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ADP Beats As Small Businesses Respond To Payroll Tax Cash Crunch By Hiring More
While the ADP private payroll monthly update (certainly before its wholesale revision every year or so to make it more accurate in retrospect) has traditionally been completely worthless in its predictive ability of the NFP number it precedes by two days, today it was the only source of US economic update, and as such everyone - certainly the handful of algos that trade stocks - at least pretended to pay attention when ADP reported the best private payrolls number since February 2012 (unrevised), printing at 198K, well above expectations of a decline to 170K from 192K in January. This was the fifth beat in a row, and the fifth beat since Moody's Mark Zandi starting making up the numbers in the ADP report. Additionally, the January number was revised higher to 215K. Why? Because defying all logic, it was small businesses which drove the surge in job creation in February, the month when gas prices soared to an all time high and when spending was curtailed due to impact of the payroll tax cut, at least according to such irrelevant indicators as Wal-Mart retail traffic, by creating some 77K jobs, more than either middle or large business. Realistic? Of course not. Does anyone care? Absolutely not: after all it simply allows the "head in the sand" trading style to continue indefinitely.
This joke of a release, which doesn't even provide the non-seasonally adjusted data, really requires no more commentary. Here are some of the pretty charts added in the release:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands)
Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands)
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (in thousands)
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry (in thousands)
And, keeping it real, here is the social network friendly infographic that ADP attaches to its monthly update. Cause they too have to keep it hip.
Source: ADP
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ADP annoucess partnership with moody's Zandi on Oct 24. The report has consistently beat expectations since then. Avg beat vs. consensus since 2010 ~45K. Since Survey changes to Moodys - +75K.
They're not even trying to make these appear truthful anymore (that is, if they ever did try in the first place). No release of non-adjusted numbers? Nonetheless, this is the sort of "news" that will justify a ~0.8-1% algoramp today.
They can pad this cage-lining material all they want; tax receipts don't lie.
There is only one direction and it is UP.
When fraud is institutionalized there is no use reading the daily data anymore.
Zandi is a us.gov puppet.
What are you guys talking about? The sequestration is working already. Smaller government means more private sector jobs. Imagine what would happen if government spending was cut 75%!
Each full time job is being replaced by two or three part time jobs in anticipation of ScumbamaCare.
Progress. Forward. Hail Victory!
Certainly true in our case.
Small golf course in Southeast. Hiring workers under 30 hours per week in order to fly under Obamacare requirements. Unemployment rates allow us to hopefully fill the positions at a wage we can afford far below what these workers are used. It's the WalMart model without the philosophy.
It's not progress for the workers, certainly. But it's a way we can make a go of the business. Adapt or go under.
It's easier now, as you don't need to worry about the data, just mark the dates on your calendar and remember to go long SPY calls at the close the day before.
if you make it up, they (algos) will buy.
Let's give more subsidies and tax credits to big business so they can ship more jobs to China!
There are lots of jobs being created: they are just temp jobs.
I wonder how many temp jobs get "rehypothecated" in this sense in these reports.
I.E: the Java Computer Engineer who gets 2 gigs from different recruitment agencies in the span of a month, being counted as "two jobs".
Small business hires - but often on contract, or ad hoc. They aren't real sustainable jobs....they may want to, but can't because of the fact that unlike the big boys, they can't buy lobbyists to subsidize costs to the government; they actually have to endure themselves to "the free market"....but many Western countries have this problem, these days.
But hey, DOW 15K!!!!!!!!!!!111111111
don't forget homeless on the streets in NYC... hand out for a quarter...american innovation (in counting jobs)
Exactly.
I'll add my reservations about double counting in the professional and trade realms for our move away from employment and towards independent contracting. In other words, I continue to perform work for my former employer, but now as an independent contractor, does my new entity Joe Six Pack, LLC get treated as a job start even though there is no net change in "jobs"?
Lots of family in Ohio doing the same thing. They've been hired back to the exact same jobs, for the most part, but on a contractual basis. What's funny is that they're all making more pay, but way less benefits. Good thing I come from a long line of frugal bastards, it's basically ingraned in the family and even the women are (mostly) on board, though sometimes they have their stupid moments and go on a tiny little shopping!!! spree.
+1.....good post shizz
Doesn't matter how much of a joke this "data" is when all the "market" seeks is confirmation of its (Fed liquidity) bias.
<To the moon Alice.>
That's the prudent thing to do in a situation such as this...if you want to run your business into the ground.
At some point the bears will have to realize that crushing tax hikes, soaring energy prices, totalitarian health care laws and moribund GDP growth might actually be a bullish sign...
fuck ADP...
lying ass propagandist whores...........................
All eCONomies are really local and will become more so as energy costs rise. The number of transactions I am seeing between locals is increasing, but most are tax free deals. Fuck you bernanke!
The economy has recovered and no wonder gold and silver are becoming more and more worthless. $1800 and $35 will never be seen again by any ZHer. What a pity!
would you like to wager your Mercedes on that my fuhrer?
It is as 2fer. For every one time full time job lost it creates 2 part time jobs.
The deterioration of the economy is accelerating. The government has very likely comandeered certain reporting agencies on the basis of national security and is faking the numbers. Don't think so? It is entirely possible.
Did you see the big DOW record headlines in the papers today? They are desparate. Even Buffett the other day grudgingly said stocks were the place to be but tried to keep some sense of integrity by talking about all this stiumulus/money printing and how it shouldn't go on. He looked really old in the interview and I do believe he has come to realize that this great American "great company" machine of his is standing on very weak foundations.
