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The Last Time The Dow Was Here...
"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
- Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
- GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
- Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
- Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
- Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
- US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
- US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
- Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
- US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
- Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
- Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
- S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
- VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
- 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
- USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
- EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
- Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
- NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
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NEW YORK — J.C. Penney, which is struggling with big losses and steep sales declines, could face another challenge: empty shelves.
http://online.wsj.com/article/APbd72856d56884e7b95ae7f0b968af57b.html
Who cares if JCp goes bust. Many more businesses can go bust. As long as we have Bubble Bernanke and the the fed throwing money at it's member banks all is fine.
The Fed is stuck (100% guaranteed) to supply ever-increasing QE monthly to sustain the economy. Just trade as though the fed is stuck until a currency crisis with the US dollar evolves.
Well, at least gold is getting beat to shit again. WTF? I guess it is just fucking impossible to let the tiny PM markets have anything on the nominal overprinting of digitz and that shit is not right. One has to wonder what makes them so nervous as if it is not obvious. We are the ones who are correct. End of story.
Number one rule...Don't fight the Fed.
Anyone shorting stocks over the last 12 months because the were worried about the Fed balance sheet got their muther fucking face ripped off.
Don't fight the Fed, you will loose.
Of course, when the music stops and the Fed dies along with our monetary system, you could be a WINNER!!!!!
"Don't fight the Fed, you will loose."
Don't fight English, you will LOSE.
Nah. Real ORGANIC non-manipulated trends like demand and FISCAL (vs. monetary policies) overstep the Federal Reserve.
Remember the dot com sector? that demand was real, I was trading it. People really wanted QCom at $700 and the volume was really there, even when Greenspan raised the interest rates.
I strongly believe that other things like oil prices, real estate prices, etc. popped the tech bubble.
Reagan's tax cuts did wonders for business investments and job creation.
We could really live without the Federal Reserve.
Prepare for the Worst: Celente on 2013
Video
http://homment.com/jHTBQnDGS4
A short list of the achievements that will likely revitalize the United States, and underpin a strong stock market over the next decade:
- Health Care Reform (passed and being implemented).
- Iraq war successfully wound down to a soft landing.
- America on the road to energy independence.
- Fiscally, the US is now close to closing the budget gap to 3% GDP by 2015, followed by eliminating it (if it so wished) by 2020, without a major tax increase or reforms to the tax code --- a stunning achievement.
- Economically, American industry and firms are once again world leaders.
- Militarily, the US military is on the cusp of a rebuild and revolution that will rival the introduction of Naval Aviation and Aircraft.
Not all of this is even priced into the market yet!
What?
SARC????? Hope so.
I want some of whatever you're having!
LOL...
we are fucked
cash out NOW
If you want to go in IR just say so as I do not have much on the plate for today. Pretty interesting headline from the HuffPo.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/05/dow-record-high_n_2783096.html
I have a little in, but it's discernable at best. I'm mostly cash and hard assets. I think we will get to 15K and then the trap is set......FLUSH.
As of 9 months ago, I am 100% in hard assets and out of paper completely. I doubt I will ever go back into paper. Nothing against anyone who likes paper trading but it is just not my deal.
I was mainly referring to the link though IR. I know it's not popular on ZH to admit you have a HuffPo account. I do have one and my username is, get this: Manipuflation.
I don't log in often there but it would almost appear that someone has put on their "thinking cap" on over there to at least some degree, however low wattage a model it may be.
Watch therefore: for you know not when the master of the house comes, at evening, or at midnight, or at the cockcrowing or in the morning.
Lest coming suddenly he find you sleeping.
And what I say unto you I say unto all; Watch.
WELL DONE BERNANKE !! FREE MONEY TO THE UBER WEALTHY (80% OF STOCK OWNERSHIP WITHIN THE TOP 5%...)
Listened again....buy, buy buy. Nevermind me selling, selling, selling. Jim Cramer is such a shill for...vapor.
If I hear that man sell vapor one more time... I'm setting my phaser to Vaporize, and I'll "JC that JC, and have him meet JC"*. Kirk out.
