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Guest Post: This Time Is Different 2013 Edition

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

A small note on the frankly hilarious news that the Dow Jones Industrial Average smashed through to all-time-highs.

First of all, while stock prices are soaring household income and household confidence are slumping to all-time lows. Employment remains depressed, energy remains expensive, housing remains depressed, wages and salaries as a percentage of GDP keep falling, and the economy remains in a deleveraging cycle. Essentially, these are not the conditions for strong organic business growth, for a sustainable boom. We’re going through a structural economic adjustment, and suffering the consequences of a huge 40-year debt-fuelled boom. While the fundamentals remain weak, it can only be expected that equity markets should remain weak. But that is patently not what has happened.

In fact, it has been engineered that way. Bernanke has been explicitly targeting equities, hoping to trigger a beneficent spiral that he calls “the wealth effect” - stock prices go up, people feel richer and spend, and the economy recovers. But with fundamentals still depressed, this boom cannot be sustained.

There are several popular memes doing the rounds to suggest, of course, that this time is different and that the boom times are here to stay, including the utterly hilarious notion that the Dow Jones is now a “safe haven”. They are all variations on one theme - that Bernanke is supporting the recovery, and will do whatever it takes to continue to support it. Markets seem to be taking this as a sign that the recovery is real and here to stay. But this is obviously false, and it is this delusion that - as Hyman Minsky clearly explained last century - is so dangerous.

There are many events and eventualities under which throwing more money at the market will make no difference. Central banks cannot reverse a war, or a negative trade shock, or a negative production shock, or a negative energy shock simply by throwing money at it. And there are severe limits to their power to counteract financial contractions outside their jurisdiction (although in all fairness the Federal Reserve has expanded these limits in extending liquidity lines to foreign banks). Sooner or later the engineered recovery will be broken by an event outside the control of central bankers and politicians. In creating a false stability, the Federal Reserve has actually destabilised the economy, by distorting investors’ perceptions.

But, of course, some analysts think that this time really is different. Here’s a chart from Goldman showing the S&P500 by sectoral composition:

screen shot 2013-03-06 at 4.50.16 am

The implication here is clear - with no obvious sectoral bulge like that of the late 1970s, the tech bubble, and the financial bubble - there is no bubble. But what if the bubble is spread evenly over multiple sectors? After all, the Federal Reserve has been reinflating Wall Street in general rather than any one sector in particular.

Wall Street leverage is, unsurprisingly, approaching 2007 levels:


Is this the final blowout top? I’m not sure. But I would be shocked to see this bubble live beyond 2013, or 2014 at the latest. I don’t know which straw will break the illusion. Middle eastern war? Hostility between China and Japan? North Korea? Chinese real estate and subprime meltdown? Student debt? Eurozone? Natural disasters? Who knows...

The wider implications may not be as bad as 2008. The debt bubble has already burst, and the deleveraging cycle has already begun. Total debt is slowly shrinking. It is plausible that we will only see a steep correction in stocks, rather than some kind of wider economic calamity. On the other hand, it is also plausible that this bursting bubble may herald a deeper, darker new phase of the depression.

With every day that the DJIA climbs to new all-time highs, more suckers will be drawn into the market. But it won’t last. Insiders have already gone aggressively bearish. This time isn’t different.



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Wed, 03/06/2013 - 10:55 | 3304605 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It is different....we no longer need Congressional approval to bail out anything we want.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:00 | 3304623 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Where are Al Queda when you want them! 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:02 | 3304630 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Ignore the chart at your own peril. If a market is making all time highs, that is telling you something important. Do you think the investors and traders who are long stocks and raking in huge profits give a damn about the 'fundamentals'? No - of course not. If you want to make money, trade the chart. Simple as that.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:07 | 3304645 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

So by stating investors dont care about fundamentals, you just admited there are no fundamentals in this "rally" yet your all in. haha, classic. Dont buy the fundamentals, buy the propaganda

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:09 | 3304661 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The fundamentals don't matter. The chart is telling you to buy, so you should be long. There's no other way to look at it. When the chart starts to show signs of weakness, then only then will I consider reducing my position.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:10 | 3304668 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

It’s all about trading on the illusion. You and “Dr.” Paul Krugman are two peas in a pod

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:19 | 3304705 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

  "Where are Al Queda when you want them!"


