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Extended Claims Jump 8.5% As Initial Claims Continue Sideways Crawl

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Initial claims beat expectations but remain in a narrow 'flat' range for the last year. Non-seasonally-adjusted claims dropped notably to their lowest in 5 months. Since January we have seen multiple estimated states and a lot of choppy noise in the initial claims data. Almost perfectly offsetting this choppiness in the main headline data is the swings in Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) benefits which rose 8.5% or 187k this week. One thing is for sure, the last two months have seen an unprecedented amount of noise in the claims data that we can only put down to seasonally-affected-disorder (or statistical idiocy with 5 sigma swings each week).

 

Initial claims continue to print in a narrow range with the downward trend of 2010 and 2011 having stalled...

 

but along with the crazy swings in the claims data of the last few weeks, EUC data has shifted into new territory for noisiness...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 02/28/2013 - 09:55 | 3285380 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

This is clear evidence that they haven't yet formulated which weather event to blame it on...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 09:59 | 3285390 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The solar panel thing would have totally worked had it not been for all the clouds due to bad weather.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:28 | 3285487 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Well, in februari, there wasn't a tornado. So there wasn't any need for a cleanup so unemployment went up.

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:46 | 3285820 Oleander
Oleander's picture

The snow from Nemo is melting and revealing just what a mess it caused. Many limbs and trees fell and were buried. We will need a team to assess the damage and more teams to organize clean up. Mostly pines went down, that means a lot of brush burning here. More work for fire fighters when the fires get out of control. Thus even more damage that will need to be assessed and repaired. Now if March brings in more rain we will have flooding.  The cycle never ends. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:32 | 3285513 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

thake your pick from sandy to rockey! sandy is still being used by bloomberg.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:39 | 3285535 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Hey rocky, watch us pull a rabbit out of our ass.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:37 | 3285532 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

It's all Bob Woodward's fault.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:52 | 3285591 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

I don't think the strategy of driving a wedge between the administration and the media will succeed.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 12:11 | 3285933 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

This is clear evidence that the New Normal for the United States will be European levels of unemployment, 10% or higher in unmanipulated terms, from here on out.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 09:58 | 3285383 W74
W74's picture

Make sure to sell this May and truly, truly go away.  I'm thinking April actually, though I'm already 60% out.  Yep, I have 60% less in the market today than I did when I was 21.  Also, in today's consumer inflation news: Tea.  Ran out of milk last night so I decided to make tea this morning instead.  I noticed that even the strings are shorter and the paper tab on the far end is a much smaller square than what it used to be.  What does this save, ten thousandths of a penny on every bag?  I'm not crazy go look for yourselves.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:05 | 3285410 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Don't worry ~ Soon you'll be drinking your tea out of an espresso demitasse...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:32 | 3285495 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

barbaric... WHO DO YOU THINK WE ARE?!!??? ANIMALS?!!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:01 | 3285400 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Unemployed HFT algos are now filling out UE and EUC forms online. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:08 | 3285411 moriarty
moriarty's picture

Being a Brit and seeing it as it is played out here I interpret this thus

 

Initial claimant goes up to desk to claim.

 Claimant:         I wish to claim

 Clerk:               if you could not claim would that create an emergency in your household?

 Claimant:         of course it would what a stupid question.

 Clerk:               ok your is an emergency claim sir/madam

 

Et viola initial claims continue to drop.

Or am I missing somthing?

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:22 | 3285460 hapless
hapless's picture

Thank you for explaining that.  I assume that the reduction of emergency claims only requires the denial of same - or am I missing something?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:36 | 3285521 W74
W74's picture

Or more likely like this:

Claimant: I'm unemployed I need some money.

Clerk: Cool, we'll get you 'your' money, but we're really encouraging you to go the "emergency unemployment" route instead of using initial claims.

Claimant: Whats the difference?

Clerk: Blah blah blah.

Claimant: Will the amount be different and will it last as long?

