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Bernanke's S&P 500 Year-End Forecast: "Conviction Buy", $2000 Price Target

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Given his reiteration last week that the Fed is here to stay - and his fellow dovish lapdogs' confirmation that we can all rest assured that our 'wealth' is being protected - we know that the Fed balance sheet will hit around $4 trillion by year-end. Given the hyper-correlation over the past three months between US equity performance and the daily pump of POMO, it appears clear that Bernanke's target for the S&P 500 by year-end is around 2000 (unless of course you think there is even a little bit of market efficiency and discounting left in the world).

Is this what the Princeton Professor is looking for?

 

Or did the market front-run as usual and has already priced it in?

 

and maybe the post 2010 valuation highs for the Dow will slow things down a little?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:49 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

First Jacob's Ladder, now Birinyi's ruler.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

50 to 1 people are rioting on the streets before the SPX hits 2k. 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:55 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

They have been for the last three years.  The rioting isn't new.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:56 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Conviction Buy, $2000 Price Target

Gold

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

Hey,

 

Just woke up from a coma, been out since 2006.....I see we are still going strong moving up to 15k, let me check my stawks....oh shite?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:59 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

House of cards will finally fall. Don't ask me when but it will.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

It did. They rebuilt it.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Russell 2k seems quite muted compared to the dow and s&p.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

they'll pump any index they can to suck in as much "dumb money" as is left out there.  Widows and orphans beware!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Zombie gold bugs will be clutching their precious rocks as those of us in the know - and as Alan Blinder pointed out, even the hawks agree with the doves - understand that in order to grow we must suppleent the recovery.  As we do so the fear trade - gold - will subside and growth will rise as revenue picks up.

But keep collecting your metal, I am sure one day your children will be happy to have so many pretty things.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If only my precious rocks hadn't fallen to the bottom of the lake I'd go clutch them right now. The good thing about being a zombie is you don't need scuba equipment ,nor do you have to come up for air .

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

But keep collecting your stocks, I am sure one day your children will be happy to have so many pretty things for wall paper, if they opted for physical stock certificates.

http://www.scripophily.com/

Fixed it for you.

You're welcome.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment P Rankmug
P Rankmug's picture

Actually, in order to grow we need a monetary and fiscal environment which encourages the efficient exchange of production.  Not increasingly worthless pieces of fiat paper distributed via idiotic demand theory in the fantasy that they will magically alter the terms of trade and somehow fool producers into increased production.  Relative to the global competitive monetary devaluation in our fiat floating world, gold will maintain its value.  Gold's stability as a monetary proxy has proven to be constant over the course of civilization.  Nothing has changed in that regard good doctor.    

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:23 | Link to Comment THECOMINGDEPRESSION
THECOMINGDEPRESSION's picture

Paul, you can't be that far out in left field..can you? The only growth I see is debt, taxes, healthcare..and perhaps bullets and guns.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:25 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

am sure that you childern will spit on your grave when you die mother fucker ... no one will show on your funeral and even the priest will be so broke that he prays that you burn in the 7th hell ... God has a special place for Keynesians next to Louis, Hitler, Mao, Bush, Ben and the rest of them.

Your end will be a very bad one.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:58 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The purchasing power of my physical holdings remains very much intact relative to that $300 and $8 an ounce dollar cost average for gold and silver respectively.  Thanks for caring Krugman.  Unfortunately for you, real growth would require an increase in the avialable energy for delivery.  Growth in monetization?  Sure we can do that, but it will only accelerate the death of paper as there is no collateral behind all those paper promises.  

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:07 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

you mean when those dollars are worth 1 yen each?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:48 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Paul, you need to get some rest. 
That confession about being off on the Scarborough debate because you're tired doesn't hold water.  I mean you're here posting and re-posting nonsense periodically in the wee late hours, east coast time. 
Many of us here, if we didn't know better, would assume that you're using ZH as others during moments of self absorbed escape fall into a telephoneitis habit.
Then again, how would we know of suspicions such as those?
We're worried about your health.
Seriously.
Very worried.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment geotrader
geotrader's picture

Is this guy Bernanke's alias?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

$2000 ? I'm going for a trillion.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Conviction Buy:  $2000 Price Target.    SILVER

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i guess we don,t understand riot in the same way.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

With Jim Cramer saying things will end badly, I am beginning to wonder if everything will turn out ok.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:57 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Agggggggggahhhhh!
Now you really went and done it, messed my day up.
Jesus!
Sometimes connecting the dots is cruel.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:57 | Link to Comment tawse57
tawse57's picture

Did Cramer say this? Today? About the new DOW high?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:49 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah, he said today there'd be a new high before the close just after the open.  Said the Krugster's got his back.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:56 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Is anyone else out there old enough to remember when you could put money in a savings account and get 2% to 4% interest?  If you were really a wild and crazy cat, you could place the money in a "CD" (later replaced my MP3s) and get 5% !!!

 

Those were the days...

