"Mission Accomplished"

Tyler Durden's picture

We could tell you all about the fact that high-yield credit did not play along with this rally today (and that the underlying cash market for corporate bonds has been weak for well over a week now); we could note that VIX did not take part in this surge today as the stops were run; we could point to the total lack of volume (NYSE or futures) confirming the move; we could highlight the fact that Treasury yields rose a de minimus 1.5bps on the day and while the USD slipped modestly on the day, it is only down 0.22% on the week and that Gold, Silver, and Oil are all unchanged on the week. But - all that matters, in this headline-driven algo-aided market is - The Dow hit all time highs - 'Mission Accomplished' Mr. Bernanke, well played - record stocks, record debt, record food stamps recipients.

 

Since The Dow last hit these levels, Gold and Silver are up 111%, the long-bond has gained 31% (in price alone), Oil is 9% higher in price and European stocks are 40% lower...


 

Since the Italian elections cast doubt of the Merkel-Draghi wager's success, Stocks remain the only asset class in full risk-on mode...

 

Today saw stocks surge up to the up-trend-channel, see some professional large block activity up there...

 

and then hang around volumelessly for the rest of the day... with a late day pull to VWAP

 

Credit markets look on and smile wryly - we've seen these Johnny-5's do this before - and we draw attention to the fact that the underlying cash value of the HYG ETF (the dark red line in the chart below) has been falling for around 10 days now - real men are selling risk-assets in the bond markets...

 

VIX didn't want to follow through on this today... as instead of conviction buying we saw concerned hedging...

 

Another day, another total disconnect from risk-asset reality for stocks... as correlation to reality fell away quickly

 

The late day sell-off no real surprise given the spurt - but hardly a positive high conviction signal for the new highs.

 

"More media attention than investor attention" summed it up perfectly

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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Say What Again's picture

OK -- Now I'm ready to start buying stocks again.

Unless MDB thinks I should do something else.

Divided States of America's picture

he meant refill stocks in artillery and rocket launchers.

Pladizow's picture

Q1: How different are the Dow 30 components from what they were at the previous high - and if much different, what would this difference make?

Q2 - What is the inflation adjusted high that must be reached using shadow stat #'s?

McMolotov's picture

Are you expecting the media to ask these questions? Their job isn't to tell the truth, it's to polish the turd of government. The sheep will hear "all time high" and that's it. Nothing about nominal versus real, nothing that would cast today's "achievement" in anything less than a shining light.

Increasingly, people will be asking themselves if they're doing something wrong in their lives. After all, the Tee Vee tells them everyday that things are better and life is swell. So why do their own lives seem to suck? Are they screw-ups, or have they been sold a lie? More and more people will come to the latter conclusion, and that's when things will become interesting.

Spastica Rex's picture

Do you have any recommendations on luxury cars? I've never owned a new car in my life, but I'm thinking I've been a little too conservative with my money. I don't need a job to qualify for an auto loan, do I? I'm sure I'll get a great new job, soon.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Just looking at the S&P, it has gained 128% since the lows put in as of March of 2009, compliments of...

....wait for it....

...the 1.5 trillion USD companies listed on the S&P 500 have expended in buying back their own shares of stock (why wouldn't they when they can float a 3 year corporate bond for 1%, and the execs that are massively compensated vis-a-vis share price can so easily boost that compensation by using such share buybacks?).

"In this run-up, nearly all the buying has come from companies repurchasing their own stock in an effort to boost its value. Companies in the S&P 500 have bought $1.5 trillion since the Great Recession began in December 2007."

See Dow closes at all-time [nominal] high, beating 2007 record

I'm trying to find similar ratios for the Fab 30 Dow and the Nasdaq, but I'd imagine it's roughly proportionate on a market cap ratio basis, as that excerpt suggests.

So, the Fed has printed trillions from thin air, distributed this money base to Primary Dealers and banking/financial entities at near zero cost basis to "invest" (aka speculate, aka gamble), while at the same time, the Federal Reserve has swapped Treasuries for shitty assets banks and financial firms wouldn't otherwise be able to unload (aka "a way above fair market value transaction"), and corporations that are publicly traded on the Dow, Nasdaq & S&P500 have used near free loans to buy back a record amount of their own shares.

And that's your rally in a nutshell, which will end in tears for nearly every person who has purchased or will purchase anything stock "market" related with their own money; aka same as it's always been, but this one is the a 10 trillion dollar bubble inflated in 4 years that will ultimately (once the extreme leverage being utilized, even by recent, historical standards, is accounted for) dwarf the 2000 bust and the 2008 bust.

