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Did JPM's CIO Intentionally Start The Margin Call Avalanche That Crushed Lehman?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is conventional wisdom that in the days leading to Lehman's bankruptcy filing on the night of September 15, 2008, sheer panic and utter confusion ruled ever back- and middle-office, over concerns that a counterparty, any counterparty, but especially Lehman, would end up being "not money good", and the result was that trigger-happy margin clerks had the potential to make or break a company, by demanding just enough variation margin that would send the notice recipient promptly into bankruptcy. It is also conventional wisdom, that it was precisely several such margin calls mostly out of JPMorgan that precipitated the Chapter 7 filing by Lehman brothers, as the firm was finally unable to mask the fact that it was terminally overlevered, and even more terminally illiquid. It is certainly conventional wisdom, that Lehman was certainly massively overlevered, holding billions of overmarked CMBS on its balance sheet, and was doing everything in its power to hold on to precious liquidity, taking every opportunity to window dress its balance sheet as far better than it truly was (Repo 105 at the end of every quarter promptly comes to mind), over fears of avoiding precisely such a margin call onslaught, where the first margin call would cascade into many, likely lethal, margin calls.

Which is why, over four years after the filing of Lehman's bankruptcy and the fight for who was responsible for what in the Lehman Chapter 7 saga still waging, most actively between the Lehman creditor estate and tri-party repo stalwart JP Morgan, we were not surprised to learn that the Lehman estate had attempted to force yet another sworn testimony from a (former) employee of JP Morgan, in hopes of catching the firm as engaging in a malicious act of defrauding Lehman of precious liquidity in its final hours, or said in layman's terms, forcing it to liquidate.

What did catch our attention was that Lehman named the infamous JPM Chief Investment Office, and specifically its very infamous trader Bruno Iksil, accountable along with others for the London Whale fiasco, as the person responsible for an initial margin call to the tune of $273.3 million, made the same day "that JPMorgan made its first of two demands that week each for $5 billion of extra cash collateral that it had no right to obtain and that drained Lehman of $8.6 billion" (as per the Lehman filing). One could make the argument that this initial margin call was the straw that broke the camel's back, as in the avalanche of money requests, every dollar flowing out of Lehman may have been the one that pushed it under.

If, of course, the Lehman estate claim was credible.

At this point, virtually everyone in the media said "no way" and moved on: this has to be just another desperate attempt by the Lehman unsecureds to force a settlement from JPM, and a few more cent recovery on the bonds. After all, how on earth can someone hold now former JPM employee Bruno Iksil accountable for what he did nearly 5 years ago (however still within the statute of limitations). We, too, almost ignored the story as just too incredible to be true.

Almost.

And then we decided to do some digging.

What we found was stunning, and frankly shocking, because it appears that the Lehman estate was absolutely correct.

In other words, a chronological forensic analysis of the events surrounding the margin call in question confirm, beyond a shadow of a doubt that the margin call issued by JP Morgan's CIO unit was absolutely unwarranted.

But it gets worse - because the mistake that led to the issuance of what may have been the defining margin call that was the beginning of the end of Lehman, was so ridiculously naive, and idiotic, that we have a hard time believing it was made in good faith, even if it JPMorgan tries to put the blame on some 19 year old NYU intern as being responsible. In fact, we have an easier time believing that the margin call was purposeful, malicious and made with full intent to destroy Lehman, which in turn would mean that, despite the repeated mockery of even the sophisticated media, Lehman may well have been the mark of a JPM-spearheaded campaign to force the bank to shutter as margin call after margin call led it to lose all liquidity.

So what exactly happened? Here are the events as seen by the Lehman side:

On September 9, 2008, the same day that JPMorgan made its initial demand for $5 billion of additional collateral and extracted new one-sided legal agreements from Lehman, JPMorgan also insisted that Lehman post $273.3 million before close of business as derivatives variation margin. The $273.3 million derivative margin demand was primarily attributable to three disputed trades which Mr. Iksil managed or discussed with Lehman. Lehman was certain that JPMorgan's marks were erroneous and that in fact Lehman owed no additional margin. All three CDS referenced a well known and liquid index for which readily-available third party valuations corroborated Lehman’s marks, not JPMorgan’s, which were off by $273.3 million. Nevertheless, Lehman bowed to pressure from JPMorgan executives, including Investment Bank Chief Risk Officer John Hogan, to accept JPMorgan's marks and immediately post the requisite collateral. Accordingly Lehman sent the $273.3 million demanded.  That JPMorgan was able to force Lehman’s compliance is particularly telling considering JPMorgan’s marks were so clearly wrong.

