This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Druckenmiller: "When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly"
When even Home Depot's Ken Langone is questioning the reality of this rally (CEO of one of the best performing stocks since the Dow last traded here), you have to be a little concerned. However, it is Duquesne's Stanley Druckenmiller's point that with QE4EVA it is impossible to know when this will end but warns that "all the lobsters are in the pot" now as he notes that "if you print enough money, everything is subsidized - bonds, stocks, real estate." He dismisses the notion of any sell-off in bonds for the same reason as the Fed is buying $85 bn per month (75-80% all off Treasury issuance). The Fed has cancelled all market signals (whether these are to Congress or market participants) and just as we did in the 1970s, we will find out about all the mal-investments sooner or later. "This is a big, big gamble," he notes, "manipulating the most important price in all of free markets," that ends one of only two ways, a mal-investment bust (as we saw in 2007-8) or full debt monetization and "off we go into inflation."
"The Fed is printing a lot of money. They are forcing people into markets. You shouldn't be buying securities because you're forced to buy them by zero rates. you should buy them because you think they're great value. They're great value only relative to zero interest rates. they're not great value on an absolute basis."
"I don't know when it's going to end, but my guess is, it's going to end very badly; and it's going to end very badly because, again, when you get the biggest price in the world, interest rates, being manipulated you get a misallocation of resources and this is going to end in one of two ways - with a malinvestment bust which we got in '07-'08 (we didn't get inflation). We got a malinvestment bust because of the bubble that was created in housing. Or it could end with just monetizing the debt and off we go in inflation. So that's a very binary outcome. they're both bad."
"the thought that you can exit from wherever the balance sheet will be at that time, 4 trillion, wherever it is, in an orderly manner the chairman testified that will give the market plenty of warning, do you know what guys like me are going to do when they sell the first bond out of 4 trillion? and don't think that letting the bonds run off isn't selling. that debt has to be refinanced. if you do not -- if you just let all the bonds run off that is still 4 trillion in selling. and it's not till they actually sell the first one, it's till you get the whiff -- what do you think -- what do you think the markets are going to do when they figure out the exit. look what happened in qe-1 and qe-2 ended which is why i don't think this sever going to end."
"we know is that it's not a real market driven number? and we know the longer you keep it there, the greater the misallocation, and the greater the pain."
»
- 50046 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
You may very well be correct. I for one hope you are.
Thanks for the back and forth.
you are both invited if needed.
New thinking always butts up against resistance in the beginning but it also seperates the can do from the can't do. There is more than enough can't and not enough can.
Back and forth is always fun. An unfiltered exchange of ideas is always a good thing.
But Barry said we are the greatest nation ever on the world in history.....
Bawwwwwwwwwwwwwh
A small bucket shop to compete with the big one!
Yes exactly, it starts small. If it has real value it will grow and become accepted more and more as mainstream as the time goes on. It has to be based on open information which means opensource like bitcoin. Any Tom, Jane, Dick or Harry can download the software and start trading pretty much right away. If bitcoin suceeds this certainly has real potential. If decentralized digital currency can be successful, why not a market based on the same and using an established for starters digital currency?
Fuck em.....
As angry Arny used to say. Don't get angry, get even.
One man's rigged market is another man's business opportunity. I am not smart enough to build the whole platform only smart enough to put together the system and do some of the core mathematics underneath the hood. If someone with enough resources wants to run with it, I could use the paycheck.
he wasn't flattering you by referring to your idea as a bucket shop.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucket_shop_(stock_market)
He is also missing the point. There is no house and it is not done in back rooms where no one can see what is going on. Anyone can log into the market at any time, if it possible you'd use something like RSS feeds to stream prices in real time. The decentralized network IS the market. Every device that is logged into the network at any given time IS the network. You would just need coin to participate. The point is to create a free market unregulated trading platform. And that is fine mockery or not ideas live and die on their own merit bottom line. If it don't go anywhere then it wasn't a good idea. Ya'll keep thinking like it is the 1980's.
Sounds like you have cold feet. Or will.
Hey baby it's cold down there.
