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You Rarely Know You're In A Recession Until It's Too Late

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Whether or not you believe it would have made a difference to 'know' or not, the facts are that over the course of US economic history, you rarely know you're in a recession until long after it starts. Would you still chase day after day? Could you stand to watch the greater fools buying in the belief they are not the patsy? The following six facts might put things into perspective...

 

Via ECRI,

1) Think back to 2008, a couple of days before the Lehman failure. Looking at the data in hand, you would see GDP growth at about 1% in Q1 and 3% in Q2. More specifically, Q2 GDP growth had just been revised up on August 28 from 1.9% to 3.3%, sparking a 212-point Dow rally that day. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/business/29econ.html?_r=0

 

2) In March 2001, 95% of economists thought there would not be a recession, but one had already begun.

 

3) No economist predicted the 1990-91 recession beforehand.

 

4) Hardly any economists recognized the severe 1973-75 recession until almost a year after it started. Indeed, that recession began with the ISM at 68.1, and payroll jobs growth did not turn negative for eight months.

 

5) In 1970, unaware that the economy was nine months into recession, none other than Paul Samuelson said that the NBER had worked itself out of a job, meaning that improved policy expertise had made recessions very unlikely.

 

6) In three of the last 15 recessions - specifically, in 1980, 1945, and 1926-27 during the Roaring Twenties - stock prices remained in a cyclical upturn.

 

 

(h/t @GreekFire23)

 


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Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

ECRI data = Thursday humor

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

seems "dick the downvoter" has visited this thread.....sorry boys.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Paul Krugman and MDB are taking turns with the same ip address? 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

In other words, decades of economic manipulation are about to end in a spectacular crash, and we all get to ride in the back!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey!  I´ve been down here in Peru for almost a day now.  Did Squestration put America into recession yet?

(Keyboard differences making me go crazy here...)

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

There are riots and fires everywhere!  ;

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:46 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Never overestimate the power of false hope, because you'll eventually lose everything:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/01/fate-of-union-iii-audacity-...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

We are in a recovery right?

Just walk around, look around.. Not too hard to see whats going on

Layoff/Closing List

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

-

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:12 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"You Rarely Know You're In A Recession [Or A Depression] Until It's Too Late"

 

Damn skippy

[W]ithout exception, throughout history, the masses do not understand there is a crisis until well after it has already begun, and they've already committed to many purchases, indebtedness and other forms of dis-savings & inefficient expenditures that they wouldn't have committed to or made had they known accurate information sooner.

 

Hence, the "confidence fairy," which governmental employees, politicians and business spokespeople all actively perpetuate in their own methods and by various tactics, is a potent serial & mass killer of efficient markets and rational economic behavior (as it severely distorts essential economic information that is relied upon by economic and market participants).

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 08:11 | Link to Comment ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

Green shoots baby!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:33 | Link to Comment pipelayer
pipelayer's picture

@spirit of truth.....you are correct about the end times, but slightly off target on the players. The harlot and babylon the great comprises all false religion who have lead the nations, the beast, in the slaughter of the saints The war of the great day of the Almighty is the Kingdom of God, a real government, against ALL the nations to vindicate Gods sovereignty, or his right to rule. Keep seeking the truth and you will find it.....look to the scriptures

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:41 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

LOL,

 

Sorry dude but your sky wizard stories are just part of the matrix of control.

Two things about religion:

1) Pure arrogance that humans think that they KNOW the mind of God (creator of the infinite universe) and that this God looks just like us (and male to boot... because he needs to have a dick...)

2) That such a being would seek an "end times" battle between good and evil (both of which would be aspects of said God as "he" created all).  See point one about arrogance...

 

there is a whole lot more but I shant discuss it here.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 05:59 | Link to Comment pipelayer
pipelayer's picture

If you are truly a thinking man, you would reason that it is mathematically impossible for there to be anything other than a master creator. You cannot possibly come to the conclusion that chance brought us here. Unless of course what you accuse me of is what you really are. You have drawn wrong conclusions because you lack knowledge and wisdom provided in the scriptures, The Bible does provide responses to what you say. Go read it ... Then you you might have the standing to attempt to remove the obstruction in my eye.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

I have read the bible and I do not discount the possibility or the probability of a master creator.  The bible is a fantasy book of a stone and bronze age people trying to make sense of an INFINITE universe, which was, and still is, far beyond their/our ability to comprehend.

The point of religion is control of people.  This is the primary reason "gods" look just like the human masters of the religion.  Ever ask yourself why Jesus is depicted as a white man? 

Why do religions put so much emphasis on faith? - uhg, this is a vast conversation and this forum is not the best place to have it.  I'd gladly have you over for a glass of wine or beer for a discussion.

