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One Word: "Brea(d)thless"
Another Friday, another green close (now ten in a row) as Treasuries suffer their biggest weekly yield rise in a year. Another new-er-er all-time nominal high for the Dow but Nasdaq was the winner on the week (+2.7%) against a cluster of the rest at +2.4%. Volume was sub-par at best, trade-size low, and market breadth diverged bearishly but that didn't matter. Financials, Consumer Discretionary (and builders) were the sectoral winners up around 4%. Away from stocks, things are moving quite seriously: the USD is up for 5 weeks in a row - its biggest 5-week run in 9 months (and highest in 9 months); WTI crude outperformed in commodities (despite the USD strength) back up to 6-week highs; JPY had its worst (which is good apparently) week in 23 months losing 2.5% against the USD back to almost 4-year lows; Silver and Gold had their best (and only positive) week in 5 weeks. Credit markets (like TSYs) played catch up and snapped tighter on the week (even though HYG tended to underperform). VIX did drift lower (-0.5 vols to 12.5%) but remains well north of where stocks would expect. The much-vaunted late-day ramp came as usual and lifted all the indices to their opening (post-NFP spike) highs. As a gentle reminder, the Dow is up 613 points in 9 days - that is all.
Bonds suffer biggest weekly yield jump in a year...
as Equities surge to new highs...back in the trend channel...
- accompanied by low and bearishly diverging volumes...
and TRIN...
VIX is moving ion the right direction but protection remains relatively bid...
as the VIX term structure shifts to its steepest this year...
Trannies recover but Nasdaq leads on the week...
Stocks got a little over-excited into the close and retraced back to where credit/rates/vol were trading...
And the relationship between cash bonds (dark red), the HY bond ETF (light red) and stocks (green) is 'interesting'...
Bonds and stocks recoupled but the USD didn't...
JPY weakness rules the carry risk-on game for now...
Just a whacky notion here but the weakness of breadth in equities suggest institutional selling - and VIX was well bid before this big jump - which makes us wonder if the big boys are actually unwinding their protection (hence small drip lower in VIX) and selling down their single-stock exposure into this surge.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: Financials have retraced 38.2% of their overall high to low loss... but seasonals are not in their favor...
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'Full-retard'....you never go there, but they did.
Simple Jack (2009) Full Extended Trailer - Official/High Quality - YouTube
In my uneducated opinion, the problem is that 99% of the country doesnt even have the slightest clue about economics. The remaining 1% is divided up this way: 10% of them understand the economy, are in control of it and manipulate it to their advantage. The other 90% (of the 1% paying attetion) are saying "What the fuck? This is all pure bullshit, unsustainable and the whole thing has gone "full retard".
So therein lies the problem. The public just doesnt understand what the fuck is happening to them. They are like sheep being led to the slaughter and that is why we call them sheep. Poor bastards.
Great summary. It sucks to be part of the 90% of the 1% doesn't it. I never get invited anywhere anymore, and my market prediction record is a total joke. And you're right, the public doesn't understand but they don't need to. They just haven't felt enough pain yet to get motivated, but they will. Look at Europe.
John Brunner wrote a great novel called, "The Sheep Look Up", but every time I see them, they're looking down at their iSores.
Another day of absolute diarrhea...
I don't know what's worse, this market or eating bad sushi and getting the shits for two weeks.
maybe its just me, but, i'm thinking eating bad sushi and getting the shits for two weeks ranks as one of the top things i don't really ever want to experience. A Dow Jones fuck fest......can handle that.
STAY AWAY FROM THE WHITE TUNA.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/first-horsemeat-trading-now-59-...
Lucky you, you don't have to choose.
While gold has done poorly vs. stocks in the past 13 months or so, I think the "trade of the year" will be "sell stocks, buy gold".
here here !
Obama administration using Computer-generated twitterbots .....
http://politicalvelcraft.org/2013/03/08/obama-regime-using-computer-gene...
I've heard of the "cyber-warriors for Obama project" but this is new......
New highs for Spoos next week baby #winning
Behind the scenes one wonders if they are shitting their pants. Retail was supposed to jump at these all time highs - and they did nothing - it just pissed them off. They can send the Dow to whatever number they like but they need to offload to retail and they are not coming.
With several ZH articles having 50.000+ reads and decreasing sheeple-buying power around the globe, what did you expect? Another creditcard cumshot?
I like to think of this as a good thing.
Knowledge is power. Pretty soon they are going to shut this site right the fuck down. Cant have the sheep turning into wolves now can we?
Shutting down ZH is shutting down the internet. Simultaniously physical gold will hit $1600. Per gram. It will be 'our' shtf moment. Sheeples shtf moment will hit after exactly 114 minutes.
As we digress into childhood make believe..........