* Jon Corzine that Jim Cramer and... meet Jesus Christ
Dow Enters All Time High = DEATH
Bob Pisani is currently showing a chart titled "Bull Market".
The first two of the six items on the chart:
1. Fed backstopping economy
2. Economy improving
Now, if I didn't know any better, I would say if #2 were true then there would be no need for #1.
dow 20k???
time to go long folx :D
You first!
One last BIG HOORAY!!
Look at the bright side....we have about the same number of banksters in jail as last time! Just that kook from Stanford and good old Bernie Madoff. No Jamie Diamond, Jon Corzine or Lloyd Blankfein.... they are still busy doing God's work!
Look at the bright side....we have about the same number of banksters in jail as last time! Just that kook from Stanford and good old Bernie Madoff. No Jamie Diamond, Jon Corzine or Lloyd Blankfein.... they are still busy doing God's work!
Priced in Gold, still very far from the highs!!
Bubble Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen can never exit ever-increasing QE.
It's need just to sustain the economy now.
Watch the Fed's balance sheet continue to grow. LOL, their trapped unless they default and delete it.
$253.5B—Obama Borrowed Nearly 6x as Much in February
This will end ugly. Looks like the Fed is just blowing one bubble after another, and this one may end up being the biggest one of all. Stupid motherfuckers!
Printing money on this scale is near God-like in its ability to manipulate. And its practitioners have to feel like they are snorting cocaine for a living.
But Chaos will smite them down and grind them into the dust.
Well...they ARE snorting cocaine for a living.....
Th bottle of wine (Dow) is being auctioned right now at $14,265.
The problem is that there is only one bidder: The federal reserve.
I'm waiting for U turning into PU. Debtor: IR. Price: Priceless.
Bidders: il defended folks via Federated Bloggers Inc, Centrally Integrated Alliance, and Faux Flag Contracts
Kerry on with the Kerry okey.
/heavy sarc + double entendre
Nothing more than a bunch of goddamn criminals trying to keep a positive backdrop so that they continue operation global gobble which kicked off by the US gov't blowing up the center of NYC on 9-11.
Don't ever let that subject die. We have more than enough evidence to hang these motherfuckers.
No statute of limitation on murder.
.
Shows the extent of wealth inequality. Exactly how it is in 3rd world country.
And all that money they are printing is going down the same drain...the stock market right now....when it moves to the new thing...that will balloon too...I think that will be PM¨S at some point...this printing is not good...and its going to get faster and faster as Japan has picked up the can and is running with it...and no one likes a cheater....the currency war is on...and its going to get big and mean....
"US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion"
At least ONE cohort has figured it out...
Let's not forget that my insurance premium was half of what it is today as was my deductible. Just that and higher gas prices alone are pinching the middle class (or what's left of them). But there is no inflation right?
They'll keep raising prices until we stop paying them. Then they'll back off just enough so that payments start trickling in again and they will maintain your poverty status.
The last big market moment i remember was 1999. QCOM was $745 a share and i was jerking off to my E trade web page. I made a mess out of my Dell monitor. Lesson learned.... Never get man juice on your monitor screen
#bullish:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/05/dow-jones-stock-markets
% of Wealth owned by top 5%: Then 45%, now 55%
Real Average Income: Then $51K, now $47K
LOL, the fed is stuck.
Bernanke and the Fed have to keep increasing QE/month amounts to keep the game going.
The US debt's only buyer through it's member banks.
There are no problems. Only Bloomberg and his infinite money source.
Gas prices are near their all-time high, too--where are the celebrations? Oh, wait--people must be off celebrating the all-time highs that were just reached in car prices, farmland and grains. Or, if they live in the NYC area, maybe they're off celebrating the all-time highs that were just hit in bridge and tunnel tolls and subway fares. LOL...so much all-time-high celebrating to do!
The headline should read, "Economy Down and Falling, Stocks at Record Highs and Rising"
What an Orwellian world we live in. hujel
and it's gong`d...
ME then, 1 oz gold, now , moar
I was watching the show 'Red Widow' last night, and there was a scene in it that reminded me of the stock market and our current economic sitcheeashun.
