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Druckenmiller: "I See A Storm Coming"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Hedge fund icon Stanley Druckenmiller sat down with Bloomberg TV's Stephanie Ruhle, saying that he’s decided to speak out now because he sees "a storm coming, maybe bigger than the storm we had in 2008, 2010." His fear is that the ballooning costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (which with unfunded liabilities are as high as $211 trillion) will bankrupt the nation's youth an pose a much greater danger than the debt currently being debated in Congress.  He said, "While everybody is focusing on the here and now, there's a much, much bigger storm that's about to hit... I am not against seniors. What I am against is current seniors stealing from future seniors." While not exactly Maxine Waters' sequestration-based 170 million job loss, this concerning interview is must-see for his clarity and forthrightness from who is to blame, to the consequences of gridlock, our society's short-term thinking, and the concerning demographics the US faces.

 

 

Druckenmiller on why he's speaking out now:

"I see a storm coming, maybe bigger than the storm we had in 2008, 2010.  And really, the reason could happen without people looking as for a lot of similar reasons that we could get into.  But  the basic the basic story is, the demographic bubble I was looking at way back in '94 that started in 2011, we are right at the first ramp-up of this thing that is about to hit."

On U.S. demographics:

"Something remarkable has occurred since 1994 until now, which is entitlement spending, or let me say transfer payments to be a little more correct.  Transfer payments which were 28% and 60, and were 50% when we were in the budget mess in '94.  Lo and behold, they've gone up to 67% of government outlays.  But they haven't gone up because of demographics. They've gone up because the seniors have a very, very powerful lobby.  They keep getting more and more transfer payments from the youth. But the demographic storm is just starting now. It reminds me of '05 when people just extrapolated housing prices going up for 50 years…Everyone sorta lives with their rulers in the past and doesn't look at coming changes. So what's going to happen is we now have a working population, this is the way entitlements work, where the current workforce is paying for the benefits of the seniors. And since 2000, we've had about 4.5 to 4.8 workers for every retiree.  By 2050, that number will drop to 2.4 workers per retiree.  Another catchy way to say it is by 2030, the average population of the United States is gonna be older than the average Floridian right now."

On who is going to stop seniors from stealing from the next generation:

"You asked me why I'm here.  And I think people like me and others need to speak out. It's about the future, not about the present where the problem is.  And let me just say one thing.  I am not against seniors, okay.  I love seniors.  Unfortunately I'm going to be one in the not-too-distant futures.  What I am against is current seniors to me stealing from future seniors."

On who should be blamed for hurting the economy:

"It's hard to tell who's going to be blamed-- if we don't act and this occurs…There's plenty of blame to go around. If I had to analyze how do we get into the financial crisis, I would say it started way back in the '90s when then-Chairman Greenspan refused to address the dot-com bubble, came up with some new theory of productivity and therefore we're not going to have a problem, so all these NASDAQ companies who were never going to earn money went to hundreds-of-times earnings and then of course, we had a major bust.  And instead of taking a recession and having the cleanup…they needed an offset. So they created the housing bubble. So now by hindsight, everybody says, 'Well, you had these horrible Wall Street actors,' and I'm sure there were quite a few horrible Wall Street actors.  And I don't doubt that they were part of the problem.  In fact, I know they were part of the problem.  But I also know it was negative real interest rates for 12 outta 20 years that enabled these actors to do the things they were doing and incented, yes, incented them to go out and gamble the way they were gambling."

On gridlock in Washington:

"I'm pretty frustrated.  This sequester thing-- if you just look at how it came about, first of all, every five minutes all the suffering and all this horrible stuff is going to happen in various sectors if this goes through.  But there's three things that are not on the table in the sequester.  I know you're gonna be shocked by this.  Medicare, social security and Medicaid, okay."

On why Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are not on the table:

"I'm sure it's because of short-term politics.  The problem with politicians is, they really only do have a four-year life cycle.  The rest of us should have the responsibility to look a little further than that ahead.  But yeah, I don't know whether 'mad' is the word.  I'm extremely frustrated by their refusal to deal with this problem. And the sequester thing, I think the president made a deal. It was a deal so they would extend the debt ceiling, which they did, all right.  I am very much for tax reform.  But I don't think it should be part of this particular thing and we should be parading out the crowd we'd been parading about to say how horrible this is going to affect the economy. Let me tell ya, I don't know what the economy's going to do.  But it's just a little ridiculous to say a $600 billion tax increase over ten years and $150 billion increase in the payroll tax is going to have no affect on the economy.  But an $85 billion cut in discretionary spending is going to tank the economy?  If the economy were to soften, I can tell you it won't be because it will not be because of this $85 billion."

On why he doesn't become a policymaker:

"Because my wife loves New York and I love my wife."

On equities vs. bonds:

One of the things that is kinda one of my pet peeves is hearing all these people on TV say, 'Well, you gotta go into equities 'cause they're so cheap relative to bonds and there's no other game in town.'  They are cheap relative to bonds.  But everything is cheap relative to bonds…So just because equities are cheap relative to bonds doesn't mean their price isn't subsidized.  I'm not making a forecast here because the subsidization could go on for a long time.  But real estate, gold, equities, they're all priced off of ZIRP, zero interest rates, and they're all subsidized."

