The Last Time The Dow Was Here...

Tyler Durden's picture

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

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McMolotov's picture

This really is arrested development.

PUD's picture

YES WE CAN! HOPE AND CHANGE!

thismarketisrigged's picture

i want to fucking punch bob pasani.

 

first he says that china rebounding overnight is a main factor in todays rally. really bob? really? u mean when china dropped nearly 4 percent the day before, we still went green, but now that they are up 2 percent lastnight, we follow there lead?

 

same with europe. europe down 2-3 percent we go green and dont follow, europe positve 2-3 percent, we deff follow there lead.

fonzannoon's picture

Bob Pisani has one job and that is to make you lose your freakin mind. He probably lives in a nice house. When you walk in there is plastic on all the furniture and his family members are all mummified around the house where they committed hari kari. He sits there by himself and eats mac and cheese while practicing his china growth story on their petrified corpses.

You know I'm right Bob!

Temporalist's picture

It's all a facade of relevancy for the financial news outlets.

It's not that moron Pisani's fault alone obviously because every financial channel and website does the same instant gratification news story for the zombie viewers/readers because clearly that is what sells.  Today it was China, yesterday it was the iPhone 0, the day before that it was Eurozone being saved...and the headlines only last so long for the markets to be ramped right before the rug is pulled out from under anyone that actually believes the bullshit.  Tell me you haven't seen a completely incorrect and farcical headline stay up longer than it should; something saying the reasons why stocks are skyrocketing when they are falling.  Every day, every night, in every market around the world these idiot investors must be TOLD what to believe or it's not real.

I mean, if they don't have a reason for why the markets move what will people do?  You must believe in the financial press they must stay relevant!

How else would you find out that Tiger Woods was a sexaholic if not for the finance channels?  How else would you know that some Whoredashian placed her ass on a trading desk if not for the financial news?  How else would you hear about how gold's bull market ended 5, 6, 7, 8 years ago if not for them?  How else would you know that housing bottomed 1, 2, 3 and4 years ago if not for them?

Relevance...and they know they don't have it but they sure are trying to make it seem that way.

fonzannoon's picture

either way his family is mummified and he eats mac and cheese alone on his plastic couch while talking to them. I don't think that point is even debatable.

Temporalist's picture

True.  I up arrowed you but that was all I could do.  I'll buy you an ice cream some day.

asteroids's picture

For those that remember 1999 the markets climbed for months, the NASDAQ soared. It was crazy, it made no sense. Then, the crash came in 2000. Now 12 years later, the QQQ's are nowhere near their old time highs. History may not repeat itself, but it does rhym.

Seasmoke's picture

Job well done Kevin !!!!

azzhatter's picture

Priced in gold, not so good

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

What do you price your gold in?

pods's picture

Troy oz.

And also purity for the self dug variety.

pods

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Mr. Spock tells me that he 'loves' it when financial people talk Math, not Meth.  Or use the former, instead of the latter.

"If we normalize the daily stock prices, and therefore daily stock indices, to the daily price of gold, we get a more accurate numerical and graphical result as to what it really happening", says Spock.

To which I say to him: "You mean, Mr. Spock, if I price these Complex Numbers (with real and imaginary components) of 'The Market' relative to real stuff, I get better information?"  "Yes, Captain.  But in your case, you may price it in... from the Virgo cluster".  I didn't hear the last part.  Kirk out.  ;-)

Seriously though, if this hasn't been done already, I'd like to see the Excel data & graphs for said prices and debts normalized to gold.

madddmaxxx's picture

Other than those few things, I don't see a problem

Kaiser Sousa's picture

Iwatches will be falling from the skies...

Its morning again in Dumbmerica...

head out to walmart after paying $5 dollars a gallon for yo gas and buy some half empty bags of potatoe chips "at all time highs".....

what a fucking joke......

walküre's picture

Support Walmart! They are reporting slower than ever sales. The NEW NEW economic un-recovery where all time high is all time stupid!

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Better round that out with some AAPL and FB. Diversification is the key.

tickhound's picture

Banzai that's brilliant.  Simple.  All the implied religious faith too... powerful irony.   more pls :)

resurger's picture

This should be printed on Highway billboards WB7

CaptainSpaulding's picture

Outstanding. His very last words to Scrooge.. " While there is still time, Save yourself"

-A Christmas carol, 1951

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Or analogy to a Bob Marley tune: No banker, no cry.

gnomon's picture

And I thought I had lost my ability to laugh.  This should be tucked away into the historical archives for future historians.  "Mad Ben" nails it, the whole of the madness and the menace.  This is a masterpiece.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

This is working out just like they planned. More money for the usually subsidized upper 5-8% and more financial burden on everyone else. Meanwhile the sheople drive around cluelessly to the next shopping experience.

Expect nothing to change until this untenable system falls apart under its own weight...for the lower 85-95%. The upper 5% will just move on to new hunting grounds like they always do.

goldenbuddha454's picture

exactly!  And remember that old saying 'what the wiseman does first, the fool does last'.  So the lemmings that pile into equities now are so going to get what they didn't expect.

Sudden Debt's picture

like the sheeple say: IT'S OUT OF OUR HANDS! WE CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT! ... did you see where the remote of the TV is?...

 

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Planned? Not so sure. Hanlon's razor. i think they are totally, fucking clueless.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

That's likely true too. However, the whole thing was planned from the start to ensure that wealth flows upward and that will continue until it falls apart. Sure, a few hustlers and players with big bucks will get taken out and they will be held up as poor victims and to show that the big boyzzz get hit too. But you can bet the well connected insiders will walk away or be driven away in their limo, float away on their yacht, flown away in their jet, etc... unscathed.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

It's probably a combination of the two. The system probably was designed to keep the wealthy, wealthy. But I think it has grown into a beast that they no longer know how to control, and at this point they are going to milk it for all they can.