"I WILL NOT MONETIZE THE DEBT'
LIVE T.V. BEN BERNANKE ON 60 MINUTES
QUAVERING LIP AND ALL
The HomeDepot people would likely profit from any subsidy of real estate. However, inflation pressures would eat them alive as most HomeDepot visits from Joe 6Pack are discretionary buys and secondary to the cost of other things like fuel and food.
there are tumbleweeds blowing down the aisles of the HDs by me-even at 7 or 8 in the morning when the contractors used to come in and load up. 4x8 sheets of USG drywall have doubled in price in the last few months and lumber prices are crazy.
OSB is nearing a record high in my area, somewhat contributed to the hurricane sandy, but still a couple dollars higher than post katrina. Shingles have gone every year for the last 5 years, they fluctuate up and down, but always end the year slightly higher than before.
My area is seeing, for the first time since the early 80's, a spec home builder developing a small sub division. What struck me though is the cabinets are chinese, which is the first I've seen of this, but I'm not up on interior finishings.
are the cabinets made out of pressed cardboard? either way your typical dumbassed american homebuyer has no eye for any type of quality in home construction-as long as it keeps the TV and meth lab dry.
It matters not if one has an eye for quality, when one cannot afford it.
Besides, I once bought a house built in the mid 70's with plastic drawers in the cabinets. So it isn't like this is anything new.
"The party can continue for some time"
Bernanke and the Fed are stuck QEing until it does blow up and their forced to stop.
Until then, pass the Whiskey!!
Party on until the US dollar massively crashes folks.
It's easy.
Bernanke and the Fed must continue to keep increasing the QEing. A race to trash the US dollar.
Time to raise prices due to inflated prices.
We've been out of whiskey for some time - you're in the 'after after hours club' now, so you're going to have to settle for mouthwash, vanilla or lysol. But hey, let's all party on! Turn up the stereo and pass the mouthwash - that old toothless whore over in the corner's lookin' better by the minute.
The FED will continue to print as long as there are remaining assests to buy, gold, land, property, oil and so on. They can help Europe kick the can too to some extent. I doubt that they can control a citizen actioned sovereign default or a China property bubble burst. They will keep printing and buying until a trigger that is out of their hands causes the market to crash and in the deflation hit, buy what is remaining, stop the printing, wait for hyperinflation panic to wash away the debt and start the reset.
my kingdom for a proofreader
Kenny Long Gone better be careful with what he says...
"More saying. More droning."
This video is great. Says exactly what the Fed should say about inflation:
We apologize for any inconvenience
What happens if Congress decides to wipe out a big portion of the National Debt by canceling all of the Bonds that Bernanke is holding, to balance the Budget and lower the Debt.
Nothing. It merely means the debt monetization by printing money is permanent.
Just us and we'd be cool. But there are 199 other countries out there on the planet, that we use our currency to buy stuff from. They might be a bit peeved about the self-debt-forgiveness thingy....
I would like to see them wipe out the entire debt. Eliminate fractional reserve banking at the same time to limit inflation. Buy all consumer debt and refinance to get the dollars moving. End result is no taxes, no defecit and a thriving american middle class.
This would keep the banks from sucking our wealth, so it is proabbly a non-starter.
Your comment clearly illustrates that you don't understand who owns who in this relationship.
That would have nearly no effect. It would be like burning your credit card receipts after you've already charged up a ton of purchases.
BREAKING NEWS: SHTOCK MEERKAT GOOROO REEVEEALS SHOKKING TROOF WOT NO WUN SOR CUMMIN!!!!
Again? Does this guy's newspaper get delivered 12 months late or something? FFS
Let me guess tomorrow's market up 100, and the day after up 100 and the day after that up 100 and again and again...wow we are all going to get rich!
Again, why would anyone care what a parasite, who has benefitted from the largess, rigging and corruption of the Fed and its owner banks at the expense of the general populace, says?
When the money powers decide to pull the plug ... and there is no reason to believe that they are not the ones with their hand on the cord ... some insiders will benefit and you will know that you are an outsider if you do not benefit. Dogs do not change their spots. Evil does not know how to be good.
"It's a big fucking club, and you ain't in it"
George Carlin
It pays to watch. Watch what is done, not what is said.
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."
- George Orwell
Who are Goldman and JP Morgan going to throw from the bus this time...they killed Bear, Merrill and Lehman last time!
My guess, this time a country. Cypress perhaps forces a greater Euro bailout or the WORLD will end!
