What A Difference For Jobs $1.2 Trillion In Debt Makes

Tyler Durden's picture


The media's ecstatic read through of today's Nonfarm payroll beat can barely end: after all, a print of 236,000 on expectations of 165K, why that has to be great. Well, it is. Until one looks to the number from February 2012, which happens to be 271,000.

And even the Keynesians will agree that February follows January, which in 2013 was a downward revised 119,000. January 2012? 311,000. Which in turn happened just as Europe was fixed again - after all who can forget the LTRO euphoria (and what happened after).

In other words, the first two months of 2012 saw a 582,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In 2013: 355,000. But something else happened between February 29, 2012 and February 28, 2013... Oh yes, the US government issued some $1,198,397,883,967.30 in debt. Oh, and the Fed monetized about half of this amount, and virtually all of the Treasurys issued to the right of the ZIRP period (i.e., risky debt).

To summarize: $1.2 trillion in debt buys the US.... 61% of the jobs created a year ago. But at least the Dow Jones is at an all time high.

Who else can hardly contain their excitement at what the jobs number a year from today will reveal that yet another $1.2 trillion in debt will do to the US job market...

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Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:03 | 3312474 Sach Mahoney
Sach Mahoney's picture

Mainstream media will never report this or any other truth, so therefore its did not happen, nor will it happen.  

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:23 | 3312547 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

But, but, but, you are increase chocolate rations!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:26 | 3312558 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Trea-sec: "If you have to look at it that way..."

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:30 | 3312587 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is like to see Bankster behind bar, see if everything is still look same to Bankster now!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:59 | 3312676 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Tyler, such a pessimist.  Always killing my SSRI buzz with his sense and logic. 

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:23 | 3312773 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Suggest high proof vodka for alternative buzz. Also good for alternative fuel.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:34 | 3312808 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

QE to infinity...why not just print more and hand it to the government to pay off its debt?  Why not just print more and hand it out to those who figure that $60,000 a year from the government is as good as it gets.  The central bankers and politicians should be put against a wall and shot, with wads of cash!  They are building the biggest and laziest entitlment culture the world has ever seen...and all they wrroy about is covering up one lie after another.


Question for Mr. Bernanke:  Does a healthy economy need $85 billion of money pumped into it every month?  What measurable increase in economic conditions give you reason to believe the conditons for QE to stop will happen in out lifetimes?  Do you shop for your own groceries? Do you pump your own gas?  When you look in the mirror what do you see?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:43 | 3312832 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Lemme splain sumpin 2 ya pal.

This isnt about fixing the economy.  This isnt about growth.  This isnt about creating jobs.  This isnt about "doing right by the folks".

This is about power and control (period).

You need to divorce yourself from the belief that people "in government" are good people there to do good things for the good of the country but are just kinda dumb and cant figure it out but their intentions are good so we should all keep supporting them.

Fuck them.  They are bad people doing bad things for bad reasons in order to hurt you, your family and the rest of your loved ones.  They hate you.  They would be happy if you died and are actually working toward that end.  They are your enemy.  I dont mean your figurative enemy either. I mean they are your enemy and they want you dead.  They want your children dead.  They think of you as a disease on their planet and you have to be wiped out.

Is that clear?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 15:07 | 3312924 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

... as vodka

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 15:25 | 3312973 economics9698
economics9698's picture

There most likely is one more monetary expansion before it implodes.  I think it is March 2013 to August 2013.

Yes that is right, this will be a short lived expansion, so get your finances in order and sell your shit to the Muppets.

It could be June/December, whatever it will be short lived, trust me.

Take advantage, dumb the house, stocks, and get into physical metals, farms, shit that will ride out inflation or deflation. 

These monetary expansions are like labor contractions, they get shorter and shorter as time moves forward.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 16:59 | 3313244 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

If cannot is afford PMs, Boris is to suggest Vodka and Bullets, maybe plasma, because it not is to end pretty.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:26 | 3312562 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Victory Gin (or vodka, in your case) for everyone.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:29 | 3312580 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Keep hands off Boris' vodka!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 15:38 | 3313002 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Is to Boris not vodka to share with comrades?

Running dog of capitalism hordes flask of vodka/MIG degreaser.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 17:00 | 3313250 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is to teach lesson of Soviet economy. Means of production is own by people. Means of destruction is own by government. But keep your FIJCKING mitts off Boris' vodka!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:28 | 3312575 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Correction - we are less reduce chocolate rations, but same as increase, no!?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 22:56 | 3314076 mkhs
mkhs's picture

No. We are in austerity regime.  There will be an increase, but it will be less than expected. Always, in the words of the great leader, forward (but not as much as was hoped or promised).

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:11 | 3312730 Seer
Seer's picture

BTW- that's imitation chocolate... hedonics, don't forget the real forces behind our markets...

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:20 | 3312755 markovchainey
markovchainey's picture

Exactly...it's actually a fist full of crap, but hedonically adjusted it's Godiva.  Enjoy!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 15:10 | 3312930 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Chocolate is not real!? Is contain titanium? Horsemeat? Escolar? Maybe this explain is why USA is subject of uncontrolled anal leakage (aka QE)?

