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Global Risk Appetite Signals 'Risk-Off' Process Starting

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the improvements in equity markets, Credit Suisse's global risk appetite indices are flashing warning signals. Their equity risk model points to weakness (most notably - Emerging Market underperformance relative to Developed Markets) and their credit risk appetite model maintains its 'sell' signal (which is what we are seeing in the broad credit markets). Finally, their bond risk model suggests a confirming signal getting long US duration.

 

 

 

Charts: Credit Suisse

 

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Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:18 | 3307506 kornholio
kornholio's picture

just BTFD

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:16 | 3307659 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

There is all kinds of signals indicating a market top, but who is paying attention.

Most people have to learn the hard way. I have urged my friends to sell their stocks

and buy physical gold and silver, but they listen to MSN and call me a wacko. I guess

I'm powerless to help them. There are a few who get it because they know mathmatics

and history. God help the rest.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 01:44 | 3307845 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Gold and Silver are not going to do much better. The bubble pop will set off deflation like you have never imagined evn in the face of a weak trade dollar. All the monies printed have only gone to deleveraging and very little has actually been accomplished with it. Basically with every dollar they print they remove 90 cents of leverage. Add in the multiplier that is eliminated and they are actually starving the economy of money through the action of printing it.

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 03:26 | 3307947 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

It's all bullshit,

The thieves in charge have decided Dow 20,000.

Got your hat yet?

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:31 | 3308017 zhandax
zhandax's picture

just BTFD

Which FD?  DC is lousy with them.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:24 | 3307522 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Risk.....pffft....the Bernank has eliminated risk from the equation. The direction is upwards until they decide to pull the rug out from under everything.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:31 | 3307539 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

But,   but,    they said DOW 15000 !!!!!

GOD DAMMIT!!!!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 01:54 | 3307855 Too Late To Cancel
Too Late To Cancel's picture

Oh, but my auguries see geat big smelly flocks of very dark swans flying in, looking for a place to roost

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 07:28 | 3308119 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

And they're flesh-eating swans.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:02 | 3307969 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Exactly. There is no such thing as risk off anymore. Risk off is when the FED does risk off. Until that point it is "to the moon" in the stock market.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:25 | 3307524 random shots
random shots's picture

Yawn...Credit Suisse is trying to lighten its US debt inventory. 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:34 | 3307547 madridisburning
madridisburning's picture

When will you guys admit that you know NOTHING. You allow your cheerleading to get ahead of forecasting. I, too, believe that that there will be a big crash at some point, but neither you nor I will know when it comes. So, stop pretending that you do. I wonder why anyone other than the mindless zombies pay any attention to you anymore. You could have been useful, but WITHOUT the cheerleading to doomsday.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:43 | 3307581 infinity8
infinity8's picture

What you call cheerleading, I call reporting. I didn't read anything that claimed to predict the "when". If TSHTF before you think it will and you're not prepared, you have noone to blame but yourself.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:33 | 3307700 presk_eel_pundit
presk_eel_pundit's picture

Who is noone? Was he the guy in Herman's Hermits?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:52 | 3307745 infinity8
infinity8's picture

No, he's Oops and My Fat Fingers.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:46 | 3307990 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"You could have been useful, but WITHOUT the cheerleading to doomsday."

You mean seeing the bailout of the institutions that caused the crisis, the trashing of the rule-of-law, the theft of savings and property, the crushing of 10+ years of weekly paycheck investments, and $7+ TRILLION dollars of future debt placed on the backs of our progeny for the sake of mammon lusting human leeches on Wall Street does not make you want to cheerlead doomsday for the markets and the Ponzi?

What use are you serving by not cheerleading an end to this charade?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 23:49 | 3307595 smart girl
smart girl's picture

I for one appreciate the article.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:53 | 3307750 markettime
markettime's picture

The market will go down when THEY want it to go down. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:16 | 3307658 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Shutup and buy the fucking stock. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:25 | 3307678 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

guess they didn't get the btfd memo

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:25 | 3307682 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I'm sorry, bitchez, but I've been following this shit since the summer of 2005, when I read articles portending of the coming housing bust.

They were right. Everybody I talked to called me crazy. They were wrong.

Now, the game has changed. Sure, 2007-08 came, but it went. It was left in the dust of Chairman Ben and his digidollar creation binge.

Is anything fixed? Yes - if you count equity and bond markets here in The States.

Ask the sheeple, and they'll only be able to spout what they hear or read in the MSM. "Markets reach/near new highs. Exaltation ensues."

Was the "market" overbought at S&P 700? At 800? At 900? At 1000? At 1100? At 1200? At 1300? At 1400? At 1500?

The Fed is now the buyer of last resort. Until the POMOs end, there will be no end.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:38 | 3307716 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Fixed? Maybe in the sense that one "fixes" a pet.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:42 | 3307721 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Your down votes only enhance my credibility.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 09:23 | 3308290 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Dammit!  I wanted to downvote.  What do I do now?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 00:28 | 3307687 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

So what you're saying is, its "dumb-money" vacuum time?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 03:37 | 3307957 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Oh good, can't wait for DOW 4,000.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:28 | 3307980 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

The Law of unintended Consequences-they CAN make mistakes and the markets MAY fall OUT OF THEIR CONTROL....something unseen....unexpected... just a thought

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 04:39 | 3307991 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Looks like a STACK UP signal to me... 

just like all other signals from the past 6 years. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:14 | 3308015 dampiresquib
dampiresquib's picture

Ha these guys have called 25 out of the last 2 tops... so have I.

Zero hedge wiki:     where bears come to die. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:14 | 3308016 dampiresquib
dampiresquib's picture

Ha these guys have called 25 out of the last 2 tops... so have I.

Zero hedge wiki:     where bears come to die. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 05:34 | 3308021 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

Yeah, but what's going to trigger it?

The SPX chart still looks nice. Some very, very tentative signs of recovery. Massive liquidity boost. Sure, it will end in tears. But markets can remain irrational for longer that we can remain solvent. And in the long term we are all dead.

I'm sorry to say this Tyler, because you're a great analyst & I look at your site every day without fail, but you've been a wonderful contrarian indicator for the last few years...

I am long European financials.

But please keep all the good work flowing. In the end you'll be right & if I haven't been ruined after the crash I'll buy you a beer wherever you live.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 08:00 | 3308153 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

As often happens in life, both sides of the above argument have merit, though this must be qualified as follows:  modest risk-off (i.e., profit-taking from a 3-month short squeeze) IS happening as the primary dealers litter the daily tape with sawtooth mid-morning declines and sudden red candles at VWAP after igniting fake mini-spurts.  No question, the late-day rallies have been muted of late until 3:52 when they decide where they want the headlines to read.  

However, I believe the PDs are now selling to institutional managers, who are getting modest 401(k) re-allocations and modest investment committee allocations to stocks, and are buying mid-day dips.  So, even absent any evidence of individual investor fund flows (in fact we're seeing the opposite), even modest % increases to equities by large instututional investment committees and 401k matches is enough to fuel this muted, slow melt-up rally.  As these decisions are made in November and typically executed in Q1, I believe an interim top is near, but likely not fully evident until later in April or early May.  Even so, professionals don't short longer-term in anticipation of declines, but during the first quarter of the move, and I'm afraid we're not there yet ...

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