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Guest Post: Hi Ho Silver: Making the Case For This Precious Metal
Submitted by Jeff Clark via Casey Research,
Even though the newsletter I write for Casey Research is focused primarily on gold, our metals investments cover all the precious metals, and when warranted, some base-metals plays too. And with the markets in the state they are, I want to say something about silver..
My talk at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in January was titled Is D-Day for Silver Approaching?, and highlighted the delicate balance between supply and demand. I concluded that there would be insufficient metal to meet a major spike in investment demand if it were to occur, leading to all kinds of negative consequences for those who don't own silver (and lots of wonderful rewards for those who do).
I had plenty of compelling charts and convincing data. But here's the rub: I don't believe that what's ahead for the price of silver (and gold) will have anything to do with that data. After all, there are articles from researchers and analysts that use similar data to paint a bearish outlook for the metal.
Instead, my reasoning is based on psychology. Here's a good example…
At a recent outpatient hospital visit, the nurse ran through the usual background questions, one of which was what I do for a living. I told her, and this was her response:
- "Oh, gold. That's exciting. But it's too expensive for me. I can't afford it."
Now, this is an RN in a hospital – someone who earns a good living and can afford to take a vacation and eat at the occasional fancy restaurant. She has money to buy birthday presents for her kids and probably contributes to a retirement account.
But when the value of money begins to erode more seriously and inflation makes front-page headlines, and my nurse turns to precious metals to gain some semblance of lifestyle protection, what is she going to buy? If she can't "afford" gold now, it won't be any "cheaper" later.
She'll buy silver. And so will a lot of other panicked investors who don't think they can "afford" gold and are watching their purchasing power relentlessly decline. It will drive prices higher. Perhaps wildly so.
The effect on the availability of bullion is obvious and will be all negative – high premiums, delayed delivery, and mandatory rationing. For those of you who've followed our lead and purchased bullion, consider this: you'll be paid above spot for any ounces you sell during this time.
The message is crystal clear: if you don't have a meaningful amount of silver bullion, buy more now.
This is why I'm not worried that the silver price continues to be range bound. Precious metals will be pursued by an alarmed and increasingly angry citizenry as their money loses more and more value. And just like my nurse, many will find silver more affordable. The result is that silver's percentage gain will almost certainly be much greater than gold's.
Meanwhile, the ramifications for silver producers are all positive. Revenue will jump. Earnings will rise. Dividends will increase. Stock prices will soar. And given the small number of stocks of primary silver producers trading in the industry, the rise in their share prices could be breathtaking.
This may seem like a distant scenario. And there will be retreats along the way, based on the false appearance of economic recovery – but these will just be last-gasp buying opportunities. Don't worry about the timing. Whatever happens in the near term, global economies cannot avoid the fallout from currency abuse indefinitely. History has repeatedly shown this. We don't know if the shift to price inflation will be sudden, occur in fits and jolts, or appear in a slow dawning, but escape it we will not.
Make sure you own some silver bullion, my friends. And then buy the grossly undervalued miners.
Buying physical gold and silver is obviously prudent, but to really capitalize you need exposure to quality producers – they historically outperform the metals themselves.
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I like silver.
In other news...
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/03/08/0200000000AEN20130308006...
N. Korean general says Pyongyang has nuke-tipped ICBMs on standby
A North Korean general said Thursday that the country has placed long-range missiles armed with nuclear warheads on standby, as Pyongyang said it will not bow to the United Nations resolution condemning its latest atomic weapons test.
Bullish... Krugman is probably furiously fapping right now over this news.
If so than the Krugs just came (on my twitter feed 3 minutes ago):
The Market Speaks by P. Krugs
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/opinion/krugman-the-market-speaks.html...
North Korean official newspaper : "War with South Korea is inevitable"
This is an honest question, not a troll:
Why would someone own silver when high quality fractional gold coins are widely available?
I'm asking because gold has always been the ultimate money. Silver, platinum and palladium are valuable and rare but have been secondary to gold as money throughout history.
I am tired tonight, so here is the short answer... As pms trade more for monetary reasons the gold/silver ratio will compress... At least to 16:1, likely 10:1, possilbly to 5:1...
hoarding metals is a sure way to attract a lot of government attention.
...and having a 401k or IRA isn't?
So is having a job.
Then pull a China and buy it covertly.
Gold is the 'money' of kings.
Silver is the 'money' of gentlemen.
Barter is the 'money' of peasants.
Debt is the 'money' of slaves.
Silver has historically been the metal for actively used money. The value of silver is better suited for that. It would not be very easy to use gold for normal trade. One ounce would be worth 1600 dollars, and even 1/10 ounce, about 160. Silver on the other hand about 30 and 3.
