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New Home Sales Seasonal Adjustments Go Full Retard

Tyler Durden's picture


Ok Census Bureau: enough is enough.

In the government's endless desire to show just how blistering, nay, stupendously amazingful the gargantuantest housing recovery has been, we just got news that New Home Sales in January soared, SOARED, to 437K from an upward revised 378K, slamming expectations of a 380K print (chart). "This is the best New Home Sales print since August 2008!" the mainstream media roared with adoration and approval (hoping for an avalanche of ad RFPs from Trulia, Zillow and of course, the NAR). Alas, as so often happens, there was more than meets the eye.

Much, much more.

For one: the actual, unadjusted number of homes sold in January was a meager 31K (of which 1,000 houses sold in the $750K+ range): a tiny 4K increase from December, the same as August, and lower than all months from March to July 2012 (chart); the houses for sale rose to the highest since December 2011; the Median Price plunged to $226,400, the lowest since January 2012 and down $23k from December's $249,800. Finally of the 31K houses sold in January, just 12K were actually completed, with 10K under construction and 10K not even started. So who cares: seasonal adjustments happen all the time, and January just happens to be an important inflection point right? Yes.

Which is precisely why we took the December-to-January change in New Home Sales as reported since the peak of the housing bubble, to get an accurate sense of how this inversion has behaved in history. The result is plotted below: the blue bar shows the sequential change in actual data. The red one shows the seasonally adjusted one.

Please highlight the full retard seasonal adjustment.


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Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:44 | 3277691 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture



Exploding front lobes?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | 3277713 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

dont forget, confidence soared as gas climbs 50 cents, PR taxes took out 2% of everyone's gross and GDP was negative in Q4.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | 3277720 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

wait- this is bullish, right?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | 3277767 greyghost
greyghost's picture

the bearded wonder has spoken and both gold and silver have woodies

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | 3277801 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ben looks like the south end of a jackass headed north.

Tequila for breakfast will do that to you.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:49 | 3278270 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Thanks, Zero Hedge. I believe this is one of only 3 places that actually takes the time to present the actual numbers of homes sold, which is the purest and most informationally beneficial method of reporting especially for those who suspect but haven't quite figured out how the government and its Main Stream Media proxy shills (all of which are owned by a scant 6 corporations) are able to "paint the tape" in various shades of total and utter bullshit.

As Mark Twain said:

"There are lies, damned lies & statistics."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:11 | 3278353 redpill
redpill's picture

Actually you are incorrect.  What the Census spits out has little to do with the actual number of homes sold.  Census new home sales is a painfully small sample of permit activity, and the margin of error is such that the period-over-period change is frequently indistinguishable from zero in statistical terms.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:43 | 3278462 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Correct, non-adjusted permits are the only semi-useful thing they publish.  Everything else is noise.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 22:44 | 3279367 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Not to get "all anal," but permits can be for spec or sold jobs.

Depending on area and market conditions, spec homes can comprise a full 1/3 or even more of new builds.

It's important to obtain accurate data and interpret it correctly, but new homse being built or even to-be-built under signed contract can be a very useful metric of activity.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:18 | 3278383 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Isn't it time to detain the bankers indefinitely without trial, or better yet, put them on the kill list?  Let's put that NDAA to good use! 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 17:45 | 3279341 dtwn
dtwn's picture

The Doctor Housing Bubble blog is a good read for analysis of the California market.  Good commentary and goes back to the first bubble.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:00 | 3277776 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Our tax dollars at work.