However my lens on religion is arrogance:  to claim "true" knowledge of the mind of an infinte being is pure, unadulterated arrogance, which is a deadly sin in your scriptures btw... some irony there ;)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:05 | Link to Comment pipelayer
pipelayer's picture

My dear Terminus, in Matthew 14:13' Jesus relays a scripture form the book of Isiaiah...by hearing you will hear, but by no means get the sense of it, and looking you will look but by no means see. The point is, you may have read a few Bible passages, but you failed to gain knowledge and wisdom. You see, anyone who has understanding of the Bible account can easily recognize that you do not know what you are talking about. Now I want you to go to 2 Corinthians 4:3-4 as it is most important you removed the vail from your eyes. You and I have come to this crossroad for a reason. The Bible is the word of God. Really Terminus, if you believe in a master created, do you reason that he would not want to communicate with his grand creation.? Forget all this arrogance stuff it leads you away from the good news of the Kingdom.......I'll take you up on that beer.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 06:00 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

The Author creates both protaganists and antogonists.  Tis all part of a good story.  What's key and true is the MORAL OF THE STORY. Do you get it?  Most here obviously do not.

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/12/gods-love-story.html

And that's why I'm vilified at ZH, which is actually a good sign I'm on the right track.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 06:17 | Link to Comment pipelayer
pipelayer's picture

Most here obviously do not get it....yes sot, you are right, the road is narrow

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 06:56 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Your 'God' is arrogant enough to believe 'he' created everything, but is wrong...

 

I have sent this (to you) because you inquire about the reality of the authorities[archons].

 

Their chief is blind; because of his power and his ignorance and his arrogance he said, with his power, "It is I who am God; there is none apart from me." When he said this, he sinned against the entirety. And this speech got up to incorruptibility; then there was a voice that came forth from incorruptibility, saying, "You are mistaken, Samael" - which is, "god of the blind."

 

His thoughts became blind. And, having expelled his power - that is, the blasphemy he had spoken - he pursued it down to chaos and the abyss, his mother, at the instigation of Pistis Sophia. And she established each of his offspring in conformity with its power - after the pattern of the realms that are above, for by starting from the invisible world the visible world was invented.

 

From:

The Hypostasis of the Archons
Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:26 | Link to Comment pipelayer
pipelayer's picture

Colossians 2:8.....look out, perhaps there may be someone who will carry you off as his prey thru the philosophy and empty deception according to the traditions of men, according to the elementary things of the world and not according to Christ.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:41 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

Yes it's terriible here, german shepherds sleeping with women, pedophiles runnng Boy Scout troops, the government is plotting mass murder......wait, check that, everything is "normal" here in the U.S.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

TSA just went on strike, you won't be able to fly back home.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:50 | Link to Comment El Crusty
El Crusty's picture

i would just stay in Peru if i were in your shoes. Steven Tyler only snorted half of Peru, the glass is half full buddy!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:53 | Link to Comment SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

....psssst... that last depression stuck with us....

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:45 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

my sister arrived in Peru yesterday too, foreign exchange, belgian chick, first name's "Fanny", slap her in the back of the head for me would you ?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:26 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Xibalba... weird shit, WHO would junk you? Ok MDB and Krugman would account for two but four?????

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

dickless

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment jballz
jballz's picture

I junk all of Francis comments. He is kind of a nazi if you haven't noticed. Anyway he hates jews. I am a jew. I probably have enough in my wallet to buy the trailer Francis lives in. Sometimes I get annoyed by the adl and all that whining from Jews. Then guys like Francis remind me. Francis would like to put me in the oven himself, because of being born.

So Francis is the enemy. Was not my choice, was his. Francis will lose, because he is dumb, there are dumb Jews too but rarely so dumb as Francis. He just wishes he could be smart enough to get the Jews into the ovens. And he will be angry all his life at those who are his betters, who own his meager existence, and must control him like a rabid animal, lest he ever get the power to live out his murderous dreams.

Self fulfilling hatred, goyim bitchez.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I know a few honest Jews, I know a lot more that would put their own mother in the oven if it meant making an extra buck.

I've worked for a Jew that knowingly sold a defective product meant for children because he wanted to save $.02 on a bolt assembly. When I objected and spec'd the proper bolt, I was called into his office and reamed a new asshole. I told him to fire me because I was not going to be held responsible if a kid dies. So he fired me and he used an even cheaper bolt, China doesn't care they use whatever you spec. You may have heard of baby swings that collapsed and crushed kids. Well this jew made one of them. When his company was sued he just declared bankruptcy and never paid the settlement. The jew lawyers got paid a couple million though. Parents whose children became paralyzed probably never knew that their kid was maimed because a Jew wanted to save a few pennies.

I wish that was the only story I have but I can go on and on.

Are there non jew CEO scumbags, yes. The problem is the percentage of times I and people I know have been screwed over by jews is far too high to be a coincendence considering their percentage of the population.

Betters? Ha. Cheating to win and immorality is not betterment. Greater fortune may be a sign of prominence to some. But fortune is meaningless when those you screwed come looking for blood.

Of course calling these people Jews is actualy wrong since most of them have no lineage to Jerusalem. They are converted Baltic trash, and if you've been to that area you know fucking people over for money has been a hallmark trait of them since the beginning.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:58 | Link to Comment jballz
jballz's picture

 

What the fuck does this probably bullshit story have to do with the guy being a Jew?

You know what?

I'm not even a Jew. I'm just a wasp asshole. Same as you wasp assholes. I'm a dirty goddam liar and NOT a jew!