One reason for silver not being as actually used for parking wealth is space, and the fact that silver in a lot of places attracts VAT, gold does not.
I have a feeling that the value in dollars will be strictly temporary, but the purchasing power stable.
We are about to see prices in paper exploding.
"But when the value of money begins to erode more seriously and inflation makes front-page headlines..."
All of these bullish projections for gold and silver are based on screaming inflation or a collapse in the global economy. Doesn't look like that's going to happen any time soon.
And when it looks like it's going to happen anytime soon, it will be too late.
Take away the lies and fradulent statistics and I believe that would be NOW. Forgive me for not rehashing stats widely known, just consider food stamp use and labor participation rate.
I'll add that silver would be very handy for transactions of lesser amounts. One might not want to wave around even a tenth ounce gold Eagle where a few silver Eagles would do the job. Besides, I might wanna make change! Junk silver would fill that need.
The nurse in the article actually sees gold as unnecessary. Any price would be too high in that respect. When gold as seen as a requirement for self-preservation (preservation of wealth) then no price is out of range. It has infinite marginal utility. There is always room for one more ounce...
Silver, on the other hand, has a measurable marginal utility, which is determined individually. I know how much I'd need to make my way in a world devoid of the USD "trust" that is necessary for the USD to maintain purchasing power. Just enough to keep me from having to sell/trade any of the gold stash. It's the gold that allows one to weather the storm and come out sound on the other side. Silver is just the vehicle for making the trip.
well said Rock. Dorothy walked the yellow brick road with silver slippers.
'There is always room for one more ounce...'
...or gram
http://www.apmex.com/Product/19041/1_gram_Pamp_Suisse_Gold_Bar_9999_Fine...
I never buy junk silver. Considering that only 1-2% of westeners are stacking, and are even aware of what junk silver is, those future, panicked hoards of newbie stackers are going to be buying pure silver coins, rounds and bars. They want to see there phyzz marked with slogans such as ".9999 Fine Silver 1oz. Argent Pur", "1 Unze Feinsilber", or "1 Onze Plata Pur". And so do I. Lets say I'm selling a bottle of booze for one ounce of silver. Joe comes over and slaps a nice 2012 Maple Leaf down on the table. Jack on the other hand, pulls out a sack of dirty 40 % silver nickels and starts pushing a pile of this stuff towards me. Guess what. Joe is going to have a nice comfortable buzz later on and Jack is going to be filtering river water with his Katadyn. Yes, I know those nickels are 40%, but I have to check every damn one to make sure it is what it is. Then, not only do I have to push them onto someone else, I may have to prove to an uninformed vendor just what these nickles even are, all the while still having to compete against Joe and his Maples. It's not worth the hassle. I'll stick with the pure stuff.
Silver might become the first element to become "extinct" in the sense that there's no more of it. Silver, unlike gold and pgms, is consumed/ used, and the production of new silver is not keeping pace with the demand for it. A single wealthy buyer could purchase all the world's physical silver, and then there'd be none left for anything else.
We have no doubt in France about silver as a money as we use the same word "argent" both for money and silver
It's similar in German language; 'das Geld' means money ('das Gold' is gold).
That reminds me of a story when I was a little boy in the 1970s: after some efforts lasting many weeks, I had finally managed to extract, unnoticed by my parents, a lovely 50 Francs Silver coin (90% pure silver) from my piggybank (about $10 value in those days for the equivalent fiat note).
With it in my hand, I headed straight to the local shop to buy my 2 favourite items at the time: comics & chocolate. I had no idea if my coin would be accepted or not (it was a first-time effort) and the old man at the till looked surprised when I handed my payment ... but he took it and here comes the crunch: I will always remember that he went to his pocket/wallet to give me back my change (in fiat of course) rather than to the till!
It seemed a little odd at the time but I didn't care as I had my goodies. Once my theft had been uncovered I was given a thorough kicking for my action with the explanation that a certain type of money was worth more than the other. Fast forward to today and the last 4 decades of currency debasement and my parents' anger at the time makes complete sense.
If your parents are still alive, you could assuage your gilt and give it back to them!?
http://weightoncoin.co.uk/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=7_59&pr...
Edit: guilt, not gilt.
as that buyer starts to corner the silver the price would shoot to incredible levels, so i doubt he could buy ALL the silver that's out there.
premium over spot is higher for fractional gold coins, better to just get silver.
also, when PMs go up, silver goes up faster (this is related to comment above about GSR compressing)
so if you're bullish on PMs, you should be in silver.
