dead-cat-bounced today on minimal upside volume (and low average trade size) to get the S&P back to unchanged for the month. Broadly speaking risk-assets stayed well correlated with stocks though bonds and the USD looked somewhat dead trading in a very small range given recent shenanigans. Gold and Silver had their best day of the year so far as the former broke back over $1600 (and has now seen the best 4-day jump in 6 months). It seems Bernanke's relative dovishness is losing its equity appeal (as gap prices continue to rise) but precious metals (post China new year) have rediscovered some central bank balance sheet reality. Homebuilders, buoyed by the craziest seasonal adjustments ever to sales, swung from worst-to-first on the week. Equities tracked spot VIX most of the day but even VIX did not fully partake of the exuberance in the last hour or so. AAPL's rumor-driven tom-foolery pushed it handily up to yesterday's closing VWAP +1.4% and supported the broad equity market (just as HD did in the Dow). Despite the best efforts of the media, putting lipstick on this pig day after yesterday is a push in our view.

 

Bonds ended the day +/-1bps (down 7bps on the week) and tracked stocks on the day. Gold surged post Bernanke. USD flatlined most of the day as JPY stayed higher and EUR did nothing. Oil rose a little on the day but remains down on the week...

 

S&P 500 futures show so clearly the volume surges on the downside and negligible on the upside reactions as algos take over... ES dumped back down to VWAP after-hours today...

 

as Builders went from worst to first in their exuberant high-beta way...

 

VIX and stocks tracked tick for tick except for the last hour where equities got a little ahead...

 

Gold has had its biggest 4-day gain in the last six months...

 

As equity indices pushed up to unch for the month (apart from NASDAQ)...

 

HY credit and equity markets were flat relative to one another today..

 

and AAPL rose merrily to its closing VWAP magical level on the back of stock split rumor idiocy...

 

FX markets flatlined broadly apart from JPY with its wild swings...

 

 

and breadth ended the day terrible (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Lin S
Lin S's picture

Bullish!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

ZBH3 does not look healthy to me.. Say what you want but the "safe haven" concept is changing and will be dissolved by mid year

US everything going down bitchezzz (Europe too though the EURUSD may surprisse)

ETA 1 Month

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:50 | Link to Comment AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Gold not only jumped today, it jumped when the market fell apart yesterday.  

Me thinks somebody is positioning for the real crash, and intends to be in the "safe haven" that is gold.

It is currently above where it was before the FOMC Minutes head fake.  

Watch Asia take spot prices up further tonight:  http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

LOL

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

QE4eva was confirmed today by the Bernak. He can't go back now. No matter what the stupid ass "fed minutes" imply going forward. So what now? We all just enjoy the ride up until the balloon pops in 2025?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:04 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

The balloon will pop MUCH MUCH MUCH sooner than 2025.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:54 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

My guess is 2015....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

I see it differently.  We're all sitting here waiting for the "pop."   There won't be one.  The Fed is magical at deceit.  They can and will keep this thing floating for a very long time.  Keep the citizenry calm.   They're gonna do a Roberta Flack "Killing Me Softly."   Little by little, step by step, day by day the USA standad of living will decline while the government gets larger.   The country is too divided to offer any resistence.  As more and more people become immersed into the entitlement world they will lack the will and the means to fight.   The wild cards?   China, Gold, and the Euro.   If China indicates they want a better return on their Treasuries, if Africa and South America have riots over precious metals and water, if France goes kaput, then yes...we may have a little diaherra but within 3 weeks (with the aid of the state controlled media)  the slow slide will continue.    

T  

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 05:53 | Link to Comment Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

markets never pop when you want them too, they always limp on far longer than you ever believed was possible, relax it is what it is.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Interesting that crude ignored everything.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It did seem like crude had no fucking idea what direction to go in today.  Was definitely a "awaiting further information" day.  Gold, bonds, and grains have opex on Thursday, so I'm looking to Friday for some action.  Though, with it being Friday, we'll probably just get a low volume melt up.  

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Bull(shitter)s and bears.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

A rather difficult day to trade, today was.  The candlesticks on most charts seemed to have the attention span of a parakeet, and what looked like a late day selloff back to VWAP was ramped back (surprise, surprise).

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

Bought back VIX small today - it will be through 20 by Friday.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

everyone on here complains how it is a rigged casino as they keep sitting down to get dealt another hand. it's fascinating.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Rig=QE4EVA=BTFD. Right? Right?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Toronto Kid
Toronto Kid's picture

But I just made a months salary over the last 30 days without, like, having to actually work for it!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

That's nothing. My friend's mom's cousin's post-op transsexual "girlfriend" made $95,000 last week on the internet.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hah. My dog made 10,000$ in one day on the intertubes!

Tomorrow I'll have 2 pups online!

Dial 1-800-CHUMP!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment opnwhlracer
opnwhlracer's picture

The best part of this "job" is......well, not having a job.  And I don't care if this shit is rigged, as long as I can play along at home and make some fiat, I'm happy!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Look you don't even have to build a home to get your stock to soar on the media claiming you actually built it!!! It must be so amazing to build 20k homes and book the stock profit off building half a million.

I'm telling the IRS I lost $185k last year. I spent more money in 2012 than I did in 2011 thanks to inflation, so my actual expenses were seasonaly adjusted 1000%, thus creating the massive loss.

I wish I didn't have a family and responsibilities so I could go on a awesome rampage against CEOs.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Define "family". I am in agriculture, inputs are always up.  recruit the family to go on the rampage with you.  I suspect you might be on to something big.  one might argue that the bill of rights and constitution are very clear as to what our responsibilities are in the face of fascism, regulatory capture and tyranny.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Grillo did it!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Was keeping powder dry for Ag to reach below $27oz. Bully that it never went that low, so will have to modify / reassess my replacement costs and establish the new range in fiatsco.