On whether the hedge fund industry could be in hot water 12-24 months from now and become even further consolidated:

"Oh, I don't know.  I think the hedge fund's short-term thinking is just a manifestation of our entire society.  Whether it's the fed or whether it's-- the administration or whether it's Congress, no one bothers to think about the long term anymore.  And the hedge funds are just one more manifestation of that."

On where investors should put their money right now:

"That's hard for me to answer.  Because I have the luxury of a lot of experience in sitting in front of a screen.  And I can go into currency markets where it's at a relative price.  So it's the one area where prices aren't subsidized.  And I'm arrogant enough to think I can time these things.  But I don't really know how to answer that question for public invest-- but let me just say that this idea that you've got go plowing into risk because rates are zero, that they will rue the day one day.  The music will stop.  And I would probably be invested right now thinking I'm smart enough to know that we're quite away from the music stopping.  I don't think Bernanke is about to end these policies for a while.  But let's just know what we're dealing with here."

On whether there needs to be more consolidation in the banking industry:

"I'd like to see them be more like utilities.  I could care less whether they make money, unless I happen to own equities in it.  But if we're talking about as a United States citizen--I have no problem with banks being utilities and going back to what banks used to do…"

On whether banks should just be making loans:

"Yeah."

On whether the most sophisticated bankers should work at hedge funds, not on sell-side trading desks:

"You said it, Stephanie, not me."

On what his future looks like:

"I'm probably going to disappear again at some point.  But in the meantime, I'm gonna do what I can to try and bring the awareness of this issue out because with respected economists, again, focusing on a little problem over here when you've got this big problem over here, I think the message needs to be out there."

On whether he'll start tweeting:

"No tweeting for me."

 

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Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:36 | 3290413 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

Your posts are not ramblings. They are cogent, clear, informative and very much appreciated by people who care about more than just how much they can squeeze out of their neighbor. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:02 | 3290649 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Now who's sucking...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:47 | 3290538 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

WTF Bruce, it's sucked ALL of our blood. Vampire style.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:23 | 3290784 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Sure, we are screwed. The money is gone! Fuck the money...I WANT ACCOUNTABILITY! This conversation about how Boomers are wiping out future generations is bullshit. We aren't doing anything to anyone. I call BANKRUPTCY. Lets stop the crap, take the assets and liabilities to court and settle this thing, and then when its done press criminal charges against those who perpetrated this disaster. So Madoff's victims may have been foolish to believe his lies but do you jail the victims or Madoff? The lack of accountability is the driving force in all of this and we are letting those who actively participated and orchestrated this fraud to supposedly fix it. This is nuts. I want a true bankruptcy proccess. I don't want to take government officials or bank executive's word for what is what. I want ACCOUNTABLILITY! Sure, I was swindled but I want the asswipes who robbed me in jail. I want them out sweeping and patching the holes in my street. I want them publicly disgraced, where they are afraid to be seen in public. This is not vengence, this is accountability. The one thing that is required to keep any system operational and functional over any period of time. If they are not called out and punished for this it is only going to go from worse to worserrrr!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:00 | 3290930 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Yeah Stan Druckenmiller is going to read the commentary on this blog site.  Please.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:11 | 3290290 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Gotta love it when the great financial geniuses show up and blame most all aspects of government spending on creating this huge problem while never mentioning our endless Department of War spending.I guess subsidizing global corporations by keeping their trade routes open and keeping the wage slaves docile is all part of the good that government does to keep Corrupt Colonial Capitalism afloat.

Oh wait, you cannot criticize the great war machine and still get interviewed on television. Now I see why it rarely occurs.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:11 | 3290292 FFox
FFox's picture

Drunkenpuker - Yet another elitest fat hog telling everyone all the country needs is to help fatten up the top 2% just a little bit more.

His recommendation = reduce all corp. taxes to zero - well GE and many of his fat cat pals ALREADY pay friggin ZERO!  And rates for him and his HFT hog buddies have been coming down for over a decade.

People like Drukenpuker just want it all!   They are not patriots!  they look at the US and it's citizens as just another egg to suck dry.

Stop wasting money by giving it to the banking elites!  And the military industrial complex and the pharma complex and the prison industrial complex.

How about at least one friggin high-speed train... or decnt roads, or an updated electrical grid!

Yet another dispicable creep on Financial creep media.  Sick f**ks!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:13 | 3290729 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

+10000000000000000000000000000000000

 

Fuck u drunkmiller

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:12 | 3290295 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Maybe Drunkenmiller should have come out and said it like it really is.  Social Security is a ponzi scheme and if it dies and somehow gets reincarnated the results will be exactly the same.

The Fed PROMISES inflation which guarantees some government trust fund that doesn't beat inflation will be wiped out and continuously dependent on new suckers.

When they can't make payouts then they borrow.

 

"I am from the government and I'm here to help."

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:12 | 3290303 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

so r these fuckers basically saying that the ism report is worth about 150 plus pts on the dow? bc that is the turn around we have seen in less than an hour from its low of 116.

 

u cant make this shit up. how these ppl r not in jail today makes no sense whatsoever.

 

what the fuck do they need to do to be put where they belong, behind bars?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:23 | 3290371 Mark123
Mark123's picture

When the manipulation becomes so obvious it is in its final days.  Although the MSM casually ignores all this manipulation, it is well understood by those who pay attention.  They are destroying the stock market to save their privilege (skimming). 

