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DoubleLine's Gundlach Likes Silver As "The Great Debasement" Will Continue For Years (Not Months)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With central bank monetization supporting gold prices and fiscal deficits, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach's latest chart extravaganza contains more than a few charts you will have seen browsing these very pages. From Japanese demographics (and their apparent love of debasement) to US deficits (and US ignorance of them), from structural unemployment to ongoing private-to-public risk transfer, and from the diminishing returns from QE programs to the illusory nature of inflation; the new bond guru, as we noted yesterday, raises more than a few 'doubts' about the new reality in which our markets live - Gundlach fears 'trade protectionism' is coming (and will hurt the global economy); sees monetary easing going on for years (not months); dismisses the 'money on the sidelines' myth by noting that retail involvement is about the same as in 2007; thinks a 2% 10Y is 'reasonable' value; says to avoid banks; likes Silver; thinks the Student Loan debt market is a bubble set to burst; sees the perceived strength in housing as 'overblown'; blows the 'great rotation' meme away - "there can be no net rotation, for every buyer there's a seller"; and is sticking to his long Nikkei, Short S&P 500 trade. 

 

And finally, just when every long-only stock-broker was laughing at this 'bond' guy calling for AAPL at $425 when it was trading at $600, today saw the stock hit his target price - and while he thinks it is short-term oversold, he sees the price going lower

 

Gundlach the Big Easy Slides_FINAL by

 

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Tue, 03/05/2013 - 18:53 | 3302616 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gundlach = douche supreme.  I sold all my paper silver once I read this.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 18:54 | 3302621 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Good for you.  Paper silver is made to be sold.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:01 | 3302652 malikai
malikai's picture

Brilliant invention, that.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 18:55 | 3302623 DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

Why did you own paper silver? Was it a short term investment?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:07 | 3302668 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

If it doesn't hurt when it falls on your foot, then it isn't silver!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:19 | 3302726 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

If it doesnt leave a bruise then it is not enoough silver.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:43 | 3302998 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

My pseudonymous cat is a Korat, known in Thailand as a Si-Sawat cat. It has a silver coat. It is the oldest continuously bred cat on Earth, with illustrations showing the breed just as it looks today going back to the 1400s.

 

Si-Sawat translates literally to "the color of money". In other words, 600 years ago, even people in a not-particularly-advanced culture knew that silver is indeed money.

 

In what may or may not be a coincidence, the Si-Sawat cat is also the most intelligent feline in existence.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:56 | 3303043 oddjob
oddjob's picture

meow.

 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 03:37 | 3303988 Schlomo Bergstein
Schlomo Bergstein's picture

If I dropped all my silver on my foot I would probably die from shock.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:22 | 3302946 redman38
redman38's picture

He was in Yale Math PHD program- where you

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:45 | 3304840 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

That explains it.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 06:40 | 3304105 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Still waiting for the S&P to hit 500, which was his prediction for 2012.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 07:30 | 3304149 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

markets were closed , liar.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:53 | 3309027 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Gundlach has a very high IQ; and loves to do his homework. If you don';t understand what "Has a very high IQ means"; find someone who has one and ask them, maybe they'll explain it to you.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 18:56 | 3302635 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gundlach = super douche.  Stay away from his market forecasts. He got lucky on AAPL. That is all. 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:57 | 3303047 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

I dunno, when the 10 year was yielding 2.25% awhile back he said bonds were a good buy. Pretty sound advice as yields proceeded to drop to 1.4%.

He'll have a tougher time with the silver call because he's going against the manipulating bullion banksters. That is until the bullion banks switch to all long.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 00:49 | 3303788 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Most everyone in finance has some element of super-douche in them. So I'll overlook that in a quest to keep up with my daily currency debasement done by my overlords.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:55 | 3309031 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

If you keep quiet; people may expect you're a little slow. If you speak up, then they know you're a fool.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:04 | 3302661 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  So Gundlach is doing the "Tail Wags The Dog" trade? Long Nikkei short S&P. He might want to rethink that trade. 45-50% of S&P revenue comes from over seas. If the S&P goes kaput, I doubt the Nikkei is going to pick up the torch and run with it.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:10 | 3302679 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

He may be right under some conditions. Japan is winning the race yo hyperinflation and that will inflate their market. Of course, if you sell then you get worthless yen...

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:29 | 3302738 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Gundlach can get hurt in 2 ways with that trade. First, if global trade slows down Japan is an exporter and that would hurt the Nikkei. (my comment about S&P oversea revenue)

   Second, a drop in us equities would cause bond yields to go down and the $ to strengthen. Japanese equity and currency markets have a strong correlation to U.S. bond yields. Lower yields mean stronger yen and pressure on the Nikkei.

    In the near term I think the yen will strengthen. Further out I think the yen will continue to weaken. Karuda doesn't take over the BoJ until next month, and that will be the litmus test for Japans resolve on weakening the yen.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:01 | 3302857 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The variance on shorting the Japanese Yen must be through the roof

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:12 | 3302686 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Saw this over at BrotherJohn's...

"Gold and Silver locked in no volume trading range since 8:30!"