The family is in their grandfathers Russian restaurant, which has been in their family for years, and all of a sudden the teenage daughter asks "how does grandpa keep this place open?" Her brother, who knows full well what the real family business is and knows that the restaurant is merely a front, asks "what do you mean?"
"I mean there's never anyone in here. How does it make any money?"
The brother thinks for a second and says "Catering. They do lots of catering. And stuff."
Funny, isn't it, how organized crime always has all the right answers?
Re-posting
DOW is simply a auction object with one bidder only, the Government - Federal Reserve.
The bidder can assign any price he wants, 14254, 17000, 21000, any.
It's no longer a market. It is simply an object for adoration.
As Greenspan said, it's not jobs that matters. It's the stock market is the only thing that matters.
From the mouth of one of the biggest bubble makers (DOTCOM and housing) in history.
Gas, toll fees, car prices could triple from here. It doesn't matter for the 1%. As long as fund managers and Wall Street makes some
100,000 reads
Fucking awesome!
That was then and this is now, Stop the BS the market will never correct again! Big O and uncle Ben will never let us lose money..................
Even "Outstanding" is lacking a T
Call the Chuck Prince Big Band
We're all going dancin'
The ultimate then vs now = $BDI. ~10,000 to ~800.
=
"It's all about BRIC."
YTD:
EWZ -1.50%
RSX -3.54%
EPI -4.58%
FXI -5.50%
All four are down, yet SPY is +8.33%. UNREAL.
Correct it's all about the BRICs. EUR should be over 1.30, DXY should be sub 75, Gold should be over 1800, commodities should be lock step with equities. Total disconnect, with a flashing warning signal that we are a whisper away from a deflationary collapse..yes with oil inflation on top.
If Asia and South America blows up, all the money printing in the world won't do sh*t.
First up North Korea is about to nullify truce:
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/03/05/0200000000AEN20130305010...
lol
NEVER underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral.
Short cash and cash equivalents at all costs!!!
Thanks Alice. So I see that this is what the other side of the rabbit hole looks like.
grrreeeaaatt...more reasons to pump higher.
higher it scoots heavier the fall will be.
If the DJIA was priced in gold, it would be 49% lower today than its closing high on 10/09/2007.
US sells $25B of 52-week bills at 0.150%http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=dc7ebd4b-dc...
I want to see how many opened short positions today.
So in other words sustainable growth.
stay awake
The very second Nixon took the U.S. off of the gold standard, the Japanese started buying as much US Treasuries as they could to ride the value of the USD down.
This enabled the US Government to go into a federal spending DEFICIT. This way, politicians can pimp taxpayers out to useless lobbyists for access to these loans in exchange for bribes..
Now everyone and their grandmothers (China, Russia, OPEC, Japan, Israel...) have bought US Treasuries and government bonds to ride the value down, giving the government literally huge leverage to sponsor their favorite lobbyists and delegates with.
It's no wonder why there were only 19 IPOs last year (as opposed to 675 IPOs back in 1996).
There's NO INVESTMENTS GOING INTO OUR PRIVATE SECTOR BUSINESS BACKED STOCKS!!!
Clinton signed NAFTA with China, yet the Multilateral Investment Agreement between the U.S. and China in 1995 was a bust because China kept putting up barriers to the US financial sector. Malaysia and India were referees.
So later Deregulation was passed in 1999 and the "cash flow" into the U.S. is debt and nothing more.
I'm not an economist, fund manager, trader, etc. Just a layperson, without any financial or economic background, trying to understand what is going on and trying to figure out what the correct strategy for my future should be.
What an earlier poster wrote on this thread really summarizes the situation. To paraphrase: "We know a big earthquake is inevitable but we don't know the place or the time when it will occur."
From what I've read thus far about economic history, as it relates to our situation here in the USA, it seems the smartest thing to do is stay nimble and liquid. To hold onto cash because the first phase of a collapse or bubble pop is deflationary. And THAT is the time when you take out your checkbook (at the bottom) and buy hard assets: farm land, income properties, blue chip stocks of companies that supply needed staples, gold, etc. and then ride the inflationary wave upwards.