 

I think the mistake you are all making is attempting to subdivide the human race along any lines of good/bad.

You are all fucking assholes. You blame the Jews to give cover to the non-Jew assholes. I.e. YOU.

 

whine on, emo hater bitchez. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:55 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

I try always to read the posts from Francis Sawyer as he is one of the more important and significant contributors to Zero Hedge. And for the life of me, I don’t remember any mention of ovens.

Perhaps you are too focused on denying the racial aspects of American politics. To set the record straight, the mention of Jews and their influence in the American government is one of the most appropriate subjects of our era. And the reason for this is the complete control now of the printing, issuing and identification of value of the nation’s currency that is in the hands of a few families who operate the central bank.

These families are Jewish.

That is a significant news item.  That is a significant development because control of the fiat currency has progressed into control of all the major levers of government: the congressional committees, the executive branch of the government, the courts, and, of course, the major media supporting these developments.

As a Jew you are aware, of course, of the tremendous representation of Jews in all of these critical areas. You may be upset sometimes with their actions but how can you suggest that this information should be silenced and forced into the shadows through intimidation? There’s scarcely enough material, especially now, on just who holds the leverage in this tyrannical government.

Would you silence even that?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:57 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

jews dont see the problem because they falsely feel like its their team, fucking over the world

with the fiat central banking system. the funny thing is the joke is on them, there's a team alright,

and they make tens of millions a year, and 99.999% of jews are not on that team.

they just have to take the daily distain from everyone around the world, who has been taking

it in the ass from the team they are not even on.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Every nation has been hijacked and inflitrated by the elite...

.

And almost all the people in those nations have been poisoned and brainwashed.

.

I dont blame a specific race or group of people... i blame those bloodline(s) that think its their divine right to rule over us 'commoners' - by ANY means neccessary.

.

'They' are no different then you and I...we have the power as well - its just that our membership is too thin.

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:48 | Link to Comment Scary Squirrel
Scary Squirrel's picture

Oo-er: Socialism.  Better unionise...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

  "And he will be angry all his life at those who are his betters, who own his meager existence, and must control him like a rabid animal, lest he ever get the power to live out his murderous dreams"

~~~

please continue... After all ~ it's much better hearing 'the truth' STRAIGHT FROM THE SOURCE than listening to the 2 bit comedy routines of francis_sawyer...

~~~

@JR

So as to somewhat substantiate your comment on 'ovens' ~ Here is a link to my latest entry in that realm...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-28/icahn-thanks-ackman-very-big-mistakes#comment-3288505

Which is why... I'd also advocate an END TO CENTRAL BANKS around the globe [which ~ by behaviour are presently RISKING that the same unfortunate series events might re-occur]...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:30 | Link to Comment jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Jeez, what rock did you crawl out from under? I don't hate anyone, but I think you're a twat.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:37 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

A dick is a dick is a dick and religion plays no part.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:34 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm kind of a dumb fuck... Notwithstanding ~ I have a question...

~~~

If I don't believe in RELIGION ~ Can I still be considered an 'anti semite'?...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:29 | Link to Comment jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

anti-theosophyte?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

"Anti the phosphite" wha?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

The definition of an anti semite is anyone who disagrees with any Jew anywhere in the world about anything.

This means everyone is an anti semite including all Jews. Since it is impossible for everyone to agree with everyone else about everything.

If you talk back, you're a Nazi.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Before I make my final decision, does this... in any way... impact my getting to sleep with 72 virgins upon reaching Elysium...

~~~

It's IMPORTANT!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Ha ha ha ha ha what virgins? You can worship the Devil but you can't trust him.

Any religion that tells you to murder your own children and call it honor killing doesn't come from God,  it comes from the Devil.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:43 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Here's where it gets dicey... I've stated that I don't believe in RELIGIONS... But I DO have faith that GOD EXISTS... I don't see GOD as a separate entity [as a 'monotheist', I suppose, would]... But I believe that GOD IS ALL OF US TOGETHER...

~~~

Which, I suppose, accounts for the DEVIL INSIDE...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:51 | Link to Comment AssFire
Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:57 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@Assfire

~~~

C'Mon Man!... I was hopin for some shit like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U__m4N7Ml30

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:06 | Link to Comment AssFire
AssFire's picture

no fuckin way...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:08 | Link to Comment AssFire
AssFire's picture

LOL... Screaming for Vengeance tour

I attendend the Dallas concert 1983-84?  that had to be stopped after the spectators (us dopesmokers) set so many trash fires under seats at reunion arena- the fire marshals shut it down ...Wow the colors burning off those blue and green plastic chairs did etch themselves in my mind.

 

Awesome video.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 07:54 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

you are a pantheist then.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:34 | Link to Comment exgop
exgop's picture

You Jews certainly have ugly women

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 07:54 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

that's coz of inbreeding.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:38 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

First mention of jews or ovens in the post is yours jballz.  Why?  So you can put Francis in his place?  By making cutdown speculations about where he dwells?

