Yet Another Funny Chart: January Factory Orders Confirm Manufacturing Slump Continues

Tyler Durden's picture


Following the earlier laughable seasonally adjusted ADP data (because for some reason Mark Zandi does not find it necessary to supplement his report with the unadjusted data), courtesy of which the gullible public was supposed to believe that in February as small businesses were running out of money they proceeded to engage in a massive hiring spree, we thought: "hmmm: maybe there is a free lunch, and a drop in government spending however meager, will not manifest itself in economic data. Why, just look at the ADP..."

Alas, moments ago we got the January factory orders data, and our thought experiment was promptly terminated. The good news: the headline number posted a -2.0% drop in January, the biggest M/M drop in 5 month, which however beat expectations of an even more acute drop of -2.2%, which was driven by a collapse in defense and transportation orders, as spending cuts are finally felt through the supply chain. The bad news... well, we'll let the chart below do the talking.

Wait: we know - just ignore all those orders which were negative, just as we should do with corporate profits, with GDP, with jobs, with markets, with elections, and with everything else too.

That said, please point out where on this Year/Year change in factory orders is this much discussed recovery which is supposedly the basis for a new all time high in the Dow Jones. Because we are confused.

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Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:29 | 3304755 jeff314
jeff314's picture

No need to work invest in the stock market just like 1999... it will be better this time

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:29 | 3304761 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

The Fed is getting ready to start raising rates. Wall Street and Feds are compensating for that by irrationally exhuberating the stock market so that the indices do not fall by too much to shock the system and the zoloft induced fantasy.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:31 | 3304769 jeff314
jeff314's picture

if they raise rate  USA go bankrupt...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:34 | 3304784 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

'King of Simpletons' ~ perfect username...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:38 | 3304803 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I guess Canada is expecting the US to sequester them too???

Canadian Ivey PMI SA (Feb) M/M 51.5 vs. Exp.56.0 (Prev. 58.9)

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:34 | 3304783 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Fed will never raise rates until it's forced to.

Like spiralling inflation which increases prices daily.

Kind of like Argentina. 

Otherwise the fiscal recklessness continues by Washington.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:49 | 3304860 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

they'll raise rates when they lose control on the gold market.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:36 | 3304793 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

hee aw, hee aw, hee aways calls me that. nice troll jackass. zirp 4 evah. deal with it.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:45 | 3304835 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"The Fed is getting ready to start raising rates." - LMFAO!!!


So the Fed is getting ready to shut down the U.S. government then?  I don't think so.  Who will enforce their fucking theft?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:51 | 3304867 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'll believe the FED makes a move to raise rates when I see it....until then, nothing but a fantasy.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:57 | 3304892 orez65
orez65's picture

The Fed can not raise interest rates because it will burst the bond bubble.

Then the poop hits the fan.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:37 | 3305068 max2205
max2205's picture

The only fiscal policy left is a tax holiday for 1 year so everyone can buy china shit

Other than that we r fucked

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:35 | 3304770 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I was going to watch DOW 14K! last night on CNBC but I shot out my TV set as soon as I saw Asshat Cramer. Instead I DVRed it so I can watch and compare it to a new DOW 14K! that will be on again in 5 years.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:41 | 3304823 optionsman
optionsman's picture

+1 welcome to rentier capitalism ;)

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:42 | 3304827 Croesus
Croesus's picture

I'd love to hear everybody's thoughts on this one:



Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:02 | 3304843 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Desparation, nothing more.  Isn't fascism great?  These companies will simply stop reporting their "cash" holding.  I mean we already have "mark to fucking fantasy accounting" anyway so why the fuck not?

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:40 | 3305265 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Cash in dollars technically is worth 0 so they wouldn't be lying.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:46 | 3304844 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Poor reasoning...companies aren't hiring because there isn't any demand to justify increased production (as the chart from this article can attest).

