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Global Risk Appetite Signals 'Risk-Off' Process Starting

Tyler Durden's picture


Despite the improvements in equity markets, Credit Suisse's global risk appetite indices are flashing warning signals. Their equity risk model points to weakness (most notably - Emerging Market underperformance relative to Developed Markets) and their credit risk appetite model maintains its 'sell' signal (which is what we are seeing in the broad credit markets). Finally, their bond risk model suggests a confirming signal getting long US duration.




Charts: Credit Suisse


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Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:18 | Link to Comment kornholio
kornholio's picture

just BTFD

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:16 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

There is all kinds of signals indicating a market top, but who is paying attention.

Most people have to learn the hard way. I have urged my friends to sell their stocks

and buy physical gold and silver, but they listen to MSN and call me a wacko. I guess

I'm powerless to help them. There are a few who get it because they know mathmatics

and history. God help the rest.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 01:44 | Link to Comment slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Gold and Silver are not going to do much better. The bubble pop will set off deflation like you have never imagined evn in the face of a weak trade dollar. All the monies printed have only gone to deleveraging and very little has actually been accomplished with it. Basically with every dollar they print they remove 90 cents of leverage. Add in the multiplier that is eliminated and they are actually starving the economy of money through the action of printing it.


Thu, 03/07/2013 - 03:26 | Link to Comment Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

It's all bullshit,

The thieves in charge have decided Dow 20,000.

Got your hat yet?


Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:31 | Link to Comment zhandax
zhandax's picture

just BTFD

Which FD?  DC is lousy with them.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Risk.....pffft....the Bernank has eliminated risk from the equation. The direction is upwards until they decide to pull the rug out from under everything.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

But,   but,    they said DOW 15000 !!!!!


Thu, 03/07/2013 - 01:54 | Link to Comment Too Late To Cancel
Too Late To Cancel's picture

Oh, but my auguries see geat big smelly flocks of very dark swans flying in, looking for a place to roost


Thu, 03/07/2013 - 07:28 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

And they're flesh-eating swans.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:02 | Link to Comment mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Exactly. There is no such thing as risk off anymore. Risk off is when the FED does risk off. Until that point it is "to the moon" in the stock market.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment random shots
random shots's picture

Yawn...Credit Suisse is trying to lighten its US debt inventory. 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:34 | Link to Comment madridisburning
madridisburning's picture

When will you guys admit that you know NOTHING. You allow your cheerleading to get ahead of forecasting. I, too, believe that that there will be a big crash at some point, but neither you nor I will know when it comes. So, stop pretending that you do. I wonder why anyone other than the mindless zombies pay any attention to you anymore. You could have been useful, but WITHOUT the cheerleading to doomsday.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:43 | Link to Comment infinity8
infinity8's picture

What you call cheerleading, I call reporting. I didn't read anything that claimed to predict the "when". If TSHTF before you think it will and you're not prepared, you have noone to blame but yourself.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment presk_eel_pundit
presk_eel_pundit's picture

Who is noone? Was he the guy in Herman's Hermits?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:52 | Link to Comment infinity8
infinity8's picture

No, he's Oops and My Fat Fingers.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"You could have been useful, but WITHOUT the cheerleading to doomsday."

You mean seeing the bailout of the institutions that caused the crisis, the trashing of the rule-of-law, the theft of savings and property, the crushing of 10+ years of weekly paycheck investments, and $7+ TRILLION dollars of future debt placed on the backs of our progeny for the sake of mammon lusting human leeches on Wall Street does not make you want to cheerlead doomsday for the markets and the Ponzi?

What use are you serving by not cheerleading an end to this charade?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:49 | Link to Comment smart girl
smart girl's picture

I for one appreciate the article.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:53 | Link to Comment markettime
markettime's picture

The market will go down when THEY want it to go down. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:16 | Link to Comment ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Shutup and buy the fucking stock. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:25 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

guess they didn't get the btfd memo

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I'm sorry, bitchez, but I've been following this shit since the summer of 2005, when I read articles portending of the coming housing bust.

They were right. Everybody I talked to called me crazy. They were wrong.

Now, the game has changed. Sure, 2007-08 came, but it went. It was left in the dust of Chairman Ben and his digidollar creation binge.

Is anything fixed? Yes - if you count equity and bond markets here in The States.

Ask the sheeple, and they'll only be able to spout what they hear or read in the MSM. "Markets reach/near new highs. Exaltation ensues."

Was the "market" overbought at S&P 700? At 800? At 900? At 1000? At 1100? At 1200? At 1300? At 1400? At 1500?

The Fed is now the buyer of last resort. Until the POMOs end, there will be no end.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:38 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Fixed? Maybe in the sense that one "fixes" a pet.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:42 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Your down votes only enhance my credibility.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Dammit!  I wanted to downvote.  What do I do now?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:28 | Link to Comment Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

So what you're saying is, its "dumb-money" vacuum time?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 03:37 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Oh good, can't wait for DOW 4,000.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:28 | Link to Comment dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

The Law of unintended Consequences-they CAN make mistakes and the markets MAY fall OUT OF THEIR CONTROL....something unseen....unexpected... just a thought

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:39 | Link to Comment Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Looks like a STACK UP signal to me... 

just like all other signals from the past 6 years. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:14 | Link to Comment dampiresquib
dampiresquib's picture

Ha these guys have called 25 out of the last 2 tops... so have I.

Zero hedge wiki:     where bears come to die. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:14 | Link to Comment dampiresquib
dampiresquib's picture

Ha these guys have called 25 out of the last 2 tops... so have I.

Zero hedge wiki:     where bears come to die. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:34 | Link to Comment Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

Yeah, but what's going to trigger it?

The SPX chart still looks nice. Some very, very tentative signs of recovery. Massive liquidity boost. Sure, it will end in tears. But markets can remain irrational for longer that we can remain solvent. And in the long term we are all dead.

I'm sorry to say this Tyler, because you're a great analyst & I look at your site every day without fail, but you've been a wonderful contrarian indicator for the last few years...

I am long European financials.

But please keep all the good work flowing. In the end you'll be right & if I haven't been ruined after the crash I'll buy you a beer wherever you live.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 08:00 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

As often happens in life, both sides of the above argument have merit, though this must be qualified as follows:  modest risk-off (i.e., profit-taking from a 3-month short squeeze) IS happening as the primary dealers litter the daily tape with sawtooth mid-morning declines and sudden red candles at VWAP after igniting fake mini-spurts.  No question, the late-day rallies have been muted of late until 3:52 when they decide where they want the headlines to read.  

However, I believe the PDs are now selling to institutional managers, who are getting modest 401(k) re-allocations and modest investment committee allocations to stocks, and are buying mid-day dips.  So, even absent any evidence of individual investor fund flows (in fact we're seeing the opposite), even modest % increases to equities by large instututional investment committees and 401k matches is enough to fuel this muted, slow melt-up rally.  As these decisions are made in November and typically executed in Q1, I believe an interim top is near, but likely not fully evident until later in April or early May.  Even so, professionals don't short longer-term in anticipation of declines, but during the first quarter of the move, and I'm afraid we're not there yet ...

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