 

There are a lot of days recently where there have been massive reversals....shaky indeed.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:22 | 3291003 Bandit und Buster
Bandit und Buster's picture

Babylon the great, it IS coming down!

Anyone still fool enough to be playing in Babylon is living in a fantasy world of make believe. And will lose what they have left of their phony "money" that has robbed the people of their substance.

 

Rev 14:8 And there followed another angel, saying, Babylon is fallen, is fallen, that great city, because she made all nations drink of the wine of the wrath of her fornication (idolatry= worship of money).

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:13 | 3290308 bidaskspread
bidaskspread's picture

It's not the future seniors you need to be worried about. It's the present planning on the future covering. The future seniors never agreed to the promises you made on their behalf, why do you assume they'll honor them.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:15 | 3290327 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Remember folks, Stanley and his ilk loved SS while it was contributing "free money" to the government via the lock box build up.  The very day the cash flow reversed, SS was "irreparably broken."

Fuck you, Stanley.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:32 | 3290430 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

provide a quote where he says this or keep fabricating you force monger.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:11 | 3292250 kito
kito's picture

@rip, are you taking it in the ass from druckenmiller?? is he your hero?? do you dream of clipping his toenails???? 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:17 | 3290338 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Fuckhead Bloomberg says we are ok.....we have infinite money.....or was he referencing himself alone?

http://politicker.com/2013/03/mayor-bloomberg-dont-panic-about-the-seque...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:19 | 3290349 Mark123
Mark123's picture

From Bloomberg:

"U.S. lawmakers locked in partisan feuds are turning to across-the-board cuts in national security, education and anti- poverty programs rather than structural changes to retirees' benefits and the tax code."

 

I wonder who wrote this - White House press secretary?  Last time I checked there was no feud in Washington....just a gang of completely corrupt, greedy pigs feeding at the public trough.  What a joke....the sky is falling!!  God forbid some TSA employees should be let go!!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:26 | 3290393 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Ah...now I understand Obamacare......will fix the 'seniors' problem.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:51 | 3290576 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

We have a winner!

Just ask Krugman.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9u2Lf0DdzA

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:27 | 3290397 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

this interview is so odd coming just days after he made an appearance on TV saying "the market is just fine"

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:29 | 3290411 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

The new maximum voting age, I´m just dreaming....

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:31 | 3290425 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Still waiting for someone from the political class to pick up this "urgent" issue.  Just don't stand too close to the politician that does.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:32 | 3290433 GCT
GCT's picture

Now that we have moved on to blaming another demographic I just laugh at how well the government and the media has even brainwashed some at ZH.  Blame the boomers all you like, or blame the bankers, or blame the lazy.  Bottom line is the government set all of this up and excess funding was spent when it should not have been spent.   Most of these programs were in place before alot of boomers were even born.  If the people should ever wake up maybe they will hold their representatives accountable for all the theft and stop blaming one another. 

Most here that did indeed vote voted for a party that has screwed you for years.  Nothing is going to change until the people want change and the last election was all about more handouts. 

Divide and conquor is working well even here at ZH. No matter how many great articles or analysis done by ZH people always have to blame a demographic group for their troubles.    

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:40 | 3290474 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Jesus!  It's sickening to see all of these 'genius' commentators coming out of the woodwork now with their warnings of DOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

YES, THAT'S WHAT WE'VE BEEN TRYING TO TELL YOU!

And now they act like it's news?  And it's a 'revelation' that they have suddenly 'discovered' throught their own 'brilliance' and 'perception' that it doesn't look good?

dbeflirbsgiulgvrluipsvpsirrsilubougs!!!!!!!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:40 | 3290478 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

What's matter you billionaire, former protege and parter to that pinko commie SOROS? I see where you retired in 2010, say, isn't that around the time Dodd-Frank reared it's ugly face? Dodd-Frank, required accounting and auditing and compensation review and had a few so-called investor protections stated in it to, you know, mislead the sheeple. My guess is you didn't want to spend some of your algo generated income to keep a political ho bought and paid for, unlike your daddy SOROS.

I'll be on your side, about us boomers stealing from the young, like we don't have any young to worry about, when dickheads like you, soros and the other progressive "Icons" pay taxes; along with all the colleges, foundations, kennedy trusts, churches and union pension funds. I'm not holding my breath though, so why don't you eat shit and die!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:42 | 3290492 uncle reggie
uncle reggie's picture

Drunkinmiller is a clown, well he's actually a lying clown.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:53 | 3290586 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I see a storm coming and its NOT about SS : Its this as its ALWAYS  been SINCE 2007 DAYS AND WAY BEFORE :

CFTC Derivatives Proposal Would Weaken Rules Meant To Prevent Another Crisis, Advocates Warn

WHAT WILL ELIZ. WARREN HAVE TO SAY ON THAT? (Not that she can do anything about it except squawk!)

Govt shills and TBTF in bed like goose and gander. 

Whats new?  That is Pax Americana stamped and delivered; in MIC, in Oil and now in money trail gone mad. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:56 | 3290608 Orly
Orly's picture

Yeah...but how was the steak tartare?