You forgot a few from the last time;
GMAC, GE Finance, WaMu, CountryWide, Fannie & Freddie...the list was endless.
If the video doesn't work this is Druckenmiller talking about entitlements.
About Social Security "It's kindof a ponzi."
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000152091&play=1
when? No way this movie could be made today. Everyone would be whining about how racist it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39-natKpnkA
Fed is saying it will keep buying the long end through it's member banks. No worry here it's a rigged market.
Lets not talk about the kids that can't find work, "The market" is at all time highs for fuks sake. Those kids are approaching 1 Trillion in student loans, what interest rate are they paying?
Drunkenfucker merely parrots what every smart ZHer has been posting here for 4 years.
Ron Paul was called crazy for decades for even suggesting this was unsustainable. Now at the college campuses he's a hero. Yet the MSM and politicians keep fleecing the people.
Good afternoon to each and every soul on board today. Bless'ed Love to you ALL.
When the people were told that Ron Paul was the last hope for America and the natural free world, this was ignored and discounted as the truth. He was poo-poo’ed by all the talking puppets and worse, shut down by those who a truly had the power to elect him. Whoa unto you O isreal.
It did not take a PhD to recognize that when the reports of remote-controlled planes hitting the trade towers came out three weeks later, there was something seriously wrong in hong-kong. It was plain Jane to see that if this kind of corruption and criminality was allowed to transpire without the true doubled-edged sword of Truth and Justice being properly served, it would only be a matter of time before the nation of lemmings that was complicit in the cover-up and ignorance of this blatant criminality would fall, crash, and burn. The warnings have been heralded since then, and still the ships course has not changed. Ignorance is the Captain of the good ship America.
http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/war/homerun.htm
http://www.public-action.com/911/bumble.html
Just because the babylonian empire of mis/dis-information and illusions has convinced the majority of people to be lack-toast do nothing chicken-chit lackeys for this system of evil disillusionment, doesn't mean that the true Laws of the Universe are changed. What goes up in this dimension, always comes down. The Law of Karma is real and this nation that has profited from this ignorance of natural Law is not by it's own choice, but by the power of the Law about to enter into a collective punishment for being ignorant, and so foolish to support this madness run amok into spheres of insanity and unreasonable twilight zones.
The system can not support this kind of evil corruption and by it's own weight of evil horrid corruption, will come crashing down IF it is not actually dealt with by real honest thinking and morally correct souls DOING, not talking about it, but by their own powers DOING something to change the system into a course correction for the sakes of the whole. Anything less than an emergency operation to remove the cancerous pond scum evil that is taking the world down with it, will result in this coming to pass. It will all fall and take all with it. There will be NO escape from what could come, especially for those who helped it happen. Dig as deep as you will to run and hide. The spirit of MAAT knows no material bounds and the Law is the Law! Those that serve the god money, will die by the god money. Do not ever forget the real world, the spiritual one is that which awaits each and every soul on board. The fact is, we are spiritual beings having a human experience and each will eventually answer to higher powers than those any bio-bot on the planet can create. There is NO escape from those Holy Scales. Those that pass on from this world to the other real one with a heavy heart will not outweigh the Feather of Judgment on the other side.
Now that so many more people are awake the question still remains, is it really too late to take some of Ron Paul’s advice and actually implement ANY kind of saving measures like some are beginning to point out here in the solutions to the eminent crash column/thread?
What's to worry about? The chief cocksucker in charge of manipulating markets says he can stop inflation in 15 minutes! I say it's near time to put that to the test.
Druckenmiller is just giving public disclosure so he can unload all qualifying shares of HD that he owns. The ramp up from Feb. 22nd looks like it's running out of steam, and he want's his opinion on public record when shareholders show up with pitchforks outside HD headquarters.
He must have the mother of all short positions on to suddenly be all over the media doing this.
I find this so depressing. Day after day the market is absolute insanity, defying all logic and common sense. When in the name of all things holy will this bullshit end??
Patience grasshopper. All will be revealed soon.
@Antifederalist
"All will be revalued soon"
Just a suggestion...
Please let it be tomorrow...
Looks like they got a lot of lipstick to put on this turd.
WE know what is supposed to be happening.
(most) Fund Managers know what is supposed to be happening.
Even some of the pundits are displaying disbelief and caution.
