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Yet Another Funny Chart: January Factory Orders Confirm Manufacturing Slump Continues
Following the earlier laughable seasonally adjusted ADP data (because for some reason Mark Zandi does not find it necessary to supplement his report with the unadjusted data), courtesy of which the gullible public was supposed to believe that in February as small businesses were running out of money they proceeded to engage in a massive hiring spree, we thought: "hmmm: maybe there is a free lunch, and a drop in government spending however meager, will not manifest itself in economic data. Why, just look at the ADP..."
Alas, moments ago we got the January factory orders data, and our thought experiment was promptly terminated. The good news: the headline number posted a -2.0% drop in January, the biggest M/M drop in 5 month, which however beat expectations of an even more acute drop of -2.2%, which was driven by a collapse in defense and transportation orders, as spending cuts are finally felt through the supply chain. The bad news... well, we'll let the chart below do the talking.
Wait: we know - just ignore all those orders which were negative, just as we should do with corporate profits, with GDP, with jobs, with markets, with elections, and with everything else too.
That said, please point out where on this Year/Year change in factory orders is this much discussed recovery which is supposedly the basis for a new all time high in the Dow Jones. Because we are confused.
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No need to work invest in the stock market just like 1999... it will be better this time
The Fed is getting ready to start raising rates. Wall Street and Feds are compensating for that by irrationally exhuberating the stock market so that the indices do not fall by too much to shock the system and the zoloft induced fantasy.
if they raise rate USA go bankrupt...
'King of Simpletons' ~ perfect username...
I guess Canada is expecting the US to sequester them too???
Canadian Ivey PMI SA (Feb) M/M 51.5 vs. Exp.56.0 (Prev. 58.9)
The Fed will never raise rates until it's forced to.
Like spiralling inflation which increases prices daily.
Kind of like Argentina.
Otherwise the fiscal recklessness continues by Washington.
they'll raise rates when they lose control on the gold market.
hee aw, hee aw, hee aways calls me that. nice troll jackass. zirp 4 evah. deal with it.
"The Fed is getting ready to start raising rates." - LMFAO!!!
So the Fed is getting ready to shut down the U.S. government then? I don't think so. Who will enforce their fucking theft?
I'll believe the FED makes a move to raise rates when I see it....until then, nothing but a fantasy.
The Fed can not raise interest rates because it will burst the bond bubble.
Then the poop hits the fan.
The only fiscal policy left is a tax holiday for 1 year so everyone can buy china shit
Other than that we r fucked
I was going to watch DOW 14K! last night on CNBC but I shot out my TV set as soon as I saw Asshat Cramer. Instead I DVRed it so I can watch and compare it to a new DOW 14K! that will be on again in 5 years.
+1 welcome to rentier capitalism ;)
I'd love to hear everybody's thoughts on this one:
http://www.againstcronycapitalism.org/2013/03/hoarders-tax-is-right-out-...
Desparation, nothing more. Isn't fascism great? These companies will simply stop reporting their "cash" holding. I mean we already have "mark to fucking fantasy accounting" anyway so why the fuck not?
Cash in dollars technically is worth 0 so they wouldn't be lying.
Poor reasoning...companies aren't hiring because there isn't any demand to justify increased production (as the chart from this article can attest).
Right out of "Atlas Shrugged" where the government, out of desperation, started micromanaging capital allocation, labor markets, etc. Wait a minute...isn't that what we are doing now? As things devolve, expect more and more of this...to "save" the people from all those greedy capitalists.
who are you talking about...the 'mystics of muscle'....??
The whole record setting levels thing actually puts the Govmint and MSM in a tough place. It was ok to have lackluster economic activity with a very good stock market.
But the sheeple are going to actually going to start thinking, how the fuck can the stock market going historic, and yet my pay check is actually less in dollars and the cost of food and fuel is rising.
By definition sheeple do not think. If a couple of brain cells question what is going on the internal operating code changes the channel.
That's what this government wants so that the lack of jobs and the lower paychecks can be blamed on evil, greedy capitalism which will lead to the complete melding of corporations with the government through regulation designed to protect the biggest lobbyists all in the name of "fairness." Or something.