 

The trades primary responsible for the $273.3 million derivatives margin dispute were 3 CDS index tranche trades booked through JPMorgan’s CIO, two of which were managed by Mr. Iksil. Lehman had repeatedly asked Mr. Iksil to correct the mark on the third large disputed trade throughout August and early September without success. Contemporaneous emails attached here reflect how JPMorgan’s mismarks grew into a multi-month ordeal due to the inaction and unresponsiveness of JPMorgan, and of Mr. Iksil in particular. 

 

On September 10, 2008, Lehman’s relationship, operations, and trading personnel mobilized to resolve the mismarks of Mr. Iksil’s trades and secure the return of the nearly 300 million dollars in excess collateral they had been pressured to post to JPMorgan the day before.

 

Late in the morning on September 10, Lehman reached out once again to Mr. Iksil to request that he correct his marks. This time, Mr. Iksil immediately referred Lehman to a JPMorgan colleague who conceded within minutes that Lehman's marks were correct and an error on JPMorgan's side had caused the problem. Less than an hour later JPMorgan agreed in full to Lehman's September 10 collateral call, which included JPMorgan returning the entire $273.3 million Lehman had delivered to JPMorgan the day before.

 

That JPMorgan would run roughshod over Lehman’s objections and insist on getting collateral immediately based on marks that were so quickly seen to be erroneous provide a window into JPMorgan’s mindset and operating procedures the week prior to LBHI’s bankruptcy: Get cash now, ask questions later. JPMorgan has taken the position in this litigation that JPMorgan was solicitous of Lehman’s welfare and demanded collateral only after carefully calculating the amount required. Yet, JPMorgan failed to correct its marks despite weeks of requests to do so and allowed a valuation dispute to fester for nearly a month. And on September 9, 2008, although even the most minimal diligence would have revealed JPMorgan was in the wrong, JPMorgan demanded that Lehman accept JPMorgan’s marks and post $273.3 million in disputed collateral overnight. That demand came on the very same day that JPMorgan made its first of two demands that week each for $5 billion of extra cash collateral that it had no right to obtain and that drained Lehman of $8.6 billion.

What, specifically, were the CDX trades in question? They were all three different CDX HY8 5 year 0-10 tranche index trades, which Lehman had bought from Bruno Iksil. Here they are, from one of the exhibit emails, also showing the massive MTM diveregence between the JPM and Lehman marks.

Although perhaps the best way to show this is from this table which summarizes the email from Lehman's CDX trader (24 year old) Zahid Hassan who shows the drastic change in MTM between Lehman and JPM on the CDX tranches:

Basically, what any credit trader can figure out happened here after looking at the table above for more than 5 seconds, and looking at the variation in Leh vs JPM marks, is that whereas Lehman was marking its HY8 exposure correctly, and in line with where MarkIt and other pricing databases would have it, what JPM did was take the upfront priced index and price at 1 par minus price! In other words, where Lehman had it priced at 83.05%, what JPM wanted to do was express a price of 1-19.42%, or 81.58; instead the JPM front, middle and back office chain of command made a mistake so rookie it is impossible it was an error, and it appears to have been maliciously intended to force a liquidity event. Because what drove this massive margin call on this very liquid (at the time) index is because JPM had it suddenly repriced in MTM from 83 to 19 when what JPM really wanted was to reprice it from 83 to 81!

In other words, literally overnight, instead of pricing Lehman's paid upfront collateral at Price, JPM decided, for whatever reason, to revalue  it at 1-Price!

The result, had JPM correctly calculated the MTM, would have been a variation margin call of just $6 million: some $257 million less than what JPM demanded from the cash-strapped company!

