Chicago PMI Offsets Chinese Weakness, Prints At 11 Month High

Tyler Durden's picture

The Chinese PMI may be slowing down (first HSBC, official one coming out soon), but why bother when according to MarkIt it is now the US' turn to carry the torch of economic growth, reality notwithstanding. As the just released Chicago PMI indicated, in February the broad index rose to 56.8, higher by 1.2 points and beating expectations of a 54.0 print. It is only logical that with the rest of the world in contraction mode, and China about to enter, that the US would have the highest print in 11 months (or Q1 2012, when US GDP was just a tad higher). Or not. Remember: it is all about playing along the script that always, at some place, there is at least some growth taking place. That said, while last month cojoined PMI and Mfg ISM were flipped, as has happened nearly every month in the past year to keep everyone baffled with BS, today's PMI beat likely means that the Manufacturing ISM will be a miss, which according to GETCO's algos will be just as positive for stocks, as today's beat.

Among the components, New Orders rose to the highest in 11 months rising to 60.2, from 58.2, Inventories dipped (so no GDP restocking then?), Prices Paid rose to 61.8 from 60.7, and Employment declined to 55.7 from 58.0. Only in the last case bad news is good news, just as good news is good news. In fact no news, is great news and any news will send Bernanke's policy tool, the Russell 2000 limit up.

Most entertaining as always were the respondents:

  • To start out the year, Jan[uary] was stable and we were one M[illion] above our 2012 numbers for Jan[uary]. Sales orders are up, and Feb[ruary] through the end of March is looking good.
  • Order intake is slow for January with a slight increase in February.
  • Our orders were down for January. However, by end of January we becam[e] inundated with new orders. It appears that we will be busy throughout first quarter. We will also be hiring new welders to assist with capacity.
  • Good uptick in quoting this month; hopefully it will add to our already healthy order backlog.
  • Business remains steady but not any better than 2012. We are keeping our fingers crossed that we might see some improvement, but have not seen an[y] firm indications that it will increase.


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youngman's picture

The goal is set..a new high for the DOW...that is all that matters...bitches

Spastica Rex's picture

...and sequester goes through.


Manthong's picture

What part of CHICAGO PMI do people not understand?  

markitect's picture

Could you imagine the print if Illinois was a right to work state? Indiana, Michigan and soon wiscon have gone right to work, wonder if that helped Chicago Fed district manufacturers.

BlueStreet's picture

All you can do is laugh, these fuckers aren't worth shedding a tear for.  VIX is still holding above the 20 day and Russell is holding below.    

fonzannoon's picture

This sequester is such a set up it's not even funny. The market will tank this time because Obummer and Bernank said so. Bottom line. They will get out there and tell you "we told you so". "we wanted to do it differently....the economy was recovering....I mean just look at the last pmi print!"

I will throw in an "attack" on the US within a month of the sequester. Whether it is cyber or an attack in the gulf or something. Military spending cuts will be blamed. Our new weakened position because of our self inflicted wounds is inviting attacks now.


Tsar Pointless's picture

That's the script.

And Amerikkkans will fall for it - hook, line and sinker.

Dumbest creatures on the planet.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Some fucktard libtard on the House Financial Services Committee came right out and stated to Bernankfuck that when Americans see their 401(k)s and other retirement plans plunging due to sequestration (aka 1/3 of 1 percent of annual federal budget as implemented over the timeline proposed), they'll know to to blame "evil conservatives" for their predicament.

Having said that, I still am leaning towards a pre-planned (what isn't today, after all?) short sequestration "scare of the sheeple," and then a Hank "Tanks, Atomic Warheads & Martial Law Immediately If TARPv2.0/TALFv2.0/POMO-QE4ever/MaidenLaneREIT Aren't Implemented" Paulson moment, when CONgress (whose members have been actively building their insider-information trades for a while now) relents due to alleged inundation of calls, letters and faxes from panicky constituents (whose paper retirement portfolios get sliced and diced by the Squid & Jamie "I've Got Fuck You Money" Dimon).

kliguy38's picture

The euro is still their target so watch for extend and pretend here for a few more months. The euro needs to be taken out first. 

ActionFive's picture

Date change/delay suspect for use.

Edward Fiatski's picture

Sure feels that way on this vapor volume.

Dog & Pony Show in a Room Full of Mirrors & Smoke, bitchez.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Another great news/good news/bad news is good news economic release:

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index hits highest level in a year.

Sequestration, out!

adr's picture

GM is printing more cars. Pretty much takes care of it.

I studied a lot of WWII propaganda for a few history classes in college. Even the best work of the 1930s pales to a simple economic report of today.

Super Broccoli's picture

thanks to BULLNANKE !

mdtrader's picture

Meanwhile the euro and sterling roll over.

Winston Churchill's picture

If you're not totally confused yet,you are not paying attention.

Dr. Engali's picture

I have one word....Chicago

realtick's picture

'reality notwithstanding" LOL

that would make a great blog name

Yen Cross's picture

   Chicago PMI prints above expectations and markets go negative? Is good news bad news now? Don't worry banksters your koolaid won't be shut off.

   Just like almost every other day since G-20 ended. The $ gets ramped up in the N.Y. am session, by every Central Bankster on planet Earth washing his "hot" money. Rinse repeat. Way to go Ben. You truly are the "Master of Disaster".

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The insanity will continue until morals morale improves.

buzzsaw99's picture

the bureau of fictitious numbers has spoken

Sudden Debt's picture


can't wait to see what's inside....


Edward Fiatski's picture

We'll miss you. :'(

Send it to Ben instead!

Glass Seagull's picture



In unrelated news:  The NY Fed's PMI respondent team was just spot bonused this morning.

ajk24455's picture

Talk about baffle with bullshit, anyone see the CFNAI on Monday?  Complete opposite story.  Chicago is the new Shrodinger cat.

nightshiftsucks's picture

I work in high tech mfg in Silicon valley.We had our hours cut and layoffs at the end of last year,around the end of jan we got our 12 hour shifts back.They said that it would be for a month and now they have been saying most likely through June. Our main market is automotive,GM must be ramping up the channel stuffing.

Oldwood's picture

Its ALL good. Now eat your shit stew and shut up! I think thats what they're trying to say?

MFLTucson's picture

BULLSHIT, not on your life!  This is more propoganda by the masters of deception.