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Top-Down & Bottom-Up In 7 Sad Slides
The 15% run since mid-November (or 60% annualized return) in the S&P 500 is attributed to the optics of tail-risk reduction and a renewed flood of central bank liquidity. However, as UBS notes, downside risks appear to be rising, with volatility increasing, investor sentiment readings starting to wane, and flows into equity funds turning negative. They believe, confirmed by the following five (*well seven) charts, that fundamentals remain relatively weak. On the 'top-down' macro-economic front, their US growth surprise index has rolled over, and consensus GDP expectations are down. On the 'bottom-up' earnings front, S&P 500 companies (ex-Financials) beat by 4.5% in 4Q but this followed a 6.1% downward revision coming into earnings season. Moreover, guidance has been weak, and revision trends remain negative. The consumer is suffering from near-term pressure, and recently, a number of companies have signaled near-term consumer softness attributed to higher tax rates, delayed refunds, and rising gas prices which perhaps explains why it has been 42 weeks without net positive EPS revisions.
Top-Down...
and Bottom-Up...
and as a brief reminder (and bonus sixth 'top-down' chart) here is the latest data point out of the US and what it is signaling...
and just for good measure, a bonus bonus seventh 'bottom-up' chart showing it has been 42 weeks now without net positive EPS revisions...
Charts: Bloomberg, UBS, and @Not_Jim_Cramer
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Show me the one chart that matters:
The balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve.
S&P 1750, bitchez!
Zero Hedge
Rand Paul is talking but you are not reporting
http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN2/
Who is John Galt?
S & P 120.
Buy a Dow for a single "money laundering" coin.
Given the pathetic tape, it just feels like we'll see a 200 pt downdraft, perhaps later this week after the various job data emerges. Not saying this is the beginning of the end (perhaps May for that), but I don't see us rocketing forward before Monday.
85 bil/mo
nice charts
they made me cream
Outstanding.
You can see the heavy hand of the Fed in that chart of the S&P 500 vs factory orders. It's sad to see a long-standing institution like the Federal Reserve, which hasn't always been this bad, become the biggest problem in the U.S. economy.
the Fed has always been bad
the original pupose of the Fed was to be a backstop to the member banks
it allowed them to leverage up more than they might otherwise be able to and therefore garner greater profits
now, other segments of the economy don't have a central pharmacy or miner or manufacturer
the concept doesn't make sense
why is banking any different from any other business?
Ah, because the state has legitimized the handing out of more coat checks than there are coats
ultmately someone will go home cold
meanwhile the banks are happy to fund the state's deficits
so, nobody goes home without a coat, it's just that my coat isn't as warm as it used to be
Volcker took away the punch bowl.
Greenspan and Bernanke both spiked it.
There's a difference there.
There might be an extended delay in those tax refunds - like a full year! If people cashed out gains in 2012, or got accelerated divvies in 2012, then there might not BE any refunds. Same thing with some of thise earned income and child care deductions. You cannot claim them if you are not working.
This current rally is a marked up distribution from hell, but not to retail, straight back into the Wall Street greed trade. Liquidity is actually tight, as ZH notes in credit and DXY markets + emerging economies are looking sicker by the day, seen in FX and ETFs, stocks and bonds.
Commodities are not rallying along with gold. So we got problem, big f*cking problem, if Asia/BRICs are either choking on stagflation to upright deflation collapse. The QE experiment to re-inflate the global economy has failed, instead they got a global stock bubble. And if bursts...
No wonder those 'geniuses' look sick and busted. Their arrogance is killing them.
A few more posts like this please chump... I may come in off the ledge.
from open to close they make it look like the smoothest rally ever but you just know if a mouse farts someone will scream "SELL!!!!!"
From your mouth to Gods ears Fonz...
Please do.
Their time is done, this rally is 100% artifical. Look at the darlings of risk on everything is fine trades - BRICS, AUD, CAD. All screwed, right now. The emerging markets are sending us a wake up call
What I like, is the ZH army and their sense of humor, you gotta laugh at the BS.
Stay frosty.
Couldn't agree more. The humor and wisdom of my fellow ZHers makes this whole clusterfuck tolerable.
what the fuck is eps?
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eps.asp
Thanks HD !
No problem mate.
Near term near term? That needs to be changed to very "long term!"