Guest Post: North Korean "Insanity" Part of Geopolitical Game
Submitted by Jen Alic of OilPrice.com,
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be colorful, but he isn’t crazy.
There is logic behind the intensified war rhetoric, and while it may be convenient for the American public to believe that they are about to be attacked unprovoked by the unhinged dictator of an eerily isolated country, the truth of the matter is that the US and its allies have been doing some offensive posturing that has Pyongyang very much on edge.
North Korea on Tuesday threatened to attack the US and South Korea with “lighter and smaller nukes”. This threat has prompted South Korea to threaten to strike North Korea’s military command if “provoked” and the UN to move closer to slapping new sanctions on Pyongyang’s banking sector and diplomats.
The sanctions resolution was introduced by the US and China and specifically targets North Korean bankers and overseas cash mules. It also targets diplomats and seeks to lend added strength to air and sea cargo inspections going in and out of North Korea.
While mainstream media outlets are wont to describe North Korea’s rhetoric as increasingly bold, the threats and recent tests of long-range rockets and nuclear weapons are not the result of bravado, rather of fear.
The US and its East Asia allies (namely South Korea and Japan) have been preparing for an offensive on North Korea ever since the death of Kim Jong-il. They see a window of opportunity in the instability of the fragile succession.
Pyongyang has no choice now but to rattle its sabers--and rattling them at traditionally quiet South Korea is the most effective strategy. This is where North Korea can do the greatest damage, and if it feels that a US offensive is imminent, South Korea will come under attack. At the same time, an attack on South Korea will be the final justification for an all-out US-led offensive on North Korea.
Right now, Pyongyang is hedging its bets on whether the US is willing to sacrifice its ally to this conflict.
Is North Korea confident enough in its nuclear capabilities to act as a deterrent to a US-led regime change effort? The nuclear tests are meant to demonstrate that confidence, but they also demonstrate fear.
The North Korea saga has been a long one, and threats have waxed and waned, always with various talking heads tossing about the idea of a major regional war. What’s different this time is that the US has clearly gone on the offensive and pushed Pyongyang into a dangerous corner. But there’s another potential geopolitical twist to this saga …
Sending NBA hero Denis Rodman to Pyongyang to entertain Kim Jong-un—a die-hard basketball fan—was said to be a goodwill gesture from Washington. Clearly, Washington’s policy decisions are nearly as colorful as Pyongyang’s.
Denis Rodman, oddly enough, is a tool (in the instrumental sense of the word). This is where it gets interesting. The US can take its preparations for an offensive against North Korea to a certain point. This point must be impeccably balanced with the aim of upping the ante in negotiations with Pyongyang. Once this is achieved, Washington’s new “pivot” towards Asia plans can enter another more delicate phase—a phase that recognizes the geopolitical importance of North Korea as an ally against China.
Certainly, this must be what the most cynically astute minds in Washington are thinking. At the same time that the US and South Korea undertake carefully designed war games that simulate an offensive on North Korea, Washington sends in Denis Rodman in a push and pull effort.
China has to play along for now because it understands that a nuclear weaponized North Korea could be a formidable blackmailer. North Korea could capitalize on this new geopolitics, or it could choose to attack South Korea and start off a major war. The ball, it would seem, is in Denis Rodman’s court.
(12 votes)
- advertisements -
»
- 16970 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Similar Articles You Might Enjoy:
- Guest Post: A Roadmap For American Grand Strategy Part 1 (Of 3)
- Guest Post: Behind and Beyond The Sinking of The Cheonan
- Guest Post: A Roadmap For American Grand Strategy Part 3 (Of 3)
- Stratfor's Geopolitical Intelligence Guidance For The Week Of February 20, 2011
- The Hunt For Red Pyongyang: South Korea On Alert For Naval Attack After "Losing" 4 North Korean Subs
Ooooooh [shouts the pain stricken player who is sprawling on the floor & clutching his arm in agony]
~~~
IT's MY LEG!
Kim should've insisted upon Sean Penn.
Nice posts . Francis and Non-app. On my mobile and caught a bit of browser lockup.
Barack Hussein Obama... New starting #FORWARD for the Washington Generals...
The wealthiest cities in the United States. The 5 richest cities in America - Slide Show - MarketWatch
Ever heard the term "NIGGER RICH" ? It's an equal race employer. That clown in the "White House" is drunk with power.
The biggest global event that's actually happening, rather than being speculated about as a "could happen soon," continues to be some torrid debasement of the JPY & GBP; the former isn't that suprising to me (at least the trend isn't), but speed at which the GPB has plunged is (maybe I'm just not tuned in enough or miscalculating the signals that have been sent).
These two currencies are interesting for many reasons, not the least of which are that the yen was the linchpin of the global carry trade for so many years, and that the GBP had been extremely stable (up to now) even during the time that the € has been all over the board (since 1999).
Might be go time between Communism and Capitalism:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2013/03/dow-14000-world-war-three-i...
http://youtu.be/NZUuOA2lR-M
"Probably they have a vague idea of change, they don't dream of radical upheaval, because they have no frame of reference"
""Of course many people do have discontent but what counts is that you have to show the power of people. And the system is so repressive and so controlling, it is hard for people to show what they think."