Didn't you hear the weather report?... Washington is CLOSED for a snow day... They're making snow angels & trying to find a magicians hat for Frosty...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:26 | 3304742 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

The Fed is getting ready to start raising rates. Wall Street and Feds are  compensating for that by irrationally exhuberating the stock market so that the indices do not fall by too much to shock the system and the zoloft induced fantasy.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:32 | 3304774 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I guess that's why they call you 'King of Simpletons'...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:39 | 3304809 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

they can't raise rates because of too much government debt okay.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:56 | 3304884 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

no doubt their 'solution' to this minor problem is to issue even more debt

wasn't there some Fed stooge who recently advoted the Fed buy ALL the treasuries; if they were to do so, the interest payments would essentially cover all the US government expenses

that it would be akin to the Fed owning the US is probably "just a coincidence"

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 14:31 | 3305447 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

This.  There is a 0.000% chance the Fed will raise rates, either directly (by moving fed funds rate) or indirectly (by slowing or stopping the unfuckingbelievable gorging on UST's).  As mentioned, the goal is for the Fed to literally own the United States, both by puchasing the public corporation (USA Gov) and by buying up any remaining privately held land assets (mortgage backed securities is one aspect, "record low interest rates" that private equity uses for their REO-to-rent scheme, etc.)

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:11 | 3304672 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

When do I take profits?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:13 | 3304680 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



You have time....just make sure you have a stop loss in place over the weekend.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:56 | 3304885 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

This is how it will work.

1. Shit hits fan and market drops.

2. Circuit breakers kick in and market shuts down.

3. Fed, TBTF, and HFTs resequence orders in queue and place more while market is off.

4. Switch is flipped back on.

5. You lose!

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 14:33 | 3305455 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Stop losses are great when you actually have a bid.  

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 14:35 | 3305467 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They are even better when the bid that takes your "stop" out isn't 30% less than your basis.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:18 | 3304699 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

When the chart starts showing weakness. Don't be in a hurry to sell though. If the chart is making new all-time highs, you should sit tight and let your profits run. My first price target is 2000 (using linear projection).

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:20 | 3304718 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Just be quicker than the fat finger.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:57 | 3304897 markettime
markettime's picture

The markets are not the markets anymore. As long as the Fed is pumping massive amounts of money into the system the prop trading banks can keep pushing the markets higher. There is very little volume moving in the exchanges, this makes it even easier to push them up. It won't stop until Bernanke pulls the QE plug. The problem is he cannot pull the plug without destroying the economy. He will continue to use QE until it is no longer effective.The big question is what will make it no longer effective? 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:01 | 3305165 tbone654
tbone654's picture

There are 3 kinds of risk models for markets...  Investor (buy and hold = long term), speculator (buy and sell = short to medium term) and Gambler (guesswork)...

At various times the difference between investor and speculator can be seen through a results model...  If markets are trending, investors can benefit from the long run...  If markets are trading, speculators can benefit from the chop...  some markets "trend" more than others...  This is very simplistic, but some markets are NOT good for investors, and when that happens, investors think something fundamental has changed...  markets are always the same...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:25 | 3304741 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Linear progression tells me NIKKEI 80,000

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:31 | 3304767 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Insiders disagree at a ratio of 9:1...are you claiming to know more about their businesses than they do?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:44 | 3304834 Galactic Superwave
Galactic Superwave's picture

MDB, how do you define weakness? How weak?

1) would you sell the morning the Dow gaps down 1000 because of war between N. Korea/S.Korea, China/Japan, or <pick you favorites here>?

