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Sequestration On, Risk Off
The push higher in stocks today peaked as the voting began and now as we receive the 'shocking news' that:
- Senate Lacks Votes to Advance Democratic Sequestration Plan
We see the equity market fading fast - reverting to VWAP first of course. Whocouldanode? What happens next is anyone's guess but FX and bonds sure aren't buying it.
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Imagine the market rally if we could shut the Federal Government down for just one year.
RISK ON this Morning - GOLD down, Risk OFF afternoon - GOLD down again?
What is GOLD then? Some hated Asset which is sold on any accasion?
WTF?
Inflation is low and gold bugs have been holding their precious expecting, any day now, that inflation is going to jet off like a rocket and we will be the new Weimar Republic. Little known fact - except to the historically knowledgeable - it wasn't the Weimar Republic that ushered in the Nazi Regime, but Heinrich Bruning.
If we make the cuts the GOP wants, then we will slide into deflation and the depression will get worse.
What are food and fuel costs in fiat relative to 5, 10, 15 years ago? What's the value of my physical PM holdings relative to 5, 10, 15 years ago? Funny how people will still very willingly provide me with the fruits of their labor for that "relic".
There has been a lot of fear in the market since 9/11 and so there has been a lot of demand for gold, considering it is the fear trade.
Also you are forgetting that GDP has been rising steadily through that time frame, so people have been living a lot better during this time period.
1. GDP is not measured in an absolute term, but a relative one ($).
2. Somehow we count Government spending as a PLUS to GDP. Where does government get money? Oh, they print it? See 1 above.
Thanks for playing Paul.
pods
GDP Relativity:
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/national-debt-really-too-big-183730367.html
because we have to run deficits to print money.
Stop thinking in terms of USD!!!
GDP in terms of Gold rolled in 2000 and continues to fall, S&P as well. GDP in real terms hasn't actually grown in any sustained fashion relative to real measures of value for at least a decade.
http://pricedingold.com/us-gdp/
I've been looking for same chart priced in Silver, Oil and Natural gas as well as a reasonable basket of food prices but can make inferences from other things priced in gold.
http://pricedingold.com/sp-500/
Food prices in gold have fallen 50% over past 20-30 years so perhaps we actually have improved food production. (Quality suffering though imo)
http://pricedingold.com/food/
And FYI college education priced in Gold is back to about the norm.
http://pricedingold.com/college-tuition/
When you stop thinking in FIAT and start thinking about value of something real and imporant vs. something else real and important then and ONLY then can you make reasonable deductions about 'the economy'. Everyone complains Gold is in a bubble. Actually Gold has finally caught up with all the other asset bubbles. If they deflate, gold will deflate with them. If they inflate Gold will inflate with them. Based on the above charts I don't see that the price of Gold is low relative to other measures (i.e. a bargain) It was in the 90's, not now. Silver on the other hand I think IS undervalued relative to historical norms and relative production/consumption basis. In the 90's was waaaay under valued.
Hence I conclude not just from the above but other analysis that we have reached peak growth around 2000 (relative to real measures) and without some serious game changer (in energy or other real goods) as more people are added on this planet they will have 'less' real need goods of value than those who came before them for the same amount of hours worked. Which means in real terms deflation is going on. So far it hasn't hit the average AmeriKans waistline though.
Our worst fears are actually the result of the crimes and depredations committed against us by our own sociopathic and increasingly authoritarian rulers in Washington, and our anger the direct product of the servile and corrupt cheerleading of those abuses of power by spineless and amoral lackies and Quislings such as yourself.
My worst fear is running out of boolits. Guess I'll save the last one for myself.
Why not save the first one for yourself instead?
You didn't answer the question regarding the purchasing power of PM's. Nor did you answer the issue of the cost of essential commodities over the same time period. Living better? So you want to ignore what the average wage has been as well? This is how we give out nobels now, by ignoring things? People are living better? So now living better means even fewer people can afford healthcare and college? Must be my lying eyes again. Halarious, a troll of the highest caliber.
Brilliant. So, you are saying that the only way to economic paradise is to keep spending 50% more than we take in, or raise taxes?
I think I will go tell my boss that my 6000 square foot house, three SUV payments, plus student loans and credit card debt are costing more than I make, and it is his responsibility to increase my pay so that I can succeed.
Dude, GOLD preforming well in both deflation and inflation invironment. In the great Depression
Gold stocks trippled while general stock market loss 40%+..
That is because it is the fear trade.
Fear trade meaning you moneychangers will FEAR for your life if people see the value of gold while holding a handful of colored pieces of linen.
pods
C'mon Dr. Redneck Fischer for Prosperity you can do better than that.
You foolishly compute inflation based upon the planet Earth's relative position around the Sun.
There is nothing magical about the time frame of 1 year, other than it marks the copletion of another lap.
But rest assured, an ounce of gold or silver will have gained a greater amount of purchasing power than an ounce of $100 bills will the next time we have a real balanced budget.
Yeah and he was some idiot ivy league professor like you!
blurred vision.
Retirement Off!!
Imagine the hunger if we shut the Federal Government down or just one year.