Snore...Quit preeening like a bitch -- please?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:33 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Jballz, I junked you because you are, kind of, a state worshipping apologist.  You ok with that and I want no one to go into oven... Well apart from all the central bankers, corzine et.al, krugman, etc... hmmmmmm gonna need a bigger oven.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:14 | Link to Comment rotagen
rotagen's picture

Debt money is not real money, there's something you rarely know.  Bitcoin bitches.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Do stocks have to collapse if there is a recession ? I dont why that would happen. After all.....

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Since the goal has apparently been to morph the market into The Economy in order to create the illusion of a recovery, stocks likely have to collapse for them to admit there's a recession.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

This "recession" is getting worse when you see "Girls Gone Wild" go bankrupt:

 

"Girls Gone Wild, founded by Joe Francis, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for the soft-core porn business...."

 

http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/girls-gone-wild-files-bankruptcy-23...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

There can't be a recession if the stock market is up. Therefore, all you need to do to prevent a recession, is find some way to juice up the stock market.

Also known as, if you can't cure the patient, touch up the x rays.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:57 | Link to Comment clara-to-market
clara-to-market's picture

Do you think Ben Bernanke likes pumpkin pie?

I enjoy pumpkin pie.

Just wondering.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/thursday_28.html

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

I like pumpkin pie with whipped cream.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Or maybe they couldn't hide it anymore and finally called it a recession.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:59 | Link to Comment MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Bold call by Acthutan (think that's correct) - maybe he's correct.....

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:23 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Were not in a recession, were in a full blown depression.

 

http://jimrickards.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

AAA-Gas prices have risen faster than ever to start 2013.

Hey we on the up and up son. Feels good.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment localsavage
localsavage's picture

Recession???        DOW 20K.....Fuck you Ben

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

<---we are in a recession already

<---MillionDollarBonus is right, it's a recovery!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Regardless of what the NBER and other [non] ivy-league pundits has to say, the financial crisis and subsequent great recession never ended-- like many here have said time and time again.

I suppose one thing that needs greater clarification (outside of the obvious liquidity vs solvency debate) is what the financial crisis really is: a world monetary/financial system that is broken. Every attempt to frankenstein this recovery through liquidity just made the monster even more dangerous. Nothing has been fixed or remedied regarding the true financial crisis.

Edit: balance sheets of central banks have only shifted the risk and not removed it and all we got from trillions of liquidity pumping was world GDP that can't even keep the lights on.

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:22 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Agreed.

Recession? Ongoing depression.

Baltic Dry Index: Record high - May 20, 2008 @ 11,793 points. By December 5, 2008 the index fell 94% to 663 points. New multi-decade low just last year at this time February 3, 2012 @ 647 points. At present is barely limping along at about 750 points. This is an economic leading indicator.

HARPEX Index; High - 1,376 points in 2007. Low - 275 points - 2009. The HARPEX tracks containers freight and is a current economic activity indicator. At present it also is limping along at 372 points.

These indices at such long low levels of activity point to an ongoing international trade disruption, that is not just a downturn/recession, but rather an ongoing/deepening depression.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:33 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ameru is doing its part to keep container shipping going, we have a 40 ft container almost FULL of Chinese bearings & hub assemblies, may already pre-sold.

For now, Peru^s (keyboard is different here, grrr...) economy is humming along just fine, for now anyway.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:52 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

They were just late to the credit bubble party...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:58 | Link to Comment PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

Economists seemingly have an equally difficult time calling the end of recessions considering we've been in "recovery" for years already.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment LibertarianX
LibertarianX's picture

When do you know you are in a depression?

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

When Doktherr Paul Krugman says the Fed is not printing *enough* FRNs.....you know you're in a depression.

When your children move back home.....you know you're in a depression. 

When silver and gold demand rises up and down the chain but is vilified by the MSM.....you know you're in a depression. 

When horse meat *surprises* the food chain.....you know you're in a depression. 

When Grannie buys that pet food horse meat - for herself.....you know you're in a depression. 

 

How's that for starters..?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

Nice work. Of course that doesn't happen to bankers or gubmint workers....yet. Once it actually affects them (doubtful), then it's officially a "depression". Fuckers.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:40 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

"When do you know you are in a depression?"

 

When people start jumping out windows on Wall Street?........  it's only a DEPRESSION when the fat cats are no longer making money,   Otherwise, it doesn't seem to matter what's happening to the 99%

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

When your neighbor loses his job... it's a recession.

When you lose your job... it's a depression.

When Obama loses his job.... it's a recovery.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 08:44 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

i wish it was that simple.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:15 | Link to Comment WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

When officials & media keep parroting a recovery & no inflation as food stamp usage isincreasing, not jobs forthcoming, along with food & fuel prices rising.

It has a tendency to make one feel lower than whale shit. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:08 | Link to Comment El Crusty
El Crusty's picture

" When do you know you are in a depression?"

the best leading economic indicator- Aldi's. go there on a saturday or sunday, if the parking lot is half full- recession. if the parking lot is at least 3/4 full- depression

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:10 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Classic definition of an economic Depression is a 10% drop in GDP and/or 2 years of bad recession.  

