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Presenting The "Great Rotation"... Out Of Investing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since 2004, interest in 'stocks' and 'bonds' has plunged by more than 50%. Despite a renaissance for bonds in 2008, and stocks in 2009, the 'Great Rotation' appears to be 'out of investing'. Google Trends also shows that, as expected, 'Bonds' have been more popular than 'Stocks' since the crash - a development the Fed is so desperately trying to reverse, by imposing ever stricter central planning, ironically the reason why most have "just said no" to an authoritarian, inefficient, and farcical policy instrument formerly known as the market. Is it any wonder so many retail brokerages, commission-takers, and asset-gatherers are advertising day-in, day-out and constantly reassuring with the "it'll all be 'ok' in the long-run meme"?

 

 

Source: Google Trends

 

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Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:39 | 3291857 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There's never been a better time to go all in on house or stock buying!

Go especially leveraged long on those 10x, 20x and 50x baggers since 2009!

 

-- Co-Statement by Ben S. Bernanke, The National Association of Realtors, James "Winners of The New World Let's Try This Again v2.0" Cramer, The Association of Professional Financial Advisers, The National Association of Home Builders, Abby Joseph Cohen, your local assessor's office, Jeremy Siegel & Irving Fisher

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:58 | 3291947 clara-to-market
clara-to-market's picture

I often look into my crystal balls.

I enjoy rubbing them.

I see the Dow at 39,000.

Keep buying.

http://angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/03/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-burger.html

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:35 | 3292069 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

How many damn accounts are you going to make in order to spam your stupid blog?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:06 | 3292134 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

I find spamming to be wrong. I do not support Sinners use of this forum to drive traffic to his blog.

But if you take a moment and jump through a few weeks of his posting you will find humor, understanding, acceptance, reason, with a bit conflict thrown in. One whack of a spoon and Dragon Lady can never be forgotten.

Check it out

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:19 | 3292157 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

I was astonished watching CNN last night as Dana Bash tried to interview United States Congressmen scurrying away from her, trying to get away in limos and such, to go on vacation. What pathetic excuses for leaders and representatives of citizens who put trust in them. What a contemptible, unspeakable, horrifying disgrace.

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 11:17 | 3293335 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I see you have another crap account Clara.

Your blog sucks!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:12 | 3291985 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

3 weeks........that's the limit. Ben's treading water here with a school of sharks under the dark water. He knows it too so enjoy the illusion for 3 weeks then it starts.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:16 | 3292002 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

'3 weeks........that's the limit.'

Just curious, please enlighten us as to what happens in 3 weeks?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:24 | 3292032 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

We'll be a week past the Ides of March, so... I'm guessing an official war between... oh... let's say Syria and Israel.

Neocons get Spring Fever too!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:26 | 3291858 MoneyThangs
MoneyThangs's picture

Ever since the beginning of time, stock markets have gone up in a straight line, so why not invest in a LinkedIn or an Amazon tomorrow. You can't lose, Bernanke promises

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:25 | 3291859 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Who the fuck wants to gamble in a rigged casino where the bosses can change the rules of the game at any time?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:30 | 3291875 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Me, double down on the don't pass line 6 times at a $5 starting fee, it's good fun all day long.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 22:57 | 3292462 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Yeah McMolotov, I mean the writing is on the wall, who in their right mind would want to enter this market? everything points to getting out IMO.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 22:58 | 3292466 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

If you don't hold it, you don't have it...?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:26 | 3291862 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Bitcoins ... get 'em while they're hot!

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 05:57 | 3293048 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

I´ll stick with Phyzz.

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 21:41 | 3294579 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I call it the NERD COIN.
Common people will never get into them because it's to complicated and to much of a illusion.
Buy the freaking silver and gold. for one, because once you have them your money is off the grid.
And having money outside the system is super important rig now. whatever else will be taxes into oblivion to keep the circus going untill the storm brings down the tent and causes a unseen panick.
Even if it's just a few thousand dollars, you'll be able to buy a shit load of assets with it in the future.
Europe is toast, America is close. Time is running out on a shitload of economies. 2 to 3 more years and you'll be crying if you didn't buy the real stuff.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:29 | 3291874 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Manipulated markets are their own worst enemies.  Suicide is painless ....

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:30 | 3291876 Hopium Dealer
Hopium Dealer's picture

Suckers: one is born every minute.

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 21:42 | 3294580 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Suckers, you don't marry them but they make great girlfriends!!!!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:33 | 3291879 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I live in reality, and will go to the "Big House" for 10-20 for the shenanigans the Central Bankers are pulling right now. Technocrats are cross collateralizing (so called assets) that they have zero control over. (sound familiar?)