Think that through for a second. "Premium over spot is higher for fractional gold coins..." That is true. What you are not allowing for is that the premium remains with the coin. It doesn't disappear just because you bought it. The spread for the premium expands / contracts with spot as well. When time comes to sell you will recover that premium that you held so dear. It's all part of the value. Buying fractionals with higher premiums over spot is not bad; it just takes a level head to avoid paying excessively. Same with any transaction.
Some people say they don't want to buy silver eagles because they are so much over spot. But if you use a good dealer he'll also pay over spot for them because he has to pay that to get them from the wholesalers. A dealer I've used usually has a 50 cent spread (less for large quantities) between his buy and his sell prices.
i have thought it through before, believe it or not.
and my guess is (yes, this is merely a guess), that when PM prices explode at some point due to supply issues, that the premium won't expand at the same rate as the underlying metal.
this is why i avoid numismatics, collectibles, and high premium coins, i try to focus on maximizing the metal itself, by buying 100oz bars, for example, not coins.
i have a few coins, too, as they will be good for barter in a currency collapse situation, but that's not primarily what i save in.
That not true. People believe it because gold has always been the money of princes and states, and people fixate on that. (Still statists in their secret hearts?)
The money of real people has always been silver (and copper). And only silver, with a foot in both worlds of money and manufacturing, is magic. It has been the most viciously suppressed by the reptilian overlords who destroy our future and feast upon our children.
When the controls fail and our people (as many of them as survive) are free, silver will go to at least 1/3 gold and stay there for years while people frantically try to find new sources.
Gold is good. But because of its special suppression under the Perversion, silver is about twenty times better.
Perhaps - but when was the last time gold / silver traded at 15 to 1 - certainly not in the modern economic paradigm. Why do you believe that a ratio that was most dominant in the midlle ages (and artificial in construction) will come to hold sway again?
Gmak, what was the GSR in the 1960s and 70s. It certainly wasn't 60:1
Perhaps gmak does not know that the 15 to 1 ratio is also the proportional distribution of silver to gold in the earth's crust. If you mine the earth for your metals, you will average fifteen ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. That does not support a 50:1 price ratio, especially when you discount that silver is mostly consumed while gold is mostly vaulted.
The eighteen seventies is not the middle ages.
Presently, we have no idea what the metals are worth. After one hundred years of supression and confiscation, how would we know? We can look at items they used to purchase and see similarities, but even in the last five hundred years, the ratio was often dictated by governments , leading to Gresham's observations.
Unfortunately, the only way a free market could exist for metals or anything else, would be the elimination of the State as we know it and central banking. I would suggest we would see many items take on new values we never expected.
The reason to hold physical asset classes is simple: your currency has no real value. Your currency is manipulated to provide a transfer of wealth and depreciate your labor value. As long as you hold your wealth in currency, you are being robbed and thanking them for their services.
When you go to work each day, do you not want to retain as much of your earnings as possible? Do you want the value of those earnings to be dependent upon central banking officials? Do you want your wealth exposed to banker irregularities, leverage bets and derivatives? Why would you want to share the risk when you are not allowed to play in the game?
This is the reason silver and gold are valuable. They are money mechanisms outside the control of the State. When a State becomes more totalitarian by the day, you must protect your family and yourself from its' predatory behavior.
100+++ Magical words my friend.
Dominant in the Middle Ages?
Man, you're about to get a rude awakening. For most of recorded history, the Chinese have had about one quarter of the worlds' human population under their rule...and for much of that time, silver was their currency of choice. In fact, the Chinese were first to experiment with paper currencies...and when that didn't work out so good(apparently both the Yuan and Ming dynasties suffered from a plague known as 'paper printing')they returned to....
silver, which had a higher value than gold much of the time. The whole Venetian gambit which took Marco Polo off to Sian was based on the arbitrage trade which exchanged European silver for Chinese gold. And until they dreamed up the opium scam, Europe was pretty much stripped of it's silver to pay for the Chinese silks and luxury goods which were so valued there.
Now, put on your thinking cap(but take off the moose rack first!)and ask yourself bud...whose got the momentum of the moment tradewise...and where is the wealth flowin? You may think the Chinks are dumb as rocks...but that's just part of their act...silver will trade again as money...once the East has it all. And it won't be no 'artificial' ratio it trades at either. Just compare provable stocks of silver to gold and get that pocket calculator working.
The opportunity to get a piece of the silver action that will rule the future is already gone..."you just don't know it yet!"
+joyful
Fiat money is a weapon that has decimated many empires.
No King ever sat on pile of paper, always a golden throne
perhaps the better question is
why WOULDN'T you own silver ?
Fractional gold holds merit certainly but take a look at the following criteria
1. Fractional markups
2. Historical GSR
3. 2700 year silver trading history
4. They don't call it the pound sterling for nothing
5. Just because Silver isn't monetized now doens't mean it won't be in the future
so if you don't have a large income and don't own any gold then AU fractionals make a lot of sense.However, Retail markup on gold fractionals charge 11% ~13% while a 10oz silver bar checks in around 3%.