Fake it till ya make it.....
or blow it all up
Mrs. Bingfa must live in constant fear ;)
LOL, She never leaves the house, she just huddles in the corner with her smart phone and her urine stained slippers.
She's a computer programer who's been working on scrambling drone signal technology.
"Yes, the Easter Bunny is real"
Ben Bernanke
PNC Closing up to 200 Branches.
http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2013/03/08/pnc-closing-up-to-200-branches.html
But hey all this employees who will lose jobs as a result are welcome to take temporary jobs as a Wal Mart Greeters and Burger Flippers as a second one. SO BLS can claim doubling new jobs
Think of the money they will save. Should be good for another 200+ points on the Dow.
Short TREASURIES BITCHEZ.
The money expansion was initially doing.
1. A devaluation as Dollars were used to buy foreign assets.
2. All money pumping in history follow the sequence. (Fullarton 1848)
a. Interest rates go down
b. Land goes up
c. All interest bearing securities (Equities) go up
and finally
d. it gets in teh circulation and commodities move up.
When we get in d. treasuries start to suffer. That steepen the curve and more money gets into the circulation.
This is not a credit driven expansion, it is a base money driven expansion, much much more infaltionary.
In 2 years, the 10 years Treasuries at 4%, the Fed would have stopped the QE and wondering about raising rates.
What is happening with Gold?
THe hyperinflationist are disappointed (it actually takes time to get there, Argentina is a template, not Weimar, even French revolution took 2 years.
It tooks from 1962 Vietnam base money expansion to result in 1982 Gold prices.!!!
The no clue people believe that we are back to ~normal~ they do not realize that this cycle is not driven by credit but by base money so it is much more inflationary.
SO BETWEEN THE HYPERINFLATIONISTS DISAPPOINTED AND THE NO CLUE PEOPLE NOT SEEING THE BEGINNING OF INFLATION, GOLD IS ~BAFFLED~
Sell your Gold when Fed Fund rates continue to rise while GDP starts to go lower, cover your short treasuries at that point (probably in 3 years). Wait for the economy to ahve a short term bottom and buy back your Gold and Short Treasuries, this for teh next 10-15 years.
As a hard core hyperinflationist, I am not disappointed. It was in the cards before the banking crisis required us to print for the banks, speeding the situation up. It was always the national debt that was the problem. The Fed has been buying Treasuries to support it for decades. And that cannot stop because we are in a sovereign debt crisis. And it isn't rates that matter with gold. Not at these prices anyway. In 1980 gold was over priced to even go back on a 100% gold standard. On a money supply ratio now, gold is no where near even a 25% money supply backing. People see it as up and they don't understand the measuring stick is moving and it is as cheap as it has ever been in US history.
I keep saying this. But, people are crazy not to be buying gold here on this pullback. I don't know what these guys are thinking who are selling it.
Simplistic.
No. I actually know a lot more about the subject. You saying rising rates have an effect on a gold bull market is simplistic. It has never ever happened in the history of finance. Not even when Volcker did it was that the reason gold stopped. Gold stopped because it went high enough to go back on a 100% gold standard. All Volcker did was cause a recession. High rates ALWAYS indicate a debt problem and a dying currency. That is why gold spiked while they were rising.
Checkmate?
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2013/02/checkmate.html
I actually agree on the pull back and buying Gold. I think people do not understand that we are not back to normal and that this expansion is going to be inflationary. THe reason we have a sell-off is that people associate Gold with permanent QE which is a mistake. As they doubt Gold go lower. The US will stop QE, but later we will have cash flow deficit at teh Central Bank, that is when you see capital controls, and hyperinflation. Much later.
Quin,
The fundamentals are on our side. This fake bullshit will not last forever.
Math and history are what they are. I have no doubt things will happen the same here as anywhere else.
Interesting. After a 3 pivot point sell-the-news opening collapse, followed by a "yes, this is real" rally, we get another noon mini-collapse before the expected (and quite obvious) late day ramp to produce the headline the glossy magazines wanted -- to be proudly poised on weekend shelves to entice the coffee crowd.
Question: can the big boys unload their troughs without tanking indices without retail (and associated institutional) rally-chasing ? I'm not sure. Did the jobs figures surprise even the big houses, with their 'experts'? Perhaps. I suppose if the mid-day sawtooth distribution declines we saw earlier this week continue, top-callers will feel more comfortable, while if we get big 10:15 pops each day next week that last until the typical 12:45 exhaustion point -- well, then even hardened bears have to suspect an 18% year is possible.
Is this the time to pass baton from PD to retail, or for everyone to hoard the fruits of capitalism like so many baseball cards and brightly colored marbles? Whatever occurs in the final months, 2013 will certainly be judged among the 21st century's most fascinating and elusive . . .
