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Overnight Tensions Eased As Italy Sells 5, 10 Year Bonds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With little on the event calendar in the overnight session, the main news many were looking forward to was Italy's auction of €2.5 billion in 5 and €4 billion in 10 year paper, to see just how big the fallout from the Hung Parliament election was in the primary market. As SocGen explained ahead of the auction: "The target of Italy's 2017 and 2023 BTP auction today is a maximum EUR6.5bn, but in order to get to that tidy amount the Tesoro may be forced to offer a hefty mark-up in yield to compensate investors for the extra risk. Note that Italian 6-month bills were marked up at yesterday's sale from 0.731% to 1.237%. Who knows what premium investors will be asking for today for paper with the kind of duration that is not covered by the ECB OMT (should that be activated)? Will Italian institutions, already long BTPs relative to overall asset size, be forced to hoover up most of the supply?" The outcome was a successful auction which, however, as expected saw yields spike with the 4 year paper pricing at 3.59% compared to 2.95% before, while the 10 Year paper priced some 60 bps wider to the 4.17% in January, yielding 4.83%.

The result was a brief dip in Italian OTR BTP yield, which have since retraced all gains and are once again trading in the 4.90% range on their way to 5%+ as JPM forecast yesterday. And as expected, talk promptly emerged that the auction was carried by "two large domestic buyers" in other words, the two big local banks merely levered up on Italian paper hoping furiously that they are not the next MF Global.

Continuing with SocGen's recap of the situation on the ground in Italy: "In the meantime, the political situation on the ground is far from being resolved and new elections cannot be ruled out. Before it gets to that, efforts will concentrate on forming a centre left government but that will be easier said than done especially in the upper House. Monti stays in charge until the new government is appointed, but given the conditionality attached to the OMT, it is unclear whether the ECB is still in a position to backstop should the crisis linger on. President Draghi may choose not to comment on the situation in a speech in Bayern today."

In other news, Italy business confidence rose before the Italian election from a revised 88.3 to 88.5, even as the brilliant visionairies at Moody’s said Italy's election is credit negative.

Elsewhere, ECB’s Praet said that accommodative policy could lose effectiveness:

“I am referring to what used to be known as ‘instrument instability’ in policy-making,” Praet said in a speech in Frankfurt today, according to a copy provided by the ECB. “The need to apply larger and larger doses of the same policy interventions only to see their macroeconomic influence becoming more and more tenuous.”U.K. Q4 GDP shrank 0.3%, or as much as expected, on trade, weak domestic demand, as the BOE is inches away from joining the mega print global reflation attempt.

Oops.

Finally, Commerzbank said it has repaid in full its €6.2 billion from the second LTRO, in the process stigmatizing all other banks who haven't done so.

And the comprehensive recap from DB's Jim Reid:

One can't help wondering whether the Italy election represents a triumph for the notion of democracies or alternatively whether it shows that in an era of incredibly tough choices, such a system is doomed to deliver highly unhelpful outcomes. Maybe in this circumstance much depends on whether you think austerity is a necessary evil or whether you think it’s been an unmitigated disaster. Mr Monti was put in place as a democratic outcome was seen as unlikely to yield the policies designed to keep Italy within the Euro but many believe his policies have helped cause one of the worst recessions in living memory in Italy and it’s not
surprise to see the voter rebellion.

Europe needs to take this rebellion very seriously and maybe think about its policies going forward. If it wants to keep the Euro as a going concern over the years ahead it may need to find a way of easing off on austerity whilst simultaneously finding a way for the ECB to be distributing more non-conditional liquidity. A difficult balance.

Our European economists write that with no workable majority in the Senate, the most likely outcome now is a “caretaker government” which – at best – will come up with a new electoral system. As it currently stands though, the centre-left’s Bersani has indicated that he will at least try to form a government, but without mention as to which political groups he will reach out to. Yesterday Bersani called on all his opponents, including Berlusconi, to back a five-point programme of political reform, easing of austerity and job promotion. Angelino Alfano, of Berlusconi's centre-right People of Liberty party, indicated that weeks of  tough negotiations lie ahead before a new government takes office, possibly in late March.

What worries us is that the weeks and possibly months of uncertainty that lay ahead may stifle any confidence within the Italian economy and hold back the recovery. This would be very unwelcome news but it’s a realistic concern if no solid Government can be formed.

On that note, S&P and Moody’s released statements overnight commenting that while there is no change in Italy’s BBB+/Baa2 credit ratings just yet, the elections have underscored that risks to carrying out structural and fiscal reforms are substantial.

