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New Home Sales Seasonal Adjustments Go Full Retard

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Ok Census Bureau: enough is enough.

In the government's endless desire to show just how blistering, nay, stupendously amazingful the gargantuantest housing recovery has been, we just got news that New Home Sales in January soared, SOARED, to 437K from an upward revised 378K, slamming expectations of a 380K print (chart). "This is the best New Home Sales print since August 2008!" the mainstream media roared with adoration and approval (hoping for an avalanche of ad RFPs from Trulia, Zillow and of course, the NAR). Alas, as so often happens, there was more than meets the eye.

Much, much more.

For one: the actual, unadjusted number of homes sold in January was a meager 31K (of which 1,000 houses sold in the $750K+ range): a tiny 4K increase from December, the same as August, and lower than all months from March to July 2012 (chart); the houses for sale rose to the highest since December 2011; the Median Price plunged to $226,400, the lowest since January 2012 and down $23k from December's $249,800. Finally of the 31K houses sold in January, just 12K were actually completed, with 10K under construction and 10K not even started. So who cares: seasonal adjustments happen all the time, and January just happens to be an important inflection point right? Yes.

Which is precisely why we took the December-to-January change in New Home Sales as reported since the peak of the housing bubble, to get an accurate sense of how this inversion has behaved in history. The result is plotted below: the blue bar shows the sequential change in actual data. The red one shows the seasonally adjusted one.

Please highlight the full retard seasonal adjustment.

 


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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

Exploding front lobes?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

dont forget, confidence soared as gas climbs 50 cents, PR taxes took out 2% of everyone's gross and GDP was negative in Q4.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

wait- this is bullish, right?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment greyghost
greyghost's picture

the bearded wonder has spoken and both gold and silver have woodies

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ben looks like the south end of a jackass headed north.

Tequila for breakfast will do that to you.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:49 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Thanks, Zero Hedge. I believe this is one of only 3 places that actually takes the time to present the actual numbers of homes sold, which is the purest and most informationally beneficial method of reporting especially for those who suspect but haven't quite figured out how the government and its Main Stream Media proxy shills (all of which are owned by a scant 6 corporations) are able to "paint the tape" in various shades of total and utter bullshit.

As Mark Twain said:

"There are lies, damned lies & statistics."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Actually you are incorrect.  What the Census spits out has little to do with the actual number of homes sold.  Census new home sales is a painfully small sample of permit activity, and the margin of error is such that the period-over-period change is frequently indistinguishable from zero in statistical terms.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Correct, non-adjusted permits are the only semi-useful thing they publish.  Everything else is noise.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Not to get "all anal," but permits can be for spec or sold jobs.

Depending on area and market conditions, spec homes can comprise a full 1/3 or even more of new builds.

It's important to obtain accurate data and interpret it correctly, but new homse being built or even to-be-built under signed contract can be a very useful metric of activity.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Isn't it time to detain the bankers indefinitely without trial, or better yet, put them on the kill list?  Let's put that NDAA to good use! 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment dtwn
dtwn's picture

The Doctor Housing Bubble blog is a good read for analysis of the California market.  Good commentary and goes back to the first bubble.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:00 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Our tax dollars at work.

Boolshiticus  Maximus

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:30 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Taurus excretum adim homina

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:06 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

At least we can have a few chuckles on the way to re-education camp.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment AU5K
AU5K's picture

but .... but... calculated risk blog says were in a housing boom.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:13 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I wouldn't call it a boom, but there are signs of life at least here in AZ.   I just sold one of my rental properties in a couple of days, with two offers both at asking price.  If you take the time to price it at current market (or just above), you should see some action.  There is still a bunch of shadow inventory in my area, which they seem to be putting on the market gradually as prices rise.  Most of the low end foreclosure stuff is gone.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

won't last. no underlying economy in AZ to support it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Just wait till there is no water sent to AZ and Saharafication commences.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:38 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Our growth industry is retirees fleeing Kalifornia.  BTW where is there an industrial base in the US? Detroit?

Where I am located, we don't rely on imported water.  We just have to dig deep, and there is plenty of water.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment indygo55
indygo55's picture

Yup, that is exactly what is happening here in SW Florida.

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Selling existing, rented property is a totally different market from new home or existing non-rented home sales.  People are willing to pay a premium to buy 100% or near 100% tenented property.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:02 | Link to Comment in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

No doubt that sales are picking up dramatically in some areas. However, once again we have to look at the trends to see if theyre organic or are they being spurred by artificial demand. In Sacramento, Real Estate agents are telling people that they "should not even bother making an offer unless it is in cash." We are simply seeing a re-allocation in investment dollars. People with money are tired of seeing .25% CD yields and a seesawing equity market, so they feel they have no other option to put their money to work.

