The Last Time The Dow Was Here...

Tyler Durden's picture




"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
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Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:24 | 3300807 YungHungAndLegal
YungHungAndLegal's picture

or hypothermia from self immolatation

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:39 | 3301050 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

... Or dying from a thousand butter knife cuts...

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:40 | 3301057 redpill
redpill's picture

Or trying to cure a debt crisis with more debt, ha ha! Oh wait..

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 19:28 | 3302754 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

while masturbating.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:58 | 3300702 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Are there any more nickels in front of that approaching steam roller?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:37 | 3301041 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

THERES NO BUBBLE BUBBLES: http://youtu.be/zJ6VT7ciR1o   theres no Bubble like US, theres no inflation like US, print Berflunky like its OZ  $ 3 trillion,  85 B a month

 

PRINT PRINT PRINTPRINT PRINT.  THERES NO BUBBLE BUBBLES

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:59 | 3300705 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

As we all know, the number means nothing (except to CNBC anchors). 

Can anyone do a quick calculation on today's inflation adjusted Dow Index compared to last time it was 14164?  That is, where does it have to be (really) to be the equivalent to 14164 the last time?  That number still is not significant, I'm just curious.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:00 | 3300714 Sudden Debt
Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:01 | 3300718 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

"we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else."

 

Can I get a date and time for this please?  TIA.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:09 | 3300750 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

At a faux low 2.5% CPI, the equivalent of Oct 2007's 14,164 requires about 16,050 today.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:24 | 3300809 tawse57
tawse57's picture

So do the markets have 16,000 on the DOW in their sights? Will the banksters doing all the share ramping not panic until the DOW reaches the QE inflated price of 16,000?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:16 | 3300775 Undecided
Undecided's picture

march 21st 2013

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:40 | 3300864 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Beware the Ides of March

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:07 | 3300747 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Print moar money!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:37 | 3300792 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Notice that CNBC is no longer allowing comments on the "journalism".  LOL indeed.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:45 | 3300880 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Anytime I'd glance at a CNBC article, there were a couple token "doomer" posters who'd call out all the shit, but they were drowned out by the enormous horde of idiots who thought Bernanke was the fucking savior or something.

It was annoying as hell, but part of me hoped to be able to click on a "Dow Drops 3,000" article one day to hear the bulls crying in their beer and discussing the various ways they'd be killing themselves that night.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:02 | 3300726 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

There's NO inflation.  Haven't you been listening to Bernanke & Co??

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:08 | 3300742 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The crap I have no interest in buying still costs the same.....everything else is going up.

 

Does anyone have a source for 22 long rifle bulk ammo? I'm willing to pay almost anything.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:21 | 3300796 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

.22LR? Good luck. Go to Gunbroker.com and you can bid on lots that are selling for roughly 3x retail (about .15c/round): http://www.gunbroker.com/auction/SearchResults.aspx?Keywords=.22lr

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:44 | 3301074 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Our WalMart has plenty of .22LR.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 18:22 | 3302481 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

LIAR!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:29 | 3300827 Overfed
Overfed's picture

It's been going for $30-$50/500 at the local gunshows. A couple of weeks ago, I did manage to scrounge 10 (50 round) boxes of all different types out of a bin for $12.

It's out there, ya' just have to look.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:04 | 3300941 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

A couple weeks is like doggy years in the ammo market.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 18:20 | 3302456 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I had a table at a show last Saturday, and 22lr was widely available at $50/500 or 550 rds (10 X 50rd. boxes or loose bulk pack). Here and there, it was $40. One guy had some for $25, but it went fast.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:25 | 3301007 hitbox
hitbox's picture

janet napolitano might be able to sell you some.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:39 | 3301268 AussieDogLover
AussieDogLover's picture

bought 2000 rounds in December- had no idea that it would be so valuable now! Hope my betting against the market fairs that good

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:13 | 3300767 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

Disinformation is to blame, and lazy stupid people who want it handed to them.