Boolshiticus  Maximus

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:30 | 3278426 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Taurus excretum adim homina

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:06 | 3278549 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

At least we can have a few chuckles on the way to re-education camp.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:59 | 3277771 AU5K
AU5K's picture

but .... but... calculated risk blog says were in a housing boom.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:13 | 3278113 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I wouldn't call it a boom, but there are signs of life at least here in AZ.   I just sold one of my rental properties in a couple of days, with two offers both at asking price.  If you take the time to price it at current market (or just above), you should see some action.  There is still a bunch of shadow inventory in my area, which they seem to be putting on the market gradually as prices rise.  Most of the low end foreclosure stuff is gone.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:34 | 3278205 walküre
walküre's picture

won't last. no underlying economy in AZ to support it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:27 | 3278417 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Just wait till there is no water sent to AZ and Saharafication commences.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 00:38 | 3280779 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Our growth industry is retirees fleeing Kalifornia.  BTW where is there an industrial base in the US? Detroit?

Where I am located, we don't rely on imported water.  We just have to dig deep, and there is plenty of water.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:16 | 3278368 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Yup, that is exactly what is happening here in SW Florida.


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:45 | 3278469 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Selling existing, rented property is a totally different market from new home or existing non-rented home sales.  People are willing to pay a premium to buy 100% or near 100% tenented property.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:02 | 3278522 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

No doubt that sales are picking up dramatically in some areas. However, once again we have to look at the trends to see if theyre organic or are they being spurred by artificial demand. In Sacramento, Real Estate agents are telling people that they "should not even bother making an offer unless it is in cash." We are simply seeing a re-allocation in investment dollars. People with money are tired of seeing .25% CD yields and a seesawing equity market, so they feel they have no other option to put their money to work.

If you analyze the sales we are getting you are seeing almost zero real housing demand from college grads or young people seeking to buy a first home. Another bouble is surely being blown in the housing market in some cities.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3278119 dbTX
dbTX's picture

They must pay this seasonal adjuster a heck of a lot of money.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:49 | 3278038 SkottFree
SkottFree's picture

Not to worry the Obama hope and change adds are working, yes we can make adustments down the road to reflect the true numbers but we will never tell you what it was because new and imporved happy numbers will be issued by then! Yes we Can!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | 3277697 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

That data looks like it may have been tampered with so as to indicate a more positive result than actually achieved...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | 3277733 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Horsemeat home sales.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:55 | 3277753 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | 3277800 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

They wouldn't do that.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | 3277698 mckee
mckee's picture

A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Closing. Always be closing, always be closing

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | 3277727 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

''FUCK YOU thats my name''

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:53 | 3277745 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

"You call yourself a salesman you son of a bitch?"

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277763 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture
Coffee is for closers.
Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:03 | 3277796 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

David Mamet... Neil Young and Shakespeare rolled into one

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:23 | 3278129 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

If takes brass balls to sell real estate.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:32 | 3278196 toxic8
toxic8's picture

Your name is "you're wanting", and you can't play the man's game, you can't close them, and then tell your wife your troubles. 'Cause only one thing counts in this world: get them to sign on the line which is dotted. You hear me you fuckin' faggots?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | 3277804 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Only the Boss get's to screw the secretairy. Everybody else gets the temps.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | 3277766 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:59 | 3277775 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Mitch & Murray are sitting on all the good leads, the Glengarry leads.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:08 | 3277828 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WHAT YOU'RE HIRED FOR, is to help us... does that seem clear to you? TO HELP US, not to... FUCK-US-UP... to help those who are going out there to try to earn a living... You fairy. You company man.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | 3277701 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

a drone for you

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:45 | 3277702 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

when shit gets serious.....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | 3277705 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

...make stronger drinks.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:54 | 3277747 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

point your finger to the guy standing next to you....

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:30 | 3277944 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

...the serious get shitting.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:32 | 3277950 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Your face looks familiar. Do I know you?  :)

<Those were the days my friend, I thought they'd never end.....>

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | 3277704 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

That's unfucking believable!  When will anyone in the MSM fucking notice what's happening?  Sorry for the rhetorical question.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | 3277735 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

The MSM knows full well what is happening - they are in on the scam.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277759 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

When my dog shits in the house... you could say.... "he knew all to well what he did"....


but sometimes.... you can also say: "THEY'RE TO STUPID".... and it's not a insult....