If you analyze the sales we are getting you are seeing almost zero real housing demand from college grads or young people seeking to buy a first home. Another bouble is surely being blown in the housing market in some cities.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment dbTX
dbTX's picture

They must pay this seasonal adjuster a heck of a lot of money.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:49 | Link to Comment SkottFree
SkottFree's picture

Not to worry the Obama hope and change adds are working, yes we can make adustments down the road to reflect the true numbers but we will never tell you what it was because new and imporved happy numbers will be issued by then! Yes we Can!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | Link to Comment ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

That data looks like it may have been tampered with so as to indicate a more positive result than actually achieved...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Horsemeat home sales.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:55 | Link to Comment astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

Inconceivable!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

They wouldn't do that.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Closing. Always be closing, always be closing

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

''FUCK YOU thats my name''

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

"You call yourself a salesman you son of a bitch?"

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture
Coffee is for closers.
Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

David Mamet... Neil Young and Shakespeare rolled into one

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:23 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

If takes brass balls to sell real estate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZg_ALxEz0

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:32 | Link to Comment toxic8
toxic8's picture

Your name is "you're wanting", and you can't play the man's game, you can't close them, and then tell your wife your troubles. 'Cause only one thing counts in this world: get them to sign on the line which is dotted. You hear me you fuckin' faggots?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Only the Boss get's to screw the secretairy. Everybody else gets the temps.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I NEED BETTER LEADS!!! I NEED BETTER LEADS!!!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Mitch & Murray are sitting on all the good leads, the Glengarry leads.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WHAT YOU'RE HIRED FOR, is to help us... does that seem clear to you? TO HELP US, not to... FUCK-US-UP... to help those who are going out there to try to earn a living... You fairy. You company man.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

a drone for you

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

when shit gets serious.....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

...make stronger drinks.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

point your finger to the guy standing next to you....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

...the serious get shitting.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Your face looks familiar. Do I know you?  :)

<Those were the days my friend, I thought they'd never end.....>

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

That's unfucking believable!  When will anyone in the MSM fucking notice what's happening?  Sorry for the rhetorical question.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

The MSM knows full well what is happening - they are in on the scam.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

When my dog shits in the house... you could say.... "he knew all to well what he did"....

sure....

but sometimes.... you can also say: "THEY'RE TO STUPID".... and it's not a insult....

A lot of people are stupid.... and I don't say that to insult them.... they're just stupid. It's a observation...

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

I spent close to a decade working in the media industry, before I quit in disgust.  To them, it is always party first, and facts second - and if the facts contradict party, then leave the facts out.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

honey boo boo is a Accurate portrayal of 99% of amerika

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:35 | Link to Comment toxic8
toxic8's picture

pops always asked me the proverbial, rhetorical q:

 

"why does the dog lick his balls?"

 

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

It's almost as if they don't even care anymore.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

whatever...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

The whole world has gone full 'retard'

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

You just can't keep this recovery down.  All they have to do is make up numbers, and the economy is recovered.  We will never un-recover again.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:25 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

The Ministry of Truth will fix everything.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Just another fucking horseshit headline to create algojaculation.

Fuck you Obama and your fucking completely fucking crooked administration. Fucking asshole.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Only 5 F bombs?  Losing your touch...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:27 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I was hoping that LSL would have something nice to say about Realtors and the real estate market, and how the banks and FED have helped the recovery. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

C'mon now...we can all tell you're blocking again...let it out...tell us how you really feel...you're safe here....we all love you...

 

 

 

DITTO...+1

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Algos don't care... algos prop the market on news blurbs and ignore the finer details...

ALGOFUBAR.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment economessed
economessed's picture

Obviously these data were drawn from the same math that says 2 + 2 = 5 for extremely large values of 2.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Or math that is used for trig on Mobius glassware.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They ain't even trying to hide the manipulation any more. Good! It will force more and more people to either pull the covers way over their head or begin to look just a little bit closer.

Denial dies hard.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

It's the whole "don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining" thing. The bastards who run the system are taking a racehorse-sized leak on all of us, but some people ignore it just because the government and the media are telling them it's only rain.

You'd think the pissy smell would become hard to ignore at some point.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

They ain't even trying to hide the manipulation any more. Good! It will force more and more people to either pull the covers way over their head or begin to look just a little bit closer.

Denial dies hard.

Or it's bought! Just ask the majority of the sitting congresscritters or the news media titans and their advertising departments...Denial Aisle aka Wasington DC and Wall St!

DaddyO

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

They ought to just release the adjustment, and leave the real data out.  The real data just gets in the way.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Seasonally adjusted, the niners won the Super Bowl.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Yeah, I remember working in construction lending for residential homes (7 years) of it, January was ALWAYS the busiest month. /SARC WTF!?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This NSA shit needs to stop.  Talk about coving up the reality of the situation.  Looking at the past Januarays, the NSA was well off base every month from actuals. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

If it weren't for clouds, it would always be sunny.