   To make things even more tenuous, these "ghost assets" are levered to the hilt. I said it before, and will say it again. "The Serfs get hungry and all bets are off"! The global banking cartel can't print their way out of this next "BLOWOUT"!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:35 | 3291897 fuu
fuu's picture

Yay you have an avatar!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:43 | 3291919 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Silver Samurai.  All you fellow ZHers taught me well. ;-)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:29 | 3292049 fuu
fuu's picture

Meiyo.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:41 | 3292077 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Arigato. Too lazy for the over- score alt code lookup. ?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:08 | 3292141 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Real people do not need avatars. We have paper bags.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:57 | 3291945 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Golden time to get 'real' then.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:10 | 3291981 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Any suggestions?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:08 | 3291975 ekm
ekm's picture

Potential for 20% drop in one day.

this has come down to primary dealers and hft.

 

Everybody else is dead

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:26 | 3292042 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

But PDs and HFTs aren't allowed to crash the market unless Congress stands up to Wall St.

That's not happening again.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 23:05 | 3292479 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

How can one tell the difference between Congress/Senate and Wall St? It's got all the making of a joke right?

Last time I saw Jonny Corzin he was laying out on a fucking beach, what happened?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:33 | 3291889 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is literally living in the twilight zone. Everyone, no matter what their job is or financial IQ imay be, knows we are watching a rigged casino in action. Most people I know that are in the market are scared to sell because once they go to cash they are afraid they will have to chase it back later. Anyone not in the market is not going anywhere near this thing. No bids, no asks.

I get that it is just a bunch of PD's flipping this hot potato back and forth and whenever one of them drops it Ben and Kevin hacky sack it back up to them.

Stocks are still at their highs. crude is now dropping. Metals smoked. Even bonds and the dollar are rallying. Ben has his cake and is eating it too. All while people here and everywhere else go broke one by one, and people just put up with it.

I will be bouncing off a room of rubber walls by the time this gets to the next phase. 

 

 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:58 | 3291909 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

How can you invest in anything when fundamentals simply don't matter at all? The brain trust at CNBS had a piece asking the question. " Is the market trading on the fundamentals or the fed?" DUH!!!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:23 | 3292275 Dealer
Dealer's picture

But damn, Maria Bartiromo has a great set of DSLs!!!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:42 | 3291914 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

"Ben has his cake and is eating it too."

He may be now, but if the economy tanks again and unemployment rises significantly, which is looking increasingly likely, he going to sweating like a dog s******* peach pits.

 

 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:45 | 3291923 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

we are in a depression right now. Unemployment is substantially higher than reported and inflation is substantially higher than reported. The key is to never report it and make sure algos' never get to trade off real info. The question is what, if anything, breaks that chain. What causes that moment? Someone has to freak out, and why would they knowing Bernak is standing right behind them?

But Italy and Spain etc. supposedly have 25% unemployment and up intil just recently even their equity markets have rallied and their funding costs were low. It's fundamentally insane.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:02 | 3291958 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

In a CNN Money article about the decline in income (casually shrugged off), there was this:

"All of that said, consumers are benefiting from a housing recovery and rising stock prices. The Consumer Confidence Index rose in February, showing that Americans are more upbeat about the economy than they have been in two months."

The media really are propagandizing the hell out of us. I have no idea how long this can last, but I honestly think it's the only thing holding back some serious shit at this point. Average Americans are confused because the media are painting this narrative of a recovery but they aren't seeing it themselves. How long until we reach critical mass and enough people start to question this bullshit?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:33 | 3292060 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I refer you to the great philosopher Michael Jackson, and his magnum opus, "Man in the Mirror."

In other words, NEVER.

Divide and conquer has succeeded, with the masses externalizing ALL of their problems by laying the blame upon others. Introspection? Not gonna happen.

Realize that many, many people believe that JFK was taken out by others operating within the government, yet this criminality is ignored by most, instead choosing to argue over trivial MSM talking-points.

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 06:15 | 3293053 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

There are more ways than one to reach critical mass.  One way it can be reached is when interest rates on T-Bonds are forced higher.  This will force draconian cuts to the federal government´s budget that will make sequestration look like coupon savings.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:06 | 3291968 ekm
ekm's picture

there's no more 'ask'.
It's only 'bid'.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:11 | 3291984 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

"What causes that moment? Someone has to freak out, and why would they knowing Bernak is standing right behind them?"

Yes, my feelings, exactly, but yet it feels to me as if things are changing, or that something is going to change it soon.  I just don't know what it will be. 