While we do not know if the $257 million extra in cash that Lehman would have retained on its books would have avoided the subsequent $10 billion in JPM margin calls, or if it would have avoided the firm's bankruptcy as the final outcome, we know we are, and Lehman, are right in alleging that it was JPM's fault in completely screwing up the calculation that led to the massive margin call. Here is the Bloomberg Chat transcript (Lehman Exhibit M) between Lehman (again very, very young CDX trader) Zahid Hassan, and Bruno Iksil first, and then Iksil's supervisor in London, Luis Buraya:

The chat above took place at 11:40 am on Wednesday, September 10: two days before the weekend which was Lehman's last.  What we learn from the transcript is threefold: first Lehman was incorrectly margined to the tune of $263 million. JPMorgan admits as much; second, by the time JPM admitted it was wrong, the margin request had already been satisfied, and margin clerks in other divisions were scrambling to come up with other comparably fictitious variation margin demands, such as those which saw JPM demanding extracting nearly $10 billion in liquidity from Lehman in the next 48 hours which culminated with Lehman's Chapter 7. FInally, the "guy" responsible was not "collateral" but CIO, meaning the division that was supposed to hedge, but did anything but when it blew up after attempting to corner the HY9 market last year, had other less noble uses too: to destroy the competition by commencing an avalanche of unjustified margin calls!

Lehman's filing summarizes it as much in the following:

The $273.3 million collateral dispute is highly relevant to this litigation over JPMorgan’s improper cash collateral demands that same week, which deprived Lehman of desperately needed liquidity and precipitated Lehman’s exigent bankruptcy filing. First, the backdrop to the dispute illustrates that there was a well developed market-standard practice for the calculation and exchange of collateral in support of derivatives transactions, which is specified in the ISDA Master Agreement and Credit Support Annex (“CSA”) executed between the parties and involves daily exchange of collateral based on the current net mark-to-market value of the positions. The daily collateral calls under the CSAs which were made and met throughout the week, and the procedures by which the $273.3 million dispute was ultimately resolved, indicate that during the week of September 8 – 12 JPMorgan adhered to the CSA framework for the collateralization of counterparty derivatives exposure to Lehman. Even the $273.3 demand, an example as unreasonable as they come, was tied to the marks (albeit incorrect) on particular trades and posted and returned via the CSA framework. JPMorgan’s demand for $5 billion on September 9, which JPMorgan claims it made in significant part to collateralize its purported derivatives exposure to Lehman, was entirely outside the ISDA/CSA framework and represented a dramatic departure from commercial practice for collateralization of derivatives exposure. Second, the episode shows that during the week of September 8 – 12 JPMorgan was willing to override standard commercial procedure by insisting that any collateral disputes be immediately resolved in its favor. Third, it illustrates Lehman’s complete vulnerability to JPMorgan’s bullying behavior. Just as with the $8.6 billion, Lehman lacked any choice other than to capitulate to demands it knew were baseless, in light of JPMorgan’s power to deal Lehman a death blow by ceasing to trade or clear. Finally, it shows that JPMorgan’s exposure calculation methods were highly suspect – a point with obvious relevance to this litigation over two demands for collateral in round $5 billion increments, unaccompanied by any calculation or documentation of exposure.

To conclude: a variation margin call, which we now know beyond a reasonable doubt, was erroneous and had no basis in reality, launched by JPM's CIO is what started the cash outflow from Lehman, and was followed by two other comparable $5 billion margin calls, which may well have had the same totally erroneous justification to them. But Lehman had no choice: even then saying no to the uber-behemoth and tri-party repo guardian JPM was tantamount to suicide anyway.

Any by the close of trading on Friday everyone else on Wall Street was doing what JPM did: demanding hundreds of millions and billions in margin from Lehman, at which point seeking the culprit for what 48 short hours later would be the biggest bankruptcy in history, was a moot point.

By then the game was over, and JPM's CIO had won, courtesy of a ruse so pathetic it was either outright idiotic, or conceived with the most despicable of destructive intentions. And then we remember that it is the same uber-sophisticated CIO unit that for years was misreporting its VaR because of a simple excel transposition error which nobody had bothered to check!

So we wonder: should we attribute to malice and Jamie Dimon's bloodthirst what sheer, brutal JPMorganite incompetence can explain far more simply? But then we also wonder: is it also purely a coincidence that JPM's largest gold vault in the world is located inches away from the gold vault of the New York Fed...

And everything is once again crystal clear.

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Sun, 03/03/2013 - 19:51 | 3296201 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Nothing a good noose couldn't fix.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 19:56 | 3296214 Caged Monkey
Caged Monkey's picture

"Nothing a good noose couldn't fix."