With a depression-esque economic backdrop, where nearly 1/2 of new cars sold are based on loans provided to individuals with subprime credit ratings (car buyers taking out bigger loans, set new record; 44% of new car loans provided to subprime credit applicants in Q4), the Federal Government (via FHA) guaranteeing 90% of all new home mortgages (FHA inches closer and closer to bailout), an unemployment rate that would easily exceed 15% if the same metric to calculate it during the 1980s were being used today by the BLS (Alternative Measures of the Unemployment Rate), a trillion dollar Student Loan Bubble underway, consumer debt rising to record 2.77 trillion USD , real wages & benefits falling, and the government and quasi-governmental agencies working hand in hand with the Financial/Banking complex to allow these financial & banking entities to get new, even greater leeway in valuing (unicorn & rainbow methodology) their assets, while the BLS and other governmental and Federal Reserve-related (is the Fed governmental or not? It depends on who is asking and why, according to the Fed) also manipulating every statistical economic data point, from the rate of inflation to the rate of GDP growth (which would show contraction for quite a few quarters, including the last one, if it weren't for statistical manipulation)...

...all is well.

Mentaliusanything's picture

just the back of a beer coaster sum for Q2, using rule 72 and the real inflation rate( to be confirmed by the additional monies that need to be borrowed or created to cover the spend by the US) DOW should be 17348. 

Q1 ... does GM count as a loser and who was the replacement.

Peals to Pigs really. I drink Makers Mark.... A box of 12 is fair.

Shell Game's picture

Relax, Tim, he's buying these stocks... personally engraved with 'The Bernank'.

wee-weed up's picture

Mission Accomplished...

Ha! Can you imagine fat-assed Bernanke in a flight-suit? What a blivit!

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

watch that a##hole bernanke announce a snap retirement tomorrow

Say What Again's picture

We can only wish. 

I would buy everyone a round of drinks, if that were to happen!!!

Catflappo's picture

I'd rather imagine him in that than imagine him in the Missionary position.....

wee-weed up's picture

Who's on the bottom? Little Timmy?

Catflappo's picture

Be careful - "bottom" could mean two things there....

wee-weed up's picture

Bwarney Fwank please pick up the white courtesy phone in the lobby...

eatthebanksters's picture

Ben's going to need more helicopters...a lot more...a whole fucking army of helicopters

adr's picture

Volume Weighted Average Price

essentially used by the Algos to make sure trades are generating the greatest amount of commission for brokerages.

Basically total bullshit and another way for the computers to scam Mr. Retail fuck investor.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Meanwhile, in neufeudalist monarchy -aka paradisial socialist welfare state- Sweden, top general instills fear on the sheeple in order to achieve a fast-track entry into NATO. Using a Russian invasion wargame scenario, the plutocrat in charge of "defense" argues that Sweden would only last "a week".
Wasting no time, Russian TV blasts back and makes Sweden the world's laughing stock:

MUST WATCH:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TkwgVCdRMUs

And in order to appease the swedish sheeple who are victims of inflation, the Monarchs blurt out: "let them eat human-excrement-laced cake":

http://www.thelocal.se/46544/20130305/

Faecal bacteria found in Ikea chocolate cakes

Apparently, the cakes have also been shipped to China, in what constitutes a clear and blatant act of bio-warfare.

resurger's picture

that's even worse than horse meat! Ill never eat at Ikea ever again.

GolfHatesMe's picture

Its just a lower cut of horse meat, toward the back

TruthInSunshine's picture

Neither the Dow, the Spooz, the Naz or any other "stawk" index made new  REAL highs today. The 30 ticker Dow, which changes in composition approximately 20% every 5 to 8 years on average (so it's a new list of symbols as others, like old GM, bite the dust and take Grandma's "investment" with it), hit a new NOMINAL high today.

Bernanke must press on much more intensely with the conjuring of zero cost bais fiat and distribution to the Primary Dealers (where the Fed buys MBS & US Treasuries from Primary Dealers with a computer keystroke/journal entry on its balance sheet) if he wishes to get to anywhere near new REAL records on the Dow or any other stock "market" index.

Price this "market" in gasoline, heating oil, groceries, gold, meat (whether beef/horse/oily-anal-leakage-inducing-Escola), just about any commodity, silver, ammunition or WHATEVER, and these indexes are 40% to 80% (Naz) off their REAL highs.

Trillions upon trillions in printus maximus, and all Bernankus got the few "investors" left was a massively debased Dow "high" amidst an economic Depression.

Go, Bernanke, Go!

 

McMolotov's picture

We've skipped ludicrous speed, gone straight to plaid, and the next stop is paisley.

adr's picture

I would prefer houndstooth, you just can't wear paisley.

CClarity's picture

Me thinks hairshirts before long.

Say What Again's picture

I would like to see an "index" of ALL of the stocks that have been in the DOW 30 for the last 15 to 20 years. 

Its easy to make an index go up when you keep replacing the losers with winners.  Now add to this the fact that the DOW is a price weighted index and you have enough math to fool 80% of the viewing audience.

