Payrolls Surge By 236,000 In February, Following Big Downward Revision, Unemployment Rate Slides To 7.7%
February payrolls rose by a whopping 236,000, much better than the 165,000 expected, and 1K higher than the highest Wall Street forecast of 235K. However this takes place as the January number was revised from 157K to 119K. The unemployment rate slides to 7.7%, on expectations of a 7.9%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since December of 2008. The civilian labor force dropped as usual from 63.6% to 63.5%. The household survey saw an increase of 170K jobs in February, following a 17K increase in January.
More details:
- Change in Private Payrolls: +246K, on Exp. 170K, last revised from 166K to 140k
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +14K on Exp. 9K, last revised from 4K to 12K
- Average hourly earnings M/M rose by 0.2%, and 2.1% Y/Y, in line with expectations
- Average hourly hours for all employees rose from 34.4 to 34.5
- Birth death adds 102K to the unadjusted number
Getting ever closer to that economic state where, like three times perviously, the Fed thought the economy was ready to stan on its own too wheels. How close: not very at all.
Visually:
More from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, with job gains in professional and business services, construction, and health care. In the prior 3 months, employment had risen by an average of 195,000
per month. (See table B-1.)
Professional and business services added 73,000 jobs in February; employment in the industry had changed little (+16,000) in January. In February, employment in administrative and support services, which includes employment services and services to buildings, rose by 44,000. Accounting and bookkeeping services added 11,000 jobs, and growth continued in computer systems design and in management and technical consulting services.
In February, employment in construction increased by 48,000. Since September, construction employment has risen by 151,000. In February, job growth occurred in specialty trade contractors, with this gain about equally split between residential (+17,000) and nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+15,000). Nonresidential building construction also added jobs (+6,000).
The health care industry continued to add jobs in February (+32,000). Within health care, there was a job gain of 14,000 in ambulatory health care services, which includes doctors' offices and outpatient care centers. Employment also increased over the month in nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000) and hospitals (+9,000).
Employment in the information industry increased over the month (+20,000), lifted by a large job gain in the motion picture and sound recording industry.
Employment continued to trend up in retail trade in February (+24,000). Retail trade has added 252,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Employment also continued to trend up over the month in food services and drinking places and in wholesale trade. Employment in other major industries showed little change over the month.
In February, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. The manufacturing workweek rose by 0.2 hour to 40.9 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2 hour to 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $23.82. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.1 percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $20.04. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from +196,000 to +219,000, and the change for January was revised from +157,000 to +119,000.
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Stars are aligning in the same formation as they were right before the market collapsed 5 years ago.
TOP, BITCHEZ!
The real economy is what we live in everyday.
Layoff/ Business Closing List
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-
We're not ready for reality.....just keep the DOW up so we can feel safe.
See? I was correct. Precious metals just crashed as I had expected. $1800 and $30 are just a pipe dream.
So do what I do. Buy some and throw it in the sock drawer.
It's an excellent day to flip fiat.
Tom Keene on Bloomberg radio said the 38000 downward revision is just a blip.
So the strategy is to revise the prior month downward and pull the revision into the current month. Got it.
They are confident that THIS time they are accurate.
So plus or minus say 30-40% and that should be the value?
What they are actually saying is that they cannot measure this "jobs added" and this is just another psycological technique used to make us believe they actually can control this shit.
Pull the other one.
pods
Transitory!
You just gotta believe!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=s62MrU8mHx4#t=126s
lol
Dear BLS,
What a crock of shite!
Yours Truly,
OutLookingForWork!
"We gots to keep Obama in President."
Really? Why do they bother to lie anymore? Who do they think believes this crap?
We'll never see $30 silver again. Go to a chart, lop off the 2008-2013 bubble, and you got your long-term price range for the white metal. Teens at best.
5 bucks to dig it up?
Eagen... I bet you stay up at night watching NORAD tracking Santa too...
You spoke too soon:
http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
Feel silly now?
They dropped for about five minutes, then snapped back up to where they were yesterday.
Exactly. Looks like eigenvalue got played. Probably shorted on that drop too, after his bias was confirmed.
Hiring of nurses, nursing home aids, and clerical unemployment workers..........all good
So...Fed "money" until Obamacare kicks in to save the market?
I hear the manufacture of shopping carts is on the verge of a real breakout...
True
Yeah, the BDI is pretty clear.
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Hard to tell what the BDI means any more.
I predick the collapse of the "fragile recovery" (that never really was) will be blamed on a terrorist strike.
SO no more QE ;)
That would seem to be the case but ben will come up with another mandate like QE til oil is at $50
QE until Paul, Hillary and I (Ben) shave our beards.
Exactly.
Ben must have a hardon. MEIN MACHINE, IT WORKED, WORKED!!! Or the numbers are just bullshit.
Heh
The market seems to be thinking the same thing, as futures are flat on the news of this blowout number. Just proves that Fed liquidity is more important to this market than unemployment.
Excellent point. Proof that the "markets" are driven by the forces of the supply of money rather than the actual demand and supply of the underlying good.
You hurt our feelings... :'( But you are right - we couldn't care less about the peasants starving, as long as the capital flows are unimpeded & ever-increasing.