Hence, clouds should be eliminated from the weather report.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

When that does not work and where we are now remove the weather report entirely because there is no weather anymore. If then nobody reads the weather report anymore nobody will notice all those that produce it disappearing will we?

Well would you miss the weatherperson? ... *cough* reporters? Didn't think so.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

" I got my statistics degree at The Cris Angel School of Levitating Numbers and now I'm making the big money at .Gov...

And YOU can too." *

 

* Easy financing available.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

FYI... mandatory microchips in UK dogs:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9851317/All-dogs-will-now-be-mi...

"Seasonally adjust" that, alphas and bitchez!  'Sheep' are next.  For their own good. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"First they came for the dogs, and I did not speak out — because I was not a dog..."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

The FED is also buying up home directly!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Indirectly.  On behalf of its shareholders, "increasing shareholder value".  I.e. increasing the real wealth of  the controlling shareholders at GS, JPM, WF, BofA, and Citi by swapping CONfetti notes and paper 'assets' for real assets.

You should also be swapping your paper assets for real assets -- except that you can't acquire them with your HP printer or e-credit from your PC (credit out of thin air).  You'd need the LEAs and the US Army to back you up with their kind of 'money' printing operation.

They're in, you're out.  It's just like in the good ol' days of the totally unregulated Robber Barons of the 1800's.  They "own" you.  You pay rent by paying taxes on your Income, Real Property and Merchant transactions (Sales Tax in all but 2 states).  You see how long you keep "your" property if you don't pay taxes.  If you're "free", it's to graze on their land and to grow your sheep wool by shearing time.  You've been branded as their assets, their chattel.  No matter how you view or label yourself, they see you as "theirs" - and they'll use any means necessary to keep their chatel, 'Robspierre'. 

"I'm free!" some proclaim.  'Free', my ass!  Only a full-retard hick and brainwashed idiot high on something is still spouting about being 'free', because they get to indulge in their favorite 'freedom-building' activities.  Yeah, indulge, for now.  Wait & see, and let me know in 5-10 years how your 'freedom-building activities' are working out for ya.  When the freedom-pastures and grazing pastures get smaller, and shearings more frequent. /sarc.

FUB, FUO! / not sarc

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Colorado11
Colorado11's picture

All I can say is that I have never seen a apartment rental market this strong in all my years.  It's like trying to find that new best toy the day before x-mas.  People can not find a place fast enough.  I have no idea where they are coming from but it feels like homes are not an option and renting is the only option.  There goes your supply of home buyers for the next 9 to 12 months. You must be kidding me that new home sales are up.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

No normal body qualifies for loans.

Banksters must be investing in rentals.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

It used to just be me and my van down by the river, but now it' s crowded. Some blue tarp people too.( low class bastards! )

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Remember, it will keep going until it can't.

Then, the muppets will be left holding the bag. Again!

I am long rope and gas canisters.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

but in previous years, they adjusted negatively!!

so why was that? 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Party on, printing and more Keynesian booze. Bernanke and the Fed ordered freight trains of booze for the party. 

Get drunk, sick and kill yourself due to alcohol poisoning all you want. When your livers are gone you'll die and the banksters will hall you out.

Bernanke and the Fed says it's all transitory.

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:02 | Link to Comment MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

"This is a great time for me to earn a commission - uh, I mean, to buy a home!!"

-30-

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Seasonally adjusted = lying through our teeth

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Satan
Satan's picture

Indeed! The seasonally adjusted length of my penis is always the larger number.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

HAHAHAHA!  My local news business reporter just said, "The end has passed us Lory. With surging new home sales and surging home prices along with record corporate profits we have another new uptrend that will be sustained for the remainder of at least the next decade".

 

    HAHAHAHAHAHHHAAAAAAAAAAA!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

"Now ladies and gentlemen, if we turn this chart upside-down...ta-da!  Up is the new down!  Let's go to lunch."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:21 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

New house sales have rocketed, but the vendors that feed the industry are going the other way.

 

Philly Housing Index is in a slide.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-falls-hard-breaks-...

 

Isn't that weird?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Reminds me of Kevin Bacon at the end of Animal House....."All is well" !

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:42 | Link to Comment All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture

exactly....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment kw2012
kw2012's picture

This is where the 31K number came from. Apparently, there is a delay in getting all of the actual sales reported. Looks like that number is ALWAYS 10x - 15X different. http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/soldreg.pdf

 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 16:39 | Link to Comment orez65
orez65's picture

All of the "Obama Walking Dead" believe that the economy is getting better.

It's impossible to reason with them.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!