The Last Time The Dow Was Here...

Tyler Durden's picture

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

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Shizzmoney's picture

Fifty-nine percent of Americans responding say the U.S. is in a recession vs. 35% who say it isn't. That includes 61% of independents. But those readings haven't changed much in recent months.

Read More At IBD: Economic Optimism Plunges; 59% Say U.S. In Recession: IBD/TIPP Poll - Investors.com http://news.investors.com/economy/030513-646760-ibd-tipp-economic-optimism-index-dives-in-march.htm#ixzz2MgCPy49M Let's buy some stocks, guys!
Floodmaster's picture

ZHr's should have bought stocks, not gold. Since 2011 Gold 0%, DOW 40%.

Bingfa's picture

Everyone I know isn't buying PM's for an investment, It's called wealth preservation.

There's an 22 acre parcel adjoining my property, THAT is an investment.

Boxed Merlot's picture

There's an 22 acre parcel adjoining my property, THAT is an investment...

 

Only if the rule of law is preserved and you can afford the taxes until your death.  Neither of which is a guarantee with the current regime, imo.

Otherwise, well, tentmaking used to be a profitable trade, could be again.  Gotta do something with all those horsehides.

Black Markets's picture

Exactly, but too narrow minded to admit it in public.

 

You could have 40% more gold if you had played it properly.

Vooter's picture

LOL...everyone could have a quintillion dollars if they just "played it properly." People would never have car accidents if they just played it properly. I could have had the prettiest girl...or the fastest car...or the biggest house...if I had just had the foresight to play it properly. Get it, moron? We live on EARTH, not on Planet Play It Properly...

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Coulda, woulda, shoulda."  Post-game quarterbacking does NOT count. 

Of course the really smart money (TPTB) is/are now selling at the top, then (a) keeping some in cash, (b) preserving some in low-priced PM, and (c) investing some in quality real estate -- preferably with cashflow or cattle.  The part in Cash they'll keep for after The Crash, when there's "blood on the streets".  That's THE perfect time to buy again, according to the House of Rothschild.

So, Armchair Quarterbacks, did YOU do what I just described?  Or are are you "All hat and no cattle"?

Vooter's picture

Yeah, but now we have gold, and you don't. What don't you get?

1835jackson's picture

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha...ha this is a funny market.

Meat Hammer's picture

Mrs. Meat looked at me last night and said something very insightful.  "If we don't get filthy rich we're going to be dirt poor".  

She is absolutely right.  This is going to end very badly and if we don't capitalize on this wealth transfer we're going to be in some serious hurt.

Racer's picture

And what percentage of the population benefits from this jump to the records?

A record low percentage number of people I would imagine and of those that do benefit I would  also say they have record wealth transfer effect

And also record high energy costs and food bills for the rest of us.

I can't wait for the revolution

El Hosel's picture

The Stock "Market", apparently the only business that thrives on lack of interest and participation ( Volume )... Nobody is in the restaurant but hey, at least business is great!

Black Markets's picture

 

 

Today lays bare in full crystal clear transparent clarity the absurdity of the ZH community where people expect BOTH high/hyper inflation and a falling stock market.

 

The value of cash/deposits is what is crashing, you need to get your savings out of cash and into any enduring asset that you are comfortable holding; gold, scrap metal, S&P500, crude oil futures, real estate, a bakery, anything anything that is not cash.

 

People need to accept that the dogma that the market will crash AND there will be an inflationary blow out is pure nonsense. These views are totally at odds with each other.

 

 

We have an environment of plummeting monetary velocity and soaring money supply, the result is a climate of stagflation whilst first receivers of the new money acquire all the asset equity in the economy. Once there is nothing left to buy QE will be redirected from Wall St to Main St and monetary velocity will accelerate and the real economy will take off with it. There will be a one time inflationary impact of this ‘kick-start’ but that will simply enrich the owners of the asset equity.

 

Expect inflation, because this market is not going to go down any time soon, it is being inflated by stripping purchasing power from all USD deposits and redirecting it to the primary dealers. Trade volumes will continue to tail of as the accumulation and centralization of securities become more and more difficult. Only once volume grinds to a standstill will the Fed finally redirect QE to channels that offer greater monetary velocity.