Finally I have found that many in the gold alone group fail to take into account the billions of future consumers in East and South Asia. Yes they can and do purchase gold but I think there is space in any stackers pile for at least a little silver. China's extensive historical use of silver as money is a confirming indicator that those who dismiss silver simply don't grasp the significance of AG as a medium of exchange.
Your premiums are way off the charts. Most I paid was for kinebars, at ~6.6%; Perth Mint w/ cert goes for a third that - both 1oz bars. Silver in Europe pays VAT.
http://comparegoldprices.com/
https://comparesilverprices.com/
http://www.coininvestdirect.com/
Because relative to the price of gold, silver is a bargain as measured in FRNs. Also, the uses of gold outside of a monetary asset and for jewelry are limited. Silver has numerous industrial uses. Gold does have some unique properties, but is so expensive that other cheaper substitutes are used instead. Finally, silver has been used as a monetary asset in the past and likely will be in the future. There just isn't enough gold out there for it to be the only one.
To use an analogy, have you ever noticed that everyone wants to date the prom queen? But her equally pretty and much nicer sister doesn't get many calls. She's willing to try harder. And in the long run is a much better find.
I wish I could get mine from where it sank.
How nice of you to sacrifice your stash, in order that we might have cleaner water.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/august/nano-pure-water-083110.html
I need to win mine back at the poker table.
If anyones interested I'm selling a little bit to pay for a long needed vacation.
Generic 1 oz Silver Rounds $30 each
Roosevelt dimes $2.50 ea. or 50 coin roll $125
Washington quarters $6 ea. or 40 coin roll $240
Kennedy halves $12 ea. or 20 coin roll $240
I'm in Phoenix if you want to meet, or I can show you my ebay account with good reviews.
I bet you get inundated with people demanding to buy silver at a 1.2$ above spot price....
I bet you didn't know that tulving.com is buying mint boxes of silver eagles at $1.70 per ounce ABOVE spot. Right now. And selling them at spot + $2.49.
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
Not selling eagles, they were lost in a boating accident.
I made a good bet so I can afforrd to give a good deal.this
Is left over from the bet.
Feel free to contact me at bluesektor@hotmail.com
Btw what fucknuts down arrow a post that's on topic. You people are turning into huffpo poster!
MY SISTER MAKES $5000 A MONTH FROM HOME IN HER SPARE TIME.
YOU CAN TOO. CALL ME NOW TO FIND OUT HOW 1-800-FUCKNUT
Ring...ring..ring, hey fucknut, show me the money.
It wasn't a get rich quick scheme.
Cached out of my 401k and instead of paying the taxes right away I dumped it
into pm's on the summer lows. Waited, waited, waited till tax season and seasonal highs
and dumped. Made enough to pay off my liability and then some.
Dickheads like you talking shit need to go back to your mommy's basement.
Last time I sold a 100g silver bar on ebay I got spot + about 100%
Last time I sold a 2 gram gold KINEBAR on ebay I got spot + about 100%
Not everyone can easily walk into a bank in their pwn country and get these things.
Incidentally, I sent the silver to Ireland and the gold to Turkey.
#result
Bullshit. I sold on ebay and you don't get spot + 100%
Maybe 20-40 depending on type of buillion. But after 10% ebay fees,
4% paypal fees and shipping ( ebay now charges shipping fees on top of final value fees ) your almost below spot.
I bet you get inundated with people demanding to buy silver at a 1.2$ above spot price....
ive always looked at roosevelt dimes as my daily nic fix , even in the blackest of markets. man, silver is reaaaally cheap. 125$ for almost a years worth of nicotine .... i'll need that more than a nice hand taiored suit.
Keep Stacking ! (while you still can)
Damn straight Fix!
Wow this article really sucked.
A RN says she can't afford gold, so let's all buy silver on the assumption that we can all sell to her. Maybe she buys facefart instead? Should we all buy facefart?
yes fonz the logic is broken and CR should be ashamed they printed it
Another piece of pump and dump. Despite all the cheerleading from shills like Jim Sinclair, silver can not even go back to $30 and gold $1600. All I see is that precious metals are about to fall from the current level. $1800 and $35? That's a pipe dream. Precious metals are going to crash on Friday once the NFP confirms the strong recovery of the economy.
The strong recovery of the economy?
Wow. people really have gone totally fucking insane....
It's hard to resist the siren call of the MSM and the FED's $85 Billion per month of cotton candy.
it's one thing to say don't fight the fed. it is totally another to actually believe it.
The Dow has made new highs, which is already a confirmation.
