Druckenmiller: "When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly"
When even Home Depot's Ken Langone is questioning the reality of this rally (CEO of one of the best performing stocks since the Dow last traded here), you have to be a little concerned. However, it is Duquesne's Stanley Druckenmiller's point that with QE4EVA it is impossible to know when this will end but warns that "all the lobsters are in the pot" now as he notes that "if you print enough money, everything is subsidized - bonds, stocks, real estate." He dismisses the notion of any sell-off in bonds for the same reason as the Fed is buying $85 bn per month (75-80% all off Treasury issuance). The Fed has cancelled all market signals (whether these are to Congress or market participants) and just as we did in the 1970s, we will find out about all the mal-investments sooner or later. "This is a big, big gamble," he notes, "manipulating the most important price in all of free markets," that ends one of only two ways, a mal-investment bust (as we saw in 2007-8) or full debt monetization and "off we go into inflation."
"The Fed is printing a lot of money. They are forcing people into markets. You shouldn't be buying securities because you're forced to buy them by zero rates. you should buy them because you think they're great value. They're great value only relative to zero interest rates. they're not great value on an absolute basis."
"I don't know when it's going to end, but my guess is, it's going to end very badly; and it's going to end very badly because, again, when you get the biggest price in the world, interest rates, being manipulated you get a misallocation of resources and this is going to end in one of two ways - with a malinvestment bust which we got in '07-'08 (we didn't get inflation). We got a malinvestment bust because of the bubble that was created in housing. Or it could end with just monetizing the debt and off we go in inflation. So that's a very binary outcome. they're both bad."
"the thought that you can exit from wherever the balance sheet will be at that time, 4 trillion, wherever it is, in an orderly manner the chairman testified that will give the market plenty of warning, do you know what guys like me are going to do when they sell the first bond out of 4 trillion? and don't think that letting the bonds run off isn't selling. that debt has to be refinanced. if you do not -- if you just let all the bonds run off that is still 4 trillion in selling. and it's not till they actually sell the first one, it's till you get the whiff -- what do you think -- what do you think the markets are going to do when they figure out the exit. look what happened in qe-1 and qe-2 ended which is why i don't think this sever going to end."
"we know is that it's not a real market driven number? and we know the longer you keep it there, the greater the misallocation, and the greater the pain."
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