A lot of people are stupid.... and I don't say that to insult them.... they're just stupid. It's a observation...


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:01 | 3277782 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

I spent close to a decade working in the media industry, before I quit in disgust.  To them, it is always party first, and facts second - and if the facts contradict party, then leave the facts out.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3278122 ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

honey boo boo is a Accurate portrayal of 99% of amerika

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:35 | 3278203 toxic8
toxic8's picture

pops always asked me the proverbial, rhetorical q:


"why does the dog lick his balls?"



Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:46 | 3277710 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

It's almost as if they don't even care anymore.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:53 | 3277742 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:47 | 3277718 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

The whole world has gone full 'retard'

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | 3277722 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

You just can't keep this recovery down.  All they have to do is make up numbers, and the economy is recovered.  We will never un-recover again.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:25 | 3278164 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

The Ministry of Truth will fix everything.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:48 | 3277724 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Just another fucking horseshit headline to create algojaculation.

Fuck you Obama and your fucking completely fucking crooked administration. Fucking asshole.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:39 | 3277976 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Only 5 F bombs?  Losing your touch...

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:27 | 3278175 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I was hoping that LSL would have something nice to say about Realtors and the real estate market, and how the banks and FED have helped the recovery. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:31 | 3278649 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

C'mon now...we can all tell you're blocking again...let it out...tell us how you really're safe here....we all love you...





Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | 3277725 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Algos don't care... algos prop the market on news blurbs and ignore the finer details...


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:49 | 3277726 economessed
economessed's picture

Obviously these data were drawn from the same math that says 2 + 2 = 5 for extremely large values of 2.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277760 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Or math that is used for trig on Mobius glassware.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:50 | 3277732 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They ain't even trying to hide the manipulation any more. Good! It will force more and more people to either pull the covers way over their head or begin to look just a little bit closer.

Denial dies hard.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:14 | 3277773 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

It's the whole "don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining" thing. The bastards who run the system are taking a racehorse-sized leak on all of us, but some people ignore it just because the government and the media are telling them it's only rain.

You'd think the pissy smell would become hard to ignore at some point.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:04 | 3277802 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture


They ain't even trying to hide the manipulation any more. Good! It will force more and more people to either pull the covers way over their head or begin to look just a little bit closer.

Denial dies hard.

Or it's bought! Just ask the majority of the sitting congresscritters or the news media titans and their advertising departments...Denial Aisle aka Wasington DC and Wall St!


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:51 | 3277736 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

They ought to just release the adjustment, and leave the real data out.  The real data just gets in the way.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277761 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Seasonally adjusted, the niners won the Super Bowl.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:57 | 3277762 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Yeah, I remember working in construction lending for residential homes (7 years) of it, January was ALWAYS the busiest month. /SARC WTF!?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 11:58 | 3277768 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This NSA shit needs to stop.  Talk about coving up the reality of the situation.  Looking at the past Januarays, the NSA was well off base every month from actuals. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:01 | 3277781 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

If it weren't for clouds, it would always be sunny.

Hence, clouds should be eliminated from the weather report.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:16 | 3277870 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

When that does not work and where we are now remove the weather report entirely because there is no weather anymore. If then nobody reads the weather report anymore nobody will notice all those that produce it disappearing will we?

Well would you miss the weatherperson? ... *cough* reporters? Didn't think so.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | 3277810 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

" I got my statistics degree at The Cris Angel School of Levitating Numbers and now I'm making the big money at .Gov...

And YOU can too." *


* Easy financing available.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:05 | 3277811 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

FYI... mandatory microchips in UK dogs:

"Seasonally adjust" that, alphas and bitchez!  'Sheep' are next.  For their own good. 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:18 | 3277885 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"First they came for the dogs, and I did not speak out — because I was not a dog..."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:14 | 3277864 venturen
venturen's picture

The FED is also buying up home directly!