If people lose confidence in the $, obviously, that would break the chain, but it seems unlikely in the near term.  What seems more likely is a further downturn in the economy, followed by increased disillusionment in QE.  Which force will win out, QE infinity or no more QE?  Who knows?  

More QE would lead to greater disconnect between Wall Street and main street, and no more QE would result in a re-connect that would be highly painful for WS in the short-term.  

My feeling is that many people are getting sick of the disconnect and won’t stomach much more of it.  But at the same time, stopping QE is unthinkable to TPTB.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:50 | 3292103 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

For the same reason we never had nuclear war with the USSR, I doubt any major country will pull the plug on the dollar: Mutually Assured Destruction.

 I do like David Walker's take on things though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuCgxDbOgqM

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:34 | 3292066 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

'QE infinity or no more QE?'

That's easy.

No more QE means the Fed allows the economic chips to fall where they may. If they do that, all hell breaks loose, government spending stops, and the country begins to outright default on it's debts. Answer: the Fed will never do that. Government spending must be covered by Fed money printing at all costs. The Fed is cornered. It has no other option. Jawboning by fed officials otherwise is merely posturing for short term effect. Doing anything else means the jig is up.

Ben Bernanke is a bearded dwarf, trapped in his room, writing in a book. He writes:

"We cannot get out. We cannot get out. They have taken the bridge and Second Hall . . . the end comes soon. We hear drums, drums in the deep. We cannot get out..."

"They are coming."

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:51 | 3291935 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You can have your cheese, or you can have your cake, or you can have your cheesecake.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:32 | 3292056 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Ben has his cake and is eating it too."

Dyslexic?  The trick is to "eat it and have it too". 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:56 | 3291943 economessed
economessed's picture

It's not a market.  It's a crime scene.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:34 | 3291891 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

What is this word "investing" you speak about?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:35 | 3291896 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Ben laughs as he takes money from your future and puts you in the market regardless of what you say or care about

You think you're out, but Ben pulls you back in

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:36 | 3291900 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

It's not just a lost of interest, it's called "paying the bills".

Oh, and Gold and Silver.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:37 | 3291905 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The fun and games are over. Sequester signals a turn: austerity for the rest of us. Monetary mana for the ever-richer few.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:41 | 3291915 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's been austerity for the rest of us for a long time now.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:44 | 3291913 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

I searched for "stocks" and "bonds" and I kept ending up at fed.gov with a warning stating that the site is unsuitable for all persons who might be shocked by perverse behaviour of the most egregious kind; humiliation, bondage, slavery and absolutely no discipline.   

The site had a picture of Ben in a pimp suit so I assumed I was in the right place.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:49 | 3291931 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Let's be fair! If your not in it you can't Win it!
The bible ( bernanke) tells me so. It Could be You!
Too many cliches? I just can't get enough!
Many a tear has to fall but it's all in the Game.
Kill me quick for cryin out loud.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:54 | 3291939 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I take no stock in their Ponzi Inc.

Just got a call that my Precious shipment has finally arrived.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:57 | 3291941 drink or die
drink or die's picture

As much as Robotrader pissed everyone off, he was right about one thing.  You can be pessimistic all you want, but when the game is this rigged, there is money to be made as long as you bet on the system.

 

At least right up until it doesn't work anymore and you lose everything.  But UNTIL then....

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 18:59 | 3291946 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

I've rotated out of FRNs and into a whole myriad of fun, tangible things... ;)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:05 | 3291953 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Someone else said it already, but, it's worth repeating. "We won't be fooled again."

The challenge now is to find alternatives so we can keep our distance from the scam that the financial markets have become. I love a good challenge.

P.S. "Asset Gathering"; the most innovative thing Wall Street does is keep coming up with new words and phrases for stealing. 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:34 | 3292046 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

10 years ago, an HP engineering friend observed in a meeting: "So, Leveraging is no longer for physics?  In new corporate speak-easy, it can now mean... to Plagiarize, Borrow, Copy or Steal?"  Answer: pause... "Pretty much."

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:01 | 3291956 Brian
Brian's picture

Bitcoin is not the future digital currency.

Rays, the currency of the Virtual World Web has been providing a 7% ROI for several years and has more than 11 million users.  Very under-the-radar, but I've been super impressed: http://www.utherverse.com/net/market/index.aspx

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:38 | 3292090 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Bitcoin is not the future digital currency." 