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

One system's downfall is another's rise. I've been thinking long and hard about this and I think I have at least conceptually a way to undermine this whole mess and restore a free market that would be a libertarians wet dream and can't be regulated.

Going from concept to reality is another story but the fundamentals are already in place.

Ludwig Van's picture

DCH -- So how much longer you gonna keep us in suspense?

If you want to take it offline, just say the word and we'll arrange it (although you know there's nothing online that goes unexamined anymore).

.

yogibear's picture

Bubble Bernanke and the Fed keep the QE pedal mashed it has to go somewhere. The member banks buy stocks.

Now 85 billion per month. If that doesn't work Bernanke will do much more. Bernanke increases it to 130 billion per month? Then keep increasing it.

Let me know when Bubble Bernanke is doing $250 billion per month in QE. 

 

 

Dr. No's picture

The adjusted monetary base was $700Billion.

 

Today it is $2800 billion.  A trillion dollars doesnt seem to go as far as it used to.

falak pema's picture

on that basis the DJIA is at : 14200/4 = 3550!

So yes let her rip up! As the USd invested in risk asset value buys less earnings per buck invested. 

Its a crazy  biflationary world : as the $ price of the profit premium rises, the price of an Ipad in $ drops. 

Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Thank God IPads are dropping, I'm staving over here.

polo007's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price-weighted_index

A price-weighted index is a stock market index where each constituent makes up a fraction of the index that is proportional to its price. For a stock market index this implies that stocks are included in proportions based on their quoted prices. A stock trading at $100 will thus be making up 10 times more of the total index compared to a stock trading at $10. This is different from a market weighted index where stocks are included based on the equity market values of the underlying companies, i.e. the quoted stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding.

The development of a price-weighted index will not accurately reflect the evolution of the underlying market values. This is so because the $100 stock above might be that of a small company and the $10 stock that of a large company. A change in the price quote of the small company will thus drive the price-weighted index (as it makes up a large part of the index) while the combined market values will remain relatively unaffected without changes in the price quote of the large company. Moreover, constant rebalancing needs to take place. The quoted price for each stock used in the calculation of the index is redefined so that each index constituent has an appropriate weight in the index at each rebalancing date. An Adjustment factor is introduced to a stock, that is assigned to the stock at each rebalancing date, which allows for price weighting. For index component, the value would be[1]:

Adjustment Factor= Index specific constant "Z"/(Number of shares of the stock*Adjusted stock market value before rebalancing)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225 are examples of price-weighted stock market indexes.

falak pema's picture

DOW JONES

calling bob janjuah; I wanna my money bakk!

calling robot trader : yor the man!

calling humpty dumpty : now, now, stay on that wall and don't go all baloony.

busted by the bailout's picture

Yes, but then we were operating in, at least, quasi-reality.  Now it's complete fantasy, so, unfortunately, the comparable statistics are irrelevant.

DaveyJones's picture

lie rates then 67%, now 98%

disabledvet's picture

The support for equities as it always has been and will be is enforced inequality. Sorry but there is no bubble in equities...the bubble that burst in 2008 was a PROPERTY bubble...and the Fed blowing that up (criminally in my view) in fact was putting a floor in equities as much as a top. The corporate responds has been beyond all measure extraordinary and equities will push higher from here fully knowing that they only need the bare minimum of growth to sustain their business models. I expect cap ex to increase impressively for the rest of the year, sales across all platforms and outlets to continue to improve and profit margins to maintain if not expand as USA Inc's "incomparable advantages" simply overwhelm the competition which has been utterly OBLITERATED these last two years. The economy is a problem for the POLITY not the markets...and as good as USA Inc will be doing America Inc looks in REALLY bad shape. Taxes, revenues, and a war all gone south, collapsed cities, broken budgets...nothing but interest payments on the debt for "your benefit check." we'll see what the solution our "Boomers" wish to provide. "they doth protest period" comes to mind.

adr's picture

There is no corproate cash for cap ex. The cash doesn't exist, it is all faked on paper. What cash there is has been used for share buybacks to boost EPS in the hopes the algs will run the stock higher giving the insiders a higher ledge to jump off with the mother of all golden parachutes.

THAT IS BUSINESS TODAY.

I am knee deep in the muck of real business and I can tell you for an absolute fact that it is worse than ever. You can't have real profit without real sales. Crap bought on credit is not a real sale if the credit is never paid.

seek's picture

In tech, at least, there's billions of corporate cash. The problem is there's no cap ex worth spending it on, because real market growth is gone, what's left is unpredictable and as a result it's not a rational decision to drop billions on new capital improvements -- no payout. This is a huge red flag about where the economy really is at, when companies sit on cash because there's no place they can invest it (in a real sense) that has a ROI.

I'm seeing the same as far a business goes. I've mentioned it before a couple weeks ago, but the new dirty little secret is how bad off many IBs/hedges are again.

DaveyJones's picture

"Sorry but there is no bubble in equities...the bubble that burst in 2008 was a PROPERTY bubble"

looks like you bought their line

we're not dealing with "equities" here, we're dealing with an entire credit economy and system that is a bubble. A bubble compared to the real resources that allegedly back it.

The largest in human history

HD's picture

 "No one could see it coming!" is coming.

 

 

 

 

El Hosel's picture

" No one could see it coming" came and went.... Now even Cramer can see it coming, whats that say? DOW 20,000?

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If not The Ides of March, then beware of an October Surprise.

JIT for the blame-game (blame it on GOP!) and Congressional mid-terms in 2014.