When the balloon pops, the seams split, the pail starts leaking, the floorboards open up, etc. etc. that is when the mal-investments, printing, intervention, false media, delusion, corruption, etc. all come home to roost. Those deflationary forces will be overwhelming and not even 1,000 Bernankes and CBs will be able to stop it.
In that deflationary phase (a true bottom)... BEFORE they turn on the printing presses full bore in utter desperation, and drive us into massive inflation (maybe even hyper-inflation), is when you get out of USD and into tangibles at the best bargain prices you'll ever see in lifetimes.
I think we know that this is going to happen because Bernanke and all world CBs, being Keynesians, are terrified of deflation and would rather die, would rather destroy the economy and the currency, then allow deflation to hit.
That's my take on it and the strategy I am following, unless further education/insight in the near future, influences me to change it.
I welcome any devil's advocate, challenges, advice, support, references, etc. because this is the subject to debate upon and learn about since economics comprises 9/10ths of our lives.
"When the balloon pops, the seams split, the pail starts leaking, the floorboards open up, etc. etc. that is when the mal-investments, printing, intervention, false media, delusion, corruption, etc. all come home to roost. Those deflationary forces will be overwhelming and not even 1,000 Bernankes and CBs will be able to stop it."
Like when and like where? a bust doesn''t mean prices will go down. a bust is massive reduction in productive capacity of the economy. it is not a massive decrease in prices. there may be some prices that fall in this environment but there are more than likely going to be a lot of prices that rise exponentially as people try and get there hands on something that will protect them from the future printing that at that point will be known.
riphowardkatz: It would seem to me that if we are in a monetary bull market (the stock market shooting up, housing starting to rise, student loans rising, etc. all due to The Fed) that assets are inflating and they will deflate when we hit the wall. I think more prices will come down then will stay or rise. Oil, energy and food prices are inflating now thanks to The Fed. I believe they will all briefly come down in price when the bust comes and before the REAL PRINTING begins.
this article is about hitting the wall yet everything is still up...the following is hitting the wal very hard....
this article is about hitting the wall yet everything is still up...the following is hitting the wal very hard....
In Amerika, people in positions of authority and power take a very dim view of the populace. The idea is to keep the manipulation going so as to prevent riots and dysfunction, and keep people "locked in" to whatever they are doing. The goal: pacify and keep people alive until they grow old and demented and then they can pass away in a nursing home somewhere.
Anything, anything to keep the illusion going. No liquidation, no catharsis at any point is allowed.
What they don't realize is that their very actions cause the need for the illusion in the first place. It's a vicious spiral.
If you say you have to create digital money to keep the value of stocks and housing high and keep treasury rates low, then by definition you have to keep printing and printing to infinity. There is no perfect value at which everything balances. Any downturn is perceived as risky and is met by even more intervention.
If, on the other hand, you allow the market to clear, then yes, millions of Amerikan peasants will be losers and will be bankrupt. But the winners will be those who are prudent, save, and look for value.
The people in power don't think such people exist anymore. They've pretty given up all hope on the populace. Which is why the charade has to continue.
Keep in mind the Dow is really back to where it was before, and adjusted for even manipulated inflation, has gone down in real terms.
That is hardly exciting. Do not go crazy and certainly don't buy. Just think...the largest companies are treading water for 13 years. Sounds about right.
So who will get stuck with the proverbial "hot potato?"
REflation Bitchez!!!
Big and little numbers make me thirsty.
And all thanks to Ben BerSpankMe!
after the internet bubble it took over 4 years to build up a housing bubble to replace it. we're now exactly 4 years removed from the bottom of the housing crash. i know that the sort of derivatives speculation that was part of the housing mess has continued unabated. will history repeat itself? i don't see why not. only a matter of when
for what it's worth, the composite index of NYSE-traded stocks has only recovered 78% of its losses while the S&P 500, like the DOW, is approaching historic highs. don't know what accounts for the discrepancy
I wonder if CNBC will have a special, a celebration and a tribute to everyone that has received food stamps when we
hit:
50 Million.............a true success story!