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:59 | 3305316 Skyprince
Skyprince's picture

Right out of "Atlas Shrugged" where the government, out of desperation, started micromanaging capital allocation, labor markets, etc.  Wait a minute...isn't that what we are doing now?  As things devolve, expect more and more of "save" the people from all those greedy capitalists.



Thu, 03/07/2013 - 01:10 | 3307789 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

who are you talking about...the 'mystics of muscle'....??

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:51 | 3304865 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The whole record setting levels thing actually puts the Govmint and MSM in a tough place.  It was ok to have lackluster economic activity with a very good stock market.  

But the sheeple are going to actually going to start thinking, how the fuck can the stock market going historic, and yet my pay check is actually less in dollars and the cost of food and fuel is rising.


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:40 | 3305077 Umh
Umh's picture

By definition sheeple do not think. If a couple of brain cells question what is going on the internal operating code changes the channel.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:41 | 3305080 suteibu
suteibu's picture

That's what this government wants so that the lack of jobs and the lower paychecks can be blamed on evil, greedy capitalism which will lead to the complete melding of corporations with the government through regulation designed to protect the biggest lobbyists all in the name of "fairness."  Or something.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:29 | 3304759 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SPX daily shows megaphone wedge so big move awaits.
It should overule DXY bias.


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:30 | 3304762 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

honey badger don't give a shit

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:47 | 3304849 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Thanks, Randall.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:31 | 3304764 ekm
ekm's picture


Crude oil at above $90 for longer than 6 months, it's a guaranteed contraction.

It's been above that for almost 2 years already.




Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:35 | 3304788 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Correct.  And QE is financial Prozac.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:38 | 3304802 ekm
ekm's picture

Again. QE has got nothing to do with the economy.


QE is to provide money to primary dealers to do CDS payouts quarterly.

All that money has to find a place, can't just fly around, and it's going to oil, commodities and treasuries.


The Fed and primary dealers are simply taking care of the DOW since nobody cares about DOW any longer.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 11:53 | 3304881 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture



I read the whole exchange you had the other day on the subject [which was a good one ~ & I don't necessarily disagree with your argument]...

But it's a little far fetched to observe that it 'has nothing to do with the economy'... At best ~ let's call it 'SYNTHETIC' at the moment because the printed money only makes it as far as 'casino chips' for the PD's... It sill doesn't hide the fact that those casino chips are being used to make bets on granny's cat food & other things... When yu artificially manipulate prices, that's meddling wth the economy...

So the 'synthetic' aspect of it will go on for how long?... Only until all the CDS payouts are satisfied?... What then?... It stops?... At that point, you're still faced with the prospect of the whole house of cards falling down... So then you'd either get QE for QE sake... Or it all stops & wealth takes a cliff dive...

I'm pretty sure you're on board with the 'deflationary' picture [more specifically ~ that you see the strong hands being able to cherry pick assets for pennies on the dollar & that that's most likely the plan]...


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:03 | 3304920 ekm
ekm's picture

Agree on deflation. When commodities are in hyperinflation, input prices are high, hence finished product become unaffordable and price deflation of finished goods ensues = disaster, as it is happening right now.


It's going to stop whenever Obama gives the order to stop. Period. As any president of USA, orders usually come from the military complex.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:18 | 3304979 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'd be on board with the 'deflation' theory with the caveat that TPTB realize, in the process, must attempt to get a stranglehold on all the critical manufacturing & distribution channels [so as to be on the ground floor on a new 'ramp up' phase]... It's probably happening as we speak... You'll have to go through 'THE MAN' if you want anything...


The 'deflation' scenario means one thing & one thing only... EMPTY SHELVES... There's not going to be any parade of grannies celebrating that there's a half price sale on catfood... Instead ~ there will be no catfood... There will be a lot of ghost towns... Jobs will go to people are willing to do menial work... Anyone IN DEBT when TSHTF will have no chance... If this is the case ~ I wouldn't be suprised to see some new 'debt slave' law get passed right before the plug is pulled...


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:34 | 3305056 ekm
ekm's picture

Ultimately we can only speculate.