That's what David Carradine said.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:04 | 3296231 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

There's another one just like em waiting to come up.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:47 | 3296480 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Yep, always someone waiting in the wings to assume command....

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 22:29 | 3296611 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

The blogs have been talking about the Lehman hit by JPM for years. This is nothing new and should not be the least bit surprising to the bitchez at ZH. We all knew. 

Just use Cassius's line: "cui bono"?

The answer is blatantly obvious. 

Now the REAL question is.......will any bankster go to jail?

(insert crickets chirping here)

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 09:44 | 3297431 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

From "No Country For Old Men":

"He's got some hard bark on 'im."

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 19:56 | 3296205 Racer
Racer's picture

Probably had some sort of private Goa'uld feud

But not surprising at all.. the eleeches think they are gods.. look at Trump and the way he treated the people of Scotland about the golf course he wanted to build

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:29 | 3296304 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

To me it almost looks like ZH wants to start a feud with JPM. All these JPM articles have been popping up here lately. Keep 'em coming. Maybe some msm presstitute picks something up and we're getting something going...

What about some insight on the CFTC silver investigation, Tylers?

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:18 | 3296402 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Maybe JPM is at the center of the economic issues facing the world.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 22:26 | 3296602 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

I thought it was GS...live and learn.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 23:36 | 3296783 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

There's room at the center for more than one entity.  It's a big world out there.

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 04:57 | 3297152 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

they have different specialities. JPM's SharkBoy is way bloodthirstier than his peers, and he has our Lady of Pain

the squid is better at political work peddling her financial weapons in the various provinces of the empire

at the end, whoever controls 80% of all dozens trillions derivatives of the world sees where the cookie could crumble - and that's five megabanks

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 08:46 | 3297322 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

GS

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 22:39 | 3296638 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

''I knew it was Barzini all along"

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 23:00 | 3296689 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"there are no WMD's in Iraq. But we did find a few on Wall Street...

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 01:05 | 3296950 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Evil Episcopalians!

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 23:14 | 3296727 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

To poke at JPM is to poke at the NY Fed is to poke at the Fed is to poke at the US Government.

Gotta start somewhere with the facts and build from there.

Kudos, ZH.

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 07:54 | 3297274 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Doesn't JP run the SNAP program? We will sell our aircraft carriers to China before we let old JP go down.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:02 | 3296213 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

I always thought that this whole thing was started by a grudge expressed as a business action against Penis Wrinkle, er, Dick Fuld.   He was despised by many in the circle jerk of power that was (and is): apparently his name suited his personality and he would not play by the circle jerks' rules.  Should we be surprised to find that it was a personal move that has started this prolonged demise?

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:02 | 3296228 knukles
knukles's picture

Nope.
And who might we ask was the biggest competitive threat to Goldilocks and the Morgue in the fixed income bidniz?

Why, Lehman Brothers.

Du-fing-h

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 19:58 | 3296219 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

The problem with the affectation of wealth is that any chink in the armor comes with a deep implication of insolvency.

Lehman caved because of appearances, despite the Morgue being as wrong as Iksil's dumbass trade.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:01 | 3296226 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Wow. This is incredible. I suppose high leverage exposes you to...vicissitudes...such as being predated upon.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:04 | 3296234 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It's "Mean Girls" with pinstripes.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:47 | 3296478 orez65
orez65's picture

Lehman bent over.

It was just a matter of time until someone stuck it in.

Our financial system is just one giant fraud being played by criminals.

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 04:25 | 3297136 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

u can say that again. But it's still +1/-1

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 07:39 | 3297256 What is The Hedge
What is The Hedge's picture

Why do you think they use the phrase, "Exposed to risk?"

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:47 | 3296479 orez65
orez65's picture

Lehman bent over.

It was just a matter of time until someone stuck it in.

Our financial system is just one giant fraud being played by criminals.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:49 | 3296489 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

My thoughts,as well. It also seems a bit of a conflict of interest when one has to trade with and through a potential predator and competitor.

Mon, 03/04/2013 - 05:23 | 3297164 bigyimmy007
bigyimmy007's picture

Yeah from the chatlog it almost looks civil.

"Oh can you correct your error please?"

"Sure, I'll get right on that."

Then 2 days later "...Not! GOTCHA BITCH!"