In terms of the markets, we had a significant risk-off session in Europe which saw Italian assets underperform while gilts and bunds rallied. 10yr Italian bond yields added another 41bp to close at 4.896% in its weakest one day performance since December 2011. As it stands now, 10yr yields are about 77bp off the January lows but still about 170bp lower than the peaks of summer 2012. Italian equities had a similarly weak day, testing the -5% level early in the session before closing just off the lows (-4.89%). European credit indices were also under pressure with Main (+9bp), Crossover (+34bp) and Financials (+17bp) all gapping wider on solid volumes. Perhaps the outperformer on the day was EURUSD which managed to hold at around 1.306 and finished broadly unchanged.

With this context it was impressive to see the US rally yesterday, especially after Europe closed. US markets hit a bottom just as European markets closed yesterday.

Indeed, the S&P500 was a nursing a loss of -0.2% at the time of the London close, and from there the index added 0.8% to close with a pretty respectable 0.6% gain. Bernanke offered a robust defence of the Fed’s asset purchases before the Senate Banking Committee, reiterating that inflation risks were subdued and that monetary policy was contributing to the economic recovery. Indeed, his defence was so robust that Reuters described it as coming from someone who “doesn’t plan to seek Senate support for a third term” (Reuters). As DB’s Joe LaVorgna characterises it, the bottom line is that Bernanke remains dovish. While Bernanke did not specifically address the question of where he stands on the possible need to taper the rate of monthly QE purchases, there was nothing in his remarks to suggest he is ready to change at this point.

All ten S&P500 industry sectors finished the day higher led by cyclicals and retailers – the latter helped by a 11pt rise in consumer confidence (69.6 vs 58.4 prior and 62.0 expected). Outside of the consumer confidence print, it was a solid day for US data overall with the Case-Shiller index (+0.88% vs +0.65% expected) and new home sales (+15.6%mom vs +3% expected) surprising to the upside while FHFA house prices were in line (+0.6%). Equities were also given a boost by index heavy-weight Apple, which bounced 2.7% off the session lows on reports that the tech-giant could announce a stock split at its upcoming shareholder meeting.

With the positive lead from the US, Asian markets are trading with a positive tone overnight. All major bourses are trading higher this morning with the notable exception of the Nikkei (-0.9%) which is lagging ahead of the official nomination of the BoJ governor and deputies expected by the end of the week. USDJPY is marginally lower at 91.98 and the region’s credit markets are trading around 1-2bp tighter on the day.

While Europe frets over the Italian stalemate, we should also note that we are a couple of days away from the point where the US budget sequester comes into effect (March 1st). We may get an update on where things stand today with reports suggesting both the Democrats and Republicans are preparing rival bills to replace or delay the sequester, to be voted on by the Senate on Thursday. According to the Hill, the Republican plan would maintain the level of spending reductions but give the President more flexibility to minimize their impact on government services. The Democratic package, meanwhile, would delay the sequester through to the end of the calendar year and offset the $110 billion cost with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases.

Turning to the day ahead, Italy will be testing investor appetite with a EUR2.5bn 5-year and EUR4bn 10-year auction this morning. In terms of data, euro area economic sentiment and consumer confidence in France and Germany are the main prints. Across the Atlantic, US durable goods and pending homes sales are scheduled. Bernanke speaks again at the House Financial Services Committee at 3pm London time, but we would expect that Fed Chairman will add little to his Senate testimony yesterday.

 

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Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:15 | 3281162 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

So the ECB through Italian banks was on the bid, oldest trick in the book.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:21 | 3281170 CPL
CPL's picture

Selling yourselves your own IOU's.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:24 | 3281175 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah.....gotta say. Sold to whom?

 

I don't know anyone crazy enough to bet on that future.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:26 | 3281183 new game
new game's picture

they eat their own shit

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:33 | 3281198 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If I realized I had to do that....I'd junk you too. Oh well.....screw'em if they can't take a joke.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:29 | 3281192 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

how else do you create real assets?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:48 | 3281221 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

one of my best friends long gone - an honest-to-earth proletarian - considered only children as real assets

don't think I need a diagram to show you how those real assets are created

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:52 | 3281223 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We couldn't fund any of this if it wasn't for children.