ROFLMAO
Confirmation of what, that the FED has blown $6+ Trillion of taxpayer money and the future of the nation rewarding the banks and corporations for fucking over the economy and that Jon Corzine is still free for vaporizing $1.2 Billion of private investor money with the help of the J.P. Morgue?
Martin Armstrong also claims that there is NO shortage of gold. Just as he said, the total debt increased dramatically in the 1980s but gold and silver still got annihilated
Listen up, cupcake. I don't need to hear Marty jabber on about the 1980's. I was there, raising three kids and stacking when I could. Gold and silver fell because Paul Volcker took the prime rate to 21%, and long Treasurys yielded 16%. Think that's about to happen now?
Lesson #1: As long as Treasury real yields are negative, gold goes up. I know you don't have any idea what that means, so I'll explain it for you: When the real rate of inflation is higher than the bond's nominal interest rate, you get NEGATIVE income from investing in Treasury bonds. That means holding bonds cannibalizes your capital.
People don't like to see their life savings shrinking away. That's when they start buying gold and silver. The lag between Fed accomodations and the resultant headline inflation is 18-24 months. That means the fun is about to start.
Once again, I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.
+1 & then (should you sell) you get to pay capital gains taxes for the privilege!! Oh the humanity!! ;)
Paul Krugman won't even up-arrow Eigen.
Digital high five!
to infinity and beyond for the 'italisized' understand....
Sometimes getting older shows off its real beauty, the difference between owning the catwalk and owning the building the catwalk is in.
Yep. All the same, I'd trade it all in a second to be a young bronc'in buck with a white carnation and a pickup truck again.
+1
Key point made is the statement
"The lag between Fed accomodations and the resultant headline inflation is 18-24 months"
In our wonderful instantaneous internet world, people only see about 1 second ahead. If its not right in front of them, they can't comprehend it. Plus, they believe MSM since most are piped in and fed MSM intravenously via their iProducts.
Current inflation on things we use everyday (food, fuel) has continued to creep. The invisible tax will go from a creep, to a crawl to a full bore run and those who prepared will tread water. Those who didn't will drown.
Good point, rover. I might have mentioned that the Fed believes, as most economists do, that the delay between Fed interventions and their effects in the economy is six to twelve months. That's a grievous error, as it encourages the Fed to over-inflate, thinking there are no significant consequences.
Three or four years ago, a leading market technician decided to determine the real lag, so he dug up all Fed policy accommodation data and CPI data and correlated them. He found that it took typically 18 to 24 months, and sometimes as long as 30 months, before the maximum effects were felt in the form of headline inflation. So we're beginning to feel the effects of QE2, and that is part of the reason oil is staying over $90 and gasoline near record highs despite ample inventories.
And it's the whole reason Maker's Mark started watering down their hooch. Margin Pressure, bitchez.
Eigen, buddy... You are embarrassing yourself... seriously... It is tempting to believe you are just attempting to provide comic relief...
eigenvalue, I've got an eigenvector for you. Angle is at pi/2. (Math geeks will get it.)
Physicists too
Stoned out freaks who just dropped purple microdot with a bong hit chaser too...
But how many understand a purple microdot?!
It was the first and only LSD I ever popped at University. Next thing I remember, we were walking barefoot on silky smooth painted road lines (!) at 5 in the morning drinking milk from a bottle that a milkman gave us (out of sympathy no doubt).
Purple Mikes bitchez!
Cheers!
Fred
I solved the particle physics aspects of the Big Bang [drawn with a pen on the top of a Morton's salt jar]... But I later went to sleep, woke up about a day & a half later & forgot the whole concept... The only evidence that remained was a scribbly looking design on that salt jar for months thereafter...
~~~
I guess I should have sent it to Cal Tech for more study...
could have just strobed it there
Stop by my biz sometime....ANYTIME. You could park a fucking tour bus inside and no one would get hurt. You would hack up product, but at least I could claim insurance and make up for the losses on the year.
Does bernanke pay you to post?
The DOW is a manipulated POS. Check out the charts with this article:
POMO saves equities reversal with $5 billion injection
By Chris Vermeulen | March 7, 2013
The S&P 500 was very close to reversing down last week, but with POMO's largest scheduled injection of money for February of more than $5 billion dollars sent stocks soaring jamming stocks back up into its uptrend.
"The Dow has made new highs, which is already a confirmation."
I put hot air into a balloon and it made new size records compared to it's pre-inflated state. I was loving the state of that balloon, so big, so full of hot air, it was great to look at and admire, i felt really proud so i added more to it....
...but then, for no apparent reason at all - it burst in my face! and the cat shat on the floor in fright.