Yup, what happens to the FED, GS, JPM, Citi, WF and every bank when they're their only customers?
A lot of the boomer pension money is in the market....and is starting to come out to finance retirement. Just like Social Security....the feds gorged on the surplus for years, but now have to actually pay out more than is coming in (duh....guess they should have really invested in something?).
This is what will bring the house of cards down. Wall street is not fond of allowing the average person to make a living from their casino.
Opinion: No the jobs numbers did not surprise the big houses, the numbers are not real data they are goal seeked manipulations that the big houses have a hand in creating each month. When you have already lent (given) the PDs trillions illegally, breaking some SEC laws about data embargo is truly not worth considering.
They don't need to break data embargos to know that a recovery consisting of thousands of part-time McJobs won't lead to growth.
If we're rolling in cash, homeless people should be living in mansions. eminent domain. What happened to our favorite carpet bagger/squatter? http://www.ajc.com/news/news/national/squatter-takes-over-boca-raton-man...
Cash is not wealth. CAsh is a means of payment, wealth is the increase in real output per capita. Please do not confuse. If you increase the means of payment you do not increase the output, just increase the nominal amount of means of payment for the same amount or lower amount of goods and services.
I concur. You do realize that I was being facetious? Do you know what a carpet bagger is?
Teh Internets: Serious Business
Hey now, Dick Fuld is no squatter. His wife owns that place!
Breathless, wasn't that a Richard Gere movie, like from before he got caught putting rodents up his brown whistler hole?
Yes, a pitiable remake of the French New Wave classic film of Jean-Luc Godard (though I'm not ashamed to admit the presence of Valerie Kaprisky makes this lemon a sort of guilty pleasure, especially if watched largely with the sound off, save the inspired use of the Opening from Philip Glass's 'Glassworks' in the pool scene).
The only decent French movie ever made was "The Story of O."
The French just suck at everything.
While one abhors their politics, courage in the face of adversity and personal hygiene, one simply must admire the films of Carne, Demy, Bresson, Godard, early Malle, Melville, early Truffaut, Rohmer, Assayas, a few of Chabrol’s and Leconte’s, Kieslowski’s French language films, and the most underated: Sautet. Plus, there’s the piano music of Debussy, Satie, Faure and Ravel, the paintings of Renoir, Matisse and Courbet, etc., etc. But, you’re essentially correct, other than those few exceptions, they basically suck . . .
The feebleness of the French is so offending that it clouds my judgement about everything french. It is a regrettable character flaw that I posses. I try to be objective, rational, dispassionate as best I can, but, alas, I am not a cyborg (yet) and my human weakness still sometimes afflicts me.
Hell, I live in France. The women are the most beautiful in the world. Paris ditto. The food is the best in the world. The healthcare is amongst the best. OK, taxes are a bit high, but life's not bad.
You're right about the food and little else.
I'm not sure that low volumes indicate a bearish divergence in this new CB manipulated world. It only means that Kevin can ramp the market higher with less money. His boss has told him "Kevin, we can't keep borrowing and printing forever. We need to start doing more with less".
im really starting to wonder if we r ever going to see a red day in this market again?
this is beyond frustrating, knowing that a market is going up and up because the fed decides to pump an insane amount of money into the market, a number in which we have never seen.
if we were reaching these highs with a great economy, no qe intervention whatsoever, id be able to maybe enjoy it and be a part of it.
but with this amount of rigging, its nauseating.
people say penny stocks are frauds because aside from the companies bc fake( which they r obviously) but also because prices are manipulated easily.
well, how is that any more illegal than what is going on now, with blue chip companies being propped up so that bankers can make a ton of money. its all bull fucking shit and i hope it ends sooner than later.
Two words, FUCK YOU ben bernanke
No matter how many times I see, it never gets old.
I am not even an American but I feel for you guys, and for myself. I long to be able to dream, to bad the future seems very dark. Keep it up brother!
black swan right ahead.
Good article, but nothing here that wasn't predicted a thousand times at zh, including today's 14.4k Dow with (surprise surprise) financials leading the way.
Still low volume rallying and I'd only be concerned if that changed. It will mean mom and pops being suckered in for the Summer slaughter. Probably.
McClellan notes that neither GE nor copper are not confirming Dow strength. He thinks we're due a correction as early as March. Oh dear.
I feel like I'm at a New Years Eve Party that just won't end.
But, even the longest days only have 24 hrs, and someone is going to have to clean up afterwards.
But, with crystal meth, you can stay up for three days straight. Incoherent, smelly, and annoying...but awake!
That would explain a lot of the comments here.
O.T. Has http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ been droned?
We can only hope.
So this isn't a good time to get in the market?
I'd wait before you put on that short.