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DoubleLine's Gundlach Likes Silver As "The Great Debasement" Will Continue For Years (Not Months)
With central bank monetization supporting gold prices and fiscal deficits, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach's latest chart extravaganza contains more than a few charts you will have seen browsing these very pages. From Japanese demographics (and their apparent love of debasement) to US deficits (and US ignorance of them), from structural unemployment to ongoing private-to-public risk transfer, and from the diminishing returns from QE programs to the illusory nature of inflation; the new bond guru, as we noted yesterday, raises more than a few 'doubts' about the new reality in which our markets live - Gundlach fears 'trade protectionism' is coming (and will hurt the global economy); sees monetary easing going on for years (not months); dismisses the 'money on the sidelines' myth by noting that retail involvement is about the same as in 2007; thinks a 2% 10Y is 'reasonable' value; says to avoid banks; likes Silver; thinks the Student Loan debt market is a bubble set to burst; sees the perceived strength in housing as 'overblown'; blows the 'great rotation' meme away - "there can be no net rotation, for every buyer there's a seller"; and is sticking to his long Nikkei, Short S&P 500 trade.
And finally, just when every long-only stock-broker was laughing at this 'bond' guy calling for AAPL at $425 when it was trading at $600, today saw the stock hit his target price - and while he thinks it is short-term oversold, he sees the price going lower
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Gundlach = douche supreme. I sold all my paper silver once I read this.
Good for you. Paper silver is made to be sold.
Brilliant invention, that.
Why did you own paper silver? Was it a short term investment?
If it doesn't hurt when it falls on your foot, then it isn't silver!
If it doesnt leave a bruise then it is not enoough silver.
My pseudonymous cat is a Korat, known in Thailand as a Si-Sawat cat. It has a silver coat. It is the oldest continuously bred cat on Earth, with illustrations showing the breed just as it looks today going back to the 1400s.
Si-Sawat translates literally to "the color of money". In other words, 600 years ago, even people in a not-particularly-advanced culture knew that silver is indeed money.
In what may or may not be a coincidence, the Si-Sawat cat is also the most intelligent feline in existence.
meow.
If I dropped all my silver on my foot I would probably die from shock.
He was in Yale Math PHD program- where you
That explains it.
Still waiting for the S&P to hit 500, which was his prediction for 2012.
markets were closed , liar.
Gundlach has a very high IQ; and loves to do his homework. If you don';t understand what "Has a very high IQ means"; find someone who has one and ask them, maybe they'll explain it to you.
Gundlach = super douche. Stay away from his market forecasts. He got lucky on AAPL. That is all.
I dunno, when the 10 year was yielding 2.25% awhile back he said bonds were a good buy. Pretty sound advice as yields proceeded to drop to 1.4%.
He'll have a tougher time with the silver call because he's going against the manipulating bullion banksters. That is until the bullion banks switch to all long.
Most everyone in finance has some element of super-douche in them. So I'll overlook that in a quest to keep up with my daily currency debasement done by my overlords.
If you keep quiet; people may expect you're a little slow. If you speak up, then they know you're a fool.
So Gundlach is doing the "Tail Wags The Dog" trade? Long Nikkei short S&P. He might want to rethink that trade. 45-50% of S&P revenue comes from over seas. If the S&P goes kaput, I doubt the Nikkei is going to pick up the torch and run with it.
He may be right under some conditions. Japan is winning the race yo hyperinflation and that will inflate their market. Of course, if you sell then you get worthless yen...
Gundlach can get hurt in 2 ways with that trade. First, if global trade slows down Japan is an exporter and that would hurt the Nikkei. (my comment about S&P oversea revenue)
Second, a drop in us equities would cause bond yields to go down and the $ to strengthen. Japanese equity and currency markets have a strong correlation to U.S. bond yields. Lower yields mean stronger yen and pressure on the Nikkei.
In the near term I think the yen will strengthen. Further out I think the yen will continue to weaken. Karuda doesn't take over the BoJ until next month, and that will be the litmus test for Japans resolve on weakening the yen.
The variance on shorting the Japanese Yen must be through the roof
Saw this over at BrotherJohn's...
"Gold and Silver locked in no volume trading range since 8:30!"