"The yearning for democracy must be very strong in order for radical change, its still very low among people."
"middle class, intelligent people have to be involved in the movement for change. The leadership for a movement is very important. But those kind of people are not interested in revolting"
"The power of the regime is so great, so solid, people cannot do much, in reality it is a feudal society. It is not a democratic republic"
"The elite know what is going on outside but the majority of people have no idea. So the majority of them probably believe that their way of life is quite normal and people on the outside have worst life."
"My older sister, who lives in the capital, she does get to read foreign newspapers. People in the highest class they do have an idea about what's going on, but they are not the ones who want changes."
Is this guy talking about USA or North Korea????
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/11/21/north-korea-similar-uk-defect...
He's in Venezuela. Pall Bearer 4 I beleive
Sean Penn was officially on Chavez death watch and not available. Besides, he has to gear up for the big funeral scene, where he can grab a best supporting actor nod. Sean's turn to go eat N Korean dog, next time. Of course, you have to keep Mike Vik at bay with the mention of dogs.....
It's like watching a cartoon.
All I know is the price of Kim-Chi has gone too high.
I love that stuff, but $6.00 a jar makes it a more rare treat than I would wish.
Kim and his buddies will posture and threaten until they get $1 Billion of U.S. taxpayer money in "Food and Assistance for the People of North Korea."
No, they aren't stupid, and us U.S. Taxpayers are always somebody's fool.
Squeaky wheel gets the grease.
That sounds about right. After all, that has been the playbook from North Korea for as long as I've been alive.
U
Six bucks is a lot?
Fuck, poverty must be a drag. Have you considered getting a job or something?
But anyway Kim chi is rotting cabbage. Nasty shit if there ever was some. If you are poor it must leave a lot of free time while people are out working and such. All you need to do is plant some garbage pails in the dirt for a few months, stuff the with cabbage and maybe dead rodents of your choosing. Voila Kim fucking Chee old country style.
Might even be able to sell some in the side and get off the welfare.
It's fermented "j ballz" and good for your gut.
Its bad for your love life!
Its just a bunch of scrubby broke ass HB-1 immigrants here now. This site is starting to blow. The quality has gone way down.
$6 is a lot when I used to pay $3 for it.
I vote with what I buy, whether I can afford it or not.
Rotting cabbage is delicious, loaded with Vitamin C and fiber and beneficial bacteria and enzymes.
If I were on Welfare or Unemployment why would I work to pay taxes that go to Muslim rebels in Syria and Egypt or to banks and bankers as a reward for fucking over the middle class and the future of the country?
Health Magazine voted Kimchi one of the 5 top healthy foods jballz. Full of stuff you should eat to change your rotting attitude.
EB- try this
http://www.amazon.com/Caldwell-Vegetable-Starter-Culture/dp/B0031KN5OY
Its not exactly Kimchi, but its pretty close and with some tweaking you would get it exactly how you like it.
Hey thanks for that. I brew my own beer and make pickled eggs and love to cook, will have to give that a try.
I make kimchi every year. I've got 3 kinds of napa cabbage in the greenhouse now. Can't wait to make a big batch. I might try that starter mix. I find that if I use plenty of garlic and cayanne pepper and salt no problem with mold etc.
I spilled a pot of kimchi on me once. It smelled like hot ass and dirty cabbage. Vile food.
Does he even rike basketbar? I bet he's just ronery, and this is a cry for herp. Who rearry wants nucrear war?
Fuck you Hans Brix.
+1 for team America World Police reference
Matttttt. Daaaa. Muunnnn.
"oh yeah? I have Arec Bardwin"
Kim dude should give HSBC a call. They'll help.
Why do you say that? N. Korea has no opium or other valuable hard drugs that I am aware of?
The US and its East Asia allies (namely South Korea and Japan) have been preparing for an offensive on North Korea ever since the death of Kim Jong-il. They see a window of opportunity in the instability of the fragile succession.
This statement isn't credible without further proof. Really? An "offensive"? Ya mean, a MILITARY offensive? Where's the evidence? The situation in N. Korea reminds me what Shaw said about Ireland,"The situation in Ireland is critical, but not serious." I find it difficult to put any credence in statements that an "offensive" is planned without more evidence--and STRONG evidence. Please provide.
Aegis system war games every few months? (Aegis combat system, used by the South Korean, Japanese, and the US is a collaborative real-time battle system that can control multiple platforms from a command information centre). I don't know whether that is strong evidence, but the bitching from the North indicate they believe it to be strong evidence of military offensive preparation.
I really do not know whether it is being dusted off, but you can bet your arse that there are at least half a dozen strategic war plans for the invasion of North Korea somewhere in the bowels of the Pentagon.
Do you think China and Russia would allow it? Any hint of real invasion, and China would intantly be all over the place with Russia's support.