 

Thank goodness we can borrow from the future....cause we can't pay for it now.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:00 | 3281245 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

considering how fiat works I prefer the term credit

we credit ourselves with funds, payable in the future

this means we believe both in us and in our future

drawing from the "goodwill" credit card, if you want

my, am I bad humoured, today

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:06 | 3281256 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah...it's pretty much a confidence game all the way.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:24 | 3281177 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

But exactly how many of these did Bernanke buy?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:39 | 3281206 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

interesting question. or, rephrased: how much should he buy?

if in your opinion the USD will be the global reserve currency for ever, than the answer is none

if in your opinion the USD will be, eventually, a peer of the other major currencies, then the answer is way different

the FED is the only central bank of this world practically devoid of FX reserves, after all (except for gold) and so... unique

even the Bank of England could somewhat temporarily support the Pound by buying it back with EUR and of course tons of USD

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:51 | 3281224 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

What gold? Germany's gold?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:56 | 3281229 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I find the question of where more interesting: Fort Knox or the basements of the NY FED?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:00 | 3281241 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'm guessing none of the above.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:05 | 3281255 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

that would mean driving a powerful car in a race - without brakes

if the FED is indeed buying foreign bonds many would not understand why, and what for

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:11 | 3281257 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Never let your common sense get rehypothecated.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:13 | 3281267 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are right, please excuse me (meanwhile you changed your comment)

I'm still of the opinion that central banking is not evil per se - it's just something like a weapon of war

it's how you wield this power that can be for good or evil

---

now I'm at loss to give you a smart reply to your rehypothecation comment

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 09:20 | 3281294 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I believe the subject was Germany's gold.....and then you started talking about bonds.

 

Can you help them out....cause no one else is standing to deliver.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 10:14 | 3281482 CPL
CPL's picture

About 4-6 trillion dollars worth since 2009, a rough very conservative estimate. 

Some money stuffed into IMF, some to ECB, some to the EU, some to direct financing of banks, some money to Nazi's (yes they've been paying the nazi's off indirectly), some to NGO's that pretend to be government mouth pieces but are really bank fronts.

 

This doesn't include the money taht's been printed IN europe.  Point blank, Europe is hosed.  Well, the Euro is.  Europeans will keep doing what they've done since Greece.  Move on and ignore those in charge until they go away or die until the next leader shows up.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:15 | 3281163 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And who buys it... the ECB and the FED?

The bigger problem is JAPAN going bust real fast.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 10:15 | 3281483 CPL
CPL's picture

Japan has been bust for ten year, nobody wants to admit it though.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:16 | 3281164 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

How much did an unknown account that doesn't belong to anyone in Switzerland buy?

 

In other news, remember when the world was complaining about Japan buying up the US?  Guess this is the top for China then. http://live.wsj.com/video/chinese-buyers-snapping-up-us-real-estate-2013-02-26-2311537/AA999C97-031A-45E5-886A-1A00D72E51D0.html

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:16 | 3281165 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

You mean the BIS was on the bid, too?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:25 | 3281180 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Who regulates those guys again?

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:36 | 3281202 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

God. They're doing god's work.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:42 | 3281211 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Had A Chirstmas Carol been written about a BIS banker...I'm guessing the ending would have been very different.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:18 | 3281167 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bring back the Lira.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:22 | 3281171 new game
new game's picture

spread that bund

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:45 | 3281214 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you'd have to explain first what the advantage would be - particularly for Italians

have you ever witnessed a strong, fast devaluation? ain't kind on common folks

ask South Americans, for example

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:22 | 3281174 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well, italy needs to sell 300 billion this year, and somehow... I don't question the fact that somewhere this years tensions will break about that :)

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:46 | 3281216 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

of course you mean sexual tensions, don't you? ;-)

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:26 | 3281179 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

With this context it was impressive to see the US rally yesterday, especially after Europe closed.

When the markets closes, another day starts, another reality starts also...

keep dreaming boys! and make friends with the sandman!

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:25 | 3281181 new game
new game's picture

where there is hope a comedian has spoke...

last laugh at the polls

hopefully hope will not be the last laugh....

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:28 | 3281184 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

The American con game ready to open and Bernanke must be sure the DOW is over 14,000.  The American finaancial sytem is a farce and there is nothing worth investing in because everything is manipulated by these creeps.

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:27 | 3281186 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

A shell game and everybody shouting "hurray"!

 

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:33 | 3281199 SmallerGovNow2
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Anyone else think the "Scroogled" ads are creepy?  I have a hard time reading the articles with that damn eyeball looking and blinking at me...

Wed, 02/27/2013 - 08:37 | 3281203 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Microsoft stole the term "scroogle" from an anonmyzing service by the way...

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