No 'mo QE? :'( Sniff, sniff.
Well, there goes the pop, futures are now headed solidly higher. Funny it took a good 20 minutes for the market to remember that the Fed is going to print no matter what.
Blowout Number?
We have expectations told to us so that they can then exceed them and we call them great!
Here's a bit of reality:
We are 147k behind the jobs created for Jan and Feb 2012 so far.
Feb 2013 job creation:236k
Feb 2012 job Creation: 271k
We are going to exceed expectations all the way to 0. And then some.
I've made my call. Financial collapse in weeks, not months.
They are trying to invent a reason to stop QE without getting blamed for it.
This is what happens when one works for 1hr/week and is considered employed. I'm surprised they didn't come up with 400k jobs.
1) Ben wants out.
2) The insiders want the market in free-fall, since they're balls deep short.
3) What's more important: All the clueless plebs, following this data, will want in on the action with their puny retail accounts.
Can you spell TOP?
If the number of "investment" commercials I hear daily on the radio is any indicator, the sheep are being called in for a shearing.
pods
Has been thus since times immemorial, and presumably will continue to be.
I get that feeling too. I work for a private sector civil engineering firm, and we've done municipal/state work almost exclusively for the past 5 years. Before that, the vast majority of our clients were private development. Just last week, we had our first private development client since 2008.
When the correction occurs, the states and municipalities will have precious little money for projects, and I see the writing on the wall.
ekm;
It has been my pleasure to view your writings on fuel theory. There are many points within that make a great deal of sense. How ever, one point I would like to point out which is not a debate, just a friendly point to consider, being engaged in the bulk fuels sector, there seem to be 2 real sellers for every 10 real buyers "approx". I know your point on primary dealers has been made, this might be the reason for the discrepency.
I follow your thoughts on real economy compared to aggregate supply. A few areas of fuels sales that follow your theory are Jet A-1 Jet fuel and D-2 Diesel. Although supply is much easier to sell than to buy in "bulk." Do you feel this is all primary dealers taking the supply off the market?
I have really enjoyed following your writings on the subject, thank you.
Extremely humbled. Thx a lot.
http://www.brecorder.com/markets/energy/america/78965-the-qmissing-barre...
The link for you to enjoy.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2011/10/21/708441/the-power-of-the-dark-inven...
And this one.
Awesome, thank you for the link.
Within the article, there is a point that has came to mind while following your writings. I will post the paragraph from article below for comment. I also believe that the 08' crash was more geared to oil cost fracturing the economy along with dirivative chains, than real estate in the beginning of the so called crisis. Fuel input cost blew out service sectors bottom lines. Although both where very harmful.
With that said, do you think it is possible that the real economy traders/+.gov know the cause, thus stock piling additional fuels so they can release when needed to curb the pain when/as needed? The missing barrels might explain preparation to fight another crack prior to the bubble being blown, like now. The indexmundi.com price link below suggest a fight in the run up similar to the 08' high.
I know I'm stretching here but is it possible primary dealers or other large buyers are doing all they can do to off set another 08' price spike crunch through storage? Or are the storages just adding to the problem, controlling the supply/price? The positioning of Glencore on Russian crude/fuel supplies in Jan. may suggest the real economy is being starved for acceptable input priced fuels. To me, so far, it's a tricky call.
Thoughts ekm?
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=120
"Even if China's strategic stockpiling only began in earnest this year, it cannot account for even half of the 200 million barrel missing barrel figure."
As far as I know russians are not that great at respecting deals. I think that's a non deal for glencore.
All that prepurchased has to be sold to the suckers with futures before it is taken delivery, otherwise they'd be screwed.
Many answers:
1) Iran (possible) shock, hence stockpiling
2) Crude oil derivative collapses whcih would trigger other derivatives.
However, they can't do this for long and I think they're done doing this.
The economy is literally DEAD BY ENERGY STARVATION.
I can't see any chance of revival unless crude oil at $40 of lower for at least 6 months in a row. IT IS NATURALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
Hence two choices left:
- Save the financials by triggering food riots
- Kil commodities by sacrificing few primary dealers
Great points. Imho, I think you are spot on. Oil input cost has the economy against the wall, again.
Thank you for taking the time to share.
I designed a tank farm expansion in Cushing a few years ago. Big tanks. I've heard they are at capacity now. We also have several refineries in my state (OK), so the local economy is doing fair at the moment, and gas prices are around $3.40/Gallon.
Haul costs directly impact the cost of everything, and this generally isn't immediately apparent to the layperson. In 2006/2007 when gas prices went up, I saw a lot more interest in rail spur projects as the haul price was cheaper. Then, the prices went back down, and many of those projects were shelved. Now we've seen another round of rail spur projects emerge. The infrastructure cost isn't cheap.
I would imagine that rail traffic has increased slightly, but if it hasn't...it can't bode well for the overall state of the economy.
We need the input of people like you here on ZH.
Please keep contributing.
Same as with Bear Stearns, Lehman, MFG,
SACRIFICIAL LAMBS will be offered soon for burning in order to offer pleasing odour to the gods of finance.