SPX daily shows megaphone wedge so big move awaits.
It should overule DXY bias.
trader618
honey badger don't give a shit
Thanks, Randall.
Remember:
Crude oil at above $90 for longer than 6 months, it's a guaranteed contraction.
It's been above that for almost 2 years already.
WE ARE IN DEPRESSION. PERIOD.
Correct. And QE is financial Prozac.
Again. QE has got nothing to do with the economy.
QE is to provide money to primary dealers to do CDS payouts quarterly.
All that money has to find a place, can't just fly around, and it's going to oil, commodities and treasuries.
The Fed and primary dealers are simply taking care of the DOW since nobody cares about DOW any longer.
@ekm
~~~
I read the whole exchange you had the other day on the subject [which was a good one ~ & I don't necessarily disagree with your argument]...
But it's a little far fetched to observe that it 'has nothing to do with the economy'... At best ~ let's call it 'SYNTHETIC' at the moment because the printed money only makes it as far as 'casino chips' for the PD's... It sill doesn't hide the fact that those casino chips are being used to make bets on granny's cat food & other things... When yu artificially manipulate prices, that's meddling wth the economy...
So the 'synthetic' aspect of it will go on for how long?... Only until all the CDS payouts are satisfied?... What then?... It stops?... At that point, you're still faced with the prospect of the whole house of cards falling down... So then you'd either get QE for QE sake... Or it all stops & wealth takes a cliff dive...
I'm pretty sure you're on board with the 'deflationary' picture [more specifically ~ that you see the strong hands being able to cherry pick assets for pennies on the dollar & that that's most likely the plan]...
Agree on deflation. When commodities are in hyperinflation, input prices are high, hence finished product become unaffordable and price deflation of finished goods ensues = disaster, as it is happening right now.
It's going to stop whenever Obama gives the order to stop. Period. As any president of USA, orders usually come from the military complex.
I'd be on board with the 'deflation' theory with the caveat that TPTB realize, in the process, must attempt to get a stranglehold on all the critical manufacturing & distribution channels [so as to be on the ground floor on a new 'ramp up' phase]... It's probably happening as we speak... You'll have to go through 'THE MAN' if you want anything...
~~~
The 'deflation' scenario means one thing & one thing only... EMPTY SHELVES... There's not going to be any parade of grannies celebrating that there's a half price sale on catfood... Instead ~ there will be no catfood... There will be a lot of ghost towns... Jobs will go to people are willing to do menial work... Anyone IN DEBT when TSHTF will have no chance... If this is the case ~ I wouldn't be suprised to see some new 'debt slave' law get passed right before the plug is pulled...
Ultimately we can only speculate.
Nobody knows what goes into Obama's head but his hands will be forced........eventually
ekm, francis....
I'm hearing rumors that Omama has already given the order...
He believes he can tie this in to the sequester and pin the blame on the Repugnantcans, leading to a Dem victory in both houses of Congress in the midterm elections (if not outright marshall law, which I personally suspect is his ultimate goal).
We'll know soon....
Typical LBJ.
Yeah but LBJ couldn't hack the hatin' & dropped out...
yeah [johnson knew he didn't have a shot for reelection]... and the wall street gangs were fed up with vietnam and where it was going [nowhere]-- but, ironically... then comes tricky dick?, prolonging the agony!
somethings never change, but nixon got us china, via kissinger, via pakistan-- which is why china is so endeared to pakistan to this very day...
@MiltonF... I frankly don't think Obama has much to do with any timeline... He doesn't have that much power [& the sequester is 'small time']...
~~~
That said ~ I wouldn't be suprised to see that he ends up as 'the figurehead' in any move to grab dictatorial type power... Dictators throughout history have had machines behind them [Obama would be no exception]...
I think I remember ekm hinting at the idea that it may be time for another PD or three to go down the tubes [like BS & Lehman]... More consolidation of power... Even though even average peple would see through the ruse this time around, nobody would give a fucking shit... They're still too busy clutching onto their EBT cards & March Madness...
