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Howard Marks' Full Presentation On "Investing In Uncertain Times"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the following presentation, given by Howard Marks - the world's largest distressed debt investor - he warns of the perils of "investing in uncertain times." As Reuters notes, he fears the "unsound practices" from before the financial crisis are creeping back into credit markets, with private equity firms bidding increasingly high prices for companies. Marks points out the ease with which lowly rated companies were issuing debt this year, how companies were paying out record dividends to their shareholders and the increasingly high debt-to-equity multiples private equity firms were paying for companies amid a resurgence in deals. "We have a world in which nobody is thinking bullish. Everybody's worried and yet people are acting bullish," and predicts a looming "shake-out" in the hedge fund industry as he asks rhetorically, "today there are 8,000 hedge funds. Are there really 40,000 exceptional people (working for hedge funds)?" In conclusion, Oaktree Capital's founder warns that investors, in their search for returns, were becoming overly confident while the economic background was still gloomy.

 

Full presentation here.

Howard Marks - Investing in Uncertain Times by

 

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Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:00 | 3309237 Banksters
Banksters's picture

2nd half recovery.   Cough...   

 

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:05 | 3309240 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Am I missing something, or is there NO volume on ES?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:06 | 3309257 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Hft churn.   Fucking unbelievable...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:09 | 3309271 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I don't know.

If there was a lot of churn, you'd expect to see HIGH volume.

What I'm seeing is the lowest run rate in a LONG time.  I have my intra-day charts set to go back many months, and I don't see a run-rate this LOW!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:16 | 3309294 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

It's just the calm before the storm my friend.  Relax and enjoy it while it lasts.

Maybe tomorrow's employment report will shake things up a little.

Personally, my major worry is that I might not be able to buy PM at these low prices much longer.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:19 | 3309304 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

It will be a mild beat or in-line - good for another 75 points

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:20 | 3309306 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

This is BULLISH right?

 

The United Nations Security Council slapped new sanctions on North Korea over its latest nuclear test hours after Pyongyang threatened to exercise its "right to pre-emptive nuclear attack" Thursday.

"Now that the U.S. is set to light a fuse for a nuclear war, the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will exercise the right to a pre-emptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors and to defend the supreme interests of the country," the North's foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency. "The U.S. is massively deploying armed forces for aggression, including nuclear carrier task force and strategic bombers, enough to fight a nuclear war under the smokescreen of 'annual drills'."

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/07/17220065-un-passes-sanctio...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:23 | 3309318 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I thought Dennis Rodman ironed this out

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:25 | 3309322 DblAjent
DblAjent's picture

Obama bin Biden likes basketball, too!
Let's start there.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:29 | 3309327 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

chuckin' a spear or chuckin' a basketball-it's in the DNA

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:11 | 3309463 Pareto
Pareto's picture

if I +1 you, does that mean I'm going to hell?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:20 | 3309499 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Fuck you Berstinky

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:34 | 3312396 Dealyer Turdin
Dealyer Turdin's picture

Not that DNA.  There are people in rest homes with better pitching abilities.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:26 | 3309323 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Every time I look at Rodman, I think of those dolls with a string you pull and they "talk."  I want to pull one the rings in his nose or mouth and find out what he's gonna say.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:52 | 3309409 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As entertaining as that sounds, you really don't want to ever have to listen to him.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:16 | 3309483 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

True dat!!!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:31 | 3309335 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

monster job number tomorrow. 300k. They are going for the final big push to sucker in the sheep. There is always room for a few more lobster's in the pot.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:00 | 3309435 kito
kito's picture

fonz, as long as the water in the pot stays tepid, those lobsters are livin large......................everything going according to plan................dollar index staying above 80, the almighty DOW AT ALL TIME NEW HIGHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!........gold and silver prices going nowhere for the past 2 years, bond yields low and demand up....................housing prices and demand continue to rise.....................yes fonz, its good to be a lobster............................

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:53 | 3309411 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Strange times with this lack of participation, no clue how that even works.  Uncomfortable watching this stellar performance on zero volume.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:55 | 3309418 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

From my vantage point, this tape looks rather strange.

It just "feels" different today.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:37 | 3309556 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

ES is not my bag but by the sound of it some strings being pulled here.  Glad I'm all closed right now. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:47 | 3309588 Skyprince
Skyprince's picture

Split between two contracts--March and June...rollover today..

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:08 | 3309254 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stop trying to invest (gamble) with pirates in their own rigged casino! 'Invest' in tangible things you need.

I've been saying right here since 2 years ago the best possible thing you could 'invest' in was firearms and ammo...it's all up well over 100% now, even 200% and 300%....that is, if you can even find it at all today.

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:10 | 3309269 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I'll be waiting at the end of my drive tomorrow for the little brown truck to drive up and disgorge another 1000 of my commie caliber precious

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:29 | 3309329 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Unsound practices" creeping back in to 'investment markets'?... Say it isn't so!... My day is ruined!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:10 | 3309272 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I know 'down-voter', a lot of people were butt-hurt then, and are even more so now.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:43 | 3309364 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Stop paying attention to the down-voters. Concentrate on the positive instead. I am, for example, itching to witness the hype and rejoicing on this site when gold leaves $2000 behind. Is it coming soon, is all I wanna know.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:50 | 3309397 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I been hearing that one too for a long time.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:54 | 3309399 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I would expect it to dive down near the 200 dma line first, then take off (if the past is any guide).