 

 

 

ebworthen's picture

"QE will be redirected from Wall St to Main St and monetary velocity will accelerate and the real economy will take off with it."

When pigs fly.

HD's picture

No it's true.

Everyone will get a free cookie...not a good cookie mind you, with chocolate or fudge - but a free cookie. 

But who am I to look a gift horse (meat) cookie in the mouth?

 

 

Black Markets's picture

 

It's not a free cookie, it's somebody elses cookie. It belonged to a saver or any owner of currency or deposits.

HD's picture

Nope.

I just got a text alert alert on my FREE Obama phone - says come get a FREE cookie. Maybe they'll top off my FREE EBT card while I'm down at the cookie give away.

 

 

 

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Bingo, that's why the currency will die.  Got physical?  So many paper promises, no fucking collateral.

Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Real economy a.k.a. buying chinese crap in Walmarts?

Bad Attitude's picture

When Walmart still had ammunition, most of it was still made in the US of A.

tawdzilla's picture

What if there is one more deflationary bust before said hyperinflation?  We currently have +/- $122T in public and private debt...4 times more debt (as a % of the economy) than right before the great depression.  Can Benny and the Inkjets print enough to avoid a collapse?...maybe, maybe not.  

While it would be easier to digest your scenario where all events happen in a predictable straight line, that is usually not how things really play out.  We're living on a razor's edge right now, and we could end up falling off of either side. 

Black Markets's picture

"What if there is one more deflationary bust before said hyperinflation?  We currently have +/- $122T in public and private debt...4 times more debt (as a % of the economy) than right before the great depression.  Can Benny and the Inkjets print enough to avoid a collapse?...maybe, maybe not."

It is obvious to anybody that the unfunded liabilities are unaffordable… So do you believe it is more likely that

1). The unfunded liabilities will destroy the US bond market and precipitate the collapse of the US dollar.

2). The unfunded liabilities will be amended when the bond market demands it and dramatically reduced and reshuffled off the government’s responsibility and back to the responsibility of private citizens.

 

 

tawdzilla's picture

Your question is un-answerable, because we currently do not have a bond "market."  The bond market which you speak of has been tied up, mouth covered with duct tape, and thrown into a trunk of a Lincoln Town Car for the time being. 

The real question is...when do we get our bond market back (if ever)? 

jplains04's picture

Look at the Volume number...Dried up like a 70 year old lady's titty...just hanging like a wet sock filled with sand...awful..So basically, the FED print money and buys the market, give money to the TBTF Banks at rediculous rates to just buy the market...these guys are just an embarassment!

Floodmaster's picture

Volume -> Stocks are dead, remove the Illegal Investment Banking and the sp500 is at 800.

madcows's picture

But, we can't remove it.  So, what do we do, Buy?  They can just as easily crash it to steal more wealth.  He who controls the money controls the kingdom.  They have enough to blow up Lehman, push oil and PM's around, and buy/blackmail CONgress.  What chance do you and I have?  None.

Vooter's picture

"What chance do you and I have? None."

Go back to Moscow in 1989 and say that...

venturen's picture

The only rumor to drop the market is the FED ran out of Ink for the printing press! Who is ready for $8 Gas?

El Hosel's picture

Bernanke says..... Better get in Boys and Girls, how many chances do you get to buy an all time high?

medium giraffe's picture

The Wealth Assassin strikes again...

Oldwood's picture

The last time the Dow was here....I actually made a decent living. Not so much now days. But on the plus side, I have a lot more time to bitch about things now.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"The last time the Dow was here...."

I was at the semi-annual Sales & Marketing 'Fest' at HQ, some place in Europe famous for quality fast cars.  I felt just awful at my US sales projections -- until I saw everyone else's.  The projections forecast a severe downturn -- months before it happened.  

We were like ducks:  Calm on the surface, but paddling like hell underneath.  We kept selling the sizzle, but could not deliver the steak.  Except for...

