The Last Time The Dow Was Here...

Tyler Durden's picture

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

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fonzannoon's picture

I'd sure as shit have a giant asterisk alongside the debt rating.

Jacque Itch's picture

BTFC (Buy The F'n Criminals)

kaiserhoff's picture


Total debt under GAP or any rational accounting system - add a zero, at least.

164-200 Trillion, but who's counting?

Apparently nobody.

gold-is-not-dead's picture

so it cost 'only' 6 trillions to get the stock market where it was... a bargain...

kralizec's picture

Never has so much been propped up by so few for so much.

Mother of all shorts in the offing.

CH1's picture

Mother of all shorts in the offing.

Yes, but not till Benny stops pumping... or when the Muppets decide to wake up again.

BaBaBouy's picture

USA Magical Land Of Smoke And Mirrors ...


And Brought To You By The Wizards At SackMan GOLD ...

BaBaBouy's picture

PS ... Shorting Market Right Now...


Would Be Like Betting Against Gob'mt-Run Video Poker Machines...

Think Ya' Gonna WIN ???????????

HoofHearted's picture

Yes, this is all going to end well. Eventualy the shorts win....if they can remain solvent.

Shocker's picture

Just putting into that easy chart, comparing the last time we were here its pretty simple.

Everything is up, Debt, Food Stamps, Gas...

Job Layoffs are too



walküre's picture

Debt to GDP has left 100% in the rearview mirror.

Who is fact checking this shit?

TruthInSunshine's picture

The best thing about these very nominal "new" highs on the 30 ticker symbol Dow (re-shuffled and re-loaded with new ticker symbols about 100 times in the last 3 years), as well as the creeping ever higher on the 'levitation of unicorn fiat & central fiat bank fluffers Spooz & Naz, is that the "wealth"-on-statements it create is permanent and "locked in," rather than being "transitory," and therefore not subject to being wiped out, going negative, or otherwise being Corzine'd.

Dow Reaches Record High, Spurred by Fed 
New York Times ‎- 2 hours ago

 “What’s amazing about this bull market is that people still don’t think it’s real,” said Richard Bernstein, chief executive of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a money management firm. “We think this could be the biggest bull market of our careers.”


“How the Fed extricates itself is important,” said Mr. Bernstein, the money manager. “It could happen two, three, four, five years from now.”


 In the meantime, he said, he remains confused about why more investors aren’t buying stocks. “I just don’t understand why people don’t want to play,” he said.


Water is nice &'re gonna' love these markets. Don't miss upside that lay ahead.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Just looking at the S&P, it has gained 128% since the lows put in as of March of 2009, compliments of...

....wait for it....

...the 1.5 trillion USD companies listed on the S&P 500 have expended in buying back their own shares of stock ...the 1.5 trillion USD companies listed on the S&P 500 have expended in buying back their own shares of stock (why wouldn't they when they can float a 3 year corporate bond for 1%, and the execs that are massively compensated vis-a-vis share price can so easily boost that compensation by using such share buybacks?).

"In this run-up, nearly all the buying has come from companies repurchasing their own stock in an effort to boost its value. Companies in the S&P 500 have bought $1.5 trillion since the Great Recession began in December 2007."

See Dow closes at all-time [nominal] high, beating 2007 record

I'm trying to find similar ratios for the Fab 30 Dow and the Nasdaq, but I'd imagine it's roughly proportionate on a market cap ratio basis, as that excerpt suggests.

So, the Fed has printed trillions from thin air, distributed this money base to Primary Dealers and banking/financial entities at near zero cost basis to "invest" (aka speculate, aka gamble), while at the same time, the Federal Reserve has swapped Treasuries for shitty assets banks and financial firms wouldn't otherwise be able to unload (aka "a way above fair market value transaction"), and corporations that are publicly traded on the Dow, Nasdaq & S&P500 have used near free loans to buy back a record amount of their own shares.