Correct.  You are.  Or will be.  By the time the Central Banksters are through with us, we'll all be walking, talking TwoBitcoins.  No paper, gold or silver required.  Just a biometric ID.  Call it... "Inside 'er intel".  ;-)

Debit will be work done, Credit will be promise of work owed in the near future (1-7 yrs), and Debt will be work owed in the medium-to-distant future (7-30 yrs).  Oh, don't worry, we'll all have plenty of work, just not at today's rates.  -- 'Pharaoh Bankfine' (codename)

You heard it here first, 'bitchez'

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:04 | 3291960 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

It would be "nice" to understand/define........ "interest in 'stocks' and 'bonds'"

Does this represent how many times those words are searched on google, and if that is the case what conclusions can you realistically draw from that????????

 


Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:28 | 3291977 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tyler posted that fantastic WMT article this week, and I went back to the same store with my Mother to prove a point. She lives 4 miles up the road from me. She is slowly converting back to {i-reality}.

 Most of the comments from Z/H posters were spot on! The produce and fresh meat sections were SPARCE! I mean close to empty!

   Most all non-perishable edibles were jacked up in price! (what was left of them). Most shelf facings were front stacked or compressed to give a full illusion. Even the beer/wine section was pathetic! Basic brands were blown out, and mixed with non competing brands.

   We spent $100 just for the hell of it. We purchased 34 items. I bought a 3 pack of Negro Modelo(24oz cans), Peanuts,A couple of cans of chilli(B-B-Q). She bought some basic shit. (I was watching the markets on my Droid). We both walked out of the store and said...

   ( Fuck This Shit) Vons up the street is cheaper in the long run. Go Pound sand Wall Mart! You suck! P.S. hire some people that know how to price items.  That stupid color coded bullshit sale theme SUCKS!  I'm going to Costco, Sunday to do some proper shopping!

    I could go on and on about my experience @ WMT for a week. Life's too short. Clip coupons and support your local "Grocery Store".

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:09 | 3291979 JR
JR's picture

Still spooked by STOCKS?

How to get over your

Fears and learn to love

The market again. p24

The frightened face of a Marvel comic book pop art blonde on Kiplinger’s April 2013 cover takes the reader into more comic art figures inside lamenting, “I want to go back to stocks but can I take it?”

And after the in-depth article illustrates how to learn to love stocks again, the beautiful Roy Liechtenstein–style (In the car) blonde, now serene and happy with a bright setting sun beaming through the paned window, ends with the cheerful thought: “Given my choices Mr. Market doesn’t look so bad.”

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:07 | 3292138 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Just read that the other day. The tone was very much that if you can't beat em, join em- the waters warm...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:09 | 3291980 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Dos Equis Man to brokers: "Stay thirsty, my friends"

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:15 | 3291995 koolkurkle
koolkurkle's picture

If Google Trends is to be believed, people are also rotating out of air travel into trains and buses.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:AIRTVL

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 23:29 | 3292567 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

They certainly are in the NYC to Boston and NYC to Wash DC route.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:16 | 3292001 venturen
venturen's picture

But the HFT traders make up for it....rehypothecated levered money can be traded 1000 times a second!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 19:17 | 3292009 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

OT, but it goes along with the rest of the BS from this .gov bunch. One year ago, the Cincinnati/NKY area got hit by a series of tornadoes. People died, dump trucks got carried hundreds of feet over trees, and houses leveled. My own house ended up needing a new roof, but nobody hurt- we were six miles away from the main area of damage and my insurance made things right. The tornado straddled back and forth across the Ohio river. One town (Moscow) was destroyed and has continuously been refused FEMA aid. It is in Ohio (republican governor). My side of the river (Kentucky) has a democrat governor. We got millions in aid, the poor shlubs over the river didn't get a dime. Politics??? Obama is a vindictive asshole. We can say nobody should get aid and everyone should take care of their own insurance/finances (I do); but, to do what has been done in picking winners and losers like this is despicable. But then again, picking winners and losers is all Obama/Bernanke ever do, so, maybe not off topic after all...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 20:06 | 3292132 Herkimer Jerkimer
Herkimer Jerkimer's picture

 

Muppet King here!

 

Do. The. Math.

Baby-boomers. 1945-1965. The real hump in the graph is about 48-55. You naughty little soldiers, you!

They started retiring at about 60-63, not 65. Think all those teachers and cops and such.

45+60 equals 2005.

The conversation in 2004 went like this:

"Martha! We just made it through another ree-cession! I can't take this bullshit anymore!

"I agree Johnathan!"

"Pull'er out!"

 

And thus ended the great stock investment of the boomers.

 

•?•
V-V

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:35 | 3292301 AlltheWine
Sat, 03/02/2013 - 00:03 | 3292664 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

That Sunday night announcement will come again...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!