Everybody said no more collapses of primary deaelers and then..............MFG baaaaaaaaaam.
yup ~ see comment below [just for 'diversity' ~ it'll probably be a big European bank, or three, that blows up]
francis,
Agreed, Obama is the figurehead, no doubt, but perfectlly happy to fulfill that role as long as he is annointed "King". The sequester is in reality a nonissue, as we both know, however, the annointed one is quite adept at campaigning and seems capable of brainwashing the masses with the help of a complicit msm.
He has cover with the sequester and the time for action, acccording to a few leaked e-mails, may just be now.
Heil Obama
Yep, Obama couldn't give two shits about America
It's all politics and his legacy.....
In my home state, I predict martial law would be met with a lot, I mean a lot of dead LEOs. They'd need a lot of armed Federal Troops and armored vehicles.
I don't believe in violence. But I'm not always true to myself. At 25' with a .45 hand gun, I don't miss the target. On occasion, I get double bulls eye (2nd atop the 1st) with one clip. Big, strong hands and arms make for good shooting with big hand guns.
My state also....., I just laugh out loud when they start talking about going door to door confiscating AR-15s
Goooood luck boss
I think you guys are thinking too far out....
Think months not years...
I am actually thinking WEEKS.
I'm like you, I scour the internet for nuggets to further my ideas, But the Internet has limitations.
My secret weapon is a childhood friend who worked on Wall st. for 22 years as an FX trader, the stuff he tells me I can't even find on the Internet. The understanding he has is a whole other beast.
There is no way out of this, I don't care what anybody says......
Extremely interestd in his feedback. Please, keep us up to date.
We don't really get to hear what Wall st. insiders think...The stuff in the press is just sound bites.
He thinks your smart but you only have so much information to go on, we all do.
Insiders make the whole thing go around.
People like us are just along for the ride.....
We're kept ignorant for a reason.
ekm,
I'm with you on the possible timing. A false flag, likely of the economic sort as has been discussed, then in the words of the immortal Harry Caray, it could be, it might be, it is....
martial law.
Many people on Wall st. think the whole second amendment thing is going to blow up
Many people don't understand that even a small conflict could easily get out of control.
That's partly why I'm NOT thinking weeks or months...
~~~
Even a billion hollowpoints isn't enough for anything more than a defensive posture in key areas... [The US MIlitary can't even hold down Iraq, Afghanistan, or South Vietnam]... Turns out 'IT'S CZECHOSLOVAKIA! we zip in, we zip out, it's like goin' into WISCONSIN' is harder than it looks on paper...
Check out this site, there's a pretty cool graphic about Government vs civilian gun ownership...
http://politicalvelcraft.org/2013/03/06/175000000-people-were-slaughtere...
Kinda puts it all in perspective.....
to predictable. gonna be a flash somewhere we've least paid attention too, such as?
CDS payouts would be running until 2020.
Depression cannot last that long. We'll have food riots before that due to crude oil hyperinflation.
I don't necessarily see it happening in a straight line...
~~~
Even if the 'drop dead' on CDS payments is 2020, why couldn't the markets do another 'nose dive ~ recovery' [or two] in the process?... I know the idea seems SILLY to a lot of people on ZH [myself included]... But we're so far past FULL RETARD at this point, that nothing suprises me anymore...
The last time the DOW was at all time highs was 2007... So it's taken 5 1/2 years of smoke & mirrors... Maybe the next half life could be 3 years... After that ~ maybe 18 months of suspension of disbelief...
I really don't know anymore... All I see is a nation full of soccer moms who want to believe that the emperor has clothes on until their little 'iPad angel' gets kicked out of the nest...
~~~
This is going to be hard... I don't know if I have 7 more years of comedy routines [on ZH] to stretch me out to 2020... Gonna have to start plagarizing...
Yes. The euphemistically titled "Arab Spring" comes to the USSA, finally. Some of us (stupidly) laughed at Judaic Mel Brooks' "Spring Time For Hitler And Germany" (The Producers) back then. Here we are staring at "Spring Time For Fans Of American Idol."
I wonder, in short time, when the SHTF, will the Sheriff in this county forcibly remove me from this house if/when I stop paying the mortgage? Will the military actually shoot to kill their family and neighbors for burning down cities?
I listen to MSM news (NPR, to TV) and what they say sounds like I'm hallucinating.
