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Non-Manufacturing ISM Has Highest Print Since February 2012, 8 Beats In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Not like a market test was needed, but in a time when bad news is great for stocks, we fully expected today's Non-Mfg ISM consensus beat to be great-er for the several hot potato passing algos still trading. Sure enough, the February non-manufacturing ISM just printed at 56.0, higher than the 55.0 expected, up from the 55.2 in February and the 8th beat of expectations in a row.

That the service sector output rose despite consensus it wouldn't due to tax hikes, and higher gas prices, indicates just how "valid" and accurate it truly is, but with every data point now geared to only one goal - to get everyone to play musical chairs while the music plays, does any data actually even matter? After all, an improving economy would mean a tapering QE, but Bernanke has now made it clear no matter what the actual real or fake state of the economy is, he will never stop the liquid(ity) morphine. Perhaps that is why the employment index actually dipped in February from 57.5 to 57.2 - supposedly this makes it "realistic."

The index components:

It is not that very surprising that there was not one negative comment among the respondents.

  • "Our business is beginning to turn up slightly." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • "Business seems to be improving; RFQ volume and orders also up." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • "Continuing to see slight uptrend in activity, primarily related to 1st quarter initiatives started." (Finance & Insurance)
  • "Construction market showing some positive signs." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • "The economy continues to slowly pick up, perhaps at an even faster pace than had been previously projected. New housing permits and business licenses are at a multiyear high, although still lower than pre-recession." (Public Administration)
  • "February bouncing back to forecast levels, which was 11 percent over 2012." (Wholesale Trade)
  • "Business is picking up; more projects to bid and things are improving." (Construction)

And so on. Now all we need a miss in this Friday's NFP data to make sure the bunchbowl is not taken away for a long, long time, and the Schrodinger economy - that which is getting both better and worse at the same time - continues .

 


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Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:18 | Link to Comment jeff314
jeff314's picture

no need for QE anymore all is good.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Western Electric process control rule no. 4 violation ... which would mean the economy is, I suppose, officially "out of control"?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

It’s just a good thing people don’t really need to be working or making things to make those indicators look good or we’d be in real trouble.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:35 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

There should be a make-work index at this point. Student loans are an unemployment sponge too. That's not even work but it is service sector GDP probably.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Gee, you don't think this "beat" was leaked do you? The gap was filled in yesterday right through the close and futures and the markets were up big this morning right through the "beat" announcement. LOL

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

At the end of all this my two Mercury dimes will pay my mortgage off.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

Does the number of views of zero hedge fall off dramatically on days like today?

Seriously...would be an interesting stat would it not?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

you're right-I'm off to Yahoo!Finance for some hard-hitting stories on why now is the best time to get in

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

lol!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

The only escape valve to reality here are defaults and they will come from European corporates. Of course by then, Americans will say that they need to become decoupled from Europe again....that were it not for Europe, things would be great in America....

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

They won! First they dumped paper gold at 8:30am and then with the 10:30am dump, they managed to get their initial $1,585/oz short profitable.

$1,585/oz then is the limit. Now, they need to break $1,570/oz decisively. I suspect they will do so post ECB announcements.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:35 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

they waited till 10:30am for the PM knockdown today. That was nice of them

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

10 o'clock roadblock - curfew,And I've got to throw away -Yes, I've got to throw away -A yes-a, but I've got to throw away

my little gold block

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"...but Bernanke has now made it clear no matter what the actual real or fake state of the economy is, he will never stop the liquid(ity) morphine."

Wait....I thought there was all this talk of removing the punch bowl forcing interest rates to rise which enables the great rotation out of bonds and into stocks.

Come on guys. Get your stories straight.

/sarc

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:40 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

no sarcasm needed

lets party like its 1999!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"They" meant 'pseudo-rotation' out of bonds, Cog.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

they say that after every 7 good years... 7 bad years follow....

we're at 6 official good years.... 2014....

 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

I guess they forgot to interview the JCP CEO, as well as, Walmart, Sears, Bonds & NoBells CEOs?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

...and que the "dead cat bounce" in raw materials. OMG!

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 11:52 | Link to Comment busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

"After all, an improving economy would mean a tapering QE, but Bernanke has now made it clear no matter what the actual real or fake state of the economy is, he will never stop the liquid(ity) morphine."

He can't stop even if he wanted to.  He is the Great Enabler, and he must continue to enable the govt to spend without pain of high interest and/or forcing people to actually pay more for the services demanded.

Plus, he can't stop while Japan, China, EU, etc, continue to print.  That would create the disaster of a rising $.

We are trapped in a race to fiat oblivion from which no way out can be seen.

 

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

I give up.  As one of the last bears standing I will admit defeat.  I am now a kool-aid drinker.

-The economy is doing better than ever.

-The middle class is stronger than ever.

-Higher gas prices are a non-issue.

-Higher home prices (that which got us into this mess) are good for the economy.

-Jim Cramer is the greatest stock guru alive.  Not to mention a great CEO.  Just look at the return for his share holders.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TST+Interactive#symbol=tst;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 As sarcastic as those statements are (except for the stock chart) with the markets only going higher and everyone being a Pollyanna I am actually starting to believe it.  We could have a -100k number on Friday and we would still go higher.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

How did we end up in a situation where 10% of the people are benefitting and the other 90% (including those yet to be even born) do the paying ?

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

just in from my morning walk and there still is the same number of empty homes, for 2 years now, some with for sale signs. the signs have themselves become tatered and is disrepair..but the sun is shining so stocks should be up.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 13:38 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

My new CA McMansion is up 130k in 5 months. QE good.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

ES should reach all-time historical highs by EOW.  

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:34 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Its a freaking Bernanke miracle. Hellolulu.

Tue, 03/05/2013 - 12:58 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Whatever it takes to purpetuate the com game!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!