Spot The Non-POMO Day

Tyler Durden's picture

While correlation is not causation (and money doesn't grow on trees), the following chart (of the Dow's performance from the open to 1130ET - the typical end of Fed's daily POMO) may help explain today's 'surprising' weakness (for now) from the open despite the 'goldilocks' data...



and while we are at it, it appears that volume/breadth is not confirming any of the recent strength...


Chart: Bloomberg

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Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Money does not grow on trees, but is magically created from their valuable pulp.

whatsinaname's picture

POMO or no POMO, the FX markets are signalling BRIGHT RED to me. Whether that plays out inequities or not is a big question. On the other hand it looks like if the S&P hits 1600, Mr Buffett will be able to get out of his "insurance puts" safely ?

El Viejo's picture

Spot the pattern in this chart?? Agreed correlation is not causation, but...

just sayin.

Orly's picture

You know it's bad when you're reduced to "swing trading" a five minute chart.



disabledvet's picture

"QE or not QE" that the question? Or is it all just in our mind...
I say that program goes nowhere for a VERY long time but we shall see...

Orly's picture

That's okay.  I had no idea I was pretty good at semi-scalping.  Always been the "Chahtist," you know.  Position trader.  Hmmmmm.

I found out pretty quick that if you're a position trader in this insane environment that you will get your head taken off by tripping stop after stop.

So, stick it on the five minute chart, use a zig zag with a depth of 14, two Bollinger bands (28,2...), (28, 3...) and you're all set.  Wait for the zigzag to paint between the Bollis and reverse the trade.  Pretty simple, actually.  Kinda scary, simple it is, I mean.  Give the trade six candles to materialise, that's important.  If it's not doing what you thought it would after six candles, then get out.

Theoretically, this method would work well on all time-frames but not as long as Abe and Draghi and Bernanke are playing Jawbone Pong.  When they shut up, I may just get some rest.


NotApplicable's picture

"Inequities?" Why that's Wall St. middle name!


Typo of the day.

Divided States of America's picture

Why need a POMO when the fudged manipulated jobs number was supposed to provide the spark...unfortunately their plan is backfiring. They need an levered POMO EVERY day for April to keep this bloated pig up.

Racer's picture

They thought they could get away with just the manipulated jobs... yeah sure, ha ha ha.

Just goes to show how fake this 'market' is

Divided States of America's picture

They knew the job numbers before they made the POMO schedule for March....thats because the number is fabricated, it dont matter what the real number is because 230k was their planned number.

mdtrader's picture

Well they have POMO pretty much every day in March. Surprised the bears are not having more of go at it, as there isn't one today. I guess they have lost their balls, or their money, or both!  

Orly's picture

Waiting for the Europeans to get out so we can hand it to them.


rqb1's picture

Orly, you still standing by your March 15th prediction?

Orly's picture

About gold?  Dunno.  Don't remember the exact figure, though I know it was dowwwwwwwwnnnnn.

Let's have a look-see...

The weekly chart shows a nice, rounding bottom is taking shape over the long term...say, since August 2011.

The harmonics actually have gold as a buy right now and it may move toward the first resistance level in about four weeks time.  It is difficult to say exactly because I am still uncertain as to gold's reaction to any "risk-off" episodes but something drastic doesn't look to happen as long as the Fed has the pedal to the metal.

Also, barring any outright manipulations, the price of gold could reach between $1600-1624/oz.

Keep in mind that the USD is strengthening on the back of Pound Sterling and Euro weakness, which will lower the price relative to the dollar, so I'll say it will be closer to $1600 in four weeks time.

That's what the charts show today.


rqb1's picture

Thanks.  My thoughts are that the western CBs are not going to pay retail for gold.  They will push the price as low as they can before they accumulate.

I think the real action will be in silver this year.  They just don't have the physical silver in storage.

francis_sawyer's picture

CNBC must have shuffled through it's entire stack of newsfeatures and found JBTFD has churned its way back into the first slot...

Divided States of America's picture

francis, what does JBTFD stand for, "Jew Big to Fail"???

LawsofPhysics's picture

There are non-POMO days?!?!?

NotApplicable's picture

All work and no play makes Kevin Henry a dull boy.

