New Home Sales Seasonal Adjustments Go Full Retard

Tyler Durden's picture


Ok Census Bureau: enough is enough.

In the government's endless desire to show just how blistering, nay, stupendously amazingful the gargantuantest housing recovery has been, we just got news that New Home Sales in January soared, SOARED, to 437K from an upward revised 378K, slamming expectations of a 380K print (chart). "This is the best New Home Sales print since August 2008!" the mainstream media roared with adoration and approval (hoping for an avalanche of ad RFPs from Trulia, Zillow and of course, the NAR). Alas, as so often happens, there was more than meets the eye.

Much, much more.

For one: the actual, unadjusted number of homes sold in January was a meager 31K (of which 1,000 houses sold in the $750K+ range): a tiny 4K increase from December, the same as August, and lower than all months from March to July 2012 (chart); the houses for sale rose to the highest since December 2011; the Median Price plunged to $226,400, the lowest since January 2012 and down $23k from December's $249,800. Finally of the 31K houses sold in January, just 12K were actually completed, with 10K under construction and 10K not even started. So who cares: seasonal adjustments happen all the time, and January just happens to be an important inflection point right? Yes.

Which is precisely why we took the December-to-January change in New Home Sales as reported since the peak of the housing bubble, to get an accurate sense of how this inversion has behaved in history. The result is plotted below: the blue bar shows the sequential change in actual data. The red one shows the seasonally adjusted one.

Please highlight the full retard seasonal adjustment.

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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:44 | 3277691 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture



Exploding front lobes?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | 3277713 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

dont forget, confidence soared as gas climbs 50 cents, PR taxes took out 2% of everyone's gross and GDP was negative in Q4.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | 3277720 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

wait- this is bullish, right?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | 3277767 greyghost
greyghost's picture

the bearded wonder has spoken and both gold and silver have woodies

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | 3277801 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ben looks like the south end of a jackass headed north.

Tequila for breakfast will do that to you.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:49 | 3278270 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Thanks, Zero Hedge. I believe this is one of only 3 places that actually takes the time to present the actual numbers of homes sold, which is the purest and most informationally beneficial method of reporting especially for those who suspect but haven't quite figured out how the government and its Main Stream Media proxy shills (all of which are owned by a scant 6 corporations) are able to "paint the tape" in various shades of total and utter bullshit.

As Mark Twain said:

"There are lies, damned lies & statistics."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:11 | 3278353 redpill
redpill's picture

Actually you are incorrect.  What the Census spits out has little to do with the actual number of homes sold.  Census new home sales is a painfully small sample of permit activity, and the margin of error is such that the period-over-period change is frequently indistinguishable from zero in statistical terms.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:43 | 3278462 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Correct, non-adjusted permits are the only semi-useful thing they publish.  Everything else is noise.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:44 | 3279367 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Not to get "all anal," but permits can be for spec or sold jobs.

Depending on area and market conditions, spec homes can comprise a full 1/3 or even more of new builds.

It's important to obtain accurate data and interpret it correctly, but new homse being built or even to-be-built under signed contract can be a very useful metric of activity.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:18 | 3278383 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Isn't it time to detain the bankers indefinitely without trial, or better yet, put them on the kill list?  Let's put that NDAA to good use! 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:45 | 3279341 dtwn
dtwn's picture

The Doctor Housing Bubble blog is a good read for analysis of the California market.  Good commentary and goes back to the first bubble.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:00 | 3277776 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Our tax dollars at work.

Boolshiticus  Maximus

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:30 | 3278426 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Taurus excretum adim homina

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:06 | 3278549 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

At least we can have a few chuckles on the way to re-education camp.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:59 | 3277771 AU5K
AU5K's picture

but .... but... calculated risk blog says were in a housing boom.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:13 | 3278113 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I wouldn't call it a boom, but there are signs of life at least here in AZ.   I just sold one of my rental properties in a couple of days, with two offers both at asking price.  If you take the time to price it at current market (or just above), you should see some action.  There is still a bunch of shadow inventory in my area, which they seem to be putting on the market gradually as prices rise.  Most of the low end foreclosure stuff is gone.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:34 | 3278205 walküre
walküre's picture

won't last. no underlying economy in AZ to support it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:27 | 3278417 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Just wait till there is no water sent to AZ and Saharafication commences.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:38 | 3280779 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Our growth industry is retirees fleeing Kalifornia.  BTW where is there an industrial base in the US? Detroit?