And that's your rally in a nutshell, which will end in tears for nearly every person who has purchased or will purchase anything stock "market" related with their own money; aka same as it's always been, but this one is the a 10 trillion dollar bubble inflated in 4 years that will ultimately (once the extreme leverage being utilized, even by recent, historical standards, is accounted for) dwarf the 2000 bust and the 2008 bust.

With a depression-esque economic backdrop, where nearly 1/2 of new cars sold are based on loans provided to individuals with subprime credit ratings (car buyers taking out bigger loans, set new record; 44% of new car loans provided to subprime credit applicants in Q4), the Federal Government (via FHA) guaranteeing 90% of all new home mortgages (FHA inches closer and closer to bailout), an unemployment rate that would easily exceed 15% if the same metric to calculate it during the 1980s were being used today by the BLS (Alternative Measures of the Unemployment Rate), a trillion dollar Student Loan Bubble underway, consumer debt rising to record 2.77 trillion USD , real wages & benefits falling, and the government and quasi-governmental agencies working hand in hand with the Financial/Banking complex to allow these financial & banking entities to get new, even greater leeway in valuing (unicorn & rainbow methodology) their assets, while the BLS and other governmental and Federal Reserve-related (is the Fed governmental or not? It depends on who is asking and why, according to the Fed) also manipulating every statistical economic data point, from the rate of inflation to the rate of GDP growth (which would show contraction for quite a few quarters, including the last one, if it weren't for statistical manipulation)...

...all is well.

MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

It will head north again tomorrow on the Chavez news.

Selling my PM and movng those profits into securities seems to have been the right move, no..?? 

TruthInSunshine's picture

Zambian government issued 20 year bonds bearing 5% are where it's at (or a sign of just how massive Ben's Big Bubble is).

Pairadimes's picture

Just look at those metrics! Why, everything is growing! Some are up by a factor of ten! Just imagine how rich we will all be in five years! Winning!

Holy shit.

Ham-bone's picture

Holdings of US Treasury debt

2007 - Foreign... $2T mostly mid duration - Fed...$1T mostly mid duration

2013 - Foreign...$5.5T mostly bills and short duration - Fed...$3T longer duration (thanks to Op Twist)

Any concerns here that Foreign holders of US debt are standing next to the door and by simply not rolling over (not selling) a spike in short term rates from zero to a lot seems plausible???  Ahhhemm, Fed, that will be your cue to buy everything!?!?!

tbone654's picture

Observation, experience, memory and mathematics—these are what the successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe accurately but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or on the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions may be about man's unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities—that is, try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.  - J. Livermore...

tbone654's picture

John W. Gates:
The tarantula jumped on the centipede's back And chortled with ghoulish glee:
"I'll poison this murderous son of a gun. If I don't he'll poison me!"

klockwerks's picture

Checked out the link. This must be part of this recovery I keep hearing about. But...;the Dow is in record territory. Ain't life grand

resurger's picture

dont even try to short this fucker .. let the big guys short one another..

relax, lay back , and enjoy the show on ZH TV

francis_sawyer's picture

This all got started when the "bottom picker in chief" got on the teleprompter 4 years ago & told everyone "PROFIT TO EARNINGS" ratios were making stawks a buy...


Give that man a trading desk & a margin account!

LawsofPhysics's picture

The monetization of everything and production of nothing of real value.  "winning" - stupid fucks.

tickhound's picture



The Last Time The Dow Was Here...

Digital Highway Road Sign:

Then: "Speed Limit 55, Radar Enforced"

Now: "A Good Neighbor, Is a NOSY Neighbor!  Report Suspicious Activity.  Call Sheriff XXX-XXXX"

Trickle Down National Security

(Sign is on Rt. 5 South near PAX, between Waldorf and Point Lookout, MD.)


pods's picture

Need to hack that sign:

A nosy neighbor is a stinking, bloated corpse.


mademesmile's picture

I saw a sign yesterday that said "sell you gold for gas!"

Trading wealth for consumable products - the new middle class expectation.

