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Equity 'Panic-To-Euphoria' Shift Signals Key Inflection Point
As investors (and the risk asset markets they inhabit) have recovered from their deep trough of panic, Credit Suisse believes the recovery has followed a somewhat predictable pattern back to euphoria. The trouble is, based on the last 3 'panic' scenarios of 1982, 2002, and 2008, the current wall-of-worry has been scaled to now euphoric levels, and the equity market looks to be at an important inflection point.
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Something always seems like an 'all hands on panic' around here, as equities continue to ahem, rise.
P/E ratios high, unemployment high, debt high, and equities near record high. I guess to people like you ignorance is bliss
Ignorance? Bliss? I know the data/stats you mention mean nothing more than the steaming pile which publishes them. And yet the market climbs on. We don't have to like it - or buy into it - just saying...up and to the right she goes.
Just chiming in to let you know that Debtless is not the same guy as NoDebt. Don't associate me with him, please.
You all look the same to me.
22weeks. Newbie. Pshhh.
Debtless, you make it sound like we are operating in a free and unmanipulated market.
You think the SCUMBAGS on Wall Street, want to share Bernanke's free money with you ?
If so, then stay long the market.
Oh I certainly don't believe this is unmanipulated at all actually. They print and they prop. It's merely just what THEY do. Cannot time it, cannot fight it. Or if there's a way, I'd love to hear about it.
All I'm saying is Zero Hedge has changed over the years - it's all doom indexes now standing in disbelief at the zooming markets. They do a great job at defining the criminals and its behavior - and a lousy job at top calling.
First, I do not recall seeing anything about any ZH'ers calling a top, attempting to call a top, insinuating a top, or predicting anything but highly probable eventual badness in general.
Second, if one were to take a long look at known human history, one would see quite clearly that, based on similar scenarios in our colorful past, situations like the one human society finds itself in now have always ended quite badly.
Third, no rational person would have predicted the, obviously, desperate actions taken by numerous governments and central banks around the world in their attempts to keep the whole mess from collapsing in a grand and dramatic kind of way.
And finally, MY PREDICTION which is absolutely precise and infallible:
Things continue to circle the drain, despite crazy totalitarian minded Keynesian's antics, until the social fabric in China tears violently causing their leaders to panic for their very lives, who then, in an effort to distract the peasants and save their skins, instigate a fight with one of their smaller neighbors, which happens to be an ally of the USA, and then things get real interesting and result in a lovely global thermonulear exchange which pretty much solves all the planets woes in one big fireworks display.
The End. Finally.
Tools often want to step in and remind everyone that markets are doing great, and we are most definitely missing out on some great money making action.
"truth, justice and the ZH way" are words to live by. Are we living well by them?
Fire Zee Missiles!!
Relax toolshed , the guy pointing out ZH has many articles relating to the markets and sentiment on the site is Bearish. Manipulated, wrong , immoral it's been going up alot . Your PREDICTION makes you sound like a bit of a lonely guy sorry.
predicting anything but highly probable eventual baldness in general...
If it keeps up this way you will just have a steaming pile of worthless paper so what is it that you are gaining? Fundamentals don't matter any more? "Data/Stats" I am talking about are not NFP, PMI, Consumer Sentiment. They are actual data that have meaning.
So STFU and BTFD! What are you, a fucking sheep herder?
/sarc
cool, now everything can collapse like the miners,, don,t want anyone jealous here..
And it will continue so, to "rise up and to the right". It's intentional.
The big Q is when will the instant inflation make it all meaningless.
Except if you are a "saver". Then it will mean disaster.
I guess a # of ZH'ers see the discrepancies of valuations in equities, bonds, FX, libor, savings rates, CRE/RE, PM's pricing, etc. and see a deviance from a normal or even a quasi normal market. This is a market where one has to be ignorant or machiavellian to be successful. This isn't a "market" for honest investors.
Operating PEs currently 14.7 vs 26.69 in 2009 trough, 11.95 in 2011 pullback and 17.79 at 2007 peak...
DebtLess - are you brainless as well...?
"all hands on panic" around here ? How about around the neo Keynesian facsist WH and Fed ?
WH - 2.5% cuts to the INCREASE in the $1.7T Fed deficit will cause socio-economic havoc.
Fed - No way we can stop the $85B / mth of liquidity injection to the market or interest rates will increase and we will all be in trouble.
Open your mind to the responsiblity of reality, or play along with the immorality of the WH and Fed.
Members of the National Governors Association were told during a meeting last weekend that even after sequester, nonsecurity discretionary spending will rise by 5.1 percent to $389 billion in fiscal 2013, primarily as a result of disaster funding for Hurricane Sandy. Still, the start of the cuts will initiate belt-tightening among federal departments and agencies, which are expected to begin sending out thousands of furlough notices this week. Because 30 days’ notice is required, temporary layoffs will not begin until April.
So spending is INCREASING from 2012 to 2013 by 5.1% even with the Sequester...
You can't make this stuff up...
Average peak in recovery maybe but Ben Bernank is no average CB'er...central planning to nirvana
Prediction: New all time high on Dow at 10:01AM tomorrow, after release of non-mfg ISM.