 

Shadowstat's data indicate that in real terms: GDP has been negative since 2006, inflation is 9%, and real unemployment is 22%. So we're there already. Recovery rhetoric by Keynesian PhDs is part of the denial masquarade. 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:47 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The official bean counters already know a recession is underway, and the legislative branch has been alerted.  All this drivel about a sequester is window dressing for the blame-game that will ensue when the official recession announcement is made.  It's just blame shifting political garbage.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:33 | Link to Comment Demologos
Demologos's picture

I was going to comment here, but you upthread guys beat me to all of the good comments I was thinking of, including citing Shadowstats.  So all I can say is that without Glass-Steagall, we are all well and truly "scroomed" (a "sniglet" comprised of the words screwed and doomed, courtesy of Tyler Durden).  The banksters are at their weakest point and can be knocked over with a feather.  That feather is Glass-Steagall.

Proof of this is that during the recent Senate hearings, the senators engaged in all sorts of whiney begging for the Chairsatan to do something.  All of them studiously avoided the use of the words "Glass-Steagall" as if it is an illegal witch's curse.  The Chairsatan was the only person in the hearings to utter the words, of course while claiming that Glass-Steagall is not the solution.  All I need to know is that if the words "Glass-Steagall" strike fear in the Banksters, then it is the correct course of action.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:53 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

There was a guy used to comment here - I forget his name, jc something I think - who used to end every comment with "Glass-Steagall". He don't comment so much anymore and it's too bad.

Well, it was a great victory for the banksters when Glass-Steagall was finally defeated.

(Truth: Last night I said "Glass-Steagall...Glass-Steagall...Glass-Steagall" while staring into the bafroom mirror and who appeared bobbing around in my terlet but Robert Rubin!)

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

You Rarely Know You're In A Recession Until It's Too Late

Ah....... got news for you, we are in a FUCKING depression.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

Stock Markets near all time highs.  Nothing to see here...........move along

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

That little blip on the radar of .1% for Q4 is going to turn into real negative print for Q1 and my guess another for Q2.

Then we "officially" be in a recession.

Should be fun.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

  <---  we are still in a Depression.

  <----  MDB real name is Krugman,Paul.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

If you need PERFECT evidence of what Tyler just said, about recognizing when a recession begins...just click here:

http://www.ceridianindex.com/index.php

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Note: The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index has not published its results since May of last year 2012.

What do they know that they have been told to keep quiet about? Hmmm...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Interesting.  I did not notice, as I was posting it for the chart effect at the onset of the 2008 recession.  Why, indeed, have they stopped publishing their results?  I shall endeavor to find out.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

It would seem that the Cerdian Pulse of Commerce Index has been halted for reasons of....cost.  In communicating with Cerdian, they are currently guaging public interest in offering it as a paid service.

Mystery solved.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:35 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Could that be the same "cost" cited by Obama, on why he would not send another carrier group to the Gulf?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:39 | Link to Comment moroots
moroots's picture

Maybe the Obozo just threatened to have the SEC "double check" their paperwork, a la Egan Jones

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 02:56 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Obozo blamed the sequester cuts for lack of funds.

Because he couldn't get his way. Deflect attention.

False flag. The cuts are so small as to not matter, when thinking of the BIG picture.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:22 | Link to Comment Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

OK, For all the Sheeple out there, let's allow this to sink in:

"One body in charge of determining the health of the economy (i.e. the Pulse of Commerce), has been shuttered because of cost". They couldn't find the funds out of 3+ TRILLION in spending. Really???? Yet AF one, presidential T & E, and Congressional salaries remain intact? Americans are more ignorant and clueless than anyone else on the planet.

IF ANYONE out there still believes Obama and Congress are not totally sociopathic and evil, please step forward.

Marge.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

No no...you have misunderstood.  Ceridian is a data processing and human resources company...not a govt. agency.  The Pulse of Commerce Index is a statistical data set they have managed based on a diesel fuel purchases surveys across the country.  That they are considering to offer it as a paid service is indication that they no longer wanted to pay to collect and assess the data without compensation...and therefore they have stopped doing so.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

today I had a collegue complaining to me about silly stuff (we where bored as hell and didn't really work today) and we where talking about Caterpillar throwing out 1600 people and foodprices that are going nuts ....

So I asked him, do you know why foodprices and unemployment are linked in Europe?
He didn't have a clue so I explained him that the higher unemployment is, the lesser taxes are collected and the more benifits are paid. So countries run out of money and loand more money which is printed.
Really... printing money... like that... he just couldn't believe it so..l it couldn't be true.

People always need more to buy the same. So they don't want to see a recession happening. Because... it.... doesn't fit into their plan... to retire early....

I also already stopped trying to convince people to buy gold and silver... they just don't grasp it. Utopia can't end because they didn't get their fair share yet... but... what is everybody's fair share?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

"(we where bored as hell and didn't really work today)"

I see you are from France.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

nop, manager :)
I'm getting paid to talk :)

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"Working" is WAY over-hyped...  If you are semi-retired!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:45 | Link to Comment jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

I've been semi 'retireded' my whole life

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

What do you manage, a restroom?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

But joe6p sees wages are up and he has a new car with Bluetooth and traction control on 2% finance and he's now also a property investor, after the seminar he went to last year. He will now retire with 10 houses in 10 years and live on his own island next to Richard Branson.