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:56 | 3312886 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Increased Choco rations! Double plus good!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:33 | 3312593 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

$1.2 Trillion in 2013 IF we don't go into recession...  If we go into recession you can expect to continue the trend of increased debt and lower employment.  

Next Jan/Fed:  20K jobs and $2.2T more debt?  

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:43 | 3312643 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Sure.. they will just “do whatever it takes” to borrow their way to nominal prosperity.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:13 | 3312737 Seer
Seer's picture

I really think that it must be pretty hard for all TPTB to carry this load.  I'm thinking that they've GOT to get the people involved!  Time for a Fed-eral Works Project, we get everyone to pitch in and operate the printing presses!  100% employment AND plenty of money- problems solved!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:35 | 3312610 natronic
natronic's picture

Nothing to see here..........move along

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:36 | 3312613 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I won't tell you what to do, but I'm buying AAPL with my unemployment checks.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:15 | 3312739 Seer
Seer's picture

So, YOU'RE the ONE who is keeping AAPL from completely collapsing?  I was hoping to have it drop more so that I could... NO!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:59 | 3312675 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

That's only $5,279,285.83 per job - Bullish!!!!

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:06 | 3312712 candyman
candyman's picture

Didn't you know that journalisim majors must pass the Dan Rather school of fact checking class in order to graduate.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:06 | 3312715 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

And actually, the debt added is much more, this only includes Treasury debt, not the burgeoning Agency debt.  And it didn't really buy anything, total wage income is still below 2007.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:16 | 3312743 Seer
Seer's picture


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:03 | 3312475 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture



Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:05 | 3312487 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture



But since I'm no longer in paper assets I will pull up my kilt at stocks, and go longer gold...

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:13 | 3312509 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Unemployment has to go down to 6.5% for the Feds to start raising rates soon. Once unemployment magically hits 6.5%, the feds will start raising rates again. They are in a hurry to accomplish this. We will start seeing the feds raise rates by the end of summer. Everyone is in a hurry to meet their target. The stock market is hurrying upward to withstand the plunge ones the Feds start raising rates, the BLS fudge is in a hurry to make unemployment go down to 6.5 %. Every damn fudge machinery is in overdrive to meet their targets. The illusion of order and reasoning has to be maintained

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:33 | 3312599 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Rates is never go down, not for Federal Reserve Discount Window. Nothing but is magic to make unemployment goes down in Keynesian Land, but bigger issue is to Duration Mismatch. Cannot is lend long, borrow short and stay solvent with increase in interest rate for primary dealer and too big to jail bank.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:55 | 3312667 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You tell economy is like stuffed turkey with no thanksgiving?


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:23 | 3312771 Seer
Seer's picture

The economy IS a turkey.  It is WE who are stuffed.  And, thanksgiving has been canceled...  If you look around you'll see that it's Xmas that's coming, what, with all those Fatmans (1%-ers) out there running around...  Good cheer to all (whom are, or course, deemed acceptable).

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:33 | 3312600 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The instant the fed raises rates, EVERYTHING blows up.

TINA told me so.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:11 | 3312505 Confundido
Confundido's picture


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:14 | 3312513 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Gonna sound like a broken record here but this is ongoing trend is interesting.

So far today

volume for jan 2014 SLV calls = 45,693

volume for jan 2014 SLV puts = 200

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:19 | 3312528 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

when it gets to about 2.3% on the 10yr you better step away.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:41 | 3312634 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Agreed...  2.3% before it turns down along with stocks...  I would not be surprized to see the 10yr down near or below 1% by the end of the year... That's when we can finally short the bond market, the biggest bubble in the history of the world (although Japan needs to pop first so the world can see the horror of an imploding bond market).  Japan pops, people flee to safety in the US (yields head south), then they realize the US is in the same boat, panic accelerates...  Could be Europe first, but Japan is further down the road...  

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:23 | 3312543 From A West Tex...
From A West Texas Desk's picture

Honey!    Pack a couple of Extra-Bags.    We MIGHT be taking an Extended-Trip.




Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:03 | 3312476 chdwlch1
chdwlch1's picture

Need moar POMO...bitchez.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:03 | 3312478 DOT
DOT's picture


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:04 | 3312480 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I suppose Health Care and Education are making up most new jobs. As population rises, these two rise. And tax dollars pay for much of the spending in these two areas. So YES. 1.2 trillion can buy some jobs.


Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:23 | 3312544 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I suppose Health Care and Education are making up most new jobs. As population rises, these two rise.

I'm long the "crematorium/mortuary index" on that same logic. 

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 14:29 | 3312791 Seer
Seer's picture

"I'm long the "crematorium/mortuary index" on that same logic. "

Well, people ought to hurry up and die before all their pension money dries up and this isn't an option...  Nature, the top model in efficiency, says that composting is what we'll be seeing...

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:05 | 3312486 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks Tyler, not only was the last Feb jobs number big but the 10 year treasury was higher too. Same shit, different year. The only difference is equities are higher.

Fri, 03/08/2013 - 13:18 | 3312522 FoeHammer
FoeHammer's picture

Burn the economy to save the economy. Equity camouflage is weaksauce- We'll know for sure when enough natural observers look in the box, though.


Edit:Can't spell...lol

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