"Fast Money" on CNBC did a good interview with Walter Zimmerman, whom ZH covered in an article this morning (can't find it).
"All technical indicators suggest the stock market is poised for a crash, Walter Zimmermann of United-ICAP said Monday."
The "Fast Money" gang were trying to poke holes in his argument, but he just kept bringing them back down to reality.
He mentions the bullish indicators and the "Euphoria" factor. It's a bit of sanity in the CNBC cavalcade of mutual fund and market pumpers talking about P/E ratios and "historical valuations" and "fair value" blah-blah-bullshit.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100519002
Did he quantitatively define crash or are we talking 200 Dow points while the robots took a momentary lunch break?
Big crash, massive correction, down below 2009 levels.
They didn't include all his comments, especially responding to the "Fast Money" crew, wonder why? Hmmm....
(He pretty much defeated each of their bullish talking points)
It's a 2:43 clip, with a chart showing his projected bottom support.
It would need to be a very dark swan and one their system cannot hide, spackle or print over for it to trigger massive liquidation outflow like 2008/9. We'll see.
Yes, wait and see.
They may allow it to happen, as long as they have enough retail money back in the casino.
More bailouts, more QE, more government spending programs, more degradation of the rule-of-law in the name of crisis, expediency, and to "save the children".
That has been the path of the past 10+ years, don't see why they would suddenly revert to sound money and the end of crony capitalism/socialism (the Kleptoligarchy).
I'm bearish but I would not get too excited about Walter Zimmerman who, if memory serves was calling for a top early last year and a decline into 450 on the SP500 by the end of 2012. I'll throw this out which is as good a guess as any: In some demented, extended analog of the 1930 rebound (this time four years in the making rather than eight months) this thing tops sometime in June. Record nominal highs all round of course.
We need a Dow peak poll.
We need more Helicopters of money!
Granted.
You ask for a miracle and I give you Fed's ZIRP and QE4EVA policies, which are showing no signs of stopping any time soon.
Next time you should just as for a Ferrari or a hot girlfriend or something. No point asking the Genie for things you've already got.
My gosh, when and how will this ever end?
They will no doubt ring the new high bell, and will doubtless draw in the last of the Debtless troll types before the secular down-leg massacre.
Forbes gets its nuts bashed in for not being fair with the top twenty rich man's list by the Sauds :
Alwaleed Dumps Forbes' Billionaire List - Business Insider
Forbes's male attribute measurement of top super dikks questioned. Bloombergs is better!
It takes a super dikk to measure another super dikk.
Ha ha ha, this has to be framed in the hall of fame of "rotten tomato" media statements of the year.
Forbes is worse than S&P and Moodys in their bond market evaluation, when it comes to measuring A man's super duper wealth.
MOAR...
THere are too many financial assets (debt) to GDP.
Either massive bankruptcies or massive inflation. Long real assets short equities and bonds over the long term.
Note the moralistic tone, however: Bad things are being done, thus things must end badly.
Perhaps how other, older moral codes evolved.
I'm on the edge of capitulating, meaning buying, just so this sucker will drop.
I share that uncanny knack of timing with you. I am like the kiss of death. By the way I just bought jan 2014 calls on 4 miners I like that have been beaten into the basement. Which of course means sell all your phyz now and run as gold will get dumped. I like to learn the hard way.
What someone needs to do is create another market that can't be manipulated. So people can really see what's going on.
You mean like physical?...
The markets will rise while there aren't enough bagholders signing up.
So they play the music louder, dance harder, and show what a great party it is.
As soon as they have enough people packed in the room, they will blast the pyrotechnics
and torch the fucking place to the ground. All exits will be locked.
Stop paying taxes and feeding the beast. Government is the problem.
Based on all the bull skeptics and attacks on Debtless, we have higher to go.
SPX targets 1800:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24SPX
iiwii, as long as Benny puts out 85 b a month, equities will rise and gold shall fall, all else shall play by the wayside. Gold under a 1,000 and the ES at 2000. Should drive most crazy, with little pull backs along the way to get long at, neverousness at the top now? just wait then till summer, stay long and make a bundle on the options, or lose all the way as you pick tops and bet shorts only to fail over and over again. got to have big gonads to go long at 1760's or something this July when the chart has been wrong since the 15 hundred's. This summer should be anything but dull.
I Think, Banks buy equites, as per Ben's orders, Ben buys 40b MBS, banks unload bad loans, get clean freshly laundred repo monies to buy stocks with, market moves up.............. Whats not to love?, it's like shootin fish in a barrel, or as close as you'll ever come......that is till the music stops, Ben retires, gives it up? Long way to go till then? Lots of fish, and they will tell everyone the party is over long before they play the last song. No worries, Go Long, or go home. It's my way or the highway says Benny! Party likes there no tomorrow...
BTFD
BTFD
Sadly such posts have a zero correlation with equity market weakness and offer no succor (sucker?) to the bears.
Dr Dampire can diagnose the patient called money and he's dying dudes. Witness the symptoms. Money is on his death bed. Stocks better than cash.