Er.. make that the weekly MA.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:14 | 3309284 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

You're right. Here is my guide for investing:

If you don't use quant algorithims, are a HTF, or trade for a market maker (GS, JPM,etc) then you shouldn't playing the market. Just buy gold and thank me later.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:07 | 3309262 One of these is...
One of these is not like the others..'s picture

He is more amusing when he is recalling his experinces in the dope business...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:08 | 3309267 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Just because the savanah looks peaceful doesn't mean the packs of hyenas aren't waiting in the bush for the next kill.

Only one of them died in the last ambush of the Wildebeest herd and none were injured, they are stronger from feeding.

They are just waiting for enough fat Wildebeest to wander back to the water hole and loll their tongues in the water.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:16 | 3309293 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Apparently this 50 points tacked onto the DOW daily since going above all-time record bubble-top highs only costs us around $118 million/hour or $1/2billion+ per day, rounding down generously of course...hope you 'invest well' out there you're gonna need it. Sunshine, unicorns, lollipops, kettle korn, etc....

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:30 | 3309332 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

someone out there dislikes you

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:50 | 3309400 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's a lot of butthurtedness out there I guess.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 21:49 | 3310887 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

I love kettle korn!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:29 | 3309328 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

If I had a dollar for every time a shake-out was predicted for the hedge fund industry, I would have enough dollars to seed my own hedge fund.  These lizards always find a way to survive.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:13 | 3309470 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

I found out why many trust fund babies don't invest in PM's.   Their estates are structured in many cases so that they don't have much discretion at all in deciding what to do with their principle or basis.  I asked one of my trust fund buddies why he didn't take some money out of his estate and invest in some PMs.  He said that the way his estate is structured he isn't allowed to take money out and put it in riskier investments.  There are other trust fund babies that aren't so candid about their affairs.  They know that investing in PM's undermines their ponzi based inheritance.  Some of those guys are real pricks.  Silver bitchez

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:25 | 3309521 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Principal.

There. Corrected it for you.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:18 | 3309489 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

And on a long enough timeline, the chances of escaping the inactions of the banking actions WILL become zero.

Nevermind police, judiciary, court system.  When enough know the score, as that Italian fellow so bravely took a dive for yesterday, when enough know and wake up we will see open season.

Mark my words, take them to the fucking bank.  The survival rate for us all is an infinite timeline on our decisions (till a hundred years like).

Bankers and politicians, in this climate, is considerably less.  If you knowingly, and slept well on crushing the rest of us without a second thought, you will be found out.

You will pay accordingly boys.  Each and every action my friends, has an equal and oposite re-action.

Think on that.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:19 | 3309492 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You know there's a bubble. Someone let Dick Bove out. He looks a little cleaner without his toupee. Says BofA at $30 soon. The end is nigh.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:26 | 3309523 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I don't care who you are, you can't chart you're way out of this fucking mess. All roads lead to the end.   3, 2, 1...  or 3.21 you pick.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:27 | 3309524 observer007
observer007's picture

Paul Krugman bankrupt

 

pseudo-Keynesian economist Paul Krugman declared personal bankruptcy today - 8 Million debts....

Appartments, cars, Tiffany.

http://homment.com/sUPNQfpvxx

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:51 | 3309598 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Probably a hoax.

Too bad, eh?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 22:53 | 3309606 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Thank you for that. I so wish that it were true! I haven't laughed so hard in years either way.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:37 | 3309555 sitenine
sitenine's picture

How fucking hard is this? Cash out of paper, buy physical assets, and walk away. Fuck the hedge funds, fuck the pension funds, fuck 'em all!  There will be NO assets left worth the price of these heaping piles of fiat trash in the end. You can call it inflation if you want, but more simply it is a fact that resources CAN NOT BE PRINTED (paging Ben Fucking Bernank!)

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 21:47 | 3310883 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

You underestimate the allure of gambling...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 23:03 | 3311034 sitenine
sitenine's picture

No, not really. I understand better now just how we got to this unique point in our relatively short history. It makes sense to me that human nature is to try to keep 'a good thing' going, so we're going to roll for as long as we have the dice.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:04 | 3309663 Undecided
Undecided's picture

ok so rand gets a letter stating that they will not use drones on you unless you are attacking someone and now he is fine with it lol.  sure you can have your drones I just got my time in the spot light and some words on paper stating oh no we won't use drones on you lol.  what a joke whipe that letter on your ass.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 17:26 | 3310090 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture
Commit to active decision making

“even doing nothing is doing something” I.E - Cash is King

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 21:34 | 3310851 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

Remember 1969 thru 1981?

Recall the politician's responses.

It was a time of Stagflation.

The 'Bob Hope" generation entered their 'spend less-save more' life stage.  YOUR Parents!

It should be clear that the baby-boom is now in the same life-stage.

Not one Politician will admit they are helpless to restart Economic Growth! 

They will wait this thing out, just like before.

We must demand cuts in wasteful/stupid Government spending, to match cuts in government revenue.

btw, is this true?

Sprott spills the truth!  On Jan. 17 the Treasury Department reported its GAAP)-based budget deficit for 2013. It reported a $1.2 trillion ($1.2T) cash deficit, which is a measure of the change in the present value of future liabilities, such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments, and civil service pension plans, that the government must pay. In 2011, the total deficit was $5T. In 2012, it was $6.9T. Yet, Congress is haggling over how to save $100B. This is a $16T economy.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1248151-eric-sprott-central-bankers-are-gaming-gold

 

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