You Rarely Know You're In A Recession Until It's Too Late

Tyler Durden's picture

Whether or not you believe it would have made a difference to 'know' or not, the facts are that over the course of US economic history, you rarely know you're in a recession until long after it starts. Would you still chase day after day? Could you stand to watch the greater fools buying in the belief they are not the patsy? The following six facts might put things into perspective...



1) Think back to 2008, a couple of days before the Lehman failure. Looking at the data in hand, you would see GDP growth at about 1% in Q1 and 3% in Q2. More specifically, Q2 GDP growth had just been revised up on August 28 from 1.9% to 3.3%, sparking a 212-point Dow rally that day.


2) In March 2001, 95% of economists thought there would not be a recession, but one had already begun.


3) No economist predicted the 1990-91 recession beforehand.


4) Hardly any economists recognized the severe 1973-75 recession until almost a year after it started. Indeed, that recession began with the ISM at 68.1, and payroll jobs growth did not turn negative for eight months.


5) In 1970, unaware that the economy was nine months into recession, none other than Paul Samuelson said that the NBER had worked itself out of a job, meaning that improved policy expertise had made recessions very unlikely.


6) In three of the last 15 recessions - specifically, in 1980, 1945, and 1926-27 during the Roaring Twenties - stock prices remained in a cyclical upturn.



(h/t @GreekFire23)

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francis_sawyer's picture

ECRI data = Thursday humor

IridiumRebel's picture

seems "dick the downvoter" has visited this thread.....sorry boys.

Xibalba's picture

Paul Krugman and MDB are taking turns with the same ip address? 

Fukushima Sam's picture

In other words, decades of economic manipulation are about to end in a spectacular crash, and we all get to ride in the back!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey!  I´ve been down here in Peru for almost a day now.  Did Squestration put America into recession yet?

(Keyboard differences making me go crazy here...)

DOT's picture

There are riots and fires everywhere!  ;

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Never overestimate the power of false hope, because you'll eventually lose everything:

Shocker's picture

We are in a recovery right?

Just walk around, look around.. Not too hard to see whats going on

Layoff/Closing List


TruthInSunshine's picture

"You Rarely Know You're In A Recession [Or A Depression] Until It's Too Late"


Damn skippy

[W]ithout exception, throughout history, the masses do not understand there is a crisis until well after it has already begun, and they've already committed to many purchases, indebtedness and other forms of dis-savings & inefficient expenditures that they wouldn't have committed to or made had they known accurate information sooner.


Hence, the "confidence fairy," which governmental employees, politicians and business spokespeople all actively perpetuate in their own methods and by various tactics, is a potent serial & mass killer of efficient markets and rational economic behavior (as it severely distorts essential economic information that is relied upon by economic and market participants).

pipelayer's picture

@spirit of are correct about the end times, but slightly off target on the players. The harlot and babylon the great comprises all false religion who have lead the nations, the beast, in the slaughter of the saints The war of the great day of the Almighty is the Kingdom of God, a real government, against ALL the nations to vindicate Gods sovereignty, or his right to rule. Keep seeking the truth and you will find it.....look to the scriptures

Terminus C's picture



Sorry dude but your sky wizard stories are just part of the matrix of control.

Two things about religion:

1) Pure arrogance that humans think that they KNOW the mind of God (creator of the infinite universe) and that this God looks just like us (and male to boot... because he needs to have a dick...)

2) That such a being would seek an "end times" battle between good and evil (both of which would be aspects of said God as "he" created all).  See point one about arrogance...


there is a whole lot more but I shant discuss it here.

pipelayer's picture

If you are truly a thinking man, you would reason that it is mathematically impossible for there to be anything other than a master creator. You cannot possibly come to the conclusion that chance brought us here. Unless of course what you accuse me of is what you really are. You have drawn wrong conclusions because you lack knowledge and wisdom provided in the scriptures, The Bible does provide responses to what you say. Go read it ... Then you you might have the standing to attempt to remove the obstruction in my eye.

Terminus C's picture

I have read the bible and I do not discount the possibility or the probability of a master creator.  The bible is a fantasy book of a stone and bronze age people trying to make sense of an INFINITE universe, which was, and still is, far beyond their/our ability to comprehend.

The point of religion is control of people.  This is the primary reason "gods" look just like the human masters of the religion.  Ever ask yourself why Jesus is depicted as a white man? 

Why do religions put so much emphasis on faith? - uhg, this is a vast conversation and this forum is not the best place to have it.  I'd gladly have you over for a glass of wine or beer for a discussion.