:D

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:25 | 3290800 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Its for saturday! 

Your'e jumping the gun! 

I'll tell you if my guests clap or throw up after that awesome combination. I've never had truffles like that. 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:48 | 3290883 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Actually, medical fact and personal experience says that the equine version is superior in taste and quality to the bovine version.  Sorry to pop the cherry of a cultural/KoolAid myth.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 12:52 | 3290589 realtick
Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:03 | 3290653 smacker
smacker's picture

IMHO, it's disingenuous - but easy - to blame the seniors. When state spending is excessive, even on seniors, it's not the seniors' fault. It's the political elites who promise/spend the money to buy the votes. It's only the political elites who can reduce spending.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:05 | 3290664 JR
JR's picture

The reason Druckenmiller is issuing storm warnings is to protect the interests of the financial enclave while cutting SS benefits and heading off the delivery of promises to the baby boomers.

In short, the creators of the storm know very well its magnitude and want to ensure that their enormous take away from the U.S. Treasury is protected; and Druckenmiller is their spokesman.

These talking points are coming from Wall Street and its military-industrial complex – for the support of its resource wars, its off-shoring of America’s manufacturing base coupled with tax-free havens for the pirates, its aggressive expansion of Israel into the Middle East, its bailouts…

The culprits in creating this storm are not mentioned by Druckenmiller: the total support for big government spending on military and continued reinforcement of the investment banks and their high-risk gambling with the public’s money.

There is something wrong with an economic system where all of the participants, the willing and unwilling, are forced into a risk market which is manipulated by the financial sector for its prosperity alone and, with this approach, all the infrastructure -- oversight, regulations, and interest rate policy – ends up in its hands.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:16 | 3290741 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

+100000000000000000000

 

fuck u drunkmiller

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:17 | 3290753 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"On Equities vs. Bonds: ...But real estate, gold, equities, they're all priced off of ZIRP, zero interest rates, and they're all subsidized."

Gold 'subsidized'?  Really?  More like repressed.  Big time.  To keep it from blowing up the USD currency -- what else !?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:24 | 3290792 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

these douchebags on cnbc are saying the reason we are going higher is good ism data.

 

ya, lets ignore terrible gdp data, terrible pmi data from the biggest economys in the world, and income plunging to worst levels in fucking years.

 

ism is decent,thats worthy of a 180 plus turnaround on dow.

 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:27 | 3290810 Judge Crater
Judge Crater's picture

Can someone just shut up Stanley the Clown?  Entitlements aren't the problem, the problem is looters like Druckenmiller, looters who over the past 30 years have gutted the US economy with pump and dump type takeovers of established companies.  Privatize a big corporation with borrowed money from Big Banks like JPMorgan Chase or CitiBank, lay off as many workers as you can and eliminate useless frills like defined pension plans.  Then unload the corporate wreckage as an IPO on Wall Street.  Hedge funds could not get away with their practices, one step above operating a bucket shop, if not for the cooperation of everyone in the government from the SEC to the Justice Department to corrupt Bankruptcy Court judges.  Almost all the trillions of dollars in national debt that Obama has added was to subsidize the lifestyles of the top 1/10 of 1%.  Imagine, the big banks get monmey at 0% interest from the Fed's discount window and these banks then make deals with payday advance lenders who lend the money out at interest rates (including penalty charges) of up to 600%.  Stanley the Clown doesn't mention the massive payments under TARP and other Fed programs that enable US banks to continue giving out multi-million dollar bonuses as a reward for total incompetence.  No, Stanley is against seniors living on Social Security and receiving Medicare, when that Federal money could be better spent by the hedge fund robber barons on penthouses, whores and private jets.  What a degenerate lowlife Stanley is.   

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:36 | 3290839 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Judge, Drunkenmiller and cronyism is definitely a problem. To use this issue to say medicare, SS, medicaid, Obamacare and interest payments will not destroy America is idiotic. In fact this form of logic is destroying this country!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:49 | 3290885 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

You have a very legit point about how morally and fiscally bankrupt the current model of Anglo-American capitalism has become and Drunkenmiller does sound a bit like Peterson.  Still, when you get past all of the partisan BS (which is so thick that is is nearly impossible), Medicare/Medicaid aren't sustainable on their current paths.  Simply aren't especially if we don't find a way to deal with treating Alztheimer's and other elderly patients with dimentia since the instituionalized costs of those individuals on a yearly basis is staggering since they need 24/7 monitoring. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:39 | 3291080 Bandit und Buster
Bandit und Buster's picture

MeB said " Medicare/Medicaid aren't sustainable on their current paths. Simply aren't especially if we don't find a way to deal with treating Alztheimer's and other elderly patients with dimentia since the instituionalized costs of those individuals on a yearly basis is staggering since they need 24/7 monitoring."

YES, good point, but shall we also talk about the govmnt santioned food poisoning, the pushing of big pharma poison as 'healthcare', the cronism w/ FDA and big pharma, and the destruction of real healthy food like raw milk that has brought on much of the ILL health and dementia today?? 

All this increase in diseases of the last 60 yrs didn't occur NATURALLY! Like we trusted the politicians, we trusted the DOCTORS, BIG PHARMA, DRUGS, FDA, ETC, ETC, ETC....