Now i don't have a nice balloon to pump hot air into and there's cat shit everywhere.
Stay away from Slurm®, drink Botweiser™ or Olde Fortran™ instead! :>D
hey you stupid fucking asshole...
it's true.
you can't fix stupid.
You are going to get killed with down votes that is the price of
Telling a bunch of peppers the world ain't gonna end
The Jalapeno's are certain the whole world will end, but the Serrano's and Habanero's see the Southern Hemisphere surviving.
You rang the Bell with that one
Sincerest, most heartfelt golf clap for both you & ebworthen. Cannot stop chuckling.
Wouldn't you like to be a pepper too?
You Doubleminted the same, without correcting it...just sayn
so hot, he had to spit it out twice!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfOdWSiyWoc
Broke the board
guess it wasn't meant for pavement
that's what the tombstone on me grave chant
You are going to get killed with down votes that is the price of
Telling a bunch of peppers the world ain't gonna end
(p.s. - The red and green bell peppers have no clue and are still buying Apple and Facebook)
It does for those Peppers in my fajitas and salsas
That statement is so moronic Eigen, I can only assume that your goal is to incite criticism, so I'm not falling for your mind tricks.
Have a nice day!
Franken-Eigen, son of Franken-MDB.
Moronic not...the guy is actually a savant(if perhaps if the dwarf-idjut variety),
Mata-gringos are lined up to take down any man amongst us who dares to creep outta line from the the BigEnchilada in DC's dictates, and the Scotch Bonnets are scheming to scorch any signs of resistance from amongst any human beans what wanna get off the plantation...not to mention the Pepper Squashers DHS just bought to roll through the streets with.
Good code work Neethie...keep reporting back in as things develop out there.
Seriously? You actually think we are in an economic recovery? Hahahaha!
I don't care who you are, that is pretty damn funny.
You might want to lay off sucking the government's tit for a while and sober up.
Just sayin...
Yes, but "we're in recovery" is blackwhite doublespeak for "we're f*cked"
Hey dummy, you buy physical as a long-term wealth preservation and not your idiotic "Pump and Dump" scheme. Geez, some dummies are as lame as those zombies on "The walking Dead". You still cling to your fiat that has lost 97% of it's purchasing power since 1913 and we'll see very soon who will be dropping change in who's "Help-Me" cup. BTW, that "Change" I'll be dropping in that cup will be real value change/coins...
...
I tend to agree. Silver can't hold 29 at all. Don't know about the "strong" economy, but it's chugging along just fine for now at low inflation. Not a good environment for metals investing, outside of copper.
I do not understand Why these ASS CLOWNS even come on this site? Specific name dropping now. The trolls are out in full force. That is how I know we are winning. The powers that be can Manipulate the prices of PMS for a little while longer. Let them!! Gives us the greatest opportunity to stack on the cheap. As for me, I do not pay attention to the day to day noise put out by the propaganda spin machine. PM will decouple from the paper market. You can down arrow me all you want, but in the not so distant future your TV's will come on with an emergency broadcast message from the President of the USA. He will state the the USA is now reverting back on a gold standard! At that time gold will be well over $4000 an once and will be held at that price.
From the article:
Yet, I am willing to bet 1 silver eagle that said RN has an iPad, iPod, iPhone, iPhone cell contract, cable or satellite tv and or radio, and when all of that planned obsolescence money vampire crap is added up, she could probably afford at LEAST a 1/10 ounce or 1/4 ounce gold coin per month.
It's all about priorities, much like the album title by the Dead Kennedy's, Give me Convenience or Give me Death.
Same thing i'm struggling with currently trying to get my family on board. Yes they have all of those things, yes they "can't afford gold"...
Honestly, am I the ONLY person who can see the profound idiocy and complete illogic in the statement "I can't afford gold"?
Since when is gold sold in some sort of large and magically quantized units, of which no subdivision is possible? Maybe a person cannot afford A CERTAIN AMOUNT of gold, but pretty much every citizen of the planet can afford SOME quantity of gold, however small.
"I can't afford gold" is equivalent, in sheer stupidity, to the oft-heard claim that "gold is heavy". So a tenth-ounce gold coin (roughly the same weight as a standard facial tissue) is heavy? Of course, what these uneducated idiots really mean is "Gold is dense". Not, however, as dense as they are.
I can't afford NOT to have gold.
Well, for starters she works in the health terrorism industry, and will soon fall victim to the same maladies she is administering. Health terrorists are almost as brainwashed as govt terrorists. I'm sure she can't afford raw milk, real butter, homemade yogurt, or native chicken eggs either.