I can't imagine. Care to describe it?
Millions of jobs would be lost and their revenue would dry up, the productivity from the services provided from the government would crush GDP; we would be thrown into total chaos as there would be no police officers to fight crime, no fire fighters to extinguish burning buildings, no road crews to fix the streets. The U.S.A would collapse.
Keynesianism would collapse, which is what you really fear.
Horseshit.
Millions of government jobs will be lost, eliminating those ineffective, productiviity draining positions, leaving the country in a stronger position. Just the mere halt in regulatory growth will be enough to spur the real US economy into a sustainable recovery.
It sounds like pre-1900, but with iPhones.
Hunger only for those depending on govt.
I would be left with more money, since I won't be forced to pay any taxes. I don't mind politicians losing their jobs.
Government dependents could use some hunger - go look around at a Walmart on the first of the month.
Mr. Krugman,
With all due respect, there would be plenty of people to eat.
Regarding sequestration, a couple of observations from someone who worked in government budget and finance for 30 years.
1) Some portion of the budget cut was covered in Q4 of federal fiscal year 2012 by spending surplus budget authority in anticipation of the fiscal cliff. (see ZH chart showing positive government contribution to GDP in Q4 2012)
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013...
2) Likewise some portion of the budget cut will be covered by the surplus budget authority that otherwise would have been available at the end of the current fiscal year.
3) Some portion of the budget cut has already been made by cautious managers in the first 5 months of the current FFY. (again see link above)
4) Some portion of the budget cut will come from appropriations and accounts that have no real dollar impact on spending levels of respective agencies. Due to the vagaries of governmental budget processes, there are more of these than you would think.
There almost always are budget authority surpluses within various governmental accounts. Some more than others obviously and an across the board cut will cause problems. However with flexibility, the percentage reductions will be far less painful than many think.
As a general observation, government agency budget cuts of 2% to 3% can be made without much real pain. Since, unlike state and local governments, the federal government has not really had to go through the exercise of cutting the budget excesses that "naturally" grow over time, they might actually be able to cut an even higher percentage before any real economic pain is felt.
I agree that, but for deficit spending and QE, the economy is in a depression. If it slides back to negative growth in the next quarter or two, sequestration will have some effect, but the real culprits will more likely be elimination of the payroll tax credit ($120 billion) and higher fuel prices ($! billion per penny increase).
"positive government contribution to GDP in Q3 2012, which is Q4 of FFY 2012."
Let it collapse so we can hang every banker and economist by their bollocks by piano wire from the nearest street light.
Yeah right, we need a babysitter because people are too violent and stupid to take care of themselves, speak for yourself.
Fat bureaucrats and parasites cut off from mooching. Senators and representatives forced to get real jobs. No dronings of brown people. Citizens keeping the money they earn.
Oh, the humanity.
I get shivers just thinkin' of it...
God forbid individuals provide for themselves. Come to think of it, you are a rather plump motherfucker, roasted pig anyone?
OT? - The Fed's March purchase operations schedule is out...another $45B in treasury securities...
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Fuck you Bernanke.
I would be equally happy if they shut down 5 or so federal departments permanently.
That 1/3 of 1% of the Annual Federal Budget (sequestration amount as implemented upon timeline) will be the DEATH OF US ALL!
RUN!!!!
HOLD ME, HANK "Look you Congressional Puppets, I've Got 200 Million in Tax Exempt Stock Options Vested, so Pass TARP/TALF/QE4ever-POMO Now Bitchez" PAULSON!!!!
Dude, we're operating here at so low margins, that even the 10-yr UST at 1.889% is Too Damn High. :P
Hank the TANK bitchez!
But NOBODY beats 'Frank the Tank'...
[Voiceover.] Dear Mitch, if you're holding this letter you already know. The house has been boarded up. The doors. The windows. Everything. We're at the Comfort Inn. Room 112. I love you. Frank
You know I was thinking we could go back home...have some dinner and pop in the Sisqo CD...no? Weren't thinking that? Ok.
[Sitting naked in the car.] Hey honey! Do you think KFC's still open?
[Funnels a beer.] Fill it up again! Fill it up again! Once it hits your lips, it's so good!
It's UNIMAGINABLE that there's yet to be a "Frank the Tank" username/avatar on ZH...
I'm surprised there's no "Bernank the Tank."
INSPIRED ENTRY!... But ~ I'd go with "Frank the Tank" unless you had a burning passion & desire to become a junk magnet...
Walk it off big guy.
Whocouldanode...indeed. The House, after all, has adjourned.
Reason and common sense left the building with Elvis. Just the clowns left to mop the floor.
Grillo up, clowns
Grillo/Sarducci NOW
Love ya, Boner.
Boner just gave the democrats the best 3 inches they've ever had....... driving that bus....bend over and take it...
Dive! Dive! 30-degree down bubble!
Who is this VWAP and why was he invited to the party?
/sarc
Veers Where Algos Prefer , Value Where Algos Profit, etc. etc.
It saddens me to say this but America really is fucked. What a shame the country was pretty much the last beacon of hope in a world gone mad.
Sad,yes.But it's the last pesky nation that needs to conform.