As I've said above, IT IS/HAS ALL BEEN PLANNED.

Search out and read "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion".... and WAKE UP. 

"We have exterminated the property owners in Russia.We are going to do the same  thing in Europe and America." (TheJew, December 1925, Zinobit)

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:32 | 3290820 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

No need to re-invent the wheel.  Older societies with a LOT more experience with seniors than 1960-2013 Americans, know the solution to this one, especially when NO gov programs existed:  Use a multi-generational model:  The sibs look after their parents

Also, the culture and buildings have to change from single-family homes to multi-generational homes.  3 generations live in one house.  There are lots of benefits to the family, less benefit to banks & builders.  And there's the rub & social conditioning:  Consume, build on borrowed money, create debt, and make builders and banks rich.  Especially banks.

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:45 | 3290873 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

That's easier said than done for something that has a severe physical or mental disability especially if you have a parent that has severe dimentia or Alztheimer's.  It basically requires someone to monitor them 24/7 in the household. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:28 | 3291040 JR
JR's picture

Boomers get a bum rap in the corporate media…only a tiny percentage of boomers send their elderly parents to nursing homes.

http://www.leaderu.com/orgs/probe/docs/disillus.html

and of those who do…many baby boomers find themselves supporting their elderly parents, in some cases footing the bill for assisted living or nursing home care.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/01/24/tax-deductions-dependents-baby-boomers/

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:34 | 3290827 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

Stanley, you best leave the drink alone.    Thank goodness the Hungarian palindrome screamed long enough to get you out of technology and saved the fund.    

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:36 | 3290836 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Don t cry for me Argentina.

Look Argentina printed and it worked. Their debt to GDP is much lower. Krugman is right! \sarc

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:36 | 3290837 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

We need change from the bottom up, not top down:  Either starve the banking and gov Beasts by cutting, cutting, cutting, or blow it up into hyper-inflation and crash, with Debt Galore.  But stop feeding the beast!  Step back, do not feed the animals!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:37 | 3290841 de3de8
de3de8's picture

"I see a storm coming...." Where's he been in a coma?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:51 | 3290892 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Storms on the horizon 2008 richard Fisher Dallas Fed http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm

But that was a redux of Greenspan's Nov 2005 State of the Economy Speech-which Congress slept through/ignored. 

So ya, he's been in a coma since at least 2005

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:43 | 3290861 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

It always amazes me on here for a supposedly astute bunch the amount of amazing stupid comments you get on here about the budget.  Druckenmiller is right than wrong on here.  I would love to see banks pushed more bank into a utility role as they in the 1930s up until the 1980s.  Amazing how when they were heavily regulated including at the state level, had stricters limits on their leverage and size, and were allowed to bring in all kind of different functions under the same corporat umbrella that we managed to avoid banking calamity after bankig calamity.   Of course we would have had the huge and artifical benefit of insanely-leveraged growth but I would have gladly made that tradeoff.

As for the budget, it is healthcare (Medicare and Medicaid) that aren't easily fixable.  Medicaid's single largest expense is payments for instutionalized care of the elderly and seniors are by far and away the single most expensive demographic for Medicaid payments.   There is no easy way to contain healthcare inflation and no country on the planet has done a great job of keeping down its healthcare inflation rate for seniors over the last 20-25 years.   

Bruce Kasting post on here that SSI is killing younger generations.  That's only true to a point and the biggest issue there is that it is capped at such a low income level, that we don't means-test it, and that we don't use other actuarial adjustments to fix it.  SSI is quite easy to fix from an actuarial standpoint and everyone who tells you differently is largely a partisan liar.  It just requires the left and right to give up some things to reach a compromise. 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:43 | 3290863 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

My neighbour's cousin is retiring in ~12 years.  He plans to get a teaching degree now and teach in one of the Developing/BRIC countries, and take his 401k and home equity with him.  Simpler, cheaper life, less taxes & gov laws, and health care that won't bankrupt them.  Definitely an out-of-the-box solution.  Tempting.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:45 | 3291097 Bandit und Buster
Bandit und Buster's picture

"My neighbour's cousin is retiring in ~12 years."

lol,  12 YEARS?  LOL!   What's he smoking??

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:11 | 3291190 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

cheaper yes, quality of health care?  worse.  water quality?  worse.   gov laws?  latin american laws change with the wind.   probably a good idea from age 55 to 65, then back to the developed west to get all the medical and assisted living services

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:45 | 3290870 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

it is the alien nation's "youth" which is swelling the unfunded liabilities, the Booosh immigration unfunded liabilities bubble swelled our debt by over 100trillion dollars and didn't grow our economy 1 penny 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 13:55 | 3290906 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

As for demographics, the federal budget last year spent at a greater than 4:1 ratio on programs devoted to the elderly (65 and older) than children (18 and younger).  Argue all you like but it is a simple fact.

Druckenmiller has some veiled intents I bet on why he wants to cut entitlements to seniors but on the basic premise (especially regarding healthcare expenditures for the elderly) he and the GOP are dead on.  It's one of the few legit points when you get past the wall of shit in Ryan's budget.   We are spending at a rate especially at the federal level as a society on the elderly that is a recipe for disaster which includes insufficient investment in infrastructure, R&D, and human capital.  