CClarity's picture

Eastman Kodak for starters

max2205's picture

Have you beat the Dow over the last 30 years. Didn't think so

Confundido's picture

WAIT TYLER! GOLD AT $1,575/OZ WAS ALSO PART OF THE MISSION,....AND IT WAS AS WELL ACCOMPLISHED! 

Ima anal sphincter's picture

Record number of traitors running the show. Man, I hope they get EXACTLY what's coming to them!!!

DblAjent's picture

Welcome to the TOP.

C U down below

EclecticParrot's picture

As someone who (unfortunately) stares at every  bar in the markets (in my case the Russell 2k), today was interesting.  While charts of 15 min + remained static after the opening ramp, the 2 and 5-min were pathetically skittish post-lunch, with basement-level ADX and sudden lengthy red bars .  Even more telling, this is the first up day in weeks we were unable to convincingly muster a post-2:00 ramp -- instead, we had a fake 1:45 run-up followed by a general collapse.  Not until 3:40, when most little guys were out, did the algos light a few whopper green candles back toward the highs.  Sorta like, at the end of a long wedding reception, when bride, groom and bartender have left, the DJ starts to crank "brown-eyed girl" for the 37th time and the dancers go through the motions, moving only their upper bodies.  In truth, it looks to me like institutional 'distribution' is happening, but this time without quite so many shorts to screw.  For the first time, it looks like the big boys may be playing with themselves, quite literally, rather than their imaginary friends …

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Reminded me a lot of late March/early April of 2012.

slaughterer's picture

E-Parrot, exactly what our Jonny-5 computers saw as well--even down to the "Brown_Eyed Girl" (i.e. VH "Dirty Movies") dancers going through the motions on too few shorts (i.e. drunk Middle-age white guys) to screw.  Ahh Bernanker, good days like these keep em'cumin.

Tsar Pointless's picture

"...correlation to reality fell away quickly"

Reality? I got your reality right here, pal!

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2013/03/04/heidi-klum-to-judge-america-got-talent-sexiest-female-reality-judge-ever/?asid=76002d02

It isn't enough that she clubbed a Seal and tells aspiring designers whether they are in or out (I suppose that could be another Seal reference - perhaps we wasn't "in" often enough). Now, she is going to judge the - ahem - "talent" of Americans.

Reality iz fun, bitchez!

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Didn't this happen before?

ekm's picture

It is simply a auction with one bidder only, the Government - Federal Reserve.

 

The bidder can assign any price he wants, 14254, 17000, 21000, any.

It's no longer a market. It is simply an object for adoration.

resurger's picture

your comment makes me believe Jim Cramer or Tom Lee when they say that the dow will hit 21K, that means the dow will hit 21K!

It's a club, we are not in it.

Ned Zeppelin's picture

Politico March 3, 2009:

President Barack Obama did his best imitation of a CNBC market analyst Tuesday, suggesting this week’s market swoon is a good time to buy stocks.

 

Responding to a question about the suffering Dow, Obama said, “What you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal, if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it.”

 

That’s tricky territory for a chief executive. Presidents usually steer clear of dispensing anything that sounds like an Oval Office stock tip, mindful that their very words can shake the global markets.

 

Not only that, but Obama’s team has repeatedly cautioned reporters against judging him by the ups and downs – and lately downs – of the stock market, scraping 12-year lows.

 

Then there’s the more practical issue — it’s famously difficult for investors to “call a bottom,” or predict the very moment at which a downturn reverses course and buying stocks is, in fact, a good idea.

Obama’s advice came a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 300 points, but it was down only slightly Tuesday, a 37-point dip to 6726.

 

“It sounds like he’s been listening to his good friend Warren Buffett,” said Shannon Zimmerman, a senior analyst and advisor at The Motley Fool, a financial services company based in Alexandria, VA. “He might be a value investor himself.”

Zimmerman largely agrees with Obama’s take on the market. “Unless you think Depression 2.0 is under way, if you are a long-term investor, the goal is to buy value on the cheap and now is a good time to do it.”

ekm's picture

A simple order from Obama will collapse it.
That's all it hangs on.

ebworthen's picture

If their goal was to take me from someone who believed in saving, the rule-of-law, and the future of the U.S.A. to someone who has no trust or allegiance to the country and wants to get the hell out I say "Mission Accomplished".

Shell Game's picture

+1  one hell of a true comment..

McMolotov's picture

+100. I had next to no faith in my government ten years ago. I have absolutely none anymore, and what little faith I had originally is gone forever, never to come back.

I honestly believe an enormous group of people coming of age right now, say 20-40 years of age, will spend the rest of their lives loathing the system and not trusting any form of authority. This is the stuff from which revolutions are born, and I welcome it. This country needs an enema, and the people who believe at this moment that their good fortune can never end will find themselves sorely mistaken.

Corruption of this magnitude always invites blowback.