"It saddens me to say this but America really is fucked."
The big picture is shaping up to be worse than you think.:
http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2013/02/26/russia-is-preparing-to-atta...
Is this bullish, or bearish?
The long and short of it is, if this all happens, there will not be much to profit from. This is a cycle of destruction that as always and well planed to do, takes everyone and everything down with it. There will be no winners in the next world scene changes if something does not stop it all. Only the united people can change this. Iceland has shown the way. Everybody is kicking the banksters from all directions as it is fast falling. The question still remains, will it take mankind down with it?
Live in quality one day at a time...and always follow your heart.
Any more suckers left on this planet? Go ahead, BTFD.
I'm long buttplugs for my future clients.
Oh!
Me me me me
Where do I sign up?
The End is Near.........
'Girls Gone Wild' files for Bankruptcy
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/joe-francis-girls-gone-wild-425226
When you can't even make a buck off girls showing their tatas, it's time to throw in the towel.
we close on the highs. break out the bubbly.
"If I would have known it was going to be this kind of party I would have stuck my dick in the mashed potato's".
fonz, we gotta have a little talk...
Fucking completely corrupt fucking global circle jerk. Put a fucking shiny new fucking Chevy Volt up the ass of every one of these corrupt and incompetent fucking pricks and charge fucking admission to watch. Detriot will be the fucking richest city in 1 fucking week. That's my fucking recovery plan.
Fuck you CONgress, obama, Fed, wall street, and all you other fucking elitist fucking fiat dry humping fucking shit eaters. Fucking die you motherfuckers.
Will someone please get LongSoupLine a word cloud? :)
<Ain't she purdy?>
http://oi46.tinypic.com/euf3h3.jpg
Mathematical equation formula/version here:
~~~
http://www.wolframalpha.com/
Tabula rasa.
It's even funnier than I thought it would be seeing it in pictures. :)
15 f-bombs...about the norm :)
Bravo mate! Do you have a website? www.fuckzionists.com blog spot
I fear that Joseph Tainter will be proven correct as the system lacks the energy (part of which comes from the people's will or effort) to continue supporting the absurd.
cant wait to hear obama's shuckin and jivin 'soooo aaaaaa thissaaaa meat cleaver, folks, ordinary folks, gettin butchered! congress has to do its job! i've done my job, but the republicans want to extend tax breaks for the wealthiest, instead of allowing them to pay their fair share! i tell ya, i just cant get these guys to compromise!'
hate him so much
Bernanke could wipe out all of the shorts RIGHT NOW with his Majic Wand, but then it would just hasten the collapse, bitchez.
Just tax the Fed, however many trillions in US debt the Fed holds is what you hit Bernanke with.
I recall not too long ago when the market was called a discount mechanism ...
And the Future Has Been Discounted, lemme tell ya'
THis is so very scary indeed and the Sunshine foundation is right, Congress needs a bigger brain, bring back that office of Technology Assessment.
If you want some flawed data entertainment while we wait..and this so bad, you can get an appointment with Michael Jacksons's old doctor...oh so bad, these Doctor rating pages don't update...his page is down and this crap is so flawed...and they probbably scraped a profile off me while I was linked to their pages to do the post.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2013/02/flawed-data-with-physician-and-ho...
Data selling with garbage like this around hurt the economy too, consumers get scewed again while data sellers make billion in profit and so we have these digital illiterates ready to shut the door on all of us. It's going to be a dangerous place at some point in time I might think? Scares me.
holy shit, anyone just catch the fb ramp up out of nowhere?
Stop asking questions. This is a free, well functioning market place.
The real decision will come after the close.
SEE YOU TOMORROW. LOL
Nah, I'm 23/5 kind of guy.
Just watching real time quotes for XLF...too funny. It is sitting on unchanged, but there is obviously unlimited buy orders to stop it falling negative for the day! Cannot close below opening!!!!!!!!!!
We've hit an iceberg, captain. :)
Juicy bull stops all around the current levels.
FULL STEAM AHEAD!
snp crashing.
I haven't seen a finish like that.....ever?
wtf?
The last 12 minutes it tanked hard.
That was a sanctioned freefall.
tomorrow should be interesting.
might buy some spxu ah.
the s&p was a rebalancing at the end
Not even the statist trash want the statist trash plan...
Can we just have a quite day for a change?
FX buys it fine - as per Forex Kong (this guy is absolutely brilliant) USD is completely overbought, and JPY is right on track for further downside....hence safe havens being sold. People watching EUR/USD as any indication of what the dollar is actually doing need their heads examined.
Dem sequester plan sucks. Bullish.
CBO also said today that the plan would ADD 8.2 billion to the deficit over the next ten years. Now thats what I'm talkin about a deficit reduction bill that actually raises the deficit.......... Fucking brilliant!
HAPPY SEQUESTRATION EVE BITCHES!
At any given time The Bernack could have stopped the sell off. He could have put more bids in or he could have frozen trades through the SEC. They've been doing it for 4 1/2 years now........ they need the sell off to scare the sheeple so the corrupt politicians can finish their Agenda 21 communist crap.