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:00 | 3290932 Anomalous Howard
Anomalous Howard's picture

"...by 2050..."

2050????

I'm on the edge of my seat now...

all else being equal of course.

But all else won't be equal.

By 2050 global Methane Hydrate release will take out Druckemiller's grandkids so they won't have to worry about demographics much.

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:04 | 3290940 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

can-kickers will be remembered...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:08 | 3290955 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So I'm surprised they're not introducing him as "the guy who blew up the British pound." that strikes me as a "currency thingy" and maybe he'd have some insight into why he thinks "Japan should be wiped off the map this time."

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:10 | 3290965 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

2 days in a row fb all the sudden just goes up like 1 and a half percent on shit. out of nowhere, volume spikes

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:08 | 3291179 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

probably ackman establishing a position oh so subtle like.   

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:21 | 3291010 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

guys a douche, cut goverment 50% on everybody and hang all the bailed out bankers.  And fuck you Bernanke.

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:32 | 3291053 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

One thing's for sure is that the eye of this hurricane has somehow been 'ovaled' big time.

Of course there's a storm coming, people still seem to forget we crashed in '08 and it's only got worse sense.  They're playing a huge game of jenga on top of a bottomless quick sand pit and it's getting pretty reckless.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:40 | 3291083 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

I am not sure why anyone is worried about demographics. The FED will just print money to monetize the US government debt (entitlements and all). Has no one seen what happened in the last 4 years? The world has changed (for the worse).

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:50 | 3291112 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

zerohedge.com / Fed's whining we're non-existent before the 2008 housing crash, 4 years from the good old time...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:41 | 3291087 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

In the early 1990's I read a book called "Social Insecurity" and posited a future dilemma. Why will minority workers that will become majorities in the future want to fund the "rich" white retirees retirement?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:12 | 3291391 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

Cause they're dumbasses?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:43 | 3291091 centerline
centerline's picture

I see dead people.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:55 | 3291124 topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture

So WHY is there a CAP on FICA ? The CAP you won't here mentioned about on MSMedia. It was $110,100 last year. All wages above that, more than half Total Wages, didn't Pay

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:24 | 3291436 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So what you are saying is that we should force higher income earners to pay more while also telling them that because of their earnings they will be means tested out of benefits? Yes that sounds about right...IDIOT. Its what its always been about, wealth redistribution. From those who have it to those who want it. Great. Its like I fell asleep during the cold war and woke up and found that the USSR had won! If you want a fucking socialist welfare state just say so! These "taxes" were supposed to be paying forward for our benefits. "Ours" like in all of ours, not just the ones who failed to save for their retirement. Just call it welfare and take it out of general tax revenues, rather than to keep calling a benefit. Gads, don't you fucking leftist fools ever get tired of having to lie about what you want? Wouldn't it just feel so good to just be able to come out and say it? Say...I want your stuff! All of it! I deserve it more than you so give it up! MINE! Or maybe...I hate you because you make me feel like a failure. I hate you waving all your big house and shiney car in my face. Say fuck you and gimme all your shit, even if I just want to trash it so you can't have it anymore! Wouldn't that just feel so damn good? IDIOTS

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:06 | 3291159 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Druckenmiller is somewhat wrong when he says that gold is priced off ZIRP because had ZIRP not been in place and the market had been aloowed to self corect through collapse/ankruptcies or whatever, then gold would have reinstated itself as the meas of re-establishing order in the market as a non manipulative referee both nationally and interntionally.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:14 | 3291197 A. Buttle
A. Buttle's picture

drunkenmuller is going to get assraped and his wifee likewise just like all the other useless paperpushing suit wearing algo worshipping maserati lusting penthouse dwelling fuckfaces once the dirty masses wake up and decide to even the score

if he had an ounce of smarts he'd grab his wife by the hair and drag her outta the cesspool and into some faraway farmland and hope no one figures out who he is

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:24 | 3292278 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

That's a First Class rant!   Agree completely

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:19 | 3291217 RougeUnderwriter
RougeUnderwriter's picture

I see a storm coming also. Next week to be exact:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potenti...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:02 | 3291340 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Dup

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:01 | 3291342 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Is that you Jim Cantore? Is this me?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:31 | 3291244 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

So Druckenmiller strikes me as just another parasite. Why should anyone listen to him? He just wants to create another dialectic between the older people and the younger people. He wants there to be conflict. He wants the young people to see that the problem is helpless old people and not the financial parasitism that people such as him caused and live off of.

You want to know the real short-sighted problem. It is allowing Druckenmiller-esque parasites to decide how assets are allocated in the US and the world. Because of the short sighted and parasitic nature of people such as Druckenmiller there has been a massive misallocation of assets and resources to benefit only a few, such as him, at the expense of the many.

Go crawl back into your hole, parasite!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:55 | 3292336 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

Old people are far from helpless. They are the wealthiest demographic in the USA, and a very powerful lobby in DC. By the way, you forgot to mention cat-food while you were spewing mindless drivel.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:49 | 3291302 jse111
jse111's picture

Stanley "sees" far less clearly now without Big George's Fog Lamps guiding his every move.  Additionally, he will announce near term that he is running for political office to better protect and serve the vast muddled mass class.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:03 | 3291331 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

Duplicate removed, sorry.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:01 | 3291347 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

Completely bullshit!  seniors from stealing from the next generation (Druckenmiller is a shill for the Political classes)

If you look behind the curtain you'll get more questions!