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:02 | 3296227 Pine Creek
Pine Creek's picture

It would not be the first time. JPM (and DB) issued egregious margin calls on a certain PE sponsored public fund during Feb and Mar 2008.

 

 

 

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:04 | 3296233 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

The only question is there any criminality here that the SEC and DOJ can't ignore so when they do they can be shown up yet again as being nothing more than mob enforcers disguised as regulators and law officials?

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:07 | 3296239 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

He'd fuck a cat to make a buck.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:14 | 3296256 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

He did...

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:11 | 3296242 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

its a plan bitchezzz --- >> implode economy, bankrupt everything and buy it cheap.. that includes government. Finance and build up China, de industrialise US and increase value of Chinese investment --- >> pump USD and Stock Markets to remove every last bit of "value" prior to full implosion. Then wheel zee gold out and back a new currency with it.. Purchase the whole word and transfer asset holdings from zee gold to global property and infrastructure and the means of production.

Get all the slaves wearing ID cards and paying taxes.

Global Domination by design! Could it happen any other way?

Great reporting by ZH

Oh and could it be the remains of Lehman and all the others JPM has screwed over that are ingaged in taking Silver up and out?

 

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:23 | 3296287 Acet
Acet's picture

It certainly explains why the Morgue reactivated in 2011 the PM vault that's connected to the NY Fed's vault and also (earlier) got a nice little PM vault in London connected via the Waterloo and City tube line to the BoE vault.

It's becoming very clear that the endgame is to gain posssession of all those tons of barbarous relic that the sucker governments entrusted to the care of the British and the American central banks. Quite possibly when it all comes to light that the Gold ain't there anymore, revolutions will be triggered in many of those countries - just more opportunities for rape by the likes of the Morgue.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:30 | 3296442 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

... disarm the peasants.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:58 | 3296520 Tursas
Tursas's picture

We have pitchforks!

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:09 | 3296244 ekm
ekm's picture

I love zerohedge, I love it.

Most of my conjectures based on hours and hours of research are being proven by ZH.

As I've been saying, Lehman was let go in order to crap the market, since with Bear Stearns market did not crap. Lehman was the sacrificial lamb.

 

Now we are exactly like in 2008. Primary Dealers own everything and there's nothing left to trade. Somebody has to die thus unloading the stocks into the market, thus crapping the market.

 

And this time I think 2 or 3 non US based primary dealers will be voted out, LITERALLY.

I think it's the turn of Deutsche Securities an RBS Securities to crap out. That's why I say, QE is over, nothing left to buy. Time for few funerals.

 

Again, thank you Zerohedge, thx a lot.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:14 | 3296250 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Agreed!

apart from the no more QE part.. i think that comes after they inflated their pockets a bit more and backed wth Gold, then they will allow major deflation and asset "value" destruction.. they will then buy everything. Straight forward really.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:22 | 3296270 ekm
ekm's picture

VonManstein.

Money is printed by buying something. Gov + Fed  +Primary dealers own everything, bought everything.

HFT companies are dying due to lack of stocks to steal from. Brokerages and hedge funds are closing down due to lack of securities to trade.

 

Even Seth Klarman complained that the Gov has left little for him to buy and sell.

It's over. The beauty of open ended QE is that it can stop at any time. QE is over, it's done.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 20:34 | 3296308 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Indeed, "open ended" does not suggest a date of completion. However, it has a while to run yet before they pull the plug. Its about financing Gov nothing else.

Can you just help me understand your point a little better please. I agree with the premis that "open ended" can stop at any time but im not sure what you are exactly saying...

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:09 | 3296341 ekm
ekm's picture

 

Sure.

I've been saying for a long time already that QE has got nothing to do with gov funding, but it aims at providing primary dealers with cash to pay for continuing losses for SWAPS.

 

No different compared to run up to 2008. The Fed did QE up to 2008 also. Have you noticed it's only SMALL primary dealers who go down, Bear Sterns, Lehman, MFG. The goal is to protect JPM, GS and probably C, but JPM and GS are UNTOUCHABLE, JPM more that GS I'd say.

That's why somebody as clueless as Dimon is running that place. The man is totally clueless, professional wise. He doesn't even understand derivatives as Janet Tavakoli discovered. He's a puppet.

 

However, it gets to a point, same as in 2008, the EXCESSIVE CASH in the market bought up all stocks and commodities, hence the economy contracted and there was nothing left over for wall street to trade with.