2) would you sell the day a massive earthquake hits the west coast and the Dow plummets 800?

3) would you sell if the dollar suddenly went into freefall with the market down 10% in one day or the OTC derivative markets have a big player go belly up?

The point is everyone thinks they are going to recognize the "sell signal" and be out the door before everyone else.

Do you set your stops at a trailing 7%. The market could easily gap over your stop and wipe out your gains for the last 6 months.

When you see the CNBS morons (Cramer so giddy about the markets they are about to have an orgasm, you know the end game is in play.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:52 | 3304873 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Exactly how isn't what you describe a pyramid scheme?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 14:34 | 3305464 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Well done on the Biryani's ruler reference good sir.  

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 17:33 | 3306204 Blano
Blano's picture

How'd that work out the last time it was this high?


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:22 | 3304707 razorthin
razorthin's picture

You are funny.

I don't know any trader or investor worth his salt who would buy into new highs when momentum indicators are this overstretched.  All new highs mean at this point, is that there is a good chance any pullback will be limited, and you will be presented with a much better entry point.  Sell your paper now if you know what is good for you.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:05 | 3304918 tbone654
tbone654's picture

Read the tape...  Buyers are higher, not lower...  you have to pump them up to dump them...  You can't sell on the way down...  It sounds like you don't know that there is no such thing as over bot or over sold...  I'm a bear, but I read the tape, and so I have to be long when the markets are making new highs...

If you want to sell them, you have to buy more first... And EVERY trader worth his salt knows that...

Read about the "theory of runs"...  and don't be a dope...  martingale's don't work, and that's what you are doing...  You can go to the crap table and "don't pass" 20 straight times...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:54 | 3305135 tbone654
tbone654's picture

People don't seem to grasp easily the fundamentals of stock trading. I have often said that to buy on a rising market is the most comfortable way of buying stocks. Now, the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices, but to buy or sell at the right time. When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don't buy long stock on a scale down, I buy on a scale up. - Jesse Livermore

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:15 | 3305209 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Nice quote from Livermore, but let's not forget he ended up bankrupt with a self-implanted bullet in his brain in a public bathroom stall.

The point is that fundamentals are not supporting this rally, so the smart thing to do is to be out. 


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 14:38 | 3305483 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"And EVERY trader worth his salt knows that"

People still trade stocks?  Why?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:52 | 3305297 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Funny, as usual.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:11 | 3304669 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

His avatar means "Unit of Silver".


"Dollar" means silver coin.


Get it?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:21 | 3304724 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture




In Bohemia, they started to mint the first JOAGHIMTHALER in the beginning of the 16th century which had the weight of the current silver dollars.

In Holland, you had the LEEUWENDAALDER in the 16th century and the weight remained the same

Later on it was renamed RIJKSDAALDER also with the same weight

and later on when the English took over some dutch colonies in Asia, they wanted to keep the local currency but couldn't really peak it right so the called it RIX DOLLAR

than it turned into DOLLAR in the American colonies and so on and so on :)

I know because I collect every single version of those. I recently bought a Joaghimthaler for only 200 euro, worth about 1600 euro! Cool or what?!

Only on Ebay :) where people only buy the coins the know about :)

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:33 | 3304782 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

That was you?! Thanks, buddy!

(so much easier to counterfeit coins when noone knows what they really look like)

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:39 | 3304811 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

not to me buddy, not to me  :)

when in doubt, put in a paypal claim :)


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:12 | 3304675 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Banana republic 101.   Zimbabwe had soaring markets when they hyper-printed too.  Charts don't mean shit.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:23 | 3304727 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Thank you! I keep looking at these guys with their charts always trying to explain why something happened in the past, but always dead wrong about the future. That doesn't stop them from keeping on predicting now, does it?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:51 | 3304864 akarc
akarc's picture

"Charts don't mean shit."