The corporation, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, has exempted itself from all GAAP rules of fiscal management. 

Proper accruals and timely reporting of the true condition of our country's finances would have woken people up many years ago. 

 

You should tell the truth by showing how much money was paid into Social Security and NOT escrowed.  We all know that Congress spent the money as fast as it came in. They gave non-interest bearing Treasury Notes in exchange for the cash.  

This was done by congress  to the next generation AND the current generation.  Remember how they saved SocSecurity in 1985?  FICA taxes were doubled! 

 

Many of America’s problems have been caused by the HOUSE & Senate.

-          Spending FICA in General Fund  instead of saving for future retirees;

-          Revoking Glass-Stegal & providing NO Controls for Bank Examiners to report on;

-          Bailing out big banks from thier BAD Investments;

-          Manipulation of Stock Market by POMO;

-          Allowing White House to NOT prosecute Mortgage Fraud, etc;

-          Allowing President to start Foreign wars without Congressional Orders;

-          Doing personal business, Insider Trading;

-          Allowing Free market activities that destroy level playing ground.  HFT and Derivatives with no security.  Refusing the require a clearing house to enforce existing rules on some Secs;

-          Always changing the rules, Not enforcing existing laws;

 

 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:09 | 3291379 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

 


Oh yeah, Fuckyoumiller; Remember, not only did us boomers contribute to Social Security but our employer did, too. It totaled 15% of our income before taxes. If you averaged only $30K over your working life, that's close to $220,500. Read that again. Did you see where the Government paid in one single penny? We are talking about the money boomers and our employer put in a Government bank to insure you and I that we would have a retirement check from the money we put in, not the Government. Now they are calling the money we put in an entitlement when we reach the age to take it back. If you calculate the future invested value of $4,500 per year (yours & your employer's contribution) at a simple 5% interest (less than what the govt. pays on the money that it borrows), after 49 years of working you'd have $892,919.98. 
 


If you took out only 3% per year, you'd receive $26,787.60 per year and it would last better than 30 years (until you're 95 if you retire at age 65) and that's with no interest paid on that final amount on deposit! If you bought an annuity and it paid 4% per year, you'd have a lifetime income of $2,976.40 per month. 
 


Another thing with me.... I have two deceased husbands who died in their 50's, (one was 51 and the other one was 59 before one percent of their social security could be drawn. I worked all my life and am drawing 100% on my own social security).. Their S.S. money will never have one cent drawn from what they paid into S.S. all their lives. 
 
THE FOLKS IN WASHINGTON HAVE PULLED OFF A BIGGER PONZI SCHEME THAN BERNIE MADOFF EVER DID. 
 
Entitlement my foot, I paid cash for my social security insurance! Just because they borrowed the money for other government spending, doesn't make my benefits some kind of charity or handout!! 
 
Remember Congressional benefits? --- free healthcare, outrageous retirement packages, 67 paid holidays, three weeks paid vacation, unlimited paid sick days. Now that's welfare, and they have the nerve to call my social security retirement payments entitlements? 
 
We're "broke" and we can't help our own Seniors, Veterans, Orphans, or Homeless. Yet in the last few months we have provided aid to Haiti , Chile and Turkey . And now Pakistan ......home of bin Laden. Literally, BILLIONS of DOLLARS!!! 
 
Our retired seniors living on a 'fixed S.S. income' receive no additional federal aid nor do they get any financial breaks, while our government and religious organizations pour hundreds of billions of $$$ and tons of food to foreign countries! 
 
They call Social Security and Medicare an entitlement even though most of us have been paying for it all our working lives, and now, when it's time for us to collect, the government is running out of money. Why did the government borrow from it in the first place? It was supposed to be in a locked box, not part of the general fund. 
 
Sad isn't it?

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:18 | 3291413 rustymason
rustymason's picture

The boomers were the absolute worst in history. They took the richest, most wonderful country in the world and drove it deep into the ground, and are still working hard to pillage every last cent from their children's piggy banks.  It's the Republicans' / Democrats' fault! Give me cheap imported goods and labor, to hell with society and the culture!Screw the children, let Moloch have them! To hell with the whole country, just give me "my" money for 40 years of total retirement, give me my televison, my TV sports and give me Honey Boo Boo!  They're gonna be real lonely in the old folks' home.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:30 | 3292052 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Funny thing that Stan doesn't mention the trillions that have been handed to his finance buddies at ZIRP.   Nor does he discuss how there is massive subsidization of Big Pharma, Big Oil, Big EVERYTHING - America's biggest welfare queens are its corporations!

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:11 | 3291384 rustymason
rustymason's picture

"... we now have a working population, this is the way entitlements work, where the current workforce is paying for the benefits of the seniors." 

A couple of years ago I asked my parents and inlaws, who all will have received serveral government/retirement checks for their 40 years each of retirement, about this situation. They laughed and told me, Tough Shit, Kids, we got ours, suck it up.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:40 | 3292187 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

>>>>>40 years each of retirement

Let's see--assuming they're 80, they retired at 40?