Nobody knows what goes into Obama's head but his hands will be forced........eventually

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:23 | 3305004 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

ekm, francis....

I'm hearing rumors that Omama has already given the order...

He believes he can tie this in to the sequester and pin the blame on the Repugnantcans, leading to a Dem victory in both houses of Congress in the midterm elections (if not outright marshall law, which I personally suspect is his ultimate goal).

We'll know soon....

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:27 | 3305020 ekm
ekm's picture

Typical LBJ.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:31 | 3305042 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah but LBJ couldn't hack the hatin' & dropped out...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 15:21 | 3305646 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

yeah [johnson knew he didn't have a shot for reelection]... and the wall street gangs were fed up with vietnam and where it was going [nowhere]-- but, ironically... then comes tricky dick?, prolonging the agony!

somethings never change, but nixon got us china, via kissinger, via pakistan-- which is why china is so endeared to pakistan to this very day...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:32 | 3305036 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 @MiltonF... I frankly don't think Obama has much to do with any timeline... He doesn't have that much power [& the sequester is 'small time']...


That said ~ I wouldn't be suprised to see that he ends up as 'the figurehead' in any move to grab dictatorial type power... Dictators throughout history have had machines behind them [Obama would be no exception]...

I think I remember ekm hinting at the idea that it may be time for another PD or three to go down the tubes [like BS & Lehman]... More consolidation of power... Even though even average peple would see through the ruse this time around, nobody would give a fucking shit... They're still too busy clutching onto their EBT cards & March Madness...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:32 | 3305048 ekm
ekm's picture

Everybody said no more collapses of primary deaelers and then..............MFG baaaaaaaaaam.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:35 | 3305053 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

yup ~ see comment below [just for 'diversity' ~ it'll probably be a big European bank, or three, that blows up]

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:49 | 3305119 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture


Agreed, Obama is the figurehead, no doubt, but perfectlly happy to fulfill that role as long as he is annointed "King".  The sequester is in reality a nonissue, as we both know, however, the annointed one is quite adept at campaigning and seems capable of brainwashing the masses with the help of a complicit msm.

He has cover with the sequester and the time for action, acccording to a few leaked e-mails, may just be now.

Heil Obama

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:06 | 3305185 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

Yep, Obama couldn't give two shits about America

It's all politics and his legacy.....

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 15:09 | 3305391 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

In my home state, I predict martial law would be met with a lot, I mean a lot of dead LEOs.  They'd need a lot of armed Federal Troops and armored vehicles. 

I don't believe in violence.  But I'm not always true to myself.  At 25' with a .45 hand gun, I don't miss the target.  On occasion, I get double bulls eye (2nd atop the 1st) with one clip.  Big, strong hands and arms make for good shooting with big hand guns.   

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 15:40 | 3305749 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

My state also....., I just laugh out loud when they start talking about going door to door confiscating AR-15s

Goooood luck boss

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:02 | 3305169 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

I think you guys are thinking too far out....

Think months not years...

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:19 | 3305218 ekm
ekm's picture

I am actually thinking WEEKS.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:37 | 3305261 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

I'm like you, I scour the internet for nuggets to further my ideas, But the Internet has limitations.

My secret weapon is a childhood friend who worked on Wall st. for 22 years as an FX trader, the stuff he tells me I can't even find on the Internet. The understanding he has is a whole other beast.

There is no way out of this, I don't care what anybody says......



Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:43 | 3305273 ekm
ekm's picture

Extremely interestd in his feedback. Please, keep us up to date.

Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:54 | 3305302 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

We don't really get to hear what Wall st. insiders think...The stuff in the press is just sound bites.

He thinks your smart but you only have so much information to go on, we all do.

Insiders make the whole thing go around.

People like us are just along for the ride.....

We're kept ignorant for a reason.


Wed, 03/06/2013 - 13:47 | 3305285 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture



I'm with you on the possible timing.  A false flag, likely of the economic sort as has been discussed, then in the words of the immortal Harry Caray, it could be, it might be, it is....

martial law.

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