Then why to people use them? ME thinks it depends on how one interprets them. Watching charts (the dow) yesterday was a perfect illustration of insanity.  I see them as confirmation that history repeats it self and that this time is not different. The rules of gravity have not changed

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 15:43 | 3304649 Badabing
Badabing's picture

"If you want to make money, trade the chart. Simple as that."

If you want to make real money dont.

DJ= -50%gold @6 years!!!!


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:08 | 3304658 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"If a market is making all time highs, that is telling you something important."

Yes, that the FED is spending $118 Million per hour to enslave our children and grandchildren.

And these "profits" I could be making; do I watch them on a piece of paper?  Do I get a check in the mail or do I have to leave them in the casino and feel richer because I'll get taxed out the ass if I try to get some out.  Is that profit or perception?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:14 | 3304683 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

What are you talking about? If your account is up, that's real wealth. I could cash in my S&P futures now for a hefty profit,. But that would be silly when the chart is still making all time highs.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:28 | 3304752 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Tell it to the people who had their 401k decimated in 2008, shitwit.

We sincerely hope you're talking your book here and laugh at the nominal "gains" from your flashpaper.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:38 | 3304804 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

His sarcasm is plain to see...

You've been trolled

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:50 | 3304862 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It was trolling when he took the real MDB's place months ago.

Now he's just my favorite pinata.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:38 | 3304801 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If the new highs in the market are "telling you something" I have to ask what the market was telling you when the S&P bottomed out at 667 in March of '09?  Sell like mad?

Anyone tells you they know what the market is "telling them" by looking at a chart should be put in an asylum for their safety and the safety of others. 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:31 | 3305040 tbone654
tbone654's picture

Anyone tells you they know what the market is "telling them" by looking at a chart should be put in an asylum for their safety and the safety of others. 

fear of what you don't know?  don't you need to know what others are thinking?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:22 | 3304999 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I see that _ at the end of your monker.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:10 | 3304665 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Hookers are more entertaining than stocks.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:26 | 3304739 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Yes, but you can't get syphilis from the stock market.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:26 | 3304745 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Already have it.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:16 | 3304694 clones2
clones2's picture

Jesus H MDB!!!!  Probably the most intelligent comment you have ever made on Zero Hedge!  What you say is actually true... :-)

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:19 | 3304714 Confundido
Confundido's picture

MDB, your argument assumes you know when to leave....that you can call the top....maybe you do. I don't. That's why my bonus is below a million, I guess, but that's also why I have survived multiple crisis since the '80s....

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:22 | 3304726 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

The wealth effect is for bankers only. 

Declining incomes and ever increasing DOW value?  Makes sense to me.  Values increase because incomes decrease.  Hurry call those appraiser whores Cushman or CB - I'm refying everything - my values are going up, up, up because my commercial rents are going down, down, down. 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:52 | 3305128 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The Charts look like a freak show, no breadth, no volume except when it sells off, no corrections. Its RIGGED, it flys in the face of everything The US is supposed to stand for, how the fuck can anybody in their right mind buy that?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:20 | 3304712 Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

@ Rubicon: hahaha, you answered your own question

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:07 | 3304652 HD
HD's picture

Can i haz bailout?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:38 | 3305259 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The chambers of Congress are stages of the theatre. The stock market is simply a tool to launder counterfeit money.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 15:50 | 3305783 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

I have to agree with GetZeeGold here. Just by surveying the scene, this time is different. If the stock market drops a couple percentage, the FED (and other CBs) will just ramp up the printing. Even with diminishing returns on the fiat injections, the FED (and other CBs of the world) will just go all in with 2X, 3X, 10X more fiats. I can't see how they could ever stop. It just looks like the world is going full-Zimbabwe.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 10:56 | 3304606 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

FRAUD makes a new all-time high everyday also, nobody will put that on the front page.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 10:59 | 3304611 Badabing
Badabing's picture

you always have to let out a little line before you sink the hook and reel it in.