Things are booming what could possibly go wrong???

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:37 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

What is everybody's fair share? Equal portions of what you produced.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

I gave up trying to convince people too but a millionaire co-worker was complaining that the markets are all whacky and he pulled his money out of it, I told him to buy PMs ... he can't bring himself to do so...  I give up again.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

It's a lot like stepping in dog shit..............

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

no big deal, just tighten up on those market circuit breakers.  maybe only allow a 0.5% drop each day.  slow motion death is more dramatic. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

7) Currency Wars, Trade Wars then World Wars. 

"When all else fails, they take you to War." -Gerald Celente

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Iran.This summer.

Then a very long winter.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:39 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

War with Iran? The US just confirmed Chuck Hagel for SecDef and John Heinz-Kerry for SecState. The US is more likely to go to war with Israel than Iran with these two in power.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

"The US is more likely to go to war with Israel than Iran with these two in power."

From your lips to God's ears.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:19 | Link to Comment fudge
fudge's picture

" War with Iran "

 

Every time I read this shit I laugh ... it's not going to happen.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

How about if we send in a seal team to smash all their windows?

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:49 | Link to Comment fudge
fudge's picture

Request from Christie's and Sotheby's --- Please don't damage the Picassos when you break the glass ;)

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment nofluer
nofluer's picture

That's one way to start a recovery...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Lol.  Then the seal team would have to be silenced with an accidental helicopter crash a few months later to keep them from possibly letting on that they didn't really smash all those windows.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

NEVER undersetimate the stupidity -  or desperation - of those in power when their goal is to hold onto that power. 

Iran is the line in the sand.  The neo-cons have been pushing for war on a grand scale in the Middle East for over a decade.  Obama has continued Bush's progression doen the list - taking out Libya, working on Syria and expanding the US  presence in Somolia and elsewhere.  ut the Chinese and Russians are fed up with the US scfewing the world by paying for energy and raw materials with an ever declining dollar and trying to keep the petrodollar going by use of force.   Iran fought Iraq toa standstill for a decade - despite the US and Saudis backing Iraq.  Iran is far better equipped than Iraq - wargame scenarios against Iran end very badly for the US with cruise missles taking out US carriers, oil supplies drying up and far more 'blowback' in the region worsening things for the US.

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:06 | Link to Comment nofluer
nofluer's picture

And if the battlefield ends up being in Iran, the tactical looks bad for the attacking forces.... REALLY bad. Iranian geography is a defending general's wet dream that would last all night long and he'd be walking funny for a week.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:20 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

Apples and oranges, I don't think any of economists had the bar none best record on containing inflation.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment G_T_A_44
G_T_A_44's picture

Much like Wall St. in transitioning from Bull and Bear markets and vice verse, policy makers operate in a very similar fashion and that is, that Jane and John Q public are LAST to know, late to the party. By the time such developments are disclosed and admittedly so, we're in full blown mode. Essentially, they'll take you to the dance but, you’re looking for a ride when the lights are turned out.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:22 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

print no evil ..

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Are you willing to claim (as you did for the period from 2008 to today) that overall prices have not risen since 1979, when the DXY was at the same value as it was in 2008 and is again today?

*********

Of course not--what I've been trying to show you is the dollar is not crashing/USDX and that prices are not rising to the shopper solely because of the dollar--

Now you show me the pass over cost from the farmer to the retailer since 08--show me why food prices are dollar driven using your metric--or we're done this conversation-

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

I will probably regret this.....but this time is different. Almost all CBs of the world have been given free reign to print money. It used to be contained to just a country or two. So I expect massive inflation which means stocks will rise (nominally), which means gov stats will probably continue to show things as being "rosy", even as all the wealth of common people is stolen.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

So I expect massive inflation which means stocks will rise (nominally), which means gov stats will probably continue to show things as being "rosy", even as all the wealth of common people is stolen.

Yeah, and they will try to publicly 'measure' their depreciating currencies only against each other, and not against real goods or in purchasing power, as some idiots already do by holding up th3 DXY, the US Dollar Index, as some supposed measure of the 'value' of the US dollar, when it is no such thing.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Yeah, and they will try to publicly 'measure' their depreciating currencies only against each other, and not against real goods or in purchasing power, as some idiots already do by holding up th3 DXY, the US Dollar Index, as some supposed measure of the 'value' of the US dollar, when it is no such thing

**********

blah blah as usual--the DXY which does not measure purchasing power-seems to be a fair proxy to follow over the long haul-in most cases-except for chicken little's like you-who can't get it even when it slaps you in the face-

The DXY was trading at this level in 08-

Canola traded at the same price in 08 as today-same for wheat--same for soybeans--same for corn--same for oil--same for copper--same for orange juice--same for coffee-

Lots more--have a look

http://www.barchart.com/futures/marketoverview

Kinda blows "your" fucked up definition of inflation and dollar crashing out of the water..doesn't it..