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:59 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Yes.
And it was the advent of the Free Shit Army, with Toasters and all!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

In Europe you can still get 3-4%, and I am not talking about Greece.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Do tell.  Links?  Please don't drop bombs like that without backing it up.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

In Germany, some banks offer. Probably in other countries too.
If you really really want, can drop some links later. Saw it on posters in city.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Yah like 6 years ago. Could get those in a regular MM.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:59 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

I remember money markets paying 12-15%.  We will get there again, as the world monetary system blows up.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

cool , my family was rich in those days, notso much now with my miners.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:50 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

To close that gap they would need to print 9 trillion dollars.

 

$4 trillion would only give another 200 points.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

The easiest thing to do.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:00 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

One famous person who people forget was a central banker, was Ernesto 'Che' Guevara, of whom it is written:

« From 1961 to 1965 Guevara was ... director of the national bank, signing the bank notes simply 'Che'. »

Made me wonder if now Bernanke just signs off on another trillion, with a simple ... 'Ben'

http://www.argentour.com/en/argentina_personalities/che_guevara.php

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:04 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Bernake is a RAT.........Even Michael Jackson knew it

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCeljYamsDw

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

rat is too nice of a word.
I prefer calling him a cockroach.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

I prefer enemy of the Republic. 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:56 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Chaos theory says first comes diminishing returns and then comes negative returns.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:12 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Yes sir, that it does.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

OK, so another 33%.
(Yawn... it's just not weird enough, yet)

 

Or I could have 10 of the 30 year treasurie.
Or 100,000,000 of them overnight repos.
Each seems as incredibly attractive as the next, don't it?
In the land of infinite money even Krugman can be King.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Meanwhile salaries stagnate, the economy sucks, cost of living rips, but it is all good, as Ben and his bankster masters get their swag. And BTW, priced in gold the DOW is down 53% from it's 2007 peak ( hat tip ZH). Nominal numbers are, well, nominal, meaning worthless.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

That's the plan.  Guys like buffet, gates, etc are going to be eating dog food from a can with a stick before long.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

the Istick and ichow are the next new trends.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:51 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

yes, S&P 2000 is what he's looking for ...No way out

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:56 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Ben Bernanke's "Virtuously Circular" macroeconomic policy thesis, which is perhaps the most groundbreaking & important work done in the precise field of economics in the last 1,000 years, depends on it!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

On another note..it looks like the brown shirts got 50 million for new uniforms.

 

 

TSA Sealed $50-Million Sequester-Eve Deal to Buy New Uniforms

 

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/tsa-sealed-50-million-sequester-eve-deal...

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:55 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

So they get to wear 'em at home during furlough.  Stay frosty, fellas.  Come'ere, Fido, time for another nut search.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:57 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So will the Eagle be the Swastika of the 21st century, or will they come up with a new symbol when they go from brown shirts to black?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It wouldn't surprise me to see a big "O" on their arms.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:50 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

I prefer it be on their chests and backs...with a smaller "o" inside the larger one...bright red would be nice.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:19 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

more like a big "N".....

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

Ironically enough, it will be the american flag with stars replaced with icons reflecting wearers' function. Skulls for military & police muscle, happy faces for propaganda units, unicorns for financial cadre, sheep for 'community activists', limp penis's for justice, middle fingers for tax squads, anuses for re-education units.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

This is chump change. When the TSA was formed in 2002 the government pumped approximately +/- $800 million dollars to bring the agency up from scratch. This had the double effect of creating a new agency and the government injecting the Approx. $800 million directly and quickly into the economy in one year.

The checks and balances on spending always seen to go FOR spending rather than NOT spending.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

Oh, the Bernanke ruler is here to save us all!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:55 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

When the government induced wealth effect is found to be conventionally flawed in reputation, the Keynesians will seek to find some other ways their meaningless arguments for public sector overreach is needed when it's all been political rhetoric and posturing in order to maintain power over the many by the few.

Income statements my ass. If ponzi is the system, then accounting is surely the language from which it is given authority.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:10 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bernanke's real target is a certain amount of individual investor money back in the casino.

Whether in IRA's, 401K's, Pensions, or the barefoot water skier's still day trading.

As soon as they sucker enough people and money back into the casino market 777 machines they will crash the mother fucker all over again. 

S&P 2,000 may do it, along with 9 more months of MSM propaganda and financial "advisors" lying to people.

This is the biggest Ponzi-black tulip-South Seas bubble scheme in human history.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment recidivist
recidivist's picture

Of all of the things I have lost, I miss my mind the most.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:03 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

So I assume that diversion into the land of butt plugs the other day, of which I was not a part, I'm proud to say, was not enough?

 

I see what happened!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:59 | Link to Comment DblAjent
DblAjent's picture

"They" don't even try to hide it anymore! What ballz, calling out his own speculatives now.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:04 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Will the black swan emerge? I'm seeing them everywhere under the surface. Conviently covered up by the media and traders wishing to put a stock market record in Obama's back pocket.

Mission acomplished. Bernanke, Obama, and the rest of the syndicate got the crab people their money back. Like any good sociopath, the tactics to win didn't matter. Lie, cheat, steal, all is well and good as long as you win.