the dupes will swollow hook line and sphinkter.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 10:59 | 3304617 Stuart
Stuart's picture


buyers beware


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:01 | 3304620 Zola
Zola's picture

This ends in wheelbarrows. Don't underestimate what you can do when there is a coup d'etat on the world reserve currency. This ends when the dollar is toilet paper or the cabal overthrown. period.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:02 | 3304631 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly, no turning back now until the supply lines break and we all "go to the matresses" to sort it out.  Amazing that humanity really hasn't learned a damn thing after all these years.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:36 | 3304791 Karlus
Karlus's picture

This is a bubble in equities plain and simple. It never seems obvious when you are inside the bubble, but really clear after it pops.


Is there anyone left that would buy AAPL for 700 or even 600 or 500? The answer is no. Its basically a $200-250 stock.

Same with the housing boom. People were screaming at the tops of their lungs to refinance, or flip that house or whatever. And here is the important thing. "This time is different" and "it will never end." Bubbles are like that.

What is trading for? How 'bout them tulips?


Much ado about nothing really...just sit back and wait for the bubble to pop and if you are the speculative type, buy an inverse ETF.

The Fed has "ultimate power" right up to the microsecond when it does not. It might be bond vigilantes or a geopolitical event....whatever. When they all decide to sell at the same time, look out below.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 16:16 | 3305902 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Bond vigilantes (private holders....not TBTF bansk and not government holders) ar irrelevant in the face of trillions of printed money. They just are. This ends in wheelbarrows full of worthless fiats.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:00 | 3304621 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Great, financial "products" of mass destruction are now an even larger part of the eCONomy.  LMFAO, this should end well.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:01 | 3304625 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

but...but....MDB says we should BUY BUY BUY

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:05 | 3304642 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Financial advisors telling people if they aren't in the markets they should get in, instead of saying "You missed it, stay in TIPS or Treasuries until the next major correction."

Oh no.

"Hey folks, if you have $50,000 you'd be crazy not to put it into stocks, just look at them go!

Long term diversified portfolio blah...hummum...shizzle....blah"

Yup, and after the next correction it will be worth $10,000 and Wall Street will thank you for your $40,000 by getting more bailouts from your children and grand-children's future.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:30 | 3304763 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Hey! This is exactly what happened to my investments in silver miners. In a mean time KWN keeps telling me to throw more money at them. It's literally a hole in the ground (hole that sucks money).

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:07 | 3304650 madcows
madcows's picture

It is different.  If there is any attempt at a correction the FED will step in a buy a few trillion to keep the market up.  There will be no real correction.  The FIAT in chief will not permit it.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:11 | 3304673 HD
HD's picture

It took almost 4 trillion just to get back to 2007 highs. Fed will never raise rates or stop printing - but that doesn't mean S&P wont revert to the mean.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:04 | 3304906 akarc
akarc's picture

Yepper. Takes alot of energy to get a rocket beyond gravity and then everything is cool. Until.......... There is a lot of gravity out there.  Gravity + stupid = holy shit! 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:12 | 3304676 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

this is how far japanese people will go for money in a tv show...

I've seen some sick stuff from the japanese before but this is the limit!
people rub themselves with urine of a female dog and than carry a dog in heat across a finish line... so the dog is trying to fuck the guy carrying the dog... sick stuff... for money.... I thought japanese people where proud people... I guess that's a thing of the past...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:23 | 3304731 gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

I need a number from theirs dealer...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:35 | 3304785 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Still more dignified than working on Wall St.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:16 | 3304685 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

Do not worry, The Bernank has personally assured me that the Fed is building a solid-lead domino that should not and probably won't topple.  

Sleep easy my friends. 

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:17 | 3304701 Jason T
Jason T's picture

British Pound and Japanese Yen crashing is perhaps causing capital to flee from there into where else but the only place that can absorb outside of US treasuries..which really such.. US equities.  