However my lens on religion is arrogance:  to claim "true" knowledge of the mind of an infinte being is pure, unadulterated arrogance, which is a deadly sin in your scriptures btw... some irony there ;)

pipelayer's picture

My dear Terminus, in Matthew 14:13' Jesus relays a scripture form the book of hearing you will hear, but by no means get the sense of it, and looking you will look but by no means see. The point is, you may have read a few Bible passages, but you failed to gain knowledge and wisdom. You see, anyone who has understanding of the Bible account can easily recognize that you do not know what you are talking about. Now I want you to go to 2 Corinthians 4:3-4 as it is most important you removed the vail from your eyes. You and I have come to this crossroad for a reason. The Bible is the word of God. Really Terminus, if you believe in a master created, do you reason that he would not want to communicate with his grand creation.? Forget all this arrogance stuff it leads you away from the good news of the Kingdom.......I'll take you up on that beer.

Spirit Of Truth's picture

The Author creates both protaganists and antogonists.  Tis all part of a good story.  What's key and true is the MORAL OF THE STORY. Do you get it?  Most here obviously do not.

And that's why I'm vilified at ZH, which is actually a good sign I'm on the right track.

pipelayer's picture

Most here obviously do not get it....yes sot, you are right, the road is narrow

Disenchanted's picture

Your 'God' is arrogant enough to believe 'he' created everything, but is wrong...


I have sent this (to you) because you inquire about the reality of the authorities[archons].


Their chief is blind; because of his power and his ignorance and his arrogance he said, with his power, "It is I who am God; there is none apart from me." When he said this, he sinned against the entirety. And this speech got up to incorruptibility; then there was a voice that came forth from incorruptibility, saying, "You are mistaken, Samael" - which is, "god of the blind."


His thoughts became blind. And, having expelled his power - that is, the blasphemy he had spoken - he pursued it down to chaos and the abyss, his mother, at the instigation of Pistis Sophia. And she established each of his offspring in conformity with its power - after the pattern of the realms that are above, for by starting from the invisible world the visible world was invented.



The Hypostasis of the Archons
pipelayer's picture

Colossians 2:8.....look out, perhaps there may be someone who will carry you off as his prey thru the philosophy and empty deception according to the traditions of men, according to the elementary things of the world and not according to Christ.

booboo's picture

Yes it's terriible here, german shepherds sleeping with women, pedophiles runnng Boy Scout troops, the government is plotting mass murder......wait, check that, everything is "normal" here in the U.S.

Atomizer's picture

TSA just went on strike, you won't be able to fly back home.

El Crusty's picture

i would just stay in Peru if i were in your shoes. Steven Tyler only snorted half of Peru, the glass is half full buddy!

SnobGobbler's picture

....psssst... that last depression stuck with us....

Super Broccoli's picture

my sister arrived in Peru yesterday too, foreign exchange, belgian chick, first name's "Fanny", slap her in the back of the head for me would you ?

Rogue Trooper's picture

Xibalba... weird shit, WHO would junk you? Ok MDB and Krugman would account for two but four?????

jballz's picture

I junk all of Francis comments. He is kind of a nazi if you haven't noticed. Anyway he hates jews. I am a jew. I probably have enough in my wallet to buy the trailer Francis lives in. Sometimes I get annoyed by the adl and all that whining from Jews. Then guys like Francis remind me. Francis would like to put me in the oven himself, because of being born.

So Francis is the enemy. Was not my choice, was his. Francis will lose, because he is dumb, there are dumb Jews too but rarely so dumb as Francis. He just wishes he could be smart enough to get the Jews into the ovens. And he will be angry all his life at those who are his betters, who own his meager existence, and must control him like a rabid animal, lest he ever get the power to live out his murderous dreams.

Self fulfilling hatred, goyim bitchez.

adr's picture

I know a few honest Jews, I know a lot more that would put their own mother in the oven if it meant making an extra buck.

I've worked for a Jew that knowingly sold a defective product meant for children because he wanted to save $.02 on a bolt assembly. When I objected and spec'd the proper bolt, I was called into his office and reamed a new asshole. I told him to fire me because I was not going to be held responsible if a kid dies. So he fired me and he used an even cheaper bolt, China doesn't care they use whatever you spec. You may have heard of baby swings that collapsed and crushed kids. Well this jew made one of them. When his company was sued he just declared bankruptcy and never paid the settlement. The jew lawyers got paid a couple million though. Parents whose children became paralyzed probably never knew that their kid was maimed because a Jew wanted to save a few pennies.

I wish that was the only story I have but I can go on and on.

Are there non jew CEO scumbags, yes. The problem is the percentage of times I and people I know have been screwed over by jews is far too high to be a coincendence considering their percentage of the population.

Betters? Ha. Cheating to win and immorality is not betterment. Greater fortune may be a sign of prominence to some. But fortune is meaningless when those you screwed come looking for blood.