Clerk: No, this one lasts forever and will be get you an even greater amount.

Claimant: Sign me up then, what are you waiting for?!?!?

Clerk: Cool, would you also be interested in Section 8 and an EBT card as well?  We can also sign you up for free daycare for your kids while you "go look" for a job. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:12 | 3285690 moriarty
moriarty's picture

You know your system beter than I. Also keeps the clerk in a job, ring another one up for the Spacing Guild.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:26 | 3285745 conspicio
conspicio's picture

The EUC is only for those who have exhausted all state benefits, which vary by state according to their total unemployment rate (see here: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/euc08.pdf). So, some states have shorter term benefits than others, and Tyler would do well to add a chart on state benefit horizons according to TUR or add one layer additional to the given chart that would assist in clarifying the "noise." Not that this is a bad start, of course.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:11 | 3285425 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Did the Twinkie bakers file their claims yet?  I missed that bump up, or were they adjusted out?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:13 | 3285428 miker
miker's picture

I believe many of these major reports/numbers are being modified per authorization of the President.  Our economic situation is a national emergency and so lots of things are being justified under that context.  Organic job creation isn't out there and businesses continue to pair down in a relentless fashion.  The only thing countering this is more unneeded construction of apartments, offices, etc. that is being funded by ZIRP and QE.  When those projects get done, they will sit empty too.

In spite of their efforts, I do believe economic fundamentals will prevail and we will slump further into depression.  The two numbers that confirm this are the federal deficit (still on track for+1.2 T) and Bernanke's published QE.  Actually, if he increases QE in the future, it may not be published! 

The debt/jobs situation in the US and elsewhere is unprecedented for modern times.  The President will do everything in his power (and then some) to turn it.  What other choice does he have. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:26 | 3285478 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The commerce and labor departments probably have hidden rooms that look like a scene out of George Orwell's classic 1984, where people are incentivized to lie in a way that exonerated the prez and other conspirators.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:14 | 3285436 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

Just the truth trying to get out.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:16 | 3285438 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah but just imagine how bad it would be if Ben wasn't printing trillions so the bankers can trickle on us.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:16 | 3285439 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

noise in the claim data? more like the sound of train wreck! nothing new, we will be at 6% unemployment before you can say, dirty rotten no good scum of the earth trash talking number fudging algo pumping assholes, i think thats it!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:21 | 3285445 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 As usual BLS revised the previous prints downwards.( or upwards since they were negative) I can't wait to hear LIESman bark his way through that GDP revision. Oh wait, yes I can!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:21 | 3285453 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Guy just got canned at my job.  You can add another one for next week.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:22 | 3285457 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Just for a JOKE I looked at CNBS.com and saw 'consumer CONfidence' was on the rise - and then I see that JC Penney is collapsing and Walmart is reporting a dire month.

THIS REALLY IS A HUGE FUCKING JOKE - NORTH KOREA COULDN'T DO IT BETTER

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:35 | 3285526 realtick
Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:44 | 3285558 FecundaGoat
FecundaGoat's picture

That IS ONE GOOD LOOKING chart!!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:45 | 3285564 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Keep printing Bubble Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen,  until we have a real US dollar dump.

Word has it that Bernanke will go from his $85 billion a month to $120 billion a month if nothing is improving.

Keep trashing the US dollar, making the wealthy more wealthier while  squeezing and crushing the other 80%

 

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 10:54 | 3285593 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

This must be Bullish, GOLD dropping like a rock again, Markets are green, day after day, after week.

6 straigh month now.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:28 | 3285746 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Buy the gold.  You are crazy not to jump on it.  The people shorting gold here as as stupid as the Kaminskites who tried to short the S&P after QE3 and 4 were announced.  My thesis is bullish.  This is the best buying opp since 2000. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 11:29 | 3285764 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

The Dems say the sequestration is bad because people will lose their jobs.

However.....

"It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name."  - Nancy Pelosi, when speaking of unemployment benefits.  

 

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