• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Spot The Non-POMO Day

Tyler Durden's picture


While correlation is not causation (and money doesn't grow on trees), the following chart (of the Dow's performance from the open to 1130ET - the typical end of Fed's daily POMO) may help explain today's 'surprising' weakness (for now) from the open despite the 'goldilocks' data...



and while we are at it, it appears that volume/breadth is not confirming any of the recent strength...


Chart: Bloomberg

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:04 | 3312252 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Money does not grow on trees, but is magically created from their valuable pulp.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:12 | 3312291 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

POMO or no POMO, the FX markets are signalling BRIGHT RED to me. Whether that plays out inequities or not is a big question. On the other hand it looks like if the S&P hits 1600, Mr Buffett will be able to get out of his "insurance puts" safely ?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:23 | 3312346 malikai
malikai's picture

FX is mental today.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:28 | 3312366 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture


Spot the pattern in this chart?? Agreed correlation is not causation, but...

just sayin.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:31 | 3312385 Orly
Orly's picture

You know it's bad when you're reduced to "swing trading" a five minute chart.



Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:43 | 3312421 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"QE or not QE"...is that the question? Or is it all just in our mind...
I say that program goes nowhere for a VERY long time but we shall see...

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:54 | 3312451 Orly
Orly's picture

That's okay.  I had no idea I was pretty good at semi-scalping.  Always been the "Chahtist," you know.  Position trader.  Hmmmmm.

I found out pretty quick that if you're a position trader in this insane environment that you will get your head taken off by tripping stop after stop.

So, stick it on the five minute chart, use a zig zag with a depth of 14, two Bollinger bands (28,2...), (28, 3...) and you're all set.  Wait for the zigzag to paint between the Bollis and reverse the trade.  Pretty simple, actually.  Kinda scary, too...how simple it is, I mean.  Give the trade six candles to materialise, that's important.  If it's not doing what you thought it would after six candles, then get out.

Theoretically, this method would work well on all time-frames but not as long as Abe and Draghi and Bernanke are playing Jawbone Pong.  When they shut up, I may just get some rest.


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:29 | 3312376 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Inequities?" Why that's Wall St. middle name!


Typo of the day.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:05 | 3312257 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Why need a POMO when the fudged manipulated jobs number was supposed to provide the spark...unfortunately their plan is backfiring. They need an levered POMO EVERY day for April to keep this bloated pig up.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:08 | 3312271 Racer
Racer's picture

They thought they could get away with just the manipulated jobs... yeah sure, ha ha ha.

Just goes to show how fake this 'market' is

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:11 | 3312288 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

They knew the job numbers before they made the POMO schedule for March....thats because the number is fabricated, it dont matter what the real number is because 230k was their planned number.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:11 | 3312284 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Well they have POMO pretty much every day in March. Surprised the bears are not having more of go at it, as there isn't one today. I guess they have lost their balls, or their money, or both!  

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:29 | 3312375 Orly
Orly's picture

Waiting for the Europeans to get out so we can hand it to them.


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:31 | 3312383 rqb1
rqb1's picture

Orly, you still standing by your March 15th prediction?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:41 | 3312415 Orly
Orly's picture

About gold?  Dunno.  Don't remember the exact figure, though I know it was dowwwwwwwwnnnnn.

Let's have a look-see...

The weekly chart shows a nice, rounding bottom is taking shape over the long term...say, since August 2011.

The harmonics actually have gold as a buy right now and it may move toward the first resistance level in about four weeks time.  It is difficult to say exactly because I am still uncertain as to gold's reaction to any "risk-off" episodes but something drastic doesn't look to happen as long as the Fed has the pedal to the metal.

Also, barring any outright manipulations, the price of gold could reach between $1600-1624/oz.

Keep in mind that the USD is strengthening on the back of Pound Sterling and Euro weakness, which will lower the price relative to the dollar, so I'll say it will be closer to $1600 in four weeks time.

That's what the charts show today.


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:34 | 3312581 rqb1
rqb1's picture

Thanks.  My thoughts are that the western CBs are not going to pay retail for gold.  They will push the price as low as they can before they accumulate.

I think the real action will be in silver this year.  They just don't have the physical silver in storage.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:07 | 3312259 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

CNBC must have shuffled through it's entire stack of newsfeatures and found JBTFD has churned its way back into the first slot...

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:12 | 3312293 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

francis, what does JBTFD stand for, "Jew Big to Fail"???