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:44 | 3278094 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Indirectly.  On behalf of its shareholders, "increasing shareholder value".  I.e. increasing the real wealth of  the controlling shareholders at GS, JPM, WF, BofA, and Citi by swapping CONfetti notes and paper 'assets' for real assets.

You should also be swapping your paper assets for real assets -- except that you can't acquire them with your HP printer or e-credit from your PC (credit out of thin air).  You'd need the LEAs and the US Army to back you up with their kind of 'money' printing operation.

They're in, you're out.  It's just like in the good ol' days of the totally unregulated Robber Barons of the 1800's.  They "own" you.  You pay rent by paying taxes on your Income, Real Property and Merchant transactions (Sales Tax in all but 2 states).  You see how long you keep "your" property if you don't pay taxes.  If you're "free", it's to graze on their land and to grow your sheep wool by shearing time.  You've been branded as their assets, their chattel.  No matter how you view or label yourself, they see you as "theirs" - and they'll use any means necessary to keep their chatel, 'Robspierre'. 

"I'm free!" some proclaim.  'Free', my ass!  Only a full-retard hick and brainwashed idiot high on something is still spouting about being 'free', because they get to indulge in their favorite 'freedom-building' activities.  Yeah, indulge, for now.  Wait & see, and let me know in 5-10 years how your 'freedom-building activities' are working out for ya.  When the freedom-pastures and grazing pastures get smaller, and shearings more frequent. /sarc.

FUB, FUO! / not sarc

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:17 | 3277875 Colorado11
Colorado11's picture

All I can say is that I have never seen a apartment rental market this strong in all my years.  It's like trying to find that new best toy the day before x-mas.  People can not find a place fast enough.  I have no idea where they are coming from but it feels like homes are not an option and renting is the only option.  There goes your supply of home buyers for the next 9 to 12 months. You must be kidding me that new home sales are up.  

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:24 | 3277910 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

No normal body qualifies for loans.

Banksters must be investing in rentals.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:37 | 3278219 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

It used to just be me and my van down by the river, but now it' s crowded. Some blue tarp people too.( low class bastards! )

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:19 | 3277889 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Remember, it will keep going until it can't.

Then, the muppets will be left holding the bag. Again!

I am long rope and gas canisters.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:21 | 3277897 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

but in previous years, they adjusted negatively!!

so why was that? 

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 12:24 | 3277914 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Party on, printing and more Keynesian booze. Bernanke and the Fed ordered freight trains of booze for the party. 

Get drunk, sick and kill yourself due to alcohol poisoning all you want. When your livers are gone you'll die and the banksters will hall you out.

Bernanke and the Fed says it's all transitory.


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:02 | 3278077 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

"This is a great time for me to earn a commission - uh, I mean, to buy a home!!"


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:25 | 3278162 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Seasonally adjusted = lying through our teeth

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:32 | 3278434 Satan
Satan's picture

Indeed! The seasonally adjusted length of my penis is always the larger number.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 13:54 | 3278289 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

HAHAHAHA!  My local news business reporter just said, "The end has passed us Lory. With surging new home sales and surging home prices along with record corporate profits we have another new uptrend that will be sustained for the remainder of at least the next decade".



Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:01 | 3278319 Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

"Now ladies and gentlemen, if we turn this chart upside-down...ta-da!  Up is the new down!  Let's go to lunch."

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:21 | 3278401 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

New house sales have rocketed, but the vendors that feed the industry are going the other way.


Philly Housing Index is in a slide.


Isn't that weird?

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 14:31 | 3278429 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Reminds me of Kevin Bacon at the end of Animal House....."All is well" !

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:42 | 3278702 All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 15:53 | 3278770 kw2012
kw2012's picture

This is where the 31K number came from. Apparently, there is a delay in getting all of the actual sales reported. Looks like that number is ALWAYS 10x - 15X different.


Tue, 02/26/2013 - 16:39 | 3279004 orez65
orez65's picture

All of the "Obama Walking Dead" believe that the economy is getting better.

It's impossible to reason with them.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!