Where I am located, we don't rely on imported water.  We just have to dig deep, and there is plenty of water.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:16 | 3278368 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Yup, that is exactly what is happening here in SW Florida.


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:45 | 3278469 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Selling existing, rented property is a totally different market from new home or existing non-rented home sales.  People are willing to pay a premium to buy 100% or near 100% tenented property.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:02 | 3278522 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

No doubt that sales are picking up dramatically in some areas. However, once again we have to look at the trends to see if theyre organic or are they being spurred by artificial demand. In Sacramento, Real Estate agents are telling people that they "should not even bother making an offer unless it is in cash." We are simply seeing a re-allocation in investment dollars. People with money are tired of seeing .25% CD yields and a seesawing equity market, so they feel they have no other option to put their money to work.

If you analyze the sales we are getting you are seeing almost zero real housing demand from college grads or young people seeking to buy a first home. Another bouble is surely being blown in the housing market in some cities.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3278119 dbTX
dbTX's picture

They must pay this seasonal adjuster a heck of a lot of money.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:49 | 3278038 SkottFree
SkottFree's picture

Not to worry the Obama hope and change adds are working, yes we can make adustments down the road to reflect the true numbers but we will never tell you what it was because new and imporved happy numbers will be issued by then! Yes we Can!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | 3277697 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

That data looks like it may have been tampered with so as to indicate a more positive result than actually achieved...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | 3277733 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Horsemeat home sales.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:55 | 3277753 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | 3277800 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

They wouldn't do that.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | 3277698 mckee
mckee's picture

A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Closing. Always be closing, always be closing

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | 3277727 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

''FUCK YOU thats my name''

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:53 | 3277745 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

"You call yourself a salesman you son of a bitch?"

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277763 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture
Coffee is for closers.
Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:03 | 3277796 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

David Mamet... Neil Young and Shakespeare rolled into one

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:23 | 3278129 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

If takes brass balls to sell real estate.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:32 | 3278196 toxic8
toxic8's picture

Your name is "you're wanting", and you can't play the man's game, you can't close them, and then tell your wife your troubles. 'Cause only one thing counts in this world: get them to sign on the line which is dotted. You hear me you fuckin' faggots?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | 3277804 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Only the Boss get's to screw the secretairy. Everybody else gets the temps.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | 3277766 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:59 | 3277775 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Mitch & Murray are sitting on all the good leads, the Glengarry leads.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:08 | 3277828 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WHAT YOU'RE HIRED FOR, is to help us... does that seem clear to you? TO HELP US, not to... FUCK-US-UP... to help those who are going out there to try to earn a living... You fairy. You company man.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | 3277701 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

a drone for you

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | 3277702 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

when shit gets serious.....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | 3277705 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

...make stronger drinks.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:54 | 3277747 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

point your finger to the guy standing next to you....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:30 | 3277944 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

...the serious get shitting.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:32 | 3277950 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Your face looks familiar. Do I know you?  :)

<Those were the days my friend, I thought they'd never end.....>

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | 3277704 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

That's unfucking believable!  When will anyone in the MSM fucking notice what's happening?  Sorry for the rhetorical question.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | 3277735 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

The MSM knows full well what is happening - they are in on the scam.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277759 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

When my dog shits in the house... you could say.... "he knew all to well what he did"....


but sometimes.... you can also say: "THEY'RE TO STUPID".... and it's not a insult....

A lot of people are stupid.... and I don't say that to insult them.... they're just stupid. It's a observation...


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:01 | 3277782 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

I spent close to a decade working in the media industry, before I quit in disgust.  To them, it is always party first, and facts second - and if the facts contradict party, then leave the facts out.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3278122 ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

honey boo boo is a Accurate portrayal of 99% of amerika

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