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:37 | 3304799 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Stealth repatriation of the cash hoard.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:18 | 3304708 Mike7.62
Mike7.62's picture

Did they really have a Chipotle Mexican Grill in NYC in 1929?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:37 | 3304796 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yes, but times were different then, so they grilled actual Mexicans.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:24 | 3304735 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

With "Skynet" who needs a job?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:27 | 3304751 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I don’t know which straw will break the illusion. Middle eastern war? Hostility between China and Japan? North Korea? Chinese real estate and subprime meltdown? Student debt? Eurozone? Natural disasters?


The author is clueless. All those things are bullish. War pestilence, famine, are all good for the economy. Utterly clueless.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:33 | 3304781 Aziz
Aziz's picture

Moar aggregate demand?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:48 | 3304812 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

You think war is bad for the stock market? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!


edit: do you want to know what would bring this eCONoME TO ITS KNEES? People/gubbermints/countries living within their means. Peace, tranquility, and contentment.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:01 | 3304910 Aziz
Aziz's picture

Here's the DJIA during WW2, a war the US won (losing countries' stock markets collapsed):

War is beneficial for certain political interests (e.g. military-industrial complex), but it's generally negative for the actual economy. It's an active wealth destroyer.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:07 | 3304935 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Are you claiming that we have had only one war in the past 100 years? Are you claiming that the stock market would actually be higher if we hadn't had any wars?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:52 | 3304874 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I'm sure Jamie Dimon sits up in his office mumbling: Gee I hope there's no war, gee I hope there's no war... :SNARK!:

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:40 | 3304813 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Total debt is slowly shrinking."

How can that be when the government is creating more and more debt?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:40 | 3304818 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Amazing, isn't it.  The can keeps being kicked. There's no end to the fraud and corruption of current policy and the psychos in charge.  Oh, it will definitely end at some point and it won't be pretty.  Already we have more controls and loss of freedoms than under Hitler.  The new false flag will trigger the final collapse.  Given the latest propaganda being spewed on a constant basis, it undoubtedly will be a cyber attack to enable the internet  kill switch.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:41 | 3304820 sharonsj
sharonsj's picture

People feel richer....

Next time I'm at the checkout counter, I'll just hand the cashier a drawing of a happy face instead of the money I don't have.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:44 | 3304838 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SPX daily shows megaphone wedge so big move awaits.
It should overule DXY bias.


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:49 | 3304855 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

I am thinking that this time IS different. This time the goal is to crush the nuvo-riche. There is too much money in the hands of the upper middle class ... and these upstarts are pretending to be part of the core cabal... when they are simple servants with delusions of grandeur. You can tell who the pretenders are. They are bailing in a futile attempt to protect their ill-gotten gains.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:50 | 3304863 alfbell
alfbell's picture

When this next correction comes what happens to the USD? I would think up... as the dumb fish investors that bit now pull out whatever they have left out of the market and rush back to treasuries and CDs, right?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:53 | 3304878 Michelle
Michelle's picture

But I don't understand, CNBC is telling me to buy buy buy and that stocks are cheap. The housing recovery is well on it's way to being a growth engine and that all is well in la la land. I think I will mortgage the house and sink all my money in Google.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:01 | 3304914 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The wider implications may not be as bad as 2008.

How fucking high are you?? This is gonna be worse than 2008. Way worse.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:09 | 3304949 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Putting aside the longer-term discussions for a moment, from a daytrading standpoint it looks thus far (through 11 am eastern) that we have a clear algo sawtooth distrubution pattern happening in the Russell, with the bias generally down from the open but nearly impossible to trade (at least for humans), with the DMI intertwining like a braided rope.  I'll bet we continue along these lines until we hit the next lower pivot, then there'll be a magical 12:30 push back toward today's high for the lazy selloff to continue.  As the various VIX's leak higher, it doesn't look, at least for now, that we'll go barrelling forward to crush any higher-stopped shorts today, at least not until 3:52 ...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:09 | 3304951 adr
adr's picture

It took me six years to get back to where I was after the 2000 crash. I graduated from college and got a $60k job at Lucent Technologies. Three months later, my department at Lucent no longer existed.  I had to work crap jobs and over the next five years a massive flood of new graduates overwhelmed my job category, vastly outnumbering the open positions. Starting salaries dropped from the high 50s to the mid 20s as new graduates would take a job paying nothing just to get one. The greed of the corporation loved it. What once was a great career path, was now a commoditized waste.