Hence, somewhere there was a WEAKEST LINK VOTE OUT, literally. BS was voted out, then Lehman, then MFG later. MFG is like Bear Stearns, didn't do much to crap the market.

A tripple Lehman is in the works, I'd say.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:12 | 3296391 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Interesting points nicely made. I will continue to listen.

  Though still, suggesting QE has nothing to do with financing Gov seems a little stretched to me. It has to be the primary reason because without it the US government would go bankrupt overnight, and all the Banks would follow as the debt would consume all.

I think there are obvious benefactors of QE and JPM GS and all the rest of it and i agree they will blow some finance house or something for reasons you state but...

I am scratching my head now

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:34 | 3296407 ekm
ekm's picture

VonManstein

 

The US gov does NOT need $85b/month buying MBSs worth few cents/dollar.

 

Primary Dealers are the ones needing that money.

They need at least 85b/month to do CDS payouts. Remember AIG?

 

And there is only one indication and only one: CRUDE OIL PRICE.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:36 | 3296455 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Agreed MBS is for that purpose only.

Elaborate re crude oil

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:46 | 3296467 ekm
ekm's picture

Check this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-03/time-its-same-and-thats-not-goo...

 

Crude oil is the energy for the real economy. I do not check stock market futures or exchange rates, I only check crude oil price, as I'm doing right now.

Economy is in severe contraction due to crude oil shortage from the real economy. Same as in the run up of 2008, storages onshore and offshore are exploding.

And again, same as in 2008, a lot of money printed went to crude oil, hence real economy is in contraction, forget about BLS data.

 

They are obligated to stop QE due to artificial shortage of energy. That is the absolute most important indicator to gauge QE continuity.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 21:49 | 3296493 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

not understanding this "crude oil shortage from real economy" doesn’t the storage of crude suggest less demand and thus lower prices?

or are you saying that as the Crude is not being used due to weak economic activity its being speculated with, bid up, rather than consumed?

We have over supply.  Agreed.

we have higher prices. We can see that.

What is the dynamic here?

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 22:02 | 3296518 ekm
ekm's picture

Typical, typical, typical mistake due to media and those idiotic teaching from Keynes, a man who lost his money trading stocks and had to be bailed out by his uncle.

 

TO SAY THERE'S NO DEMAND FOR CRUDE OIL IS EQUAL TO SAYING THERE'S NO DEMAND FOR AIR TO BREATHE.

 

People will consume as much oil as given to them. The issue is not lack of demand. The issue is lack of supply oF crude oil into the CONSUMPTION market.

 

There's nothing more IDIOTIC than Keyne's AGGREGATE DEMAND.

 

They say there's no aggregate demand. I say bullshit. There truth is that there is no aggregate supply. If Daimler overproduces Mercedeses and sells them at $100/month wouldn't everybody buy one?

 

Have you noticed laptops and PC prices? There's an oversupply.

 

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 22:04 | 3296540 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

No i get you, kind of. Im almost understanding. Obviosuly no demand would be stupid, price is the problem. Agreed.

Ok, but what is the dynamic that is elevating oil prices in this environemt?

where is all the supply at? why is it being stored and not sold? this is where im losing you.

explain this "no aggregate supply" situation to me. Supply is cut? clear this up for me and i will go away a wiser man, so it seems.

Sun, 03/03/2013 - 22:16 | 3296568 ekm
ekm's picture

Perfect. Money flowchart:

- Fed - Primary Dealer - Winning CDS counterparty

 

Q: What does one do with huge amounts of excessive money? One can't put hundreds of billions in a savings account at the local bank.

A: (same as in the run up of 2008) Buy and store commodities like gold, silver, crude oil, copper, iron ore you name it, REAL STUFF, NOT ELECTRONs IN AETHER.

 

However, none of the above commodities has an immediate effect except for CRUDE OIL. Primary Dealers, particularly JPm and GS as well as big CDS winning counterparties have been buying crude oil and storing it. What else to do with all that money?

Nothing different from 2008 run up.

 

That's why WTI is in Contango, due to huge ONSHORE storage capabilities in USA and Brent is in Backwardation due to lack of huge ONSHORE storage spaces in Europe. Iran issue adds to it, but it is not the main factor.

 

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