I don't believe any numbers. In fact, I believe any rosy numbers are being fudged. The details down in the grass just don't support these positive numbers.
The next big thing that is going to happen will involve a strike on Iran. Obama will need some diversion from this economic down spiral and what better way to do that. I look for something in the next 2 months as the economy is worsening by the week.
And you might not now wonder why Warren wants to buy Moar Newspapers....you guessed it. Herman Buffett news coming to you soon
I like to trot this little gem out now and then. On 05-23-2006 Bloomberg Businessweek ran an Internet story as follows. The page is no longer available.
"Intelligence Czar Can Waive SEC Rules
Now, the White House's top spymaster can cite national security to exempt businesses from reporting requirements.
President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations. Notice of the development came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye."
Basically when the President and/or his men decide it is in the interest of national security they can "excuse" public and private companies from the rules and the law. And this was back in 2006. Imagine what's going on now.
This was the actual link. I have the actual web page saved on another computer and backed up. I am sure this will eventually be scrubbed from the public record Orwell style.
+1, I remember that article. It was very enlightening to me at the time.
Yeah, the link is gone "We're sorry, The article you requested is no longer available"
The details are down in the grass, thank you, I'm going to remember that one.
I keep a couple web pages of unfudged economic numbers.
http://www.futurnamics.com/slfed.php
http://www.futurnamics.com/slfed2.php
Not lookin good.
propaganda fiat money economy, krugman is right, up is down, green shoots, those empty store fronts and homes are not really there the MSM is real your eyes are lying again.
Krugman is right? Right about what?
A "Wal-Mart greeter" for every storefront.
Long "flair".
They did away with greeters.
ADP And S&P
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/03/adp-and-s.html
The US Dollar is back up this morning.
The US Dollar should either fall hard (which means the Euro, JPY, GBP and/or CDN will climb sharply) and support these markets moving higher, or the US Dollar will put enough pressure on the indexes to trigger a fall.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dollar-daily-falls-marginally-euro-clim...
New jobs reports? Sure, whatever.
I wonder if anyone besides Slope of Hope is still breathing shorting this market, outside of miners which I am long in a big way with lots of red in my portfolio. Lets see what happens when the national retail price of gasoline is $4.01. Hmmmm!
You know where there should be a shitload of jobs? At the ammo manufacturers!
Fucking cunts can't keep shit in stock... Where would retail spending be without gas, guns, and ammo?! A firearm costs as much as a large appliance. And I don't think people bought multiple refrigerators in the last few months, but the FA cases are %^&# EMPTY..
ANYTHING and EVERYTHING is being whipped up to a frenzy to get people to spend money. What's next? Waterfowl or hogs?
There is no way the middle class is going to be recapitalized through normal channels (aka work). That's why the U.S. is utterly fucked. New market highs? Bring it on - it's already been braughten, and it's the SSDD for the last +5 years.
This is a fucking depression (Brady Bunch style).
SWHC earnings up 300%, backlog more than 1 year, and they are adding production as fast as they can.
Thanks President Drama!
Obviously things are good and getting better. They would tell us if there was anything to worry about, right? Granted, my small business is sucking wind right now, but I'm pretty sure, from what I take of reader's comments, that it is only due to my negligence, poor management and just retribution for my years of employee abuse, that as a boomer, I have surely imposed on my serfs. Your humble servant to the collective,
Well you didn't build that air sucking.
Finding biz a little choppy overall but the high margin 1% market very buoyant.
Same here Oldwood....so at least do not feel alone...but everyday is nothing but a grind.
After being forced to cut labor prices 5 years ago, to compete against those taking shortcuts, still cannot get any traction to get prices back up. Would be nice if we could give raises to get pay at least heading back up, but still cannot get enough work to keep everyone busy.
If you ain't cheatin', you ain't competin'!
I don't believe it.
Obamacare = fewer workers over 30 hours, more under 30 hours. 4 part time worker at 30 hours each versus 3 full time at 40 hour.
Exactly.
My Son was laid off in January, place of 50 employees shut down overnight.
He has only been able to find a burger flipping job, and they only want him at the peak weekend times, 15-20 hours a week total. He says it is the same situation with his friends at their jobs.
And every year, every quarter we have more and more youngin's coming out of high school and college into this job market where no business really wants to hire anyone full time. At least not on payroll full time.
Just..not..good!
29 hours just to be on the safe side. Management is monitoring the timesheets and your ass is being hoofed out the door at 29 and a half. They'll soon be watching low-totem-pole employees clock in/out too. Must be nice having your boss look over your shoulder because, clearly, no one can be trusted. At that point, why have employees at all?
Why not just tack a zero or two on the number and then they can take the rest of the year off?
pods
I would love to see ADP report on total hours paid. They have the data but I don't think they would disclose those miserable results.
Trim tabs and the IRS have those numbers.
It may have beaten estimates, but it did not beat the numbers from Feb 2012 and Feb 2011.
If we had an improving jobs market, those are the numbers Feb 2013 would have beaten.
SPX daily shows megaphone wedge so big move awaits.
It should overule DXY bias.
trader618
Maybe 1.98 jobs were created.
Does anyone here know anyone that's started a new job or gotten a raise recently? These numbers are a s phony as a Federal Reserve note.