Here are people who give you return on your investment. You pay them $30k and they create products that return millions of dollars. Yet in the new corporate America, they didn't matter at all. The returns I could create pale to what the stock market can do. I can verify over $1 billion in sales on products I created over the past ten years. A good CFO cooking the books could generate $1 billion in stock returns in a few seconds. Cooking the books to create an EPS beat could increase the value of the company by hundreds of millions to a few billion dollars. The CEO and management who own the shares got 5-50% richer in seconds. Try creating that kind of return through the supply chain and end sales. Not going to happen.

Product and quality is at the bottom of the list now. In fact you no longer need a product to create revenue. The most valuable new corporations don't actually produce anything of value. The online version of the old Yellow Page Phonebook is worth a couple hundred billion, the online locker room wall is jus shy of $100 billion.

So don't complain they say, invest in the stock market. Well at my productive job I managed to save $15k by 2009. I was having a kid and needed a house. I used $10k for that. Would anyone in their right mind invest the last bit of a meager savings in the market in 2009? If. Went the ES route I'd have what $10k now, WOW.

Over the past few years I've saved $32k in cash and stocked a decent quantity of silver dollar coins. That also didn't come all at once. Could I have invested the savings and turned $30k into a couple million dollars? Yes, but I would have needed to make every right call in stocks that shot up a couple hundred percent in months. I would have needed to quit my productive job and daytraded, moving the funds around all day long chasing yeild. I'm sorry but if I somehow turned $30k into millions over the last few years I deserve a show more than Cramer.

Or I could have played it safe and bought some market tracking ETF. Maybe I could have got lucky and tripled my money. Sure having $50k in the bank would be nice. But that doesn't even equal one year at my productive job.

The way things look, if I lose my job I will not get another one soon. If I do get another one it will probably pay less, meaning to maintain my lifestyle I will need to draw down that extra cash. Sure the invesments would allow me to last a bit longer, but the end result would be the same.

Fine the stock market is hitting new highs. It doesn't matter to anyone that works aproductive job for a living. Bernanke has destroyed employment and productivity as part of the equation. All that matters now is fraud and stock performance. If you were a CEO and could print yourself million per month without actually needing to produce a single item of value, would you? If you made it to the top of a publicly traded corporation, you probably aren't the kind of person who would struggle with a ethical question.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:12 | 3304962 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Bullish on MDB trolling.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:23 | 3305002 poldark
poldark's picture

ON BBC TV tonight.  America's Poor Kids.

Child poverty has reached levels in the US with more than 16 million children affected.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:26 | 3305018 whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

love that SS logo...soon to be known as Shit ona Stick, Inc...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:28 | 3305025 alfbell
alfbell's picture

What's gonna happen to the USD over the next year or two? Anybody?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:35 | 3305059 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Well, China has stopped buying Treasuries 2 years ago and more and more countries are settling trade deficits in currency other than the dollar.  If foreign investment in America just slows to half, then the dollar will go poof.  Poof is a technical term for the dollar bubble popping.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:58 | 3305155 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"Quick, someone start a war!"

- Banksters when the DJIA crashes

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 14:46 | 3305506 translator zero
translator zero's picture

Get back to me when you scale the charts to real dollars. LOL

Until then:

Dow Down 50% Against Gold Since Last Record Dow in October 2007




Wed, 03/06/2013 - 16:59 | 3306059 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

.... Another new record, when was the last "the market" made an all time high on volume this low? Has not happened since yesterday.

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