You see, I've lost all mine in a terrible boating accident.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

(evil laugh)

I took the chance and bought Ag on the dip. It was just starting to go back up. I held half my ammo in reserve....

We'll see what happens, but my supplier was actually low (paper vs. real inventories?) and I loaded up on Maples.

Keep Stackin'

Oh, and  Reverse Soviet!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:45 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Very well done, I applaud the muscle memory of your trigger finger. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

PCLN is not too shabby either

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Off Topic:  Just bought a 0-Hedge T...

luckeeeeeeeeee.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

YASNY (You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Last Year: http://i44.tinypic.com/21o66bm.png

Today: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Even on the up we're still down.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

OT - Real Madrid kicking Barca's ass.  Bye-bye, Barca, from the Copa del Rey.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Why would anyone be buying gold when they can buy...Bitcoins?

 

Scary.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:55 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

i'm all for diversification, but seriously, it has no intrinsic value.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 02:45 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Or you could buy carbon credits - all the heavyweight backup you'll need. Oh wait, it tanked...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

meh, gold.

got silver?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:07 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Where is Trav to start slapping around the phrase "silver bagholders"?

;-)

 

PS: That's right, Trav, we're all "bagholders" --- bags of 90% US silver coins.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

When your cash goes to zero "go for gold." we'll see if we have total mayhem tomorrow or not but there has been so much outright LiQUIDITY destruction oh these many years "it must be the Republicans fault" because God forbid if the truth be told and folks understand that these trillion dollar FAILED giveaways to Europe are in fact Administration policy.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:32 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Beautiful bear trap set by the NY Fed ( continued USD swaps 1billion+ to the ECB) and Fed Lockhart jawbone just after the closing bell Monday's wipe-out.

*Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve provided $1 billion of liquidity to foreign central banks in the latest week via its swap lines for foreign central banks, the New York Fed said on Thursday.  The European Central Bank tapped the entire amount, totaling $1 billion in the week ended Feb. 20 at 0.65 percent for seven days

For now gold is the safe haven trade on Italian 10yrs going down not because of a DXY collapse.

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:49 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

mother fucker, i was gonna drop another 3000 bennybux on Ag this weekend. 

GET TO WORK BLYTHE!!!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:52 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

When Bernanke said he might adjust asset purchases he meant (a) more and(b) stocks. Sovereign wealth fund, bitchez. Picked up some NEM at low 41. Good buy. Buying hard asset stocks.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:53 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Ben really does have stocks back. A single down day and he's out preaching that he'll print forever.

Holy fuck.

Stocks are absolutely not going to be allowed to fall, they're a sure thing. Has anyone ever done that explicitly like this before ever? I mean literally said buy stocks we'll give you money.

Can anyone give me a good reason not to go all in, levered 3x or more?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 18:58 | Link to Comment chump666
Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:16 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

They stop trading if it's what, 10%? Out comes Ben and says yeah, we're going to print a trillion this year, just for MBS &  bond holders. You know what's next? Corporate debt, it's an indicator that needs to be removed.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

but but but green shoots are everywhere, said Obama.........

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:00 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'll give you multiple reasons to go "all in" and with a shitload of leverage:

 

1)  Central bank "puts," whether by Greenspan or Bernanke, always work indefinitely.

2)  The majority of equity "market" investors will not only not lose a significant % of their "investment," but will become fabulously wealthy.

3)  The best way to make a huge fortune in "stawks" is by jumping all in, Jeremy Siegel-style, and never looking back.

4)  Stock prices have reached what appears to be a permanently high plateau.

 

Do it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:03 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If we ever go mad max and we are running around on the streets attacking each other like those braveheart scenes and I run into Jeremy Siegel I am going to tell him that I don't hold his Wharton status in high regard.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And then lop his head off?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Well, if corporate America tanks there's nothing. We're going to see more capital controls and persuasion force people into stocks.

What I don't understand is that if the Federal Reserve is a private bank with shareholders, why they'd want all these bonds on their balance sheet. Why are they taking massive future loss to prop this up? Are they converting any paper gains now into gold? I just don't get it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The FED is the bad bank (loading it with the toxic and worthless assets). Its members charters will not be left holding the bag when they crash it, imo.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:04 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

But there are private shareholders of the FED, right? Why are these shareholders approving the purchase of worthless assets. Are you saying JPM et al are the real shareholders and the're dumping their garbage into the FED so taxpayers are on the hook? In that case, it makes sense. But who are the FED shareholders? I have never seen any names.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, something like that. Use the FED as the garbage dump. Just a guess on my part.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:35 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

But there must be a list of names of those shareholders. Never gets published, but why are they willing (if they are real people who do in fact exist) to act as the landfill? Random question I know but something I never see addressed. Who the hell are the shareholders and why do they want the debt? Answer this, ZH!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Here is a chart that helps to show you who the shareholders are.

http://www.save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.html

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 21:01 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Thanks. Not sure how official that chart is (Rothchild at top made me laugh), but it's better than nothing.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I just cannot bring myself to jump on board the "Ben has your back" bandwagon even after what we've seen the past few years. It..just doesn't feel right. Moral or otherwise.

Fuck him and fuck stocks.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 19:30 | Link to Comment StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

It's green shoots/recovery summer 4! KKKramer ,Obama, GoSux and CNN all say!

 

 

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment smart girl
smart girl's picture

Great commentary, great writing; hey, you are making history :-)

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 20:17 | Link to Comment smart girl
smart girl's picture

I still think it's gonna crack and soon.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 01:22 | Link to Comment Suisse
Suisse's picture

How is it going to crack? Central banks world wide have rates as low as they can go. 

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