Just NOBODY knows WHEN it will happen.
"When in the name of all things holy will this bullshit end??"
When the first righteous right-up man with a badge and a gun steps up to the plate to DO the right thing. That is the only way it can end. It first has to begin.
Printing money like a Drunken(sailor).
Gee Stan, yah think we are fucked.....
Old news.
The snake is eating it's own tail. TPTB are going to let greed kill the system.
"it's not till they actually sell the first one, it's till you get the whiff --"
hard to catch a whiff when the whole thing has been stinking for years!
Bernanke is a machine and doesn't notice bubbles hitting the windshield. In the meantime BTFD.
Picture a fire in a Brazilian nightclub.
I've celebrated Mr. B's Ballroom this last month by paying 4.5% of my house principle. Dancing the fandango in this house of mirrors will make any SANE person puke, so I'm not playing.
253.5 Billion- Obama borrowed nearly 6X as much in February as sequester cuts....
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/2535b-obama-borrowed-nearly-6x-much-febr...
Again, somehow the MSM has missed this story
The look on his face at 8:04 when he says we all know the hangover's a lot worse when you drink a lot more.... lol.
I'm recording today's CNBC jizzfest and sticking the DVR in the closet for posterity.
Oh, and I'm also sending lots of 401K fiat to the coin man. Keep stacking, my friends.
That's the only positive I take out of all this bullshit - the longer they perpetuate the scam, the more time I have to insure against the inevitable end.
"what do you think the markets are going to do when they figure out the exit?"
I added to my silver today!!!!!!!!! :)
Was talking with my KoC insurance agent about what to do with an old 401k I have...found out that he's got a lot of silver, too. When your insurance agent is buying hard assets...
doom and gloom...bernnie boy has it all under control cause he told us he does and that fucker wrote the book on the great depression.....!
Warsh is a lapdog. he knows the pump is not creating jobs. Are they all like this? i don't own a Teevee and miss all this crap.
All I can say is don't be left without a chair when the music stops. And stop it will. The only way you can be sure not to be, is to sit the fukk down right now. Even one of the greatest market criminals of all time, Joe Kennedy, admitted that he never sold at the top.
Seems to me that they did all this money printing in 2008-2011 out of conviction (they thought it would cure what ails us), but now they are doing it because they fear that if they stop, they'll get a financial melt down...of course, eventually it has to stop or all the printing, itself, will cause a melt down. We're rather boxed in here now, aren't we?
What will happen next remains to be seen, but fake money and debt are never a recipe for economic success in the long term.
and don't think that letting the bonds run off isn't selling. that debt has to be refinanced. if you do not -- if you just let all the bonds run off that is still 4 trillion in selling.
Strange statement.
What happens when a MBS is actually paid off? There's really not a "profit" to remit back to the treasury. Does it just shrink the money supply? How is that the same as selling? Because no one ever planned on paying this back, just rolling it forever?
There ain't nothing but graphs of fraud in those indexes. And, you don't want to stop fraud because the crimminals behind it run the federal government. Dudes aren't suggesting arresting the federal government are they? Perhaps asking people to begin a revolution against the government. Maybe someone should call DHS and let them know what Mr. Drucknmiller is talking about here. Seems like he needs a dose of lightweight tank in his neighborhood.
Normally I don't ever listen to CNBC because the content they provide is just crap. But this interview stood out, and stood out large. I never heard of Kevin Warsh before this interview, but this guy should be in a position of authority, somewhere. The guy was very well spoken, made sense, and sadly, none of the politicians will probably ever listen to somebody like this.
The entire segment is worth listening to. Here's links to all of the segments, and the last two feature Warsh. Pass these links around.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000152087&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000152122&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000152091&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000152123&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000152126&play=1
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000152127&play=1
Great compilation thanks. Sent to everyone I know.
war! what is it good? bailing out the bankers! say it again!
war is really the only ending. it doesn't matter whether there is a collapse of assets or hyperinflation, war, a massive capacity destruction event, is really the only solution to the current problems. war creates manufacturing capacity not only during the event but in the aftermath rebuilding everything(bastiat be damned in a fiat world). it allows banks to quietly shed the books of all the bad debt with new war debt that will define the winners and losers. that is the primary reason china and russia have closed their doors to western tbtf banks which is the primary reason there will be the last war of desperation by the empire. the theme song of the last war of desperation was "rule brittania, brittania rule the waves". the theme song for this event is "oh, say can you see...." the bankers won both wars. they may lose this one.