The blackest swan of all is the functional bankruptcy of Walmart. You may never see a real bankruptcy, but the company is bankrupt. They can not generate enough profit to keep the company going. The business of running Walmart has reached a level where each new dollar of revenue costs more than a dollar to get. They can not buy enough inventory to keep the store stocked, Walmart's biggest gripe was always empty shelf space. They valued each square foot at a few million dollars. How many milions are sitting bare? Weekly sell through rates have fallen to decade lows.

Perhaps we have turned the corner where physical sales no longer matter. Where only the promise of revenue matters. Maybe Bernanke has finaly achieved the bankster dream, where wealth can be generated without production, labor, or consumption. Somehow I doubt it.

We can be at all time highs with thousands of retail stores shutting their doors and America's largest private employer in serious trouble. Really strange times.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Going a bit overboard on WMT aren't you?  Last time I checked the company was still highly profitable.  Their single biggest cost is employees, whom they are highly leveraged against wages.  Even small increases in wages directly affect the bottom line unless they get margin increase or increase prices to match.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:14 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

$9/hr minimum wage could fix that.

Of course, they'll have to increase EBT (SNAP/Food Stamp) payouts to prevent riots, keep WMT afloat, and J.P. Morgan Chase bank fees from EBT card users in the green.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:55 | Link to Comment worbsid
worbsid's picture

About the only shelves empty at our local Walmarts is the ammo shelves.  Obama is the greatest ammo salesman ever.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:05 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Market cap of SP500 is  approx 13.6 T

 

Why not just add in another 12T to the Fed balance sheet and buy out the whole thing at 10% premium to todays close?  Fed does buyout of every single name in SP500, cash tender offer.

The govt could then use the earnings/dividends on them to fund the govt and eliminate personal taxes.

 

Sounds like an awesome plan to me.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:17 | Link to Comment astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

please don't give them any ideas.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:06 | Link to Comment azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Full Printard!!!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fucking SO sick of it all.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It will be okay dog...here have a juicy steak...you can be a movie star or somebody important in the matrix.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:29 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

lol

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment dampiresquib
dampiresquib's picture

Obama must wanty to suck Bernanke's dick for masking his wastefull spendthrift policies , destroying the debt in an inflationary mushroom cloud and deflecting what should be negative headlines on the real economy by engineering asset bubbles in HY debt and equity. Way to go and damn moral hazard.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 01:54 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

Your nonlinear TA seems strange, but she looks familiar.  Is she from Pittsburgh?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I think 2000 is a little modest. We need to se a nice parabolic trajectory first and that would take us to the 2500-2750 area.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:20 | Link to Comment dampiresquib
dampiresquib's picture

I madeee $160  last week filling out surveys so could you !

 

 

 

 

 

 

or you could just print your own fuckin money

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:23 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

GOOG to 1,000. AMZN to 300 on a loss. CMG, keep buying Burritos. HD stores empty here, at least 100. And lets get AAPL back to 500 with the IWatch. We all have to have that. Cannot live without it. 

Drove by a pizza restaurant last week. Big A frame sign on the street: "We have been approved for EBT cards. Free pizza, free cell phones, hell, play it right you get a free house.

Think I will pass on stocks. This will end very badly. But for now, keep smoking and drinking. It is party time.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:26 | Link to Comment toros
toros's picture

USA's NSM (Nationaized Stock Market)

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment DblAjent
DblAjent's picture

Maybe they keep this farce going until just before Obama bin Biden hand over the keys??

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

All of that is bullish.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i want a fucking flash crash right now. i am so fed up with the green arrows on my screen, i want a ton of red for the blood that this market should be enduring.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:01 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

Clinton had a budget surplus because of a stock market bubble, so Ben's only goal all along has been to create another bubble. This should not surprise anyone.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 15:10 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

Well Wall Street now has been given the licsense to take Food up twenty fold, Gas and oil are going up 10 times, Housing is going to make the bubble look like a depression...we are talking your house going up 10 times. I don't think Bernanke actually even knows what inflation is!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

Any chart regarding P/E has become 100% irrelevant - at least for now.    Yes the market will look at fundamentals again - one day - but at the moment it is futile trying to imagine that the market is remotely interested in examining where P/Es are compared to any sort of historical norm.   

Being totally aware that the whole thing is a farce and will one day come a cropper probably puts you a step ahead of many participants.  But being anything other than long now on the basis that "the Fed shouldn't be doing this" is nothing short of mad.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:27 | Link to Comment are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Congressional productivity and gold.... To illustate the government better, Imagine all 541 elected leaders in DC and the supreme court were to somewhow produce golden solid waste (i.e. poo) when they went to their respective toilets. Then using the accepted one ounce of solid waste per day per 12 pounds of body mass and assuming an average weight of 200 pounds for our over fed leaders, then the 541 leaders would productively produce 9,016 ounce of gold a day or 516 pounds of gold per day, also equaling about $15,327,200at current gold price,  collectively, per day, or about 5.5 billion per year. I say even if congress produced golden poo, they would not be worth what effects they have on us all.

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