I know your answer to this will be the usual one-so I'll save you repeating it over and over-

I'm a lying disingenuous sob-just like the historical charts-

 


Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:21 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

JimmyJames, your lies regarding the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar (and every other fiat currency), along with those of Orly and her eternal $1.00/lb chicken breasts, only serve to make the both of you laughing stocks in the forum, and only highlight your glaring idiocy and/or dishonestly.

We have been over this again and again, and your specious, erroneous, deflationary flat-earth arguments have been blown out of the water again and again, and yet you STILL insist on making them. 

So you unabashedly claim that overall prices have not risen one iota since 2008, simply because the DXY is around the same value today as it had back then?  Well, what about since 1979, when the DXY was ALSO around the same value as it has today --- are you going to try to similarly therefore claim that prices have not overall risen since 1979, either?  Really? 

Your feeble and specious argument is ridiculous on the face of it.

You damn well know that the DXY is NOT in ANY way an absolute measure of the value (purchasing power) of the US dollar, only a relative one ---- relative, that is, to other similarly depreciating fiat currencies.  Your repeated attempts to claim that which is not true only demonstrate your lack of intellectual and moral integrity.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:37 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Do yourself a favor and check the "prices" on the futures-

Ask a farmer if he's not getting the same price for his grain today as in 08--

We know wages have not gone anywhere--gas prices are a "bit" higher--so i guess if he could buy a barrel of oil for x amount of what in 08 and can do the same today--sounds like "prices" are the same--no?

Where is the dollar crash there?

Where was-if prices are higher for food in a grocery store today and i don't think they're much higher--where is the price pass through from the farmer to the store going?

Figure that out and maybe you can then come to an understanding in a monetary sense..no?

I didn't think so--

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:07 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

You dissembling piece of shit, you only pick 2008 as a reference point to discuss the prices of bulk commodities because of the spike in their prices in the early and middle part of that year.  How about comparing prices today to those in 2010, or 2009, or 2006?  Quite a different story now, isn't it?

Anyway, neither I nor anyone else buys bulk wheat or cotton or soybeans at the grocery store --- we buy FOOD, and THOSE prices are up around 25-30% just in the last five years.

Besides, the pertient point lies not in comparing today's prices to those of one (cherry-picked) point in the past, but in the GENERAL TREND, which has been consistently UP for the last 10 or 12 years, and more generally for the last 80 years, with the abandonment of the gold standard and the advent of the fiat US dollar.

Furthermore, you still refuse to directly address or acknowledge my rebuttal of your egregiously erroneous claim that the DXY measures in any way the purchasing power of the US dollar --- it does not, and you know it, yet you keep attempting to cloud the issue of the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar by irrelevantly referring back to it.

Logic (or honesty) is simply not your forte, is it?

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:14 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

You dissembling piece of shit, you only pick 2008 as a reference point to discuss the prices of bulk commodities because of the spike in their prices in the early and middle part of that year.  How about comparing prices today to those in 2010, or 2009, or 2006?  Quite a different story now, isn't it?

***********

Pull up a 25 year chart and look at 1997 grain prices-same as today--then they went down for 10 years--

Was the dollar strengthening?

By your assbackward understanding--Yes

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Funny how you insist on talking about the prices of bulk food commodities, which have only a small overall impact on the prices of foods made from them, instead of looking at what is most pertinent to the discussion: the prices of food IN THE STORE themselves.  Anyone here who does ANY shopping will metaphorically spit in your face, as they did to Orly (and rightfully so), if you like her have the gall and the idiocy to tell them that food prices (and almost all others as well) have not risen noticeably and substantially in the last five years.

Oh, and about that DXY --- are you still going to claim that overall prices today are the same as they were in 1979 because the values in the DXY then and now are almost exactly the same?  REALLY?

I honestly don't know what you are trying to accomplish with this ridiculous and wholesale denial of monetary reality that you insist on pursuing.  You obviously never took a debate class --- or one in logic either.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:16 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

that food prices (and almost all others as well) have not risen noticeably and substantially in the last five years.

***********

I asked you to the show me the pass through from the farmer-who is selling today for the same price as in 08-but you're so fucken dumb-you think it's currency related--lol

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

And YOU repeatedly try to hide behind tangents and diversionary minutia to avoid directly confronting my refutations of your laughable 'no inflation' propaganda, and more importantly the primary discussion at hand, which is the overall trend of currency depreciation and concomitant rising prices.  You keep trying to smokescreen the pertinent issues with largely irrelevant side issues rather than sticking to the topic under discussion.  This is usually the (dishonest and desperate) tactic of he whose argument is weak or foundationless.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Here's a big ticket item that must mean the dollar is soaring under your definition-you just yap AK--you have never provided any proof for your case-other than day to day food prices-which a sale can kick the shit out of-if you know how to shop--i don't care personally--if i need it--i buy it-

So collect all your coupons-watch for sales and do the arithmetic and then get back to me....

http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/united_states.png

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:41 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

blah blah as usual--the DXY 'which does not measure purchasing power' - seems to be a fair proxy to follow over the long haul

That one statement of yours alone is enough to completely discredit you on the topic of inflation and currency depreciation.

Or again, are you willing to claim (as you did for the period from 2008 to today) that overall prices have not risen since 1979, when the DXY was at the same value as it was in 2008 and is again today?