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/138456
Something more than wierd must be going on. Anybody have a clue?
Looks like we have a serial down-arrow monkey tonight.
I'd go with that silver purchase, but post crash. Right now its just going to do the 28-34 range depending on the day, but post crash I see low 20's then pick some up for sure IMO.
Gundlach called the easy money turn into mortgage bubble back in 07, he was right, called AAPL falling through 425 and was right. Maybe he's right again on how long the debasement can last. Time will tell.
He also was right on the Bond buying call; that's why he's the "new bond king". The deposed one is Gross.
you will not be able to purchase physical in the low 20's...
That's what I found after the last crash, none to be had.
as jesse livermore noted, in a bull market the primary goal is not to lose your position.
And as he stated; always sell out too early; as John Pierpont Morgan did before the '29 crash. You're not Jesse LIvermore, you don't hang out all day in a major brokerage in New York.
Gundlach is a sharp dude. I like him. Interesting stuff.
One of the best track records in bondito land.
Likes kinky shit, too what with all them porn mags, dildoes and the like.
"I didn't buy that shit myself"
I can easily see the Chinese stockpiling silver if she drops more.These guys really know how to be compulsive hoarders of commodities.
Wouldn't take much money to get a significant chunk of the available silver.
The Chinese stockpiling silver? No... Currently silver is not being stockpiled in China. If you keep an eye on the Chinese precious metals market, gold is MUCH, MUCH tighter than silver.
Why wouldn't the Chinese be stockpiling silver, since the gold / silver ratio is at near record highs? Are they stupid? I thought the time to buy gold was when the ratio was near it's lows..........are you putting your $$$$ into the market because it's now nearing record highs????????
I was just saying what it is. If you watch the delivery at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, you will find silver is NOT popular. Not many Chinese want silver. You can call it stupidity but that's the current situation.
Maybe, if true that Chinamen don't likee, it's because in China one can get "fake" silver anyfuckinthing. They've faked it all, in non magnetic white metals, sometimes using digital laser cutting tech to make dies, quality looking crap(Silver Eagles, too!). Beware, this, but know that silver's(the real stuff) the buy of the 21st century. Mark it.
(Just think when your grandson's NOT working in a factory due to robotics, and he complains to his perfectly beautiful and lifelike animatronic "wife". They'll all be running on silver valued at hundreds of credits per ozt, circa 2070 or so)
<-- Waves silver cross at Dr Paul Krugman!
DoChen, I just don't know what to say about that little prick.
He's a menace to society with his NWO big gubamint statist policies.
BTW, he'll be on Charlie Rose tonight and already blogged that he'd done a poor showing as he was tired....
How the fuck can he do a poor job when Joe Scarborough is his lead foil... from MSNBC, no?
Not like a Coliseum full of loins, for shits sake.
But then again, he has never made sense here either.
So what else is new, eh?
I think Krugman is an example of a "true believer"; a cult member. I really mean that. I think that's his essential psychology. They're very dangerous people because they become entirely identified with their "vision", and real numbers, real research, means nothing at all to them. Like Al Gore and his burning planet for instance; same, same. Facts mean nothing.
What did silver do when the market crashed last time, and why is this time different?
Took a bloody huge powder.
No it's not different.
It looks like it took a ten dollar an ounce beating in 2008.......it's already come down close to $20 an oz from it's high since then.
I think this time will be different, because there will be little else to put your money into when the crash comes. You buying bonds?
Congratulations ZH on being sourced in the reports of many of the smartest people in the business. And thanks for providing a forum for intelligent discourse.
I'm sure it's killing the Bernank. He is probably trying to figure out how to ban free speech under the Fed Charter.
If Bernanke is the Joker, this guy is Batman.
For every buyer there is a seller is not profound to most people ,but to all these rotation peddlers it seems a mystery.
The silver manipulation on the Comex people don't get it either. Seems to be too advanced a concept for them.
CRUDE OIL & COPPER have not participated in recent equity rally and we know what that warns of...
trader618
Wow; that's impressive. Show that to your local optimist. I see he has a chart on there with credit to Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge; hey. You're shittin' in the tall corn now. Damn; they's some baaad news waitin for somebody in those charts.