I'm sorry our industry has a bad reputation. Quite deserved I,sadly,must admit. A few of us have taken the red pill and are crawling out. Please believe me, it is extremely hard for me to walk into my lab everyday because I have woken up and yet I am still working in an industry I have no allegiance and no faith. I feel like a hypocrite. I have a lot invested in my career and in this job climate I'm afraid to throw it all away and try for something more meaningful. I guess it's easier for a camel to go through an eye of a needle.
Miffed:-)
Miffed, you are not alone. Some MDs have gone so far as to license themselves as "ecclesiastical medical counselors" (in addition to medical license) in order to protect themselves, while they sincerely heal people. Some endodontists are becoming traitorous "biological dentists" undoing the damage of fellow endodontists. You may well be performing tests for these people. Don't throw your career away. Have compassion for the sick, and God will be with you.
Thanks Raymond. I had forgotten where I am doesn't lend itself to this type of knowledge. I am like a foot soldier in the heat of battle assuming the battle is lost. I can't see the larger view of the general who sees the war may be won. Thanks for giving me some hope. I am grateful every day for my life, even though it can't always be seen here. With what I see every day I can't help but have compassion. I must not allow my sadness cloud it. Yes, god does work mysteriously and it's hard for me to give up my illusion I have control in anything outside of myself. My cross to bear. Peace to you.
Miffed:-)
Akak, I could not have said it better myself. Bravo.
"Of course, what these uneducated idiots really mean is "Gold is dense". Not, however, as dense as they are."
hahaha, nailed it.
+100 for the DK reference. Jello Biafra once referred to one of my dear Senators as Dianne bitch butt-licker Feinstein and I've always had a bit of a man crush on him for that.
So much of what he said 20 to 30 years ago could be said today and be just as valid, if not more so.
California Uber Alles
"And then buy the grossly undervalued miners."
If things get bad enough I think mine nationalization will be the first big step governments will take.
You don't need to "think" mines will be nationalized. They are always nationalized during shortages.
I wonder if people know they sell gold in denominations smaller than 1 oz.
Most people don't know that the U. S. Mint even makes any size or denomination. When I show them one they think it's a foreign coin. It's fun to watch their eyes get as big as saucers when they heft a one-ouncer.
One can get gold in 5 gram sizes. Let me do the 5th grade math for her:
At $1600/oz, that's $1600 x (5/31.1), or about $257. If she can't get it from a nearby coin shop, she can go online to Kitco.com (the place that recently canned one of its annoying reporters).
DIGRESSION: Both her and Kitco are in the same country (Canada), so she could not have it easier. I'm guessing she's in BC or Ontario. Next time she goes on 'vacation' (that she can afford), tell her to go to Montreal, to visit that PM store, and enjoy French food. And streets milling with life at 1:00 AM downtown. Sorry Toronto, but Montreal is 'cooler' in the summer. Those French women know how to dress in the summer: Ooh la, la! >:-), Compared to Toronto feminists. But it's definitely much cooler in the winter... brrrr. I still digress, but I've become very partial to Vancouver, Seattle and Portland as year-round places (weather+lifestyle) with real seasons, but w/o the temp extremes. And Oregonians/Portlanders tell me, that they want flaky Californians to pass straight through OR/Portland, and go to WA/Seattle. Like the sign said: "Don't Californicate Oregon". Although it has an interesting pop. mix that people call Oregano and Oregun. Not my line, but funny.
Beyond this advice, I/we can't help her. Like the man (Imminent Curcible) said: "I can't understand it for you".
more pollyanna "silver good",
I thought so too until i had so much of it boat sank.
yet the masses of humans in markets have no peripheral vision for silver, just groupon and facebukk.
so ask yourself, what will make them appreciate white metal that just sits there not entertaining them?
Probably when they see Groupon offering a Red Lobster coupon that says Just $299 for a Shrimp Plate. Cocktail Sauce only $20 extra.
I think I need to get one of those drug smuggler subs to find all of the siliver and gold you guys keep losing in boating accidents.
I think the smartest thing to do when the economy crashes is to bury all your silver and pretend that you're poor and struggling too. People may be so desperate for tangible wealth that they would do terrible things.
Way ahead of ya....'57 farmhouse wafting woodsmoke, '98 dented corolla (37 mpg) -no smoke. Cozier and happier than ever before. Not that there's anything to hide....rehabed from an expensive massage for silver addiction.
"Oh, gold. That's exciting. But it's too expensive for me. I can't afford it."