The DXY measures the value of the dollar in the same way that the level of water in Lake Mead measures the price of pig iron.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:42 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

brilliant as usual AK---btw..how long have you been practicing using big words to hide your easy to see through inferiority complex?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:52 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

LOL!

Again, failing to address the issues and challenges at hand.  How utterly pathetic.

Is it cowardice, or inability?

(Naturally, it is probably both.)

Oh, and which "big words" did I intimidate you with?  "Depreciation"?  "Inflation"?  "DXY"?  "Prices"?  "Same"? "The"?  "Is"?

 

Here, just answer this one:

Are you willing to claim (as you did for the period from 2008 to today) that overall prices have not risen since 1979, when the DXY was at the same value as it was in 2008 and is again today?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:03 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

And he's right about that, too: you have never offered any proof of your claims.  jj offers a view from the pit and I have offered a view from the ground- all with real-life numbers.

You have yet to show anything at all to support your claims.  I will wait patiently for you to do that.

:D

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Orly, that response is nothing but pure antagonistic instigation from you.  I honestly have no idea what your game is here, but it is not an honest one.

You have yet to show anything at all to support your claims.  I will wait patiently for you to do that.

I JUST GAVE YOU ONE SUCH PROOF!  This fool JimmyJames has repeatedly tried to claim that prices have not risen since 2008 because (comically) the DXY is at the same value today as it was then!  So I asked him to make the logical extension of that argument, that prices must not have risen since 1979 either, because the DXY was ALSO at the same level in 1979 as in 2008 and also as it is today.  Naturally, he refused to confront this logical absurdity in his argument, as he knows it destroys his erroneous thesis.

And what about our lying-through-their-teeth government's own BLS CPI statistics, which show a meaningful (if laughably lowballed) rise in the cost of living EVERY year of our lives, even since 2008?  Are you saying that the US federal government has OVERSTATED, or even worse, outright fabricated, the rising cost of living?

Honestly, for the love of God, WHERE are you going with all this absurd denial of reality?  I am truly beginning to think that you are nothing but a malicious troll, or else outright insane.  Nobody in their right mind can believe the up-is-down, black-is-white reversal of reality that you and JJ are claiming here.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

AK--scroll down one--

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:52 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

1997 corn contract---256

May corn today-------702

 

1997 soybeans-------675

Nov soybeans today-1272

 

1997 wheat CBOT---325

Today's May wheat--713

 

Where do you find these losers, akak?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:59 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I don't know, IC, but they remind of those annoying mosquitoes that keep buzzing around one's ears and eventually driving one almost crazy, refusing to fly away no matter how many times they are swatted.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:11 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

1997 wheat CBOT---325

*************

Sorry clueless fuckwit--typo..should read 1996 which makes it even worse for your case-

April 1996 wheat 717--today---711

Dollar related?

That' was my point in using 08 as proof that you and your little fuck buddy haven't a clue what you talk about-

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:18 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

You know, JimmyJames, I have come to the conclusion that trying to argue logically, rationally and factually with you is completely futile and an utter waste of time --- to paraphrase Simon Bolivar, one might as well attempt to plow the sea.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Pshaw!

C'mon, ak...get it together, huh?

At least you didn't call names.  That's at least respectable.

:D

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:29 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

"...metaphorically spit in your face, as they did to Orly (and rightfully so), if you like her have the gall..."

Where we're going, we don't need gall.  We have numbers.

:(~

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 07:36 | Link to Comment mojine
mojine's picture

You have MEANINGLESS numbers, and the gall to continue to use them in an attempt to refute the dollar's decreasing purchasing power after you, Jimmy and AKAK have all stipulated that the DXY does not measure the ability to purchase anything but a defined (and occasionally redefined) basket of similarly depreciating currencies. I don't know what your agenda is. I don't think anyone can be that stupid.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Well, Orly, past a certain point, this guy's own self-declared irrationality and absurdity was making, and continues to make, far more of a mockery of him than I ever could with a few disparaging names, so it seemed rather beside the point.

Really, at this point I am actually embarrassed for him.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Perhaps you should reconsider.  What he says is the truth.  Farmers are not seeing the paper gains on commodities because of speculation.  Once again, that construct is artifical and not systemic.

There are real reasons for concern, that much is true, but systemic inflation- at least not yet- is not one of them.

:D

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:20 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Oh, "the evil speculators"! 

I can remember them as the favorite whipping boy of Nixon when HE could not face the fact of monetary depreciation staring him in the face, either.  In fact, even Diocletian disingenuously blamed "speculation" for the rising prices that were the result of Roman debasement of the currency in the 3rd and early 4th century Roman Empire as well. 

Are you still wearing your WIN button, Orly?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:28 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

No, I am wearing my TANIN button:

There Ain't No Inflation Now.

I am a speculator myself.  I never said they were evil, though I do have these mysterious bumps on my head now...but I do money, not oil.

All I said was that speculation- evil or not (don't care...)- is not real.  It's fake.  It is artificial.  It's not really happening!

Do you speak any other languages, so that maybe I can make it a bit more clear to you?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!