My one mega-deal that I resurrected from the dead, and whose commission my weasel-faced, ex-Stasi, cock-sucker boss snagged for himself, by actually firing me after I landed the deal, and just before I got paid.  He then got credit for the deal (revisionist history), the 6-figure commission+bonus, and his shit-box Trabant got swapped for an Audi A6.  I got praise and "deep regrets" in my references.  And, no, he wasn't Jewish.  He was a Kraut.  SchweinhundIt's every pig-dog for himself, was that lesson -- if you're not In The Club/Clan.  Shoulda shagged his hot & willing wife when I had the chance, but professionalism, ethics and her unshaven armpits deterred me.  If I had to do it again... "Du bist meine Bitch! and made him watch.

Q: How are the sales forecast for 12 months out?  Especially the ones at 60% and 90% confidence level.

Downtoolong's picture

All aboard Muppets. This train is heading off to the land of Oz. We’re going to follow Fidelity’s green line. It used to be a yellow brick road, but, that was before they removed all the gold bricks and paved it over with fiat currency. Don’t forget to close your eyes when we get to the scary parts, and hold your breath when we get to the hopium fields.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Lest we forget England, "The Land of Hope & Glory":  Empires are built on Hope & Glory.  They rise on persistent Hope, and fall on too much Glory.  So do stock market fortunes. 

The inflection point -- whether a slow or precipitous decline -- is easier to predict than to predict correctly.  Even here.  Plan and hedge accordingly.

DrDinkus's picture

ZH top link on drudge...

Baghdad-Bob121's picture

Thank you dear leader and his minions at the Fed!

tawdzilla's picture

Apparently, TPTB have decided that we are going full-on "Thelma and Louise."  I'd say buckle up, but it doesn't really matter anymore.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

the recovery is in!! BUY THE DIP guys! BUY IT ALL (LOL). Time to make sure everyone's got their retirement safe by dumping all-in for Treasuries, Greek Debt and HIGH YIELD CREDIT along with CDO-backed lines-of-credit for daily cost of living ease!

ebworthen's picture

"Look at these mawkets!  Gog-gog-mahgog-vog!"

"You just have to be in these mawkets! Hum-slurp-spittle-slather!"

"You'd be crazy not to be in equities!  Agog-mahgog-ah-gog!"

"Never been higher! (drool-chimp jump-hip thrust.  Hooh!  Hooh!  Bananas)

 

THESE MARKETS MEAN NOTHING YOU THINK THEY MEAN!

S&P, DOW, NASDAQ = SLAVERY METERS

Higher = more indentured debt servitude slavery

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

BUY MOAR NOW!

Uncle Warren said equities were still undervalued...SOOOO BUY MOAR!

Come on in my little Muppets, the water's fine. BUY MOAR!

You too can be like Jamie and Lloyd...They are richer than you....SOOOO BUY MOAR!

FBI says sequester cuts will hamper their "Wall St. investigations", BUY MOAR!

They'll never find out, before we all sell out,  soooo please BUY MOAR!

All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

The last time the Dow was here....there was no Bitcoin.

Where are all those mopes gonna go when the market starts sucking donkey eggs again?

stlouistrader's picture

IS THERE ANYWAY TO SHORT ZH.  IVE SAID IT FOR MONTHS....YOU CANT FIGHT THE TAPE...

"you have all of these negative factors that are out there but the market is telling us a diffrent story" - Paul Tudor Jones

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orly's picture

I believe there is a quintuple-triple-inverse ETF that trades on the pinks.  Should be just your speed.

Tick: FUZH.

:D

ebworthen's picture

You're shorting ZH with all that whitespace dumbshit.

Vooter's picture

"IVE SAID IT FOR MONTHS....YOU CANT FIGHT THE TAPE..."

You can put the tape in a gas chamber, though...

Crash Overide's picture

I can't believe people are still watching TV and playing in this market, mostly runaway algo's left...

The games been over for a while now.

Cash out, hold physical, trade that worthless paper in for something real while you can.

Karl von Bahnhof's picture

STFB

Short this fkin bubble