Plain as day.
The good news is...it is not to late to stop it all.
Sure it will. Sounds like 4yrs, 3yrs, 2yrs and last year. I think people will end and the all knowing markets will run for another 40,000yrs. (Did someone buy the 40,000yr warranty on the hard drive fan?)
OMG. I can't believe that when I surfed over here...I would see this piece. Just as I finished one of my own...this shit is gonna go from bad to worse. Chop chop. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-end-game.html
Hey now, that was some pretty bright light.
Thank you for speaking your truth.
Well, when you put it like that..... .....
The irony is that the Lefty slime molds that voted for this new fascism won't be singled out for favorable treatment. The gun barrel of a Dept of Fatherland jackboot won't pick 'n choose.
I don't watch the idiot channel and have not for a couple of years now, as I am not into cartoons. I am surprised they let that forum go on as long as they did. There was actually some truth posted.
IT IS INTERESTING HOW DR. KRUGMAN DOESN'T SEE THAT THE CRISIS WE'RE IN FOR WHICH HE PLEDGES HE'S LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS, ACTUALLY WAS TRIGGERED BY THE SOLUTION HE THINKS HE'S FOUND, NAMELY, MONEY PRINTING. HE'S REASONING IS CIRCULAR. YOU CANNOT ASK HIM TO GO BACK IN TIME AND EXPLAIN HOW DID WE END UP PRINTING SO MUCH BY 2007...BECAUSE HE WOULD HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT HAD BEEN THE SOLUTION PROPOSED IN 2001....AND SO BACK ALL THE WAY TO 1913....
To me he sounds like a psychopathic Ponzi scheme operator.
The stock market has been Nationalized
IT IS ALSO INTERESTING HOW DR. KRUGMAN CALLS GOLD WITH DISAFFECTION, A ROCK. I WONDER IF A ROCK IS INTRINSICALLY WORSE THAN A PIECE OF PAPER...BECAUSE IF GOLD IS A ROCK OR FIAT MONEY A PIECE OF PAPER, THE NOBEL PRIZE OF ECONOMICS THEN DOESN'T UNDERSTAND A FUCK ABOUT WHAT MONEY IS. AND PRECISELY BECAUSE HE CLAIMS THAT HIS THEORIES ARE TAUGHT WORLDWIDE....PRECISELY BECAUSE OF THAT, THIS WORLD IS FUCKED AND CANNOT BE UNFUCKED. DR. KRUGMAN, DO YOU REALIZE THAT ARISTOTLE COULD HAVE CLAIMED THE SAME AS YOU WITH REGARDS TO HIS POPULARITY, WHILE IN THE MEANTIME, HUMANITY WAS FUCKED UP FOR A THOUSAND YEARS WITH WRONG THEORIES?
No, the "THE NOBEL PRIZE OF ECONOMICS" precisely understands what fiat money is - a very effective Ponzi-style rip-off scheme which doesn't appear as such, but they don't want that ordinary people understand it - the only reason for so much circus around it ... send in the clowns....
Please don't shout. Thanks,
If the embedded video above is not working for you either, the Druckenmiller video is available at
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000152207 .
While there, see Art Cashin at
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000152041 for some of his interesting insight about whether the current Bullishit market may be sustained for a while or just drift sideways.
It is interesting that virtually everybody, even Jim Cramer(!), now seems willing to acknowledge out loud that this whole financial markets party is a toxic illusion that will end badly. However, many (even here at ZH) have begun to respect the resilient power of Bernanke's Central Bank Theatre and their ability to create an enticing illusion of value.
Until it doesn't.
FINALLY!!! Good discussion. This pumping of the markets keeps it pumping in the wrong direction, its just a perpetuation of the status quo which is not sustainable.
The further the market goes, the more apparent it will be that its not grounded in reality.
What's next?
Goodbye confidence.
Krugman,it seems that you use a lot "maybe's"in your predictions.I always knew that your crystal ball could tell the future.Tell us what will happen to the market when anybody with money even gets the slightest wif that the FED is going to start to unwind.
I always think the headline says Drunken Miller, and I think they are talking about me.