Maybe they just don't like you.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:31 | 3291458 captain whitewater
captain whitewater's picture

Sequestration is what Obama settled for when he knew the dems could not get more taxes and the republicans knew they could not get tax cuts. This economy is exactly what the gangster thug Obama wants it to be. No growth, no jobs, low paying jobs, high unemployment and lots of misery....social justice for black America. Get white America and punish the middle class while taxing the rich. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:35 | 3291473 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The State of Michigan is taking over Detroit becasue they are bankrupt. When will the federal government be forced into default and who would be the settlement arbiter for such a bankruptcy? Obama took the reigns of GM because he claimed that as the principle debt holder it was his responsibility as CEO of America (the bank as it were) to protect the investors (us) from further losses. At what point can or will our creditors come together and make a legal demand on America for a bankruptcy settlement. The Chinese and many others are truely concerned about the potential losses that our current strategy is heading us towards. 200,000 people out of a city population of ten million in Egypt was enough of a catalyst to justify the leaders of the world to force Mubarak to step down. How many Americans would it take in the form of a petition or even public protestation to force the government to capitulate on their financial kamakazi madness? If we wait for the Chinese, the middle easter countries, Russia or maybe Soros to do  it, we know that ain't going to end well for us, right? I know its a pipe dream, but just wondering.....

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:35 | 3291474 Dubious Maximus
Dubious Maximus's picture

Stephanie's hot!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 16:36 | 3291475 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Gridlock? Tell them to stay working or go home, resign and stay home...and of course  be un-eligible to run again in the immediate election for the self-vacated seat. It's a res of the  public: republic.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:48 | 3291930 sschu
sschu's picture

What a waste this interview was.  He is just getting around to realizing we have an entitlement problem?  David Walker (former USG Controller?) was saying/writing about this 5 years ago.

Some hedgie talking like he is a big shot with all this unique insight and information.  Stop it already, you have your free money, you are not that much smarter than everyone else.  

Really, just go away.

sschu 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:26 | 3292020 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

"I am against...current seniors stealing from future seniors."

The basic system IS "money" made out of nothing, as debts!

Everyone has been forced to live inside of that system, which system was originally the result of the best organized gang of criminals taking control over the government, to use the powers of government to back up their privatized, then globalized, fiat "money" made out of nothing, as debts, system. After the biggest gangsters, the banksters, were able to take control of the government, through the application of the methods of organized crime within the overall political processes, for more than a Century, EVERYONE alive today was born into that system, and never had any reasonable ways to get out of that debt slavery system. The fundamental structure of that system automatically drives that system towards debt insanity.

THAT SYSTEM WAS DESIGNED TO ENSLAVE THE FUTURE, AND SO, SHALL DESTROY THE LIVES OF THE YOUNG, AND THOSE NOT YET BORN. Those alive today have no practical possible choices, within the present systems, but to continue to go deeper into debts, in ways which transfer those debts onto those who may be paying taxes in the future. Those alive today never had any possible ways to get out of the deepening rut of the triumphs of organized crime having already taken control of the government.

The system of financial fraud, backed by the force of government, was already well-established and entrenched before anyone alive today was born. The most probable future is for that runaway triumph of force backed frauds to continue to get more and more insane, until its inherent madness results in its own self-destruction. After that collapse into social chaos, some kind of monetary revolution may become possible?

However, that monetary revolution will merely reveal what was always actually the case throughout this time, namely, that money was backed by murder, and that there is no way to fix the monetary problems without addressing the murder system problems. Of course, meanwhile, that hypercomplicated entangling of the debt controls with the death controls will continue spinning itself into even more crazy knots.

This interview ends with the ridiculous notions about educating the young, when nothing remotely like that will be done, nor could it feasibly be done, due to paradox that society is, and must be, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, and that teaching the young those basic social facts is precisely what would not be tolerated to be done.

I call attempts to educate the young the "Suicidal Socratic Predicament." Since society is totally dominated by the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites that money can buy, and all of the most successful people have adapted to operate inside of those well-established systems, teaching youth more radical truth is BOTH the most theoretically necessary, and the most practically impossible, thing to try to do.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:24 | 3292164 Blano
Blano's picture

"Because my wife loves New York and I love my wife."

I almost quit reading right there.  Fuck New York.

Love,

A Texas transplant

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:31 | 3292171 billsykes
billsykes's picture

I don't give a fuck about 2050. The big secret, the big mystery, is that the government is going to cut it off.

And if the current climate is any indication, whining about 2.5% cut then it’s going to happen abruptly and not voluntarily. 

When you tamper with the natural forces of nature and of commerce, you get these abominations of "entitlements".

The social contract between people and gov. should be to provide minimal background noise to us people making a living, don't fuck with the money, don't intervene in the market, don't parent us and we won't overthrow you. I think that they even had a background reference document like that at one time, forgot what it was called. 



 


Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:01 | 3292226 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Remember how W wanted to privatize 401k/IRA's?

Get a load of this. Control under the Federal Reserve.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/02/the_feds_want_your_retirement_acc...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:27 | 3292287 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Stan - what about all the fat fucks on Wall Street who are STILL getting taxpayer cash at ZIRP and paying out bonuses - Welfare Pigs.

I have an idea for Stan - when the shit hits the fan someone needs to set up a fishbowl like they have in Bangkok and put his wife in there for a week. 

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