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:22 | 3312309 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Just Buy The Fucking Dip


you must be one of those 'anti-SEMANTICS'

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:31 | 3312382 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well played.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:16 | 3312310 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

or a rayciss

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:06 | 3312263 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Buy electrons

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:33 | 3312393 rqb1
rqb1's picture

Short neutrons

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:09 | 3312270 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There are non-POMO days?!?!?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:31 | 3312386 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

All work and no play makes Kevin Henry a dull boy.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:44 | 3312417 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Yes, I believe that Tyler published a chart last week showing that there was one POMO-less day this month, today's it. Shorting The Market On These March Days Will Be Hazardous To Your Health I don't think that it's a coincidence that Ben filled this non-POMO with a huge NFP print. Shows how scared he is.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:59 | 3312465 Orly
Orly's picture

He sure looked like he was a-fitt'na hurl the other day...

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:09 | 3312275 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture


Fed would like to pull out & not get the bitch pregnant with a top.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:11 | 3312281 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Next Friday looks promising with up to 4.75B to be 'invested.'

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:00 | 3312468 chdwlch1
chdwlch1's picture

Yup, equity options expiry day I believe...also a big POMO day on the 28th for quarter ending expiry.  The banks must make their quarter!!!! 

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:11 | 3312286 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

don't worry...the japanese are coming and they will spend trillions of yen buying up US (and European and Asian) companies that have positive cash flow so they can service their massively escalating domestic debt.

we have cross border monetization now..what could possibly go wrong? it won't be the Fed that is monetizing, so it isn't QE!!!!

/sarc off and on and off and on

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:14 | 3312287 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Even more interesting is the lack of force to suppress gold today... maybe one day they will need to focus all of the daily pomo on just keeping gold contained ?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:24 | 3312357 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

you missed the monkey hammer straight down to 1560 and then a quick turn about to 1583....

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:12 | 3312292 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everytime the DOW makes a new high CNBS pushes an alert to my phone. It's sickening how desperate they are to pump this thing.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:26 | 3312363 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"There's never been a better time to buy!"

"There's never ever been a better time to buy!"

"There's never ever ever been a better time to buy! Pinkie swear!"

"For the love of God, why aren't you buying!!!!1!1!!1!"


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:56 | 3312888 auric1234
auric1234's picture

I think 2008 was a better time to buy.


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:18 | 3312308 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Meanwhile sterling imploding towards 1.49 and the euro comforably below 1.30. Yen at 96 and change. That's all going be good for Q1 earning in the US. Not!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:16 | 3312312 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

OBV... What a blast from the past with Joe Granville


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:16 | 3312316 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

the bears can never win. when they finally realize that and leave the casino then what happens next will be spectacular. but it seems like there are still plenty of people lining up to get decapitated.

looks like they set a nice pm trap today too.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:18 | 3312328 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Test run non-POMO day to see if a 'Spectacular News' alone could buoy markets....nope, not really.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:08 | 3312494 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

Certainly is a test run non-POMO day.

These past weeks have been like blowing hot air into a balloon every day and then once its .000005% away from exploding handing it to the next person and saying, "...here take a deepth breath and squeeze some more air into that sucker.  It's all good I promise it won't pop, not on my watch."

They should let the market dip 15-20% and then do a test run, I bet they would be surprised with the muppet support down there.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:09 | 3312496 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

crowded room and small exit.   all the banks buy and hold each day w/new $; trying to pass it along to retail.   as long as they stick to the plan and no tries to outmanouver the other "banks" (not dissimilar to the global currency devaluation cycle:  japan to china to euro to us, its currently euros turn, were up next after a 5% 'healthy correction' is whats in the playbook).    if one tries to make a quick dash first to look more 'profitable' it could get away from them.   they just need to keep their personal greed in check.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:22 | 3312340 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

And THAT is what makes ZH so cool.


Can you repost the chart after the close?


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:22 | 3312342 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

And THAT is what makes ZH so cool.


Can you repost the chart after the close?


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:42 | 3312418 adr
adr's picture

We pretty much have JP Morgan walking into the NYSE every day screaming out, "I bid $200 for US Steel."

If he's the only one buying, well he just got his price.


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 12:45 | 3312427 bbaez
bbaez's picture

Local economy on Dallas is on fire

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:05 | 3312483 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

very little housing bust bust due to TX home equity laws hence no 'lost wealth'; energy infrastructure.     now choose a market that has financial services and real estate infrastructure, like the state of florida, but there is a new need for per diem drywallers currently, and fha underwriters with a low level of u/w loan defaults

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 16:45 | 3313191 Eugene9876
Eugene9876's picture

agreed regarding Dallas. Bought a house in 2010 in Preston Hollow, smaller houses nearby are selling for 200k more this spring. God bless Texas.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:31 | 3312801 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

If you went short at SPY 15.30 - ish you nailed the top this morning.

155.60 IS THE TOP for this move.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!