Esso's picture

I remember when being a tattle-tale used to be looked down upon...

You've come a long way, baby!

saints51's picture

Some of us still live by those rules. Unfortunately we are a dying breed. +1


Agent P's picture

The Last Time The Dow Was Here...people shopped at JC Penny.

Son of Loki's picture

"No banker left behind."

Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Things were much better then! I was getting laid on the regular by multiple girls. Now, I am lucky to bust a nut once a month(not hand aided). I want to go back!

Anusocracy's picture

Politician's motto: Never leave your banker's behind.

eatthebanksters's picture

Is Sperling the troll that comes through this site and clicks the down arrow on really good comments?

edb5s's picture

Wake up again?  Was the last time the American Revolution?  This makes me think...if a muppet exists, but there is no Goldman around to fleece them, are they still considered a muppet?

KRUZER's picture

,,,,ha,ha ha,,,,still laughing.

El Oregonian's picture

Ben "Captain Edward John Smith" Bernanke: I don't give a damn about that iceberg of debt! FULL SPEED AHEAD!!! ... And that was the last thing we all heard from our 'good' captain....

RafterManFMJ's picture

Um, yeah. More likely, as he's freezing to death in the water, "What the Hell happened!? I charted the same course laid down in 1929 - how could we hit anything?"

Clayton Bigsby's picture

Maybe time to buy some LEAP puts, methinks.....  I'd like to short this motherfucker into the dust when it goes poof...

Stock Tips Investment's picture

Like it or not, the market is not wrong. The stock market depends on many factors, but primarily on supply and demand. Do not forget that the stock market is always ahead of the curve. Current levels do not correspond to the current situation. The current stock market levels correspond to the future situation. No that waste time on discussions, there that earn money.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You need to take a closer look at those volume numbers.

They are 1998 levels, with a huge US population increase and certainly about another billion shares available for trading.  And of this 1998 level of trading with extra traders and extra shares, we have HFT doing 80% of it.

This is not a market, and this is not an event.  If you're aboard, you're just pretending, and some Monday morning the market won't open, nor the next day, nor the next day -- all of which triggered the -20% circuit breakers from futures.

Then someone will decree that prices are back to Friday levels.  Who would argue?

LooseLee's picture

Only a "free" market is not wrong. This market is anything but free. But, to humor all of us, how far out, right now, is this market priced? I'm guessing 2-3 years at least. Not the 6 months the criminals on Wall St. proclaim. So we should expect 3-4% growth by Fall? Ha. What a retard!

Ham-bone's picture

"Market" is not wrong...whatever it is...that is the right answer.  Whether it should be there, whether it is based on money printing or a vision of the future is open to debate but whether "market" is right or wrong is not a debate.  It. Is. What. It. Is. 

Plenty of other "markets" diverging from equities (copper, base metals, BDI, bond market, and on).  How these discrepancies will resolve, that's a good debate.  Debating what is now a historical fact, a new high for the Dow (and likely soon to come for S&P)...seems a waste of time. 

Seems Ben has been fair enough bout all this, has said what he'd do and done what he said (not dissimilar to Hitler???).  It's just nobody thought 1) he'd be crazy nuf to do it and 2) he'd be allowed to do it.  By now, seems time has come to believe Ben will do exactly as he says he will (not to believe the predicted outcomes...just his actions).  He's all in.  He is the market.  "He" (and what he represents) is all that matters in valuing nearly everything.  ?No?

unrulian's picture

Last time Dow was here.......i could Buy Ammo

Captain Kink's picture

Hilarious!  Really, Thank You.

otto skorzeny's picture

God I hate that fucking song

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The Temple of Mother Nature (that Louis sings about) wins each time, every time  -- 1,000,000,000:1 -- compared to the classes, churches and temples of... "The sons of perdition", with their snake oil of "Original Debt" bullshit.  And I apologize to bullshit, as it is far more useful.

smlbizman's picture

this market is like a monk going on a starvation protest and dying from obesity...