Yes, well now, if you ask the average person here in North Florida about inflation, they will either look at you like a cow, or say any and every thing is why except the right answer.  Now, you want this to BEGIN to stop, stop listening to FOX and Rush (say how is that coke habit doing theses days?) who HELP the disinformation being bought hook, line, and sinker.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:43 | 3300872 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Oh yea and you get the truth from the shills @ MSNBS that just hired Gibbs and Axlerod ...or NBC,ABC,CBS or CNN that cover nothing of any real relevance to what is going...you probably still think guns are evil...Troll

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:56 | 3300915 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Back to the DU Troll.  Our fuhrer is pleased with your rant.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:23 | 3300806 tawse57
tawse57's picture

I would like to know the answer to your question also - as then we might get a better idea of where a QE3 funded DOW and S&P500 'new high' really is.

The question now is just how much more they will pump it? I suspect Bernanke wants his legacy to be able to say that he over-saw the DOW and S&P 500 at record highs...

Throw in the 85 billion to go along with his ego and it would not surprise me to see a few hundred more points higher on the DOW yet.

I am a bear. I want this thing to crash. I have been waiting for it to crash but I can't see any sign of it doing so for a few hundred points more yet.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:48 | 3301091 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Why should they ever stop pumping it? Seems to me they've happened upon the magic formula. Bonds still giving a nice return and the 10-year will be a bargain anywhere above 2%. The only things that won't win in this deflationary scenario are precious metals and a rare few hold them.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 14:45 | 3301500 Esso
Esso's picture

Yeah, the majik formula works, until it doesn't.

You know what they say: On a long enough timeline...

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:45 | 3300881 fuu
fuu's picture

The shitty BLS Inflation Calculator says 15731.50 is the new 14164.50.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:28 | 3301226 FSM_47
FSM_47's picture

Inflation Calculator: Bureau of Labor Statistics - http://s.shr.lc/Z7l6w7  $15730

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:38 | 3300810 holgerdanske
holgerdanske's picture

 

"BTFC (Buy The F'n Criminals)"

 

Eeerh yes, right! Not bury, by any chance?? Yes?, well? no?!

Dyslaxie lures teh rowld!!!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:46 | 3300883 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Zimmerman now says S&P to 1590!!

"We've been looking at 1,480 as critical support. That held. So there's a chance of one more leg up, maybe to 1,590, best case. Everything leads to a big brick wall overhead at 1,590."

 

 

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100519002   

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:20 | 3301196 God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

Excuse me Jacque, I believe your spelling was slightly off, if I might help you friend.

It,

BURY the F'kn Criminals!

I do believe that is the right sentiment.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:48 | 3300654 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

And just think.  It ONLY took tens of trillions in liquidity injections by global CBs.  So easy!  Krugman's right, let's print 100 trillion and get the DOW to 36,000 and everyone on planet Earth can retire.

[/sarc] of course.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:56 | 3300696 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

that smug little fucking jew was on charlie rose last night- it's easy to see where the east coast arrogance of guys like him and summers and geithner will take us straight to hell with them

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:00 | 3300711 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

everyone retire?  WTF?

Keep yo hand off my kibbles & bits.

 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:04 | 3300731 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Krugman told us deficit's don't matter so and it looks like he was right.  I'm going out today to max out all my credit cards cuz thats the winning formula.  I'm tired of being a loser

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:04 | 3300735 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

You mean as in "not rated", given that both Egan and S&P have been sent to the penalty box for game misconduct?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:44 | 3301283 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

And that GDP growth rate too...odd thing about the entire list is nothing on it apparently affects ipad sales, food sales, etc...if you have enough inflation you can show ISM growth, retail growth, GDP growth..etc...less volume offset by more cost.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 20:06 | 3302880 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This is going to end very very badly.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:38 | 3300594 Cultural Capital
Cultural Capital's picture

Change you can believe in. 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:43 | 3300622 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Ben Bernanke is truly the financial David Copperfield...and CNBC is definitely his props.

 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:57 | 3300700 resurger
resurger's picture

Harry Houdini is no match to the chair satan

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 10:44 | 3300634 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Foward! Soviet!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:03 | 3300727 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Rise above.  More Hopium.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:36 | 3301257 mkucstars
mkucstars's picture

Buddy can you spare a dime?

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