Village Smithy's picture

Yes, I believe that Tyler published a chart last week showing that there was one POMO-less day this month, today's it. Shorting The Market On These March Days Will Be Hazardous To Your Health I don't think that it's a coincidence that Ben filled this non-POMO with a huge NFP print. Shows how scared he is.

Orly's picture

He sure looked like he was a-fitt'na hurl the other day...

Edward Fiatski's picture

Fed would like to pull out & not get the bitch pregnant with a top.

lasvegaspersona's picture

Next Friday looks promising with up to 4.75B to be 'invested.'

chdwlch1's picture

Yup, equity options expiry day I believe...also a big POMO day on the 28th for quarter ending expiry.  The banks must make their quarter!!!! 

hooligan2009's picture

don't worry...the japanese are coming and they will spend trillions of yen buying up US (and European and Asian) companies that have positive cash flow so they can service their massively escalating domestic debt.

we have cross border monetization now..what could possibly go wrong? it won't be the Fed that is monetizing, so it isn't QE!!!!

/sarc off and on and off and on

scatterbrains's picture

Even more interesting is the lack of force to suppress gold today... maybe one day they will need to focus all of the daily pomo on just keeping gold contained ?

SmallerGovNow2's picture

you missed the monkey hammer straight down to 1560 and then a quick turn about to 1583....

Dr. Engali's picture

Everytime the DOW makes a new high CNBS pushes an alert to my phone. It's sickening how desperate they are to pump this thing.

McMolotov's picture

"There's never been a better time to buy!"

"There's never ever been a better time to buy!"

"There's never ever ever been a better time to buy! Pinkie swear!"

"For the love of God, why aren't you buying!!!!1!1!!1!"


auric1234's picture

I think 2008 was a better time to buy.


mdtrader's picture

Meanwhile sterling imploding towards 1.49 and the euro comforably below 1.30. Yen at 96 and change. That's all going be good for Q1 earning in the US. Not!

fonzannoon's picture

the bears can never win. when they finally realize that and leave the casino then what happens next will be spectacular. but it seems like there are still plenty of people lining up to get decapitated.

looks like they set a nice pm trap today too.

SheepDog-One's picture

Test run non-POMO day to see if a 'Spectacular News' alone could buoy markets....nope, not really.

Dr_Lucid's picture

Certainly is a test run non-POMO day.

These past weeks have been like blowing hot air into a balloon every day and then once its .000005% away from exploding handing it to the next person and saying, " take a deepth breath and squeeze some more air into that sucker.  It's all good I promise it won't pop, not on my watch."

They should let the market dip 15-20% and then do a test run, I bet they would be surprised with the muppet support down there.

1eyedman's picture

crowded room and small exit.   all the banks buy and hold each day w/new $; trying to pass it along to retail.   as long as they stick to the plan and no tries to outmanouver the other "banks" (not dissimilar to the global currency devaluation cycle:  japan to china to euro to us, its currently euros turn, were up next after a 5% 'healthy correction' is whats in the playbook).    if one tries to make a quick dash first to look more 'profitable' it could get away from them.   they just need to keep their personal greed in check.

Jacque Itch's picture

And THAT is what makes ZH so cool.


Can you repost the chart after the close?


Jacque Itch's picture

And THAT is what makes ZH so cool.


Can you repost the chart after the close?


adr's picture

We pretty much have JP Morgan walking into the NYSE every day screaming out, "I bid $200 for US Steel."

If he's the only one buying, well he just got his price.


bbaez's picture

Local economy on Dallas is on fire

1eyedman's picture

very little housing bust bust due to TX home equity laws hence no 'lost wealth'; energy infrastructure.     now choose a market that has financial services and real estate infrastructure, like the state of florida, but there is a new need for per diem drywallers currently, and fha underwriters with a low level of u/w loan defaults

Eugene9876's picture

agreed regarding Dallas. Bought a house in 2010 in Preston Hollow, smaller houses nearby are selling for 200k more this spring. God bless Texas.

Hongcha's picture

If you went short at SPY 15.30 - ish you nailed the top this morning.

155.60 IS THE TOP for this move.