The "Spring TIme for Hitler and Germany" reference warrants an up arrow. With respect to the local Sheriff removing you from you house, maybe not, but perhaps that's what this is for:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/03/obama-dhs-purchases-2700-light-armored-tanks-to-go-with-their-1-6-billion-bullet-stockpile/
Do these guys look as if they are ready to shoot Americans if ordered to do so?
love the year over year... it's all going down everywhere.. ships ramming into the sand as I type..
is that why the Baltic Dry Index is terrible?
It has been terrible since 2008 due to overcapacities in shipping. I know an attorney who makes a living by trying to get money back from bankrupt closed shipping funds. Business is boming for him. All these funds were started between 2005 and 2008.
A bit of a trend going on there since 2010
Funny "ha ha" or Funny "oh shit"?
Funny like a clown-like it amuses us
Let the POMO begin!
Oil also buidling up in inventories while they make little gasoline. maybe a storage tax is in order?
Well not so funny as you re permanently saying the market is up thanks to the FED. Anyway, seems these days everyone would agree with you
It's the old saying does a tree falling make any sound if nobody hears it?
But we'll be sure to hear the screams when that silent tree falls on their heads
Irrelevant!
does this include the American Bat Guano industry?
Funny like the smell from a fat girl's gym shorts.
Maybe all those ADP jobs are salesmen!
The real world uses this data only to confirm what they already know from other sources, which are early and reliable bellwethers. E.g. Shipping volumes (Panama, Suez), factory orders by industry, success at trade shows and the month after, sales forecasts within company...
The consumer-led recovery (ultimate end-user) is sputtering and has been for years. Given the REAL unemployment (U6) and under-employment, in face of rising real prices (food, energy). What's there to be 'confident' about, other than maybe having a job next month?
What do you expect with pull forward demand on two fronts.
Obummer for the pre election, and the 1 % avoiding the fiscal cliff.
Expect a downward revision next month.Sept will be called as the start of a
new recession,even though is just a continuation of the Greater Depression.
Winston - By Jove, I think you've got it!
Manufacturing is going strong! Orders? They don't need no stinking orders!
This is so awesome! DOW is at all time highs and the govt has all our backs forever and ever and ever. I am in my personal xanadu. Markets will keep going up forever and all I have to do is buy buy buy until Bennie says not to buy anymore, and I'm sure we will have lots of notice when that happens right? Why do we even need to think anymore, or engage in such piffling extravagences as critical thought or fundamental analysis? Ah Bennie... truly the cadillac of men.
<SARC>
The mortgage application numbers are laughable. Now that NINJA loans are available, fractional home ownership is available.(not to be confused with time shares) <sarc>
After all, when all that is needed is for one person to qualify for the [Life Insurance] and proof of ability to pay the mortgage (sans docs.), part time workers can now enjoy home ownership. The only caviat is that the accomodations are [military barraks] style, as you will be sharing said accomodations with 19 other part time workers.
Interesting chart. The decline being contrary to the DOW incline is remarkable. My gut feeling is that the higher the DOW goes on this hopium the harder and farther it's gonna fall - and I don't think it will make it past April 1 before we see that happen - a very big correction indeed.
Funny, because on the radio news at the top of the hour (ABC) I heard that factory orders were "better than expected" and that it was yet another sign of the "improving economy".
Maybe they "thought" the results of the sequester would be retroactive.
.... paging Dr. Krugman .... need more Keynesian mojo ....
"Explosive rise in anti-Government Patriot movement"
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/03/06/southern-poverty-law-center-c...
I can't understand why? sarc/
"Explosive rise...."
Defenders of the constitution painted as terrorists as fascism becomes the norm. Shocking, simply shocking I say. Who coudda eva predicted it. sarc off/
Wonder how many are being orchestrated by the FBI...
I'd like to point out to the monetization of epic proportions that is happening during the last lustrum.
http://thechinonomist.blogspot.com/2012/09/give-me-my-fix-doc.html
WHo cares!!!! THe market is going up. As Greenspan said, the stock market is the only thing that matters.
Greenspan should know, he created some of the largest market bubbles.
Durable Fakeouts
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/03/durable-fakeouts.html