Of course calling these people Jews is actualy wrong since most of them have no lineage to Jerusalem. They are converted Baltic trash, and if you've been to that area you know fucking people over for money has been a hallmark trait of them since the beginning.

jballz's picture


What the fuck does this probably bullshit story have to do with the guy being a Jew?

You know what?

I'm not even a Jew. I'm just a wasp asshole. Same as you wasp assholes. I'm a dirty goddam liar and NOT a jew!


I think the mistake you are all making is attempting to subdivide the human race along any lines of good/bad.

You are all fucking assholes. You blame the Jews to give cover to the non-Jew assholes. I.e. YOU.


whine on, emo hater bitchez. 

JR's picture

I try always to read the posts from Francis Sawyer as he is one of the more important and significant contributors to Zero Hedge. And for the life of me, I don’t remember any mention of ovens.

Perhaps you are too focused on denying the racial aspects of American politics. To set the record straight, the mention of Jews and their influence in the American government is one of the most appropriate subjects of our era. And the reason for this is the complete control now of the printing, issuing and identification of value of the nation’s currency that is in the hands of a few families who operate the central bank.

These families are Jewish.

That is a significant news item.  That is a significant development because control of the fiat currency has progressed into control of all the major levers of government: the congressional committees, the executive branch of the government, the courts, and, of course, the major media supporting these developments.

As a Jew you are aware, of course, of the tremendous representation of Jews in all of these critical areas. You may be upset sometimes with their actions but how can you suggest that this information should be silenced and forced into the shadows through intimidation? There’s scarcely enough material, especially now, on just who holds the leverage in this tyrannical government.

Would you silence even that?

fourchan's picture

jews dont see the problem because they falsely feel like its their team, fucking over the world

with the fiat central banking system. the funny thing is the joke is on them, there's a team alright,

and they make tens of millions a year, and 99.999% of jews are not on that team.

they just have to take the daily distain from everyone around the world, who has been taking

it in the ass from the team they are not even on.

BLOTTO's picture

Every nation has been hijacked and inflitrated by the elite...


And almost all the people in those nations have been poisoned and brainwashed.


I dont blame a specific race or group of people... i blame those bloodline(s) that think its their divine right to rule over us 'commoners' - by ANY means neccessary.


'They' are no different then you and I...we have the power as well - its just that our membership is too thin.


Scary Squirrel's picture

Oo-er: Socialism.  Better unionise...

francis_sawyer's picture

  "And he will be angry all his life at those who are his betters, who own his meager existence, and must control him like a rabid animal, lest he ever get the power to live out his murderous dreams"


please continue... After all ~ it's much better hearing 'the truth' STRAIGHT FROM THE SOURCE than listening to the 2 bit comedy routines of francis_sawyer...



So as to somewhat substantiate your comment on 'ovens' ~ Here is a link to my latest entry in that realm...

Which is why... I'd also advocate an END TO CENTRAL BANKS around the globe [which ~ by behaviour are presently RISKING that the same unfortunate series events might re-occur]...

jmcadg's picture

Jeez, what rock did you crawl out from under? I don't hate anyone, but I think you're a twat.

IridiumRebel's picture

A dick is a dick is a dick and religion plays no part.

francis_sawyer's picture

I'm kind of a dumb fuck... Notwithstanding ~ I have a question...


If I don't believe in RELIGION ~ Can I still be considered an 'anti semite'?...

akak's picture

"Anti the phosphite" wha?

Diogenes's picture

The definition of an anti semite is anyone who disagrees with any Jew anywhere in the world about anything.

This means everyone is an anti semite including all Jews. Since it is impossible for everyone to agree with everyone else about everything.

If you talk back, you're a Nazi.

francis_sawyer's picture

Before I make my final decision, does this... in any way... impact my getting to sleep with 72 virgins upon reaching Elysium...



Diogenes's picture

Ha ha ha ha ha what virgins? You can worship the Devil but you can't trust him.

Any religion that tells you to murder your own children and call it honor killing doesn't come from God,  it comes from the Devil.

francis_sawyer's picture

Here's where it gets dicey... I've stated that I don't believe in RELIGIONS... But I DO have faith that GOD EXISTS... I don't see GOD as a separate entity [as a 'monotheist', I suppose, would]... But I believe that GOD IS ALL OF US TOGETHER...


Which, I suppose, accounts for the DEVIL INSIDE...

francis_sawyer's picture



C'Mon Man!... I was hopin for some shit like this:

AssFire's picture

LOL... Screaming for Vengeance tour

I attendend the Dallas concert 1983-84?  that had to be stopped after the spectators (us dopesmokers) set so many trash fires under seats at reunion arena- the fire marshals shut it down ...Wow the colors burning off those blue and green plastic chairs did etch themselves in my mind.


Awesome video.

e-recep's picture

you are a pantheist then.

exgop's picture

You Jews certainly have ugly women