It's not that it's too expensive it's that it's too illiquid. If blue collar working class folks knew they could hit the drive thru and deposit their paycheck at the gold union (hypothetical) and come back the next day and withdraw cash against that gold to spend around town then that is when the pm's really catch fire but that will never happen unless large groups join together nationally and fight to free gold from the restrictions/taxes etc that the banksta niggas have smothered it with to prevent working folk from protecting/defending themselves against these dirty greedy bankstas. Folks up in arms because the government wants to take their guns away but could give a shit less about having their savings taken away from them. Gold stops the theft in it's tracks
We all know about the FRN cartel, and that all cartels hate competition. Of any kind. Expect them to handle threats to their 'business' model accordingly. Even so, ppl will do what ppl need to do... Keep stacking & pepping. And pass the Good News of Just Currency.
Long live Silver! It's holding up mighty well, Pilgrims! It's (xag) , great at keeping "Where Wolf" banksters off your ass!
LEAD is better. Still silver is good.
Price of some types of ammo has more than doubled in the past year. Too bad mine was stolen from the trunk of my car.
Nice! Unfortunate trunk theft incident.
Don't those storm clouds always have a silver lining?
I wouldn't touch the miners with a ten foot pole. Their paper will be just as worthless in a SHTF scenario with bank AND STOCK MARKET closures.
I got all fancy with miners last May thinking I'd rock it. Never again. Physical yo'!
Miners will bump up against the moon...
for a brief, and unannounced moment in time. Then go the way of all flesh. The moneyboyz will make out like bandits. It will be truly a 'flash in the pan'...to spot it, you'll need to
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.10/thinklikeabanker.html
"But when the value of money begins to erode more seriously and inflation makes front-page headlines, and my nurse turns to precious metals to gain some semblance of lifestyle protection, what is she going to buy? If she can't "afford" gold now, it won't be any "cheaper" later."
The nurse? My wife.
The PM buyer? Her hubby for years now.
All I know is that I sold silver Puts with a strike of $26 three weeks ago and I'm still waiting for one of the naysayers or capitulators who claim silver is going to crash to exercise the options. Stop flapping your gums and hand it over to me you stupid jacka$$.
As the author states, he will make his case not on reasoning but on psychological......Yes, that's quite a way to appeal to all the irrational investors.
Let's consider the facts: estimated above ground silver stox ~700 mil oz. That is about what the above ground stox were in 2001. Price has appreciated from $5 to $30 to reflect what since S/D is still in balance? Probably to reflect sympathy with gold which is the driving market (in the PM complex) in the last decade. Gold/silver ratio = 55 vs 2001 gold/sil ratio = 55. Jeff Clark may be a sharp guy but this article doesn't come close to making his point.
"to reflect what since S/D is still in balance?"
I guess the dog ate your homework. You obviously have no idea what's been happening in the silver markets. Industrial/fabrication demand is expected to consume total world mining output by the end of 2015, leaving nothing for investment demand.
You're being blatantly rational when the moment clearly calls for some good ol irrational exuberance...
the man is correct...silver has roped down in sympathy with gold...it's called the WT7 effect.
One drone coming right up. U betta shut dat mouf.
Can I just say? I f'n love ZH.
Agree with Jeff -- but only in the context of balanced portfolio of primary, secondary and tertiary assets. and diversified geographically and by sector.
That way, the long-term wealth growth has the bet odds. Unless you are the one doing the manipulating, you're literally gambling/speculating on any short-term bets. E.g. mining juniors are some of the most volatile. Buy whatever you can afford to stay put for a while -- whether a little or a lot. Either way, it's a personal decision.
If the death crunch on juniors continues, we may see some consolidation -- in which case I would not want to see my stock end up with the ore: at the bottom of the shaft. The 'bang' you're looking for may not be the one you get. And other mine stock choices might be wiser and more likely to be profitable, even if less promising.
People need to use more math and less 'gut' in their investments. Use Decision Tree Analysis tools. Eg. The expected ROI needs to be multiplied by the Probability of the event occurring. For instance...
If choice A has has an expected return of $10,000 in one year, but the probability (p) is 0.1 (10% odds), then choice A is worth $1,000 ($10,000x0.1). If choice B has an expected return of $4,000 and a value of p=0.3 (30% odds), the choice B is worth $1,200 ($4,000x0.3). One needs to assign values of "p" beforehand, while still relatively objective. People do this intuitively anyway, but doing it this way forces one to really think deep & hard about true odds. It's not perfect, but better than nothing (i.e. better than your emotions or gut, or opinion/advice of a mining stock salesman).
For what it's worth, apart from having a well-balanced portfolio, within the PM section it makes sense to have a mix of Ag, Au, and Pt and shift (speculate) with a portion of that mix. For example, those who bought Pt last summer (at $1550), when it was cheap relative to gold, could have made a nice profit is they sold recently (at $1730), when it cost more than gold. Then, using these profits, one could have bought more Ag and Au.
But that requires some active trading, not buy, hold & pray. One size (solution) does not fit all, no matter what our own preferred size (solution) is.