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/138456

Something more than wierd must be going on. Anybody have a clue?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:32 | 3302767 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Looks like we have a serial down-arrow monkey tonight.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:12 | 3302689 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

I'd go with that silver purchase, but post crash.  Right now its just going to do the 28-34 range depending on the day, but post crash I see low 20's then pick some up for sure IMO.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:18 | 3302718 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Gundlach called the easy money turn into mortgage bubble back in 07, he was right, called AAPL falling through 425 and was right.  Maybe he's right again on how long the debasement can last.  Time will tell.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:57 | 3309039 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

He also was right on the Bond buying call; that's why he's the "new bond king".  The deposed one is Gross.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:53 | 3302826 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

you will not be able to purchase physical in the low 20's...

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 22:31 | 3303402 Scro
Scro's picture

That's what I found after the last crash, none to be had.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 22:59 | 3303494 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

as jesse livermore noted, in a bull market the primary goal is not to lose your position.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:21 | 3309501 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

And as he stated; always sell out too early; as John Pierpont Morgan did before the '29 crash. You're not Jesse LIvermore, you don't hang out all day in a major brokerage in New York.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:16 | 3302706 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Gundlach is a sharp dude. I like him. Interesting stuff.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:22 | 3302737 knukles
knukles's picture

One of the best track records in bondito land.
Likes kinky shit, too what with all them porn mags, dildoes and the like.
"I didn't buy that shit myself"

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:23 | 3302742 Herdee
Herdee's picture

I can easily see the Chinese stockpiling silver if she drops more.These guys really know how to be compulsive hoarders of commodities.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:47 | 3302808 Midas
Midas's picture

Wouldn't take much money to get a significant chunk of the available silver.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:50 | 3302818 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

The Chinese stockpiling silver? No... Currently silver is not being stockpiled in China. If you keep an eye on the Chinese precious metals market, gold is MUCH, MUCH tighter than silver. 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:16 | 3302922 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Why wouldn't the Chinese be stockpiling silver, since the gold / silver ratio is at near record highs? Are they stupid? I thought the time to buy gold was when the ratio was near it's lows..........are you putting your $$$$ into the market because it's now nearing record highs????????

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:20 | 3302937 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

I was just saying what it is. If you watch the delivery at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, you will find silver is NOT popular. Not many Chinese want silver. You can call it stupidity but that's the current situation.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 21:54 | 3303225 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Maybe, if true that Chinamen don't likee, it's because in China one can get "fake" silver anyfuckinthing. They've faked it all, in non magnetic white metals, sometimes using digital laser cutting tech to make dies, quality looking crap(Silver Eagles, too!). Beware, this, but know that silver's(the real stuff) the buy of the 21st century. Mark it.

(Just think when your grandson's NOT working in a factory due to robotics, and he complains to his perfectly beautiful and lifelike animatronic "wife". They'll all be running on silver valued at hundreds of credits per ozt, circa 2070 or so)

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:47 | 3302803 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

<-- Waves silver cross at Dr Paul Krugman!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:56 | 3302836 knukles
knukles's picture

DoChen, I just don't know what to say about that little prick.
He's a menace to society with his NWO big gubamint statist policies.

BTW, he'll be on Charlie Rose tonight and already blogged that he'd done a poor showing as he was tired....
How the fuck can he do a poor job when Joe Scarborough is his lead foil... from MSNBC, no?
Not like a Coliseum full of loins, for shits sake.
But then again, he has never made sense here either.
So what else is new, eh?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:16 | 3309482 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I think Krugman is an example of a "true believer"; a cult member. I really mean that. I think that's his essential psychology. They're very dangerous people because they become entirely identified with their "vision", and real numbers, real research, means nothing at all to them. Like Al Gore and his burning planet for instance; same, same. Facts mean nothing.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:52 | 3302824 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

What did silver do when the market crashed last time, and why is this time different?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:59 | 3302838 knukles
knukles's picture

Took a bloody huge powder.
No it's not different.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:05 | 3302876 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

It looks like it took a ten dollar an ounce beating in 2008.......it's already come down close to $20 an oz from it's high since then.

 

 

 

I think this time will be different, because there will be little else to put your money into when the crash comes. You buying bonds?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:53 | 3303028 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Congratulations ZH on being sourced in the reports of many of the smartest people in the business. And thanks for providing a forum for intelligent discourse.

I'm sure it's killing the Bernank. He is probably trying to figure out how to ban free speech under the Fed Charter.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 02:59 | 3303956 Nu Yawks hottes...
Nu Yawks hottest club is's picture

If Bernanke is the Joker, this guy is Batman.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 03:48 | 3303994 dunce
dunce's picture

For every buyer there is a seller is not profound to most people ,but to all these rotation peddlers it seems a mystery.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:12 | 3309468 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

The silver manipulation on the Comex people don't get it either. Seems to be too advanced a concept for them.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 07:19 | 3304135 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

CRUDE OIL & COPPER have not participated in recent equity rally and we know what that warns of...

trader618

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:11 | 3309462 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Wow; that's impressive. Show that to your local optimist. I see he has a chart on there with credit to Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge; hey. You're shittin' in the tall corn now. Damn; they's some baaad news waitin for somebody in those charts.

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