I think you are correct. Russia has already drawn the line at Syria - which is fast becoming a proxy battlefield. The Kremlin is telling anyone who cares to listen that they are willing to go "hot" to stop another US-led war. As for China, unless something has drastically changed in their policy towards NK, they are highly likely to go to war over a NK invasion. I think it is a little complicated because SK has very close economic ties with China now (Don't we all these days?), so there is no real appetite for war in the area. Just a lot of outside pressure to change the status quo and cause a conflict to deflect the public from real problems at home and make the war profiteers happy.
Syria is really interesting in that it is a proxy for many issues.. Iranian influence, Hezbollah, the Russians New Cold War, the unwillingness of civilized countries to act in the face of genocide, and lessons of the Arab Spring. Yes, Al Assad is a really bad guy who gladly slaughters his own people, but as we've seen in Egypt - will his replacement be better? If Obama were nearly as effective a thug as Putin is, he'd go in there and take out Assad. (Which would just create another Arab Spring, rinse lather repeat.) I dunno how Russia would react, but I'm hardly opposed to giving them a stake for "good behavior." It's always about oil anyway, I doubt they care who is in charge.
North Korea is a little different. It's just purely a criminal enterprise. Nukes, drugs, counterfeiting. There is no legit anything in NK. I think China has put up with them for so long because they have the same world view, but maybe thats changing as they start to see the value of Intellectual Property.. (Or just stealing less)
I will not be vacationing at either.
USA #1 in nukes
USA #1 in drug consumption
USA #1 in world scale counterfeiting via Federal Reserve
how is N Korea different than USA? They don't have hollywood marketing PR machine. Other than that upper class in N. Korea soon will live much better than low class in USA.
woody likes
The interesting thing about Syria is that the Alawis aren't really Muslims; they act as such, but actually are closer to Christians, and will be replaced by fanatic Salafists - not looking good for peace in the region, nor Israel...
More than Russia, I don't think China would accept US troops anywhere near their border. And both of them have close commercial relations with SK so probably would view well a reunion of Korea (and probably more than the US, who would most likely lose their bases there, as part of any deal), but not if said reunion was viewed as a US victory (and their defeat).
Under any scenario, the Norks can turn Seoul into a flaming hell-hole quicker than the fat boy King can eat a box of twinkies. So, in no f-ing scenario do the Roks or US want to start another pennisula war. They just want to keep crazy Uncle Eddie drunk and happy up north while the rest of the world enjoys gettin' laid and gettin' paid. Who cares about several million innocent and shrinking peasants are eating treebark.
As for the Norks, it seems their entire economy is built upon a mob-style protection racket: "dat's a nice shiny house you got there...be a shame if sumthin were to happen to it..."
But, if you're that worried about it, have no fear. If you were right, China would quickly and far more efficiently decapitate the DPRK government and replace it with a more compliant lot rather than waiting for the Americans and the Roks to unite the pennisula on their terms.
does north korea have a central bank run by hofjuden? no? then n.k. is going down. just like the 'other' countries that didnt have hofjuden c.b.'s and had gold, but no longer after they were introduced to democracy
they executed their central banker and reset the currency 100 to 1.
that's real.
Like venezueula, nk has legitimate gripes, but their prescription is wrong. Poke in the eye bullshit is good enough to get the blood boiling. Go fuck yourselves, Nwo bitches. Kissinger's "a world restored" is an apology for this sort of shit. Go fuck yourselves.
Cunny, something tells me that you have a higher understanding of "said" subject. You are a great teacher. ;-)
Yc, thanks for the acknowledgement.
My ma thesis (feces) was a repudiation of Kissinger's. Metternich was a PIECE OF SHIT, who Kissinger put on a pedestal. If you read the sources, all the letters, you will understand.
Kissinger became Kissinger for a reason.
Be ready for the fight, amigo.
Kissinger is still throwing turds. His thesis of "globalism" is a bit antiquated. The guy was (goyim)><(jew) liaison in his time.
I respect the elders, if the elders respect me. ( I understand cunny) ;-)
[ nmewn] is jewish, and has a brilliant mind.
Rock on "Silver dream Machine" David Essex film. Kissinger, go fuck yourself, tyrannical turd. Sorry mate, I'm shit faced and wound up. Metternich was a piece of shit. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. I have nothing against jews, but have eternal enmity to know-it-all tyrant apologists.
Kim Jong-un, it's not nice to fool with Bananamerica.
<Take two ICBM's and don't bother calling me in the morning.>
Fire a nuke you all die.
All of you. You want a good life, get your ass over to Canada and do a pick up proper. -Cernunnos
Invite me over, I am not of the others. I will roll the bones.
A short guy who butchers with impunity threatening a tall guy who butchers with impunity...all we need is Biden and his shotgun to sort this one out.
I'm not sure it would be a good idea for anyone to let Joe loose with a loaded anything. Talk about a loose cannon!
During the Korean war the US killed 30% of the North Korean population. 30% !!!
They have memories.
Their only choice is bluster given the US pivot to Asia. North Korea is definitely scared of an outside attack.
Same goes for Iran. Iran has not attacked a